Not gonna happen, according to a US census expert...
Census expert: MN won't lose a seat in Congress
Posted at 5:02 PM on September 26, 2010 by Tom Scheck (0 Comments)
Filed under: Campaign 2010, Minnesota Governor, U.S. House, U.S. House
A new study based on projected Census population figures shows Minnesota will likely keep all eight of its current U-S house seats.
The 435 U-S house seats are divided between states based on population. Last year, estimates projected Minnesota to lose a congressional seat to Missouri. But Kimball Brace of Virginia-based Election Data Services says the new estimates show Missouri will instead likely lose a seat to Minnesota.
The possibility that Bachmann might lose her seat due to post-census redistricting is regularly raised on this blog and others.
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The two most common questions raised here are "how could anybody in Minnesota possibly vote for her?" and "isn't it true that she's going to lose her seat to redistricting?"
The second question was always one that was tough to answer. The first time I heard that "Bachmann might lose her seat to redistricting" was shortly after Bachmann's election to Congress in 2006. But the issue was raised more often after Bachmann urged Americans not to participate in the census (because the government could use the data to round them up and put them in camps.)
The prospect was appealing because the irony, and the wishful thinking of voters who understand that Bachmann's a nut. But it doesn't look like it's going to happen.
Nonetheless, articles like this one in tonight's New York Times continue to hold out the tantalizing hope...
Likely Losses of House Seats in Midwest Stir Partisan Feuds
By MONICA DAVEY
Published: September 28, 2010
CHICAGO — Whatever the outcome of the fall elections, one political loser this year seems certain: the Midwest.
State population tallies, to be revealed at the end of December, are expected to show that in the coming reapportionment of Congress, seats will be lost across this region — in Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio and perhaps, experts say, Minnesota or Missouri...
...Amid fiercely competitive campaigns in Minnesota, too, Republicans have been warning that state Democrats — if they hold onto both chambers of the State Legislature and win away the governor’s mansion — are quietly scheming to delete the district of Representative Michele Bachmann, a conservative Republican who started a Tea Party caucus on Capitol Hill. Ms. Bachmann is known for her outspoken, unflinching (and often televised) remarks on abortion, health care, big spending and big government.
...she's also know for circulating crazy conspiracy theories and for having a perfect eleven-out-of-eleven record on lying at the fact checking Politifact blog. But I guess that didn't show up in the NYT's reporter's "research" for this article. I don't understand why the reporter bothered to get quotes from pro and anti Bachmann political activists, but not from census experts who think that loss of Bachmann's seat via redistricting was unlikely.
Nonetheless, this meme continues to circulate. That's not good, because it distracts some voters from the need to do some heavy lifting, if they want her out of office before she makes her way on to a GOP White House ticket.
Bachmann's successful career has been both an inspiration and a spur to the careers of a host of other nuts who have penetrated the GOP and made their way into the political life of the nation. That's why it was always critical to stop her; not just this election cycle, but in all the previous ones, too. If you're a nut and you see that Michele Bachmann can rise to the top without serious opposition from the media, floating all kinds of hateful militia-style claims--why can't you do the same, you nut, you? Why shouldn't big money interests that back the GOP throw money at you, too--if nuts like Bachmann can command national fan clubs by sowing hatred and paranoia?
It's not just Bachmann, you see. Joe McCarthy, down in hell, is smiling these days.
The NYT article from tonight:
http://www.nytimes.com/...
The census expert, at MPR's commendable Capitol View news blog:
http://minnesota.publicradio.org/...
ACTION LINK: If we don't stop Michele, she and her imitators go higher. That was always true, Michele opened the door for them and a defeat for her in November would go a long way toward closing it.
http://tarrylclark.com