Two positive things can be said about today's jobs report from the Labor Department. First, it was significantly better than the one for August 2009, and June and July 2010 were not as bad as had been previously calculated. The stock market apparently loves the report since many experts were predicting far worse.
There were 60,000 jobs created if you leave out the Census. Overall: 54,000 jobs lost, with 121,000 government layoffs, including 114,000 Census workers. Private-sector jobs created: 67,000. Unemployment rate: a rise to 9.6 percent. Unemployment plus underemployment: a rise to 16.7 percent. Number of Americans officially unemployed: 14.9 million. Number unemployed, underemployed and so in despair they've given up looking: perhaps 16 million. The employment-population ratio: up a tenth of a point to 58.5 percent.
During the first eight months of 2010, fewer new private-sector jobs (763,000) have been created than were lost in January 2009 alone. At the current rate of new job creation, it will be mid-2017 before as many Americans are working as was the case 32 months ago when the Great Recession began.
Click here for a larger image of this Calculated Risk graphic.
This marks the 16th month that the official unemployment rate has been above 9 percent. If it remains there for another three months, which seems more than likely, it will mark the longest stretch of joblessness above that level since the 1930s.
Meanwhile, policymakers argue over what will crank up an economy that, short of two years at the end of the 1990s, has failed to generate jobs at a "full employment" level of 4-5 percent for 40 years. That argument focuses on conventional measures - such as government-funded stimulus, shifting tax burdens, curtailing or expanding regulation and reforming trade policy. More radical measures, such as expanding the public sector of the economy European-style, are not on the table. Only the most left-wing politicians in a handful of safe districts would survive after suggesting this kind of approach, but even they haven't done so.
Given voters' traditional attitude toward the party in power during economic hard times, the jobs report is certain to add to a growing sense of foreboding about the upcoming elections among Democrats and their activist allies. The President will speak about the economy this morning at 10 a.m. EDT.
We really need private businesses to step up and begin to hire more aggressively for this recovery to really gain momentum," said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody's Economy.com in West Chester ...
"The economy is in a bit of a lull and gauging how long we are stuck in this rut will determine if the Federal Reserve needs to step in," said Sweet.
Among the details:
• The labor force grew by 552,000.
• The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised from minus 221,000 to minus 175,000, and the change for July was revised from minus 131,000 to minus 54,000.
• The average workweek for production and non-supervisory workers remained to 34.2 hours.
• Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for adult men was 9.8 percent, adult women 8.0 percent, teenagers 26.3 percent, whites 8.7 percent, blacks 16.3 percent, and Hispanics 12.0 percent
• Manufacturing employment fell by 27,000 jobs. Construction employment rose by 19,000 jobs. Average hourly earnings increased by 6 cents.
• Health care employment increased by 28,000.
• 42% of unemployed Americans were out of work for more than six months in August, down from 45% in July.
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SilverOz has a diary on this subject here.