HuffPo's Dan Froomkin reports on a press call a number of progressive pollsters held yesterday, reviewing the polling on Social Security, and warning of potential dire electoral consequences for Democrats should Social Security cuts happen on their watch.
Progressive activists with sources inside the White House say that Obama's advisors are in the process of figuring out what, if anything, Obama should say in the State of the Union address, and whether he should announce a willingness to cut Social Security. Concern about what he might say in the SOTU was heightened this week when former White House economic advisor Christina Romer wrote New York Times op-ed called "What Obama Should Say About the Deficit," in which she write that "her hope is that the centerpiece of the speech will be a comprehensive plan for dealing with the long-run budget deficit" starting with the "recommendations of the bipartisan National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform that the president created," (i.e., the catfood commission). If this is where the current White House economics' team collective head is, there's reason to be concerned.
Among the pollsters on the call Froomkin reports on was Celinda Lake, who reviewed the election night polling she conducted, written up in this post:
Lake Research Partners released a new poll Thursday with dire implications for Democrats should Social Security cuts happen on their watch. And once again, the economy and jobs combined whomped the deficit as the primary concern of voters, 42 to 6.
Overall, of the 1,200 likely voters surveyed, 82% of respondents oppose Social Security cuts to reduce the deficit, including 83% of Dems, 78% of Independents, 82% of Republicans, and 74% of Tea Party supporters....
- According to national exit poll data, Democrats lost seniors by historic proportions—21 points—in the November mid‐terms. Even in 1994, Democrats only lost seniors by 2 points.
- The survey reveals Democrats no longer have the advantage they traditionally have enjoyed on Social Security. However, candidates who made Social Security an issue often saved their seats, and voters who say Social Security was a top voting issue voted more for Democratic candidates.
- As we have seen in previous work, voters see little relationship between the deficit and Social Security.
- Voters strongly oppose cutting Social Security benefits, even under the rationales of reducing the deficit or making the program more solvent in the long run. They strongly oppose cutting benefits for those earning above $60,000, and they strongly oppose raising the retirement age to 69 years‐old. This includes voters of all ages and partisan groups, including Republicans and Tea Party supporters.
- There is also strong bipartisan support for lifting the cap to impose Social Security taxes on all wages above $106,800. Support for this is stronger when both employers and employees are taxed.
...Social Security was a particularly important voting issue for independents who voted for a Democrat in this election, voters aged 65 to 74, and older voters who are women, independent, moderate, white and African American.
Stan Greenberg of Democracy Corps was also on the call. Polling they released earlier this week reinforced the danger Democrats are in with their traditional base, particularly if Social Security cuts and job creation are sacrificed to deficit reduction.
The rumored priorities for the State of the Union are exactly the opposite of voters' priorities. When asked to name the two biggest problems right now, the overwhelming answer was "jobs and the economy." Unemployment and outsourcing ranked first and second, with a total of 74% of respondents placing them in the top two. "Deficits" were included by only 18%, 18% said "wages have not kept up with the cost of living," and 17% said "the economy is not growing." The total blend of answers paints the picture of a country devastated by job loss and economic setbacks.
In a similarly-structured question, 46% said Congress' top priority should be "economic recovery and jobs," 34% said "protecting Social Security and Medicare," and only 15% said "reducing the size of the budget deficit." Another 14% included "investing in new infrastructure and new industries" as one of their two top priorities.
Should Social Security benefits be cut? White seniors said no, by 48% to 36%, and the "don't cut" voters felt much more strongly about their position. White non-college voters said "don't cut" by 55% to 35%. Voters in districts that turned Republican in 2010 opposed cuts by 57% to 34%. Even suburban voters were opposed, 60%-34%....
Would this be a "move to the middle"? 52% of independents and 55% of Republicans oppose raising the retirement age. People under 50 oppose it by a 22-point margin, women oppose it by a 19-point margin, suburbanites oppose it by a 14-point margin, and people in districts the GOP picked up last year opposed it by 14 points. For other benefit cuts the opposition was even greater. The margins were 25 for under-50's, 27 points for women, 26 points for suburban voters, and 23 points in GOP pick-up districts.
The pollsters' primary message: "any Democrat seeking elected office in 2012 should be begging Obama not to say anything about Social Security cuts in his State of the Union address later this month."
There's ongoing discussion in bink's diary.