PPP. 8/14-15. Likely voters. MoE 4.1% (6/12-13 results)
Alexi Giannoulias (D) 37 (31)
Mark Kirk (R) 35 (30)
LeAlan Jones (G) 9 (14)
Undecided 19 (24)
Tom Jensen:
In a race pitting two of the weakest Senate candidates in the country Alexi Giannoulias continues to hold a small lead over Mark Kirk, 37-35, with Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones pulling 9%. Voters in the heavily Democratic state it seems would narrowly prefer a Democratic candidate they don't like to a Republican candidate they don't like.
Kirk does have a big lead with independents, 36-20. But you can't win as a Republican in Illinois without winning over a fair number of Democratic voters and Kirk just isn't doing that right now. He's getting only 5%. Kirk's getting 74% of the Republican vote while Giannoulias is getting 72% of the Democratic vote and it's going to be very hard for Kirk to win unless the party unity gap ends up being bigger than that.
Both candidates continue to be very unpopular. Giannoulias' favorability is 26/42 and Kirk's is 26/34. Independents have a negative opinion of both of them, and each of them is viewed more unfavorably by voters of the opposite party than they are favorably by their own party base. Only 51% of Democrats have a favorable opinion of Giannoulias and just 49% of Republicans have a favorable opinion of Kirk so neither contender is doing much to fire up even their partisans.
These polls results are premised on an extremely depressed Democratic electorate. Those surveyed report having voted for Barack Obama by only 9 points, in contrast to his actual 26 point victory in the state in 2008.
As Jensen points out, the fact that Giannoulias maintains a lead over Kirk is evidence of the tremendous weakness of Kirk as a candidate, given the communications challenges that have been faced by Giannoulias and his campaign team. Kirk is one of the few NRSC-backed candidates to win a seriously contested GOP primary, but he hasn't escaped the GOP's curse with terrible Senate nominees. (Kirk's problem has been lies about his own personal history and military record, not Paul-Angle-Buck wingnuttery.)
Giannoulias appears to be picking up support from the Green Party candidate, perhaps partly because he's campaign has recently begun emphasizing progressive themes like his support for creating a progressive caucus in the Senate and the need for filibuster reform. If he can continue consolidating progressives behind his campaign -- and generate some more enthusiasm from Obama voters -- he may prove to be too much of a challenge for Mark Kirk to handle, given the extent of Kirk's self-inflicted damage.