Welcome to the weekend, political junkies. I know you all have been waiting with anticipation for a preview of the Idaho primaries coming up this week. Alas, it is not to be.
What we do have, however, is Rasmussen going batshit crazy. I'd love to lay down some political wagers using Rasmussen as the oddsmaker. Anyone want to take Rand Paul (R-KY) and lay me the 25 points?!
There is also a little bit of non-Ras news to digest and enjoy. It all adds up to an infinitely entertaining, albeit quite short, edition of the weekend Wrap.
THE U.S. SENATE
IL-Sen: Kirk's military self-description raises eyebrows
In the wake of the NYT/Richard Blumenthal kerfluffle, one has to wonder if exaggeration of credentials will be a bipartisan issue. Illinois GOP nominee Mark Kirk is a military reservist, and one with a fairly high-ranking position in the realm of intelligence. It is something Kirk has, understandably, been quick to point out as a political asset. But he might be guilty of some embellishment, according to an article yesterday in Politico. Kirk boasted at a meeting of experts on US-China relations that "I command the War Room at the Pentagon." The word "command" is the one that apparently gets Kirk in the trouble, because according to the Politico piece, that war room is commanded by no less than a one-star general.
THE U.S. HOUSE
HI-01: Reasonably high turnout greets all-mail special election
More than half of the registered voters in Hawaii's First Congressional district have now returned ballots in the special election to replace Democrat Neal Abercrombie. We will now within hours the results of that election, in which Republican Charles Djou is favored to reap the benefits of the unusual election format to a victory. Hawaiian election law requires a special election to contain all candidates, regardless of party, with the top vote-getter winning the seat. Because there were two top-tier Democrats (Ed Case and Colleen Hanabusa), Djou will likely be the beneficiary from that format. Therefore, the statistic to watch as the best indicator for November might well be the combined Case/Hanabusa vote versus the vote for Djou. Djou might have hurt himself in that regard by arrogantly proclaiming last week that the race "was basically over". Turnout has increased from 38% to just over 50% in the past week, possibly propelled by Djou's premature declaration of victory.
PA-07: No Indie spoiler for the Dems in bid to hold Sestak seat
Democrats in the suburban 7th district got some good news, and some bad news, in the wake of the primary elections. Clearly, the nomination of Joe Sestak, who hails from the district, will be of some benefit to Democratic nominee Bryan Lentz. But Republican Pat Meehan got some good news at the end of the week, as conservative former TV anchor Dawn Stensland ultimately decided against an Independent bid for Congress. There remains one teabagger-affiliated Independent in the field (Jim Schneller), but he lacks the name recognition than Stensland would have had.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
AZ-Gov: New GOP candidate enters field with unique stand
The GOP primary for Governor of Arizona is crowded enough that a single candidate, especially one with little name recognition or money, should not attract much attention. There is one thing that makes thirty-something Matthew Jette to stand apart, however: he is the only Republican running for office who opposes the new Arizona immigration law. He figures that this might give him a window to win the race, since the rest of the GOP field is unified in their support of the bill. Of course, even if he collects all of the GOP opponents to the immigration law, what percent of the vote will that yield for the political newcomer?
THE RAS-A-PALOOZA
Obviously, Tuesday had a profound effect on Rasmussen. Holy push-back, Batman! The House of Ras has Arkansas Republican John Boozman up around 30, Rand Paul up 25, and both Tom Corbett and Jan Brewer up 13.
And...heck...I don't want to see Blanche Lincoln make it out of the runoff, but if she does, I'd love to place a bet on her, if Boozman is really favored by 38 points.
AZ-Gov: Gov. Jan Brewer (R) 52%, Terry Goddard (D) 39%
AZ-Gov: Buz Mills (R) 45%, Terry Goddard (D) 38%
AZ-Gov: Dean Martin (R) 41%, Terry Goddard (D) 40%
AZ-Gov: Terry Goddard (D) 42%, John Munger (R) 41%
AR-Sen: John Boozman (R) 66%, Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) 28%
AR-Sen: John Boozman (R) 60%, Bill Halter (D) 33%
ND-AL: Rick Berg (R) 52%, Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D) 43%
PA-Gov: Tom Corbett (R) 49%, Dan Onorato (D) 36%
SC-Gov (D): Vincent Sheheen 30%, Jim Rex 22%, Robert Ford 4%