On this quite busy Thursday, there is much to be learned on the ol' Wrap.
For example:
- Confronting an angry group that was the victims of your biggest campaign gaffe can often lead to absolutely priceless video. (Just ask Minnesota GOP gubernatorial nominee Tom Emmer)
- One ethically challenged GOP incumbent Senator is falling to pieces (and even the punditocracy is starting to take notice)
- All of a sudden, every pollster seems to care about next week's competitive GOP gubernatorial primary in Georgia (and your guess at who's leading is as good as theirs)
All this (and more!) in the Thursday edition of the Wrap...
THE U.S. SENATE
KS-Sen: Moran claims huge lead in primary internal poll
The showdown between Congressmen Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt to claim the GOP Senate nomination in Kansas may not be such a showdown at all, if a new internal poll for Moran is to be believed. The poll, conducted this week for Moran by Public Opinion Strategies, shows the western Kansas Congressman ahead of the Wichita-based Tiahrt by a 56-24 margin. Tiahrt got a high-profile booster this week, though, as Kansas City Chiefs Offensive Coordinator (and former Notre Dame HC) Charlie Weis will appear on his behalf.
LA-Sen: Is Vitter's star waning? Cook thinks so
Charlie Cook has been so bearish on Democratic chances this year that this actually merits inclusion in the Wrap: the electoral pundit has downgraded the chances of GOP incumbent David Vitter. What was once a race that was "Likely Republican" in the eyes of the Cooker is down to "Leans Republican". The next rung on the ladder, for the uninitiated, would be "Toss Up." The Melancon campaign themselves has taken note of the change, throwing together a pretty solid video which lays out how Vitter's decline has been largely self-inflicted.
NV-Sen: Is Chamber headed to the sidelines again?
Having already likely lost the support of the NRA, Republican nominee Sharron Angle might also not be able to count on the support of another nominal Republican ally in her battle with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. The Chamber of Commerce is weighing whether or not they want to get involved in the Nevada Senate race. As with the NRA, the CoC is wondering aloud if getting Angle in is worth ushering in the Durbin era or the Schumer era in the United States Senate.
WV-Sen: Appointment to come tomorrow; GOP picture not clear
The appointment by Governor Joe Manchin to replace the late Robert Byrd is scheduled to take place tomorrow, with a swearing-in ceremony next week. Speculation continues to swirl about the identity of the appointee, but a new name surfaced overnight: Gaston Caperton. Caperton, who served as Governor during the 1990s, is currently the head of the College Board (scourge of high school juniors everywhere). It was long believed that he wasn't interested in the appointment, but he made clear in an interview with WV journalist Jill Lawrence that he would give it "serious consideration" were he to be asked.
Meanwhile, the GOP picture might not be as clear as previously thought, even if Shelley Moore Capito does decide to take the plunge. A two-time statewide candidate, wealthy businessman John Raese, sounds like he is raring to go. In discussing the race, he seemed to make it awfully clear that Capito's interest in the race wasn't a factor for him, as he thinks he can beat her by attacking her from the right.
WI-Sen: Feingold finds an opening--hammers Johnson on oil
Candidates can often wait an entire campaign waiting for an opening to get after their opponent. Republican Ron Johnson seems to have gift-wrapped an opening for Senator Russ Feingold a little early. Feingold has crafted an ad based on Johnson's dodgy-but-affirmative answer about drilling for oil anywhere in the continental US, even in the Great Lakes. You can see the ad here. The Wisconsin Democratic Party is also flinging punches, pulling together an online petition asking Johnson to divest himself of the quarter-million plus he owns in BP stock, and donate it to a victim's compensation fund. A clever gambit, indeed.
THE U.S. HOUSE
AZ-08: Challenger's internal poll says pickup in desert is possible
Democrat Gabrielle Giffords has won both of his races in the swing 8th Congressional district in Arizona by double digits. However, if a new poll conducted for the campaign of Republican rival Jonathan Paton is to be believed, she is in a real coin flip this time around. The poll, conducted by the Tarrance Group, shows Paton with a lead of a single point over Giffords (45-44). Paton is going to have to expend resources in a late primary, however, so he could find himself badly bruised before he even faces Giffords.
KS-04: Potential shocker as leading Dem recruit trails in primary
This poll has to be a pretty chilling one for the DCCC: one of their best-funded and most impressive recruits, state legislator Raj Goyle, trails by four points (40-36) in a SUSA poll of the August primary. His opponent is a relatively unknown retiree named Robert Tillman. Goyle, wisely, has taken to the air early, in an effort to avoid becoming the next Vic Rawl of the 2010 cycle. On the GOP side, the race is (as it has always been) a two-candidate sprint, with Mike Pompeo leading Wink Hartman by a single point (32-31). State Senator Jean Schodorf is a distant third at 16% of the vote.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
AZ-Gov: Telling profile of last challenger standing in GOP Gov race
If anyone wondered why I anointed Governor Jan Brewer as the GOP nominee in Arizona last night (after the news that businessman Buz Mills chose to shutter his campaign), this interesting profile will help explain it. It is a profile of one Matthew Jette, the thirty-something businessman who is the sole Republican challenger remaining to incumbent Jan Brewer in next month's Arizona primaries. Jette hits all the GOP hot spots, except one huge one--he is running as an opponent of SB 1070. Best line of the story--one attendee at a Jette speech, upon his explanation for his opposition to the controversial immigration bill, quipped: "And he was doing so well, too."
CT-Gov: Dems look strong for November pickup in Nutmeg State
Republicans have held the governorship of Connecticut for eons, it seems, but that streak looks likely to stop at the end of this year, according to a new Quinnipiac poll in the state. Ned Lamont has big leads over either ambassador Thomas Foley (45-33) or Lt. Governor Michael Fedele (49-27). Former Stamford mayor Dan Malloy also holds double-digit leads over both Foley (44-33) and Fedele (49-26). GOP businessman Oz Griebel lies even further behind Lamont and Malloy, according to the poll. The Q poll also explored the primaries, as well. The Democratic primary is actually reasonably competitive: Lamont leads Malloy by a nine-point margin (46-37). Meanwhile, the GOP primary is a blowout: Foley leads with 48%, while Fedele (13%) and Griebel (7%) are way behind.
GA-Gov: Who's leading for the GOP? Depends on who you ask
In a sign of how volatile the Republican primary in the Peach State truly is, consider how incredibly disparate the results are from a pair of new polls that were released today. Insider Advantage followed up their poll from last week with new numbers, which continue to show Secretary of State Karen Handel out front with 24% of the vote. Congressman Nathan Deal (16%) and Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine (15%) are locked in a tight battle for the second spot in the likely runoff, while Eric Johnson is not far behind (13%), either. Meanwhile, the crew at Mason Dixon goes in an entirely different direction. They have Oxendine with a modest lead, beating Handel by a 31%-23% margin. They have Deal running in the third spot at 18% of the vote, with Johnson well behind at 6% of the vote. While I-A seemed to stay out of the Democratic primary, Mason Dixon takes it head-on. They have former Governor Roy Barnes lapping the field with 54% of the vote. Attorney General Thurbert Baker is a distant second, scoring 20% of the vote.
MD-Gov: Ehrlich won't get Palin. That's OK--he doesn't want Palin
This is pretty darned telling: likely GOP nominee Robert Ehrlich says that you should not expect to see luminaries like Sarah Palin stumping on his behalf. And, in fact, that is just the way he wants it. Ehrlich says he prefers smaller, more intimate gatherings, and posits that rallies featuring party megastars are underwhelming because "You can’t hear. People get bored and they leave."
MN-Gov: Emmer gets a tip from irate service workers
Something tells me a campaign plan didn't quite come together for Minnesota Republican gubernatorial nominee Tom Emmer. You might recall that the conservative Emmer found himself in hot water for advocating a "tip credit" which would allow employers in service-based jobs to deduct tip income from wages, allowing said employers to pay below minimum wage. In an act of damage control, Emmer attempted this week to do a town hall meeting with waiters and other service employees. It was there where Emmer got quite the tip, in the form of several hundred pennies hurled at him from a jar, which came to a crash right in front of the shocked politico's face. It is worth clicking the link to see the video, trust me.
TX-Gov: White beats incumbent in fundraising race
He is close in the polls, and it looks like Democratic nominee and former Houston Mayor Bill White is holding his own against Republican incumbent Rick Perry in another key category--the money chase. Figures made available today showed that White raised $7.4 million in the latest reporting period, leading Perry (who lagged just behind with $7.1 million). White, at $9 million, also leads Perry in cash-on-hand ($5.8 million), the by-product of Perry's bruising primary against Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison.
THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA
The House of Ras surprises for the second or third time this week. This time, it is their surprising shift in the open-seat Senate race in Delaware, long thought to be a lock for Republican Congressman Mike Castle. Not so fast--even the House of Ras sees that a lead that was once twenty-five points has been cut more than half. The Ras-sies also join Mason Dixon and I-A in looking at the Georgia gubernatorial primary (a rarity, by the way--Rasmussen polling a race that is right around the corner), and they also cast an eye at a trio of races that are on everyone's radar screen: California Governor, Texas Governor, and Wisconsin Senate.
CA-Gov: Meg Whitman (R) 47%, Jerry Brown (D) 46%
DE-Sen: Mike Castle (R) 47%, Chris Coons (D) 36%
GA-Gov (R): Nathan Deal 25%, Karen Handel 25%, John Oxendine 20%, Eric Johnson 13%
TX-Gov: Gov. Rick Perry (R) 50%, Bill White (D) 41%
WI-Sen: Ron Johnson (R) 47%, Sen. Russ Feingold (D) 46%
WI-Sen: Sen. Russ Feingold (D) 51%, Dave Westlake (R) 37%