It's entirely likely that the only accomplishment the Senate will have this week, the last one before taking the remainder of August off to campaign back home, will be confirming Elena Kagan to the Supreme Court. The debate begins today, with a vote expected on Thursday or Friday. It's also likely to be the only real defeat the NRA experiences this Congress.
In a call to supporters to urge senators to vote no, the NRA compares Kagan to President Obama's last court pick, Sonia Sotomayor, who seemed to back the Second Amendment in confirmation hearings but who later voted against it in a test case. "Last year, Sonia Sotomayor deliberately misled the American people by claiming she believed it was 'settled law' that the Second Amendment protected an individual right to keep and bear arms. This year, she proved she never really believed that by ruling against the Second Amendment in McDonald v. City of Chicago," says the gun lobby. "Now, Elena Kagan has used the same phrases—'settled law' and 'precedent'—to describe her view of the Second Amendment in the hearings. It is critical that the members of the U.S. Senate not fall for the same trick twice!"
They're a bit late, though they might have gotten to Ben Nelson, who has vague "concerns" that his constituents back home are "concerned" about Kagan. Thus far, Nelson is the only Democrat to announce his opposition to her. Five Republicans (Collins, Graham, Gregg, Lugar, Snowe) have announced their support.
How will this compare to the most recent SCOTUS confirmation votes? The NYT Caucus Blog reviews just that.
Ms. Kagan, the solicitor general, is expected to be confirmed by a slightly narrower margin than Justice Sonia Sotomayor, whose nomination was approved last year by a vote of 68 to 31....
While nine Senate Republicans voted for Ms. Sotomayor, only five have said they plan to support Ms. Kagan so far. And while Democrats were unanimous in supporting Ms. Sotomayor, Senator Ben Nelson, Democrat of Nebraska, has said he will vote against Ms. Kagan.
That leaves Ms. Kagan likely to win confirmation with more support than Justice Samuel A. Alito, who was confirmed 58 to 42, and Justice Clarence Thomas, who was confirmed 52 to 48, but less than everyone else on the high court.
The toxic political environment, and the election just a few months away, a higher vote threshold is unlikely. That vote count shouldn't be a reflection on Kagan's qualifications, or--as was the case of Thomas and Alito--Senators' real concern with her ideological extremity. She's very unlikely to be as far to the left as Thomas and Alito are to the right.