Saturday opinion.
Aaron Blake:
Former World Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon (R) spent $454 of her own money on each vote she got in her Connecticut primary win last month, making her campaign the most expensive per-vote in the country during a primary season rife with self-funders.
Self-funders are now running in top governor and Senate race in Connecticut, California, Wisconsin, Florida and New York. What that means is lots of personal money spent, and especially in the primary season, that money was spent on a pretty small pool of voters.
According to numbers crunched by The Fix (and available in a handy, sortable chart here), McMahon led all self-funders by spending $27 million of her own money on less than 60,000 votes in the sparsely attended Nutmeg State GOP primary on Aug. 10.
And she still trails.
David C. Wilson:
Christine O'Donnell's win over the long tenured U.S. Representative Mike Castle, 53% to 47% (+6% points), might have been a shocker to most, but what really happened, and what most observers missed, was that turnout was higher than normal in lower Delaware (Kent and Sussex Counties), and average in upper Delaware (New Castle County).
Polls underestimated these levels for most of the campaign, and thus, missed the trend. Plus, the lack of in-state polling provided no clues about the sources and substance of information that mobilized voters. It turns out that lower Delaware counties, which are traditionally Republican, are losing their liberal and moderate appeal. It suggests that the GOP leadership may not be in as much touch as they think with their constituents. And, questions abound about the ability of existing state GOP leadership's ability to mobilize support given the shock of the O'Donnell win. In sum, evidence points to a geo-political realignment of the GOP within Delaware.
But as Brendan Nyhan has pointed out, it represents 3% of the vote (50K). More...
Coons has been leading in the polls in all head to head match-ups against O'Donnell. And, in the general election, O'Donnell will have to convince independent voters, moderate Republicans, and Castle supporters that she will represent their interests. This will be an uphill battle given that she's already indicated that she feels she can win without "them" referring to the Republican Party Organization, and suggesting the GOP might be too lazy to help her.
All of this bodes well for Coons who will certainly win the Wilmington area, and much of the Wilmington suburbs which make up the largest portion of the state's electorate. But it's tough to gauge Democratic turnout in the state because Coons did not have a primary challenger, and thus we cannot use primary numbers as an indicator of enthusiasm.
It's all about turnout, in Delaware and everywhere else.
Michael Gerson:
In Tea Party theory, inexperience is itself seen as a kind of qualification. People like O'Donnell are actually preferable to people like Rove, because they haven't been tainted by public trust or actual achievement. This is the attitude of the adolescent -- the belief that the world began on their thirteenth birthday. It is also a sign of childish political thought.
Establishment conservatives are not happy, despite what David Brooks (The Backlash Myth) thinks.
Nate Silver:
It is important to maintain some perspective here: Republicans are poised to make very substantial gains in the House. They are favored to take control the chamber, and have a 40 percent chance of winning a net of at least 50 seats, and about a 20 percent chance of winning at least 60 seats.
Still, as the results of this week’s primaries perhaps suggested, there remains considerable uncertainty — and ambiguity — in the forecast. A 95 percent confidence interval on our projections would encompass everything from a Republican gain of 78 seats to a gain of just 12. Although that interval will narrow some before Election Day, there’s still a lot of campaigning — and poll-watching — left to do.
Ezra Klein:
The White House held a conference call today for Elizabeth Warren and various bloggers and writers. Most of it was what you'd expect, but Warren did mention that Rep. Barney Frank once told her that getting a Consumer Financial Protection Bureau was a "pipe dream."
I think some people will see that as a mark against Frank, but he was right, at least judging by Washington's record over the previous 20 or 30 years. In fact, a lot of the Obama administration's accomplishments were pipe dreams.
A near-universal health-care system? Why would Obama and the Democrats succeed when Truman, Nixon, Carter, and Clinton had all failed, and politicians as adept as FDR and LBJ refused to even make the attempt? They've seen the numbers, right? The health-care industry is bigger now, and richer, and there are no more liberal Republicans. There's no way.
The list goes on...
Dana Milbank:
Sorry to interrupt the anti-establishment violence, but could we pause long enough to ask a question: What is this "Republican establishment" of which you speak?
Though it has become a stock storyline to describe besieged party bosses, those peddling this account have largely created a straw man. The Republican establishment of popular imagination, like the Georgetown salon, no longer exists. If there is a Republican establishment, the Tea Party is it.
The "civil war" McKinnon and others describe implies that party leaders are fighting back. Instead, they're stepping out in front of the Tea Party parade and pretending to be drum majors.
Who in the supposed Republican establishment has opposed the Tea Party?
Start with Mitch McConnell, who didn't want Rand Paul. Add those supporting Murkowski (AK), Bennett (UT), Inglis (SC), Castle (DE). See Gerson's post (above) in Milbank's own paper. Throw in Karl Rove on Castle (you'd have to live on another planet to miss that), and you have just another example of Milbank getting it wrong. But then again, the Villagers take everything they are told at face value. What? It's Milbank being snarky? Doubtful.