Those numbers are based on 175,000 interviews Gallup has done between January and June 2010. It shows much of what we already know to be true -- that the Northeast and West are Democratic bastions, while the Mormon Belt and the Plain States are a Republican bastion. The South should be redder -- there are still scores of Dixiecrats skewing these numbers. For example, Oklahoma gave McCain his biggest victory in 2008 (bigger than Utah or Idaho!), and yet many of its voters still pretend to be Democratic.
But in states like Virginia and North Carolina, the growth of the creative class (in the Research Triangle and NoVa) are legitimately turning those once-Red states into competitive battlegrounds.
On the plus side, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin are all still Blue, despite crushing economic conditions in the region. Same with Nevada. That's key given the key races all those states are hosting this year. The Chef's hat and face (MN and IA, respectively) are cause for concern. Its belly, Missouri, is living up to its eternal reputation as a key battleground. Arkansas and Lousiana, once solidly Democratic states, are trending the other way. Also positively, the top 10 Democratic states include Connecticut, California, Illinois, and Delaware -- all states in which Republicans hope to make gains in the Senate.
The four closest battleground states -- those with partisan identification gaps of less than one percent -- are Colorado, Mississippi, Missouri and Virginia. Mississippi is fake parity (ie Dixiecrats). The others are real.
Now the bad news -- Democratic performance has slipped since 2008. Pretty dramatically, in fact.
Classification of States Based on Party Identification
2008 2009 2010 (so far)
Solid Democratic 30 24 14
Lean Democrat 6 10 9
Competitive 10 12 16
Leaning Republican 1 1 5
Solid Republican 4 4 7
This is what that old map looked like:
I liked that map much better.
Here's the overall data:
National Party Identification Trends
2008 2009 2010 (so far)
Democratic or Leaning Dem 52 49 44
Republican or Leaning Rep 40 41 40
Independent or DK/Refused 8 10 16
Once again, Republicans have gained nothing. They're stuck with their 40 percent, unable to broaden their appeal and reach. Its Democrats who have faltered significantly, failing to deliver on campaign promises, and coddling members of their caucus more concerned with the health of Wall Street bonuses than in improving the lives of all Americans.