That headline is right out of pollster Bill McInturff's analysis:
The GOP’s short honeymoon
Republicans have now been in control of the House for less than two weeks, but the survey suggests an abbreviated honeymoon for the GOP.
Just 25 percent say that the Republicans in Congress will bring "the right kind of change" to the country. That’s compared with 42 percent who said that after Democrats took over the House in 2007, and 37 percent who said that after Republicans gained control in 1995.
In addition, a majority (55 percent) believe congressional Republicans will be too inflexible in dealing with President Obama, while an equal number (55 percent) say Obama will strike the right balance.
On House Republicans’ goal to repeal Obama’s health care law — an effort that cleared the chamber on Wednesday — 45 percent support eliminating the law and 46 percent oppose the GOP effort.
And attitudes about the Republican Party have declined, with 34 percent viewing the GOP positively and 40 percent negatively — down from its 38-37 percent favorable/unfavorable rating last month.
By comparison, the Democratic Party’s fav/unfav in the current poll is 39-35 percent, up from its 37-41 percents score from last month.
"I think this has been a pretty short Republican honeymoon," McInturff says.
Obama is at 53, and the poll supports Chris Bowers' analysis here, in that improving optimism drive the process.
And here are a few other tidbits:
In other poll findings:
— 40 percent believe the U.S. economy will improve in the next 12 months, up eight points from December;
— 53 percent think the United States will be better off five years from now, which is up 16 points from last August;
— only 24 percent say that extreme political rhetoric contributed to the shootings in Arizona, while 71 percent say it was an isolated incident caused by a disturbed person;
— and Palin’s favorable/unfavorable rating stands at 27-49 percent, with her favorable score tying its lowest-ever point in the survey.
In any case, Obama is doing very well, poll-wise. For example:
"I think that this increase in his job approval is very important," says McInturff, the GOP pollster. "At the same time, these kind of rises have been transitory," he adds, referring to former President Clinton’s immediate — but later fleeting — bump in approval after the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing.
The poll also finds that 40 percent of respondents label Obama as a political moderate, compared with 45 percent who see him as a liberal and 11 percent who view him as a conservative. That moderate number is the highest for Obama in the NBC/WSJ poll, even higher than it was before his inauguration.
As to how long the good vibes will last - well, it's the economy and jobs, not health care repeal. The Republicans can't seem to grasp that those factors drive their numbers as well - except in their case, down. As Jay Bookman adds:
Overall, [poll numbers] indicate that [Obama] still has a lot more political strength than his opponents want to believe, particularly as he and congressional Republicans head toward an apparent showdown in the next couple of months over the debt ceiling and a possible government shutdown.
The full poll is here in .pdf, MoE +/- 3.1%