In previous essays, I have examined the current political climate, compared it with past times of dramatic partisan changes in the country, and suggested that the 2008 election could be a transforming election similar in nature, even if not in the magnitude of the victory, to the 1932 election which brought Franklin Roosevelt in to the White House and huge Democratic majorities in both chambers of Congress. For many, their first reaction is to scoff. Such a huge Democratic win, following the big wins in 2006, would certainly be against recent trends. Since the death of FDR, only once when a party posted a net gain of more than 15 Congressional seats did they not lose seats in the next election. In 1974, the Watergate scandal helped propel the Democrats to a net gain of 49 seats. In 1976, they gained an additional net of 1 seat, giving them 292 seats; the only time any party has had more seats in Congress was from 1933 through 1939, when the Democrats had over 300 seats. However, as I showed in my first essay, in 2006 and going in to 2008, there are many exceptions to "rules" of election trends since 1946, which isn't odd considering the expectations derive from the results of just 30 federal elections. If one looks at election-to-election variances as mostly the swings of a short pendulum, it makes sense to expect a "correction" in 2008, or at least not a second straight big gain by Democratic. But the underlying terrain for 2008 is far more favorable than one would expect under the conventional assumptions of election trends, especially if the tottering economy and growing credit and housing problems continue to get worse. We are not dealing with a pendulum, we're dealing with a strong and long-term movement of the electorate.
In my second essay, I showed plenty of evidence to suggest that almost all the partisan and campaign/operational advantages currently favor the Democrats. The Democrats' current advantages in registration trends, campaign finances, seats without incumbents running for reelection, polling, desire for change and candidate recruitment may, but next fall, be unprecedented, at least in the era since the expansion of the federal government and the movement from rural to urban and suburban areas that occurred during the New Deal. Literally, there is just about no good news for the Republican party.
Many readers of Daily Kos may think the Democrats are not capitalizing on their current advantages to maximize the opportunity I believe we have in 2008. There is some merit to that argument, although as I will show in a future essay, it's likely that we will have big gains regardless of whether the Democrats in Congress and those running for President are bold or timid. There certainly is a precedent for such an occurrence; the 72nd Congress (1931-1933), with it's new and extremely narrow Democratic majorities in both chambers accomplished very little, pursed no bold strategies, and provided few hints of the transforming political and policy revolution of the New Deal. This unimaginative and low-risk opposition to Hoover, by the way, did not face the resolute obstructionism of the current Republican party, as several liberal Republicans, especially in the Senate, joined with the Democrats in trying to set a new direction for the country in opposition to Hoover's reluctance to engage the federal government as a positive agent for change.
In 1932, the Depression dominated American life in ways that none of our current issues do. The Republican failure to deal with that catastrophe was the dominant, nearly exclusive reason for the Democrats' huge victory in 1932. Fortunately, no single issue dominates our lives the way the Depression did in 1932. Nevertheless, the primary factor in the Democrats current standing is the deep dissatisfaction with the presidency of George W Bush. Roughly two-thirds of Americans disapprove of his prosecution of the war in Iraq and his failure to change course and pursue a responsible withdrawal of American troops. Republican corruption and Republican incompetence—exposed in the national embarrassment that was the reaction to the Katrina disaster on the Gulf Coast—also contribute to the current political environment. There are also inherent cultural, social, political and ideological contradictions with the leadership and activist core of the Republican party which threatens to open huge rifts within the party and it's electoral coalition. I will address this component of the political environment in coming weeks.
Even more than in 1932, however, long term demographic and ideological trends have been favoring Democrats. In 2000, the combined vote totals for Al Gore and Ralph Nader were over 51%, only the second time since 1964 that the loosely defined "liberal" alternatives exceed 50% of the popular vote. It was the third straight election that the Democrat won the popular vote, and in the Summer of 2001, George W. Bush was as weak a newly-elected president as we had seen in decades. One can persuasively argue that were it not for the distorting effect of 9-11 and the ability of Karl Rove and company to exploit fear, especially among key sub-groups of independents and married and middle and working-class women, the election that Kathryn Harris and the Supreme Court stole from Al Gore would have been reversed in 2004 and George W. Bush would have repeated the pattern of previous Presidents who had lost the popular vote and not been returned for a second term.
In 2002, John Judis and Ruy Teixeira published The Emerging Democratic Majority. Some observers believed their book presaged a Democratic victory in 2004. It did not. However, it did describe several long-term trends that strongly favor Democrats. In 2006, they revisited their thesis, looking at the wave that that washed over Republicans at every level: