The Field Research Organization released ballot initiative findings from its latest Field Poll (PDF) this morning, and it's good, if not great news.
Three important ballot initiatives are looking good:
- Marijuana legalization? (Prop 19) : Yes: 49%, No: 42%
- Suspend environmental regulations? (Prop 23) : No: 45%, Yes: 34%
- Pass a budget with a simple majority? (Prop 25) : Yes: 46%, No: 30%
We're talking good, not great news, because
- none of the questions is sitting with an absolute majority
- since the last Field Poll was taken in July, support for Prop 25 has gone way down, from 65% to 46%, while the percentage in opposition has gone up, from 20% to 30%. (Still, it is a solid lead).
- since July, opposition to Prop 23 has actually dropped, from 48% to 45%. (Support also dropped by 2%, the percentage of undecided voters went up).
Of special significance is the fact that the polling on Proposition 19 has flipped since July. Back then the Field Poll had Marijuana legalization trailing by 4%; that's an 11% shift in favor in two months.
Also 84% of those polled have seen or heard about Proposition 19, while less than 40% were aware of Proposition 23 or 25.
According to the Official Ballot,
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Proposition 19 Legalizes marijuana under California but not Federal law. Permits local governments to regulat and tax commercial production, distribution and sale of marijuana. Allows people 21 year old or older to possess, cultivate or transport marijuana for personal use.
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Proposition 23 Suspends implementation of air pollution control law (AB 32) requiring major sources of emissions to report and reduce greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming, until unemployment drops to 5.5% or less for full year.
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Proposition 25 Changes legislative vote requirement to pass budge and budget-related legislation from two-thirds to a simple majority. Retains two-thirds requirement for taxes.
Proposition 19 is an important initiative both for California and the nation. Passage would signal the first serious attempt to halt the nation's absurd drug war, and likely lead to other initiatives in other states. It will also raise badly needed revenue in California, where unemployment is still at record levels (moe than 12%) and the state's coffers are in serious need of a boost, to the tune of twenty billion dollars at last estimate.
Proposition 23 will also send a strong signal to companies and the nation: even in times of serious economic distress, the public is not willing to let environmental regulation slide. It's time corporate America realizes this and stops throwing money at initiatives designed to thwart environmentally sound policies, and stops lobbying against similar legislation in Congress.
Proposition 25 is desperately needed. The California budget process is a disaster, and has been a disaster for a long time. California is the only state in the Union which requires both a 2/3rds supermajority to pass a budget and to raise taxes. It's gotten to the point where no one even cares any more whether a budget is passed. This year's budget is still not in existence, and is later than at any other time in the State's history. The fact that 1/3rd of the legislature can effectively grind the State to a halt and force it to pay its debts in IOU's is simply ridiculous. And people seem to have finally realized it.