Rasmussen is moving Alaska from solid GOP to lean GOP following Joe Miller's primary defeat of Sen. Lisa Murkowski.
Their first poll in the Alaska Senate race (grain of salt as usual) has Miller with just a 6 point lead over Dem Scott McAdams, 50-44.
Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate and two percent (2%) are undecided.
This survey was conducted Tuesday night just hours after incumbent GOP Senator Lisa Murkowski conceded the Republican nomination during a recount of the August 24 primary. Miller, a lawyer and military veteran, benefited from support from the state’s former governor Sarah Palin and Tea Party activists.
Ninety percent (90%) of Democrats back McAdams while 79% of Republicans throw their vote behind Miller. McAdams holds a 22-point lead among voters not affiliated with either major political party.
That's pretty low undecides for this early and two relative unknowns, though Alaska is small enough (population-wise, anyway) that any politician is going to have a fairly high degree of name recognition.
The NRSC released a poll that has Miller leading 52-36. That one was conducted over last weekend. At the same time, PPP was in the field and found an 8 point difference, Miller over McAdams 47-39. Murkowski was included in both polls.
Here's where it gets interesting, taking Murkowski out of the mix and considering that she has as of yet declined to endorse Miller, leaving it at “no comment” for the moment. PPP did some exit polling in Alaska among Republicans, finding
Only 18% of Alaska Republicans identify themselves as Tea Party members but Miller won them by an 80-20 margin, enough to make up for Murkowski's 63-37 lead with ones who don't actively identify with the movement....
Joe Miller's victory was driven by conservatives who think their party and more specifically Lisa Murkowski have gotten too liberal. Tea Party identification in Alaska is actually not that high, but Miller's advantage with that group was so overwhelming it gave him the win. Palin's endorsement certainly helped Miller and it's unlikely he could have won without it, but it doesn't appear to have been the driving force in his upset.
The very bad blood built up between Miller and Murkowski in the past week could come back to bite him with non-Tea Party Republicans and fence-sitters (few though they may be). From what we've seen of Miller so far--the attacks on Murkowski, on the NRSC--it doesn't seem like he's going to be making nice with the establishment Republicans. McAdams is going to have to hit this guy hard and drive his already high unfavorables (52 percent, according to PPP) up among disaffected Murkowski supporters.