It looks like Dean is playing the Kerry role now. He is sharpening his message, and people think that he is dead. This is where he does his best. Now people are saying that he has to win somewhere on Feb. 3 to stay alive. I would beg to differ because of the dynamic of the race, even though I want a win.
So it looks like Edwards and Clark will battle to the death in SC, with Kerry coming along and hoping to put them both away. It looks like the same in Oklahoma. AZ and NM are all up for grabs, with Dean's best chance to win being in NM. Who knows what is happening in ND and DE. It looks like Kerry will get Missouri on pure momentum and institutional support.
What do these states all have in common? Dean has the organization on the ground and has campaigned hard for a year (with the exception of Delaware, which he hasn't visited yet). Yes, I know, I can hear it now, "That didn't help him in Iowa and NH." This is true, even if it is a narrow view of things, considering that Dean was pretty much in Kucinich territory a year ago. The point is that Dean is the only one who can and will compete in all of these states. Thus, he is the only one who will pick up delegates in all of these states.
Why is this important? Because even without a win, he can win 25%-40% of the delegates just by breaking the 15% line everywhere. Not all candidates will do this everywhere, so Dean will get at least25% of the delegates just by getting 15% of the vote.
Thus, Dean doesn't need to win as much as he needs to place strong in every state, and this is possible. He will be slightly behind Kerry in the delegate count, but ahead of Edwards and Clark, even if they win states. There will be all of the crap about him not winning yet, but there may also be stuff about how he showed strongly all over the country.
This will set him up for Michigan, Washington, and Wisconsin, and if he wins there, then it is on to Super Tuesday. This is the strength of Dean, because he has support and can place or show all over the country. He can kill Edwards and Clark with a thousand paper cuts, wait until Kerry is tired and beaten up when he gets all the attacks, and then knock him out. This is the power of the Grassroots, not the ability to win in Iowa (with all their old people) and NH (with all Kennedy wantabes).
At least this is what I hope.