Earlier, I posted on Gallup's noting of a shrinking enthusiasm gap, with less R enthusiasm but steady D (Democrats still trail by 10, but that's down from 19 a month ago.)
Republican registered voters' enthusiasm about voting in this year's midterm elections has declined significantly in recent weeks. As a result, Republicans' advantage over Democrats on this measure has shrunk from 19 points in early April to 10 points in the latest weekly aggregate.
Put more bluntly:
A new Washington Post-ABC News poll indicates that the tea party's gain is mostly the GOP's loss: the percentages of Americans seeing the Democratic Party as the most in sync with their values and as the most empathetic are about the same as in November, while the numbers siding with the GOP have dropped by nearly identical numbers now identifying with the tea party in these areas.
Where's all that missing enthusiasm going? Not where it helps Republicans. From the WaPo:
The conservative "tea party" movement appeals almost exclusively to supporters of the Republican Party, bolstering the view that the tea party divides the GOP even as it has energized its base.
Of course it appeals exclusively to supporters of the Republican Party. They are the Republican party, the ones unhappy with John McCain but delighted with Sarah Palin. Because of that, these numbers will make perfect sense:
Overall, the tea party remains divisive, with 27 percent of those polled saying they're supportive but about as many, 24 percent, opposed. Supporters overwhelmingly identify themselves as Republicans or GOP-leaning independents; opponents are even more heavily Democratic. The new movement is also relatively small, with 8 percent of supporters claiming to be "active participants" -- about 2 percent of the total population.
But from a political standpoint, the most important cleavage is within the Republican Party.
The percentage of people who say the Democratic Party represents their personal values and is in tune with the problems of people like themselves hasn't changed since November. The percentage siding with the GOP, however, has dropped by almost precisely the numbers now siding with the tea party.
A small, but vocal and divisive group, much more anti- than pro-anything, unwilling to come to grips with the fact that their hero George Bush got us in this mess, and happy to vote for a more conservative candidate over the establishment nominee. We saw that in recent primaries, but there are not enough Tea Party voters (see above) to topple the establishment (MCain still leads J.D. Hayworth in AZ, for example.)
On the one hand, they are way smaller than the credulous media makes them out to be. On the other, what disruption they bring is likely to be on the R side. And — since their enthusiasm is always cited — if their chosen candidates continue to lose, we'll have to see if the enthusiasm they bring has anything to do with who is actually running in November on the Republican ticket. They aren't voting for Democrats, ever, but whether they will crawl over broken glass for McCain and his pals remains to be seen.
So what's the problem with that?
But the GOP may also face problems appealing to the middle, with independents who lean Republican particularly intrigued by the tea party movement. Late last year, 81 percent of GOP-leaning independents said the Republican Party better represented their values; now just 36 percent do, with the drop off all moving to the tea party (42 percent in this group now says the tea party best reflects their values).
Be glad the election isn't held today. Democrats have a ton of work to do to mitigate the anti-incumbency wave, but the improving economy and increasingly nasty teabagger split on the GOP side (Rand Paul, anyone?) and within the Tea Party the Paulite-Palinite divisions are still major roadbloacks to a Republican majority in the House.
Can they overcome the barriers? Maybe, but it will be despite the tea party, not because of it.