Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos. 1/27-30. Registered nationwide voters. MoE 3.1% (Obama polled weekly, others polled bi-weekly)
| FAVORABLE | UNFAVORABLE | NET CHANGE |
---|
OBAMA | 52 (50) | 44 (45) | +3 |
DEMOCRATIC PARTY: | 46 (42) | 45 (49) | +8 |
REPUBLICAN PARTY: | 36 (36) | 49 (51) | +2 |
| APPROVE | DISAPPROVE | NET CHANGE |
---|
OBAMA | 50 (46) | 45 (48) | +7 |
| | | |
REID: | 22 (23) | 45 (44) | -2 |
MCCONNELL: | 19 (19) | 34 (33) | -1 |
| | | |
| | | |
A State of the Union bounce? In general, 2011 has been good for Obama. Since the inaugural poll on 1/6-9, Obama is up a whopping 11 points in both net favorability and job approvals.
The two Senate leaders are just treading water, within the float. But the Democratic Party's bounce is real -- some evidence that the party's fortunes are really tied to the President's. In a few weeks we'll bring back the graphs, so we'll be able to tell as the year shakes out just how closely the two favorability ratings correlate.
Asking about his reelection chances, 50 percent chose Obama this week, while 44 percent chose the generic Republican. Two weeks ago, it was 47-45 Obama -- a four point swing in Obama's direction. Where did those numbers come from? Independents. They went from a 40-43 edge toward the GOP candidate, to a 53-35 advantage for Obama. Seems like a lot! Could be margin of error (which is larger in the sub-samples). Could be an outlier (either two weeks ago or this week). Could be genuine post-Arizona, post-SOTU movement. We'll get a better picture of where Obama's reelects stand in two weeks, when we ask this question again.
Finally, let's take a look at the intensity gap:
Are you very excited, somewhat excited, or not at all excited about voting in the 2012 election for President?
Dems
Very excited: 65 (57)
Somewhat excited: 23 (28)
Not excited: 12 (16)
Republicans
Very excited: 56 (62)
Somewhat excited: 27 (20)
Not excited: 17 (18)
Yup. There's an intensity gap, alright. But this time, it's the Republicans on the wrong side of it.