Some historical trends from the Washington Independent:
I consulted University of Georgia political scientist Charles Bullock, who co-wrote the definitive book on the subject, to confirm his study of runoff elections. Overall, whoever places first in a primary wins the runoff 71.8 percent of the time. (So far, looking good for Lincoln.) Things are even better for a Senate primary specifically — the Senate primary leader wins the runoff about 77 percent of the time. (Lt. Gov. Bill Halter beware.)
Not so fast. The odds of winning drop significantly when an incumbent is involved. If the incumbent is the leader in a primary race, he or she wins just 55 percent of the time. The premise behind this is if a voter is willing to vote against the incumbent once, the voter’s more likely to do it again in the runoff.
But that 55 percent applies to all primary races — and last night’s vote was a particularly close one. In an email, Bullock wrote that there are two factors important in the outcome of a runoff: the primary leader’s margin and whether the race is for statewide office. As of this morning, it appeared that Lincoln’s lead was two percentage points or less. The fact that it’s a statewide race means her prospects are even dimmer. So her chances are, by historical standards, likely considerably lower than 55 percent.
The last big Senate primary runoff in Arkansas featured a 1/3 dropoff in turnout, and that was an open seat. How many of Lincoln's supporters will go to the trouble of turnout out again for the unpopular incumbent? And labor's turnout machine -- having proven itself on Tuesday -- will still be around to re-turn out Halter's supporters.
p.s. We have raised $41,000 raised and counting since Tuesday night. I get it -- after hearing endless talk about how doomed we were in November, Tuesday showed us that the American voter isn't quite as ready to throw in with the GOP. If we fight hard and engage, we can stem losses, upgrade the quality of our own party, and deliver a dehabilitating blow to the GOP. Remember -- if they don't meet expectations in November, it won't be because the Teabaggers took over their party, but because they were still not conservative enough. The further Right they move, the further out of the mainstream they'll be.
All that to say, we've got a real challenge ahead of us, so it's definitely time to reengage. I've upped our post-election fundraising goal to 3,250 contributors. Please help us empower our hero candidates and take a shot against the segregationist Rand Paul and the corporatist sellout Blanche Lincoln.