This cannot be good news for Anne Northup.

There was some worry that the freshmen class of Democrats who won an impressive number of victories in 2006 against Republican incumbents could be top targets this year.  In fact, these Democrats were considered the most vulnerable of all the Democrats(which doesn't say much in this Year of Judgment for the Republican Party).  One district where Democrats should start feeling even more confident about keeping is Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District.

This analysis by the Prince of Darkness pretty much applies to any race west of the Mississippi:

This race, more than most, will come down to turnout. The two men who could drive turnout are Obama and Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R), who squeaked by to reelection in 2006. If Pawlenty is McCain's running mate, that might motivate otherwise depressed or apathetic Republicans. If Obama is the nominee, his huge bloc of support here (he beat Clinton 2-to-1 in the primary) could push [Al] Franken over the top. If Clinton is the nominee, however, it could have the opposite effect—energizing Republicans and depressing Obama's backers.

And in some races east of the Mississippi as well.

Kentucky-3: Of the freshmen Democrats who won GOP-held seats in 2006, Rep. John Yarmuth (D) has one of the toughest opponents, but he also has played his hand well [...]

Yarmuth has not upset his base or the swing voters who elected him, and he is a likable politician. While he won't have the same wind at his back he did in 2006, he will benefit from the presidential race if Obama is the nominee, driving the black turnout in the district and the liberal turnout at University of Louisville.

How many down-ballot races would Hillary Clinton have a similar effect? Any at all?

Cross posted at Calitics

So as we've established by now, Darrell Issa thinks very little of 9/11 rescue workers and would prefer that the federal government not concern itself with their welfare.  Cause according to him, 9/11 is not and presumably was not a national issue.  We've also established that he has no qualms about throwing federal money around on local pork as long as it benefits him directly.  So the next logical question for me is "oh hey, are there any familiar names that don't mind taking Darrell Issa's money?"  As you may or may not know, Darrell Issa is filthy rich.  So he's spread a lot of money around on Republicans and conservative causes.  So as it turns out, there are quite a lot of Republicans currently running around the Capitol funded in part by Darrell Issa (partial list):

Some disappointing news out of West Virginia, where State Sen. John Unger, who had been the consensus Democratic candidate for the Second District seat held by Republican Shelley Moore Capito, has bowed out at the last minute:

State Sen. John Unger has ended his campaign for West Virginia’s 2nd District congressional seat, saying he did not want to take part in an election process that was broken and soured by the "greed of money and tearing people down."

"I’d rather give hope and build people up," Unger, D-Berkeley, said in an interview Saturday, the day after he said he decided to end his campaign for the seat held by Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito "for now."

"We haven’t stopped. It’s just not now," said Unger, leaving the door open for a future campaign.

Unger had been the DCCC's top choice for the seat, and had raised a bit over $250,000 for his race against Capito. His departure from the race is certainly a disappointment for the Democratic party, which had rallied around Unger as the party's best hope for taking back the seat since Capito first won it in 2000. West Virginia Blue has a good analysis of Unger's departure.

Fortunately, however, we will have a serious candidate in the race; after Unger's departure, Senator Robert Byrd's long-time state director Anne Barth has filed for the race. Barth had considered running six months ago, but had initially deferred to Unger. The DCCC and West Virginia's congressional delegation have instantly united behind Barth's candidacy:

Byrd said in a statement that, "as my state director for over two decades, Anne has plenty of hands-on experience working with other congressional members."

DCCC chairman Chris Van Hollen of Maryland issued a statement that called Barth "an A+ candidate with unparalleled experience and support from West Virginians."

Barth has never held elected office, as far as I know, so we'll have to see how she performs on the campaign trail. Still, she should be a legitimate candidate in the race, which is more than the Republicans can say for the rest of West Virginia's races; they have failed completely to field candidates against Democratic Congressmen Alan Mollohan and Nick Rahall, and will be fielding only token opposition against Governor Joe Manchin and Senator Jay Rockefeller.

Meanwhile, in Kentucky, former Republican Rep. Anne Northup, who represented the Louisville-based Third District for five terms, has decided on a rematch against freshman Democratic Rep. John Yarmuth:

Kentucky Republican Anne M. Northup, a former member of the U.S. House of Representatives, will challenge freshman Democratic Rep. John Yarmuth this year in a rematch for the Louisville-based seat she lost to him in the 2006 election.

...

Northup’s entry fills what was a potentially devastating void for the Republicans, whose original top recruit for this year’s race, lawyer and former state official Erwin Roberts, dropped out just about two weeks before the filing deadline because of a military obligation.

While Northup is certainly a serious contender in a Democratic district where she managed to win five elections, Yarmuth should still be favored in the district. Northup is a staunch conservative (while Yarmuth is a solid progressive), and the district leans Democratic by nature; it was the only one of Kentucky's congressional district which favored Kerry over Bush in 2004. In addition, Yarmuth now has the advantage of incumbency, and it was largely Northup's ability to bring pork home which sealed her electoral victories in the past.

In addition, Northup has suffered an embarrassing defeat in the Kentucky Governor's race since her 2006 loss to Yarmuth, having been beaten handily in the primary by beleaguered incumbent Ernie Fletcher, who himself was crushed in the general election by Democrat Steve Beshear. It can't look good on your resume to have lost to the corrupt incumbent who was obliterated by a Democrat in a red state, only months after losing your own reelection.

Northup will run a tough race, and we certainly can't take anything for granted here. Still, I think Yarmuth has good reason to be confident going forward.

One of our Congressional toughest races last year was John Yarmuth's 51-48 victory over Mitch McConnell's protégé, Anne Northup.  Northup had held this Louisville seat for ten years, beating challenger after challenger.  Like McConnell and Tom DeLay, she always raised oodles of money from lobbyists and those Republican sweethearts, oil companies, tobacco companies, and drug companies, among others.

Since his election, Yarmuth has proven to be an excellent progressive representative.  In fact, his Progressive Punch score is 94.3% progressive, ranking him #33 of 433 in Congress.  

Last year, Northup ran for governor in the Republican primary against incumbent Ernie Fletcher, and got thumped.  Many read that race as a sign of a very divided Republican party, as Northup ran with the blessing of McConnell, who hoped she could win the seat in the fall, when Fletcher was near-certain to lose.  She lost; then so did Fletcher.  

Now, after two straight losses, Northup is back.  

First, to preface this diary, I was, and still am, a Dodd supporter.  But my horse has been scratched; I'm just watching this presidential primary race.

A couple years ago, I worked on Andrew Horne's primary campaign against now-congressman John Yarmuth.  I worked hard, as did the rest of the staff and volunteers.  

Cross posted at DitchMitchKY.com

It’s no secret that Senator Mitch McConnell backed failed gubernatorial candidate Anne Northup over former ally Ernie Fletcher in last week’s election. Getting Anne Northup into the race was a huge swipe at Fletcher and her defeat really marked the beginning of the end of the reign of Mitch McConnell over Kentucky Republicans. (Click here for proof)

I think it’s fine that McConnell doesn’t have faith in Fletcher (most Kentuckians don’t either) and tried to have him thrown from office by his own party; however, if the Senator is going to make that kind of move, one would think he would at least have enough conviction to stick by his actions. One would be wrong.

So as many of you may now know, Steve Beshear beat DLC crypto-Republican big money Bruce Lunsford by 40.9 to 21.4.  Congratulations to all Kentucky Kossacks out there!  Not only does this mean that we have a really good shot at the governor's mansion this fall, but this was a mighty blow to Mitch McConnell as well.  Lunsford was friends with the Senate Minority Leader, and would not have helped us take him down in the '08 campaign.  As a result, the chance to avenge Daschle becomes a greater and greater possibility.

With over 95% of the precincts in, Democrat Steve Beshear holds a 41.2-to-21.5% lead over GOP-allied DINO Bruce Lundsford in the primary for the Kentucky governor's race.  If this result holds up, Beshear will avoid a runoff and oppose the GOP nominee in the fall.

The GOP seems poised to nominate corrupt incumbent Ernie Fletcher, who leads former GOP House member Anne Northup by a 51-35% margin.

Beshear should crush Fletcher in the general election.

UPDATED:  With 99.4% of the precincts in, it's now Beshear with 40.9% over Lundsford.  Close, but still over the 40% required to avoid a runoff.  Fletcher's lead dropped to 50.1% ... too little, too late for Northup.

The primary is next week. On the Republican side, we have a battle between ousted Rep. Anne Northup, who faces relatively few (for a Republican) ethical problems and won for years in a Democratic-leaning district on the basis of her strong political skills, and Ernie Fletcher, who is one of the most corrupt governors in the entire nation (indicted, no less), facing investigations galore, and sports a pathetic 38 percent approval rating.

So who do you think Kentucky Republicans are leaning toward?

Bluegrass Poll. 5/10-15. Likely Republican voters. MoE 5.2% (No trend lines)

SurveyUSA. 4/28-4/30. Likely Republican voters. MoE 4% (3/31-4/2 results)

SurveyUSA polls always push leaners, which often accounts for some of the differences in numbers. Regardless, in both polls Fletcher is at that magical 40 percent mark, which would allow him to win the race outright. Under 40 percent, and he'd have a runoff with the second place finisher. I can hardly believe it, but KY Republicans are about to hand us a gift. In fact, Northup herself has given us the attack ad we can use against Fletcher in the general:

Local expert Mark Nickolas from the Bluegrass Report says the polling is failing to account for a late surge from Northup.

1. The poll began a week ago, which means it would not have taken full account of strong surges of late by [...] Northup; 2) Fletcher has to be terrified that he's only at 41% just a week from the election as the INCUMBENT, knowing that late undecideds rarely break for an incumbent, not to mention what would happen to him in a runoff; 3) how many of Harper voters will cast a vote for the guy who can't win instead of Northup who has a shot?

Meanwhile, on the Democratic side:

Bluegrass Poll. 5/10-15. Likely Republican voters. MoE 5.2% (No trend lines)

SurveyUSA. 5/12-14. Likely Democratic voters. MoE 4% (4/28-4/30 results)

So the two polls differ on who leads, but either way It looks like the Democrats are headed for a runoff. Nickolas sees a late Beshear surge (like the Northup one), also too recent to be picked up by the polling.

Let's hope that Beshear crushes Lunsford. Lunsford is no Democrat, helping raise money and campaigning for Fletcher in 2003:

Here's the case against Lunsford from the Bluegrass Report:

Top 10 Reasons To Vote Against Bruce Lunsford For Governor

10. During the 2006 congressional race, Lunsford personally contributed more money to Anne Northup ($4,100) than to John Yarmuth ($2,000).

9. Four years ago, during the KET Democratic gubernatorial debate, Lunsford vowed to support the Democratic nominee in the general election, but on October 20, 2003, while standing next to his “friend” Sen. Mitch McConnell (R), Lunsford endorsed Ernie Fletcher for governor.

8. Lunsford now promises “I’ll fix our broken health-care system” but as Chairman and CEO of Vencor, he paid $104.5 million to the federal government for Medicare/Medicaid fraud claims.

7. A few months before Vencor publicly admitted to investors about declining revenues and staggering debt in 1997, Lunsford had sold 50,000 shares at $47 apiece, for $2.35 million. Within three months, Vencor was trading at $30/share, and eventually the stock became worthless.

6. On the Vencor Board of Directors at the time of its crash was none other than current U.S. Secretary of Labor, Elaine Chao, also the wife of U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell (R).

5. Following his election as governor in 2003, Fletcher named Lunsford to lead a blue ribbon transition team to re-organize government. Immediately, Lunsford’s team eliminated the Labor Cabinet.

4. After Congress cut Medicaid reimbursements to nursing homes, Lunsford offered cash bonuses to his employees who successfully evicted seniors who relied upon Medicaid to pay their bills so they could fill those beds with higher paying, private patients. This practice was known as “patient dumping.”

3. After Congress passed legislation to outlaw Lunsford’s practice of “patient dumping,” he paid a Washington, DC lobbyist $60,000 to try amend the Social Security Act to allow patient dumping after courts told him to stop and Vencor had been fined $780,000 for trying to kick out 137 residents.

2. Between 1995 and 2000, Lunsford personally donated $52,000 to federal political candidates and parties. Of that amount, $40,250 (77%) went to Republicans, including to both of Kentucky’s Republican senators, four Republican congressmen (Rogers, Whitfield, Lewis, Northup), as well as the Republican Party of Kentucky, Republican National Committee, National Republican Senatorial Committee, and George W. Bush for President.

1. In May 2003, Lunsford dropped out the Democratic gubernatorial primary after polls showed him falling into third place (behind Ben Chandler and Jody Richards). Rather than finish third, Lunsford pulled-up lame and blamed a mean Chandler television ad for his surrender. Does Kentucky want another wimp as governor?

Pretty brutal, huh? And for good measure, he's a client of our most recent favorite consultant, Doug Schoen. Seriously, Lunsford is exactly the kind of candidate that the Mark Penn/Doug Schoen/DLC/Third Way axis of the party love to love.

As for Henry, his fall in the polls (he was once the front-runner) is because he's apparently bat-shit insane. If you're interested in the incredibly fading candidate, check out the Henry tag over at Bluegrass Report.

Update: Ooops, I didn't have the latest SUSA poll. Updated. The latest shows that strong Beshear surge.

The long-awaited Kentucky primary is on Tuesday, with a runoff necessary on June 26 if no one in a primary tops 40%.

As it happens, this will be a tossup race in November, with the GOP struggling to hold on to power in a corruption-ridden and anti-incumbent environment.

Read the latest buzz below the fold...

(Cross-posted at my blog, An Enduring Democratic Majority.)

Less than one week remains until the Kentucky Gubernatorial primary and things are starting to take shape.

On the Republican side of the contest, current Governor Ernie Fletcher and challenger former Congresswoman Ann Northup of Louisville are locked up in a pissing match over who can pander most effectively to the parties conservative base. From WHAS Ch. 11 today:

This is cross-posted at my new (as in I started it today so be gentle) blog, An Enduring Democratic Majority.

I have maintained for quite some time that Kentucky’s gubernatorial contest this year was the next big election for the Democratic Party. Incumbent governor Ernie Fletcher has been a joke for the past four years. My personal favorite is calling for all citizens to walk for their health, than driving his car across the street from the governor’s mansion to the Capitol. Either way, he’s sitting on a 36 Percent approval rating.

Republican voters in Kentucky have to real choices in their gubernatorial primary in three weeks. They can 1) stick with their corrupt, under investigation, hugely unpopular incumbent governor, or 2) they can elect formerly popular but ousted Rep. Ann Northup who, by all indications, doesn't have anywhere near the ethical stench of her opponent.

Republicans being Republicans, it looks like they're leaning toward the crook.

SurveyUSA. 4/28-30. Likely primary voters. MoE 4% (Dems), 4.9% (Reps) (3/31-4/2 results)

If Fletcher pulls off the primary win, Democrats can start celebrating early.

Ernie Fletcher, Kentucky's failed Republican incumbent governor, faces a primary fight against defeated former Rep. Ann Northup. While both are benefactors of the Mitch McConnel machine, it's clear that McConnel and his allies are doing what they can to rid themselves of the Fletcher cancer.

Fletcher's lt. governor, Steve Pence, has endorsed Northup, creating a literal civil war in the governor's mansion. Sen. Bunning has already endorsed Northup, and predicts other top Republicans will do so as well (Rep. Geoff Davis?). McConnell has stayed neutral thus far, if by "neutral" you mean lavishing praise on Northup while ignoring Fletcher.

Bluegrass Report's Mark Nickolas notes that whether in the primary or the general, it's over for Fletcher:

[N]otice the subtle, but unmistakable, shift in the GOP criticism of Fletcher from (and I'm paraphrasing) "he can't win" to "he failed to deliver on his campaign promises to clean-up the mess." They've moved from arguing he can't defeat the Democratic nominee to a much more problematic argument (for Fletcher) that he's not deserving of another term based on performance.

The danger here for Republicans is that they've now effectively guaranteed Fletcher's defeat in the fall, should he survive the primary. Bunning and Pence are now making the precise case against Fletcher that Democrats will make in the general election. Exactly the same. The Democratic nominee wouldn't ever have to go negative himself, instead he could run ads of what Pence and Bunning are now arguing. I'm sure they (GOP) are praying Fletcher loses because there's no way off this ledge for them in the fall if Fletcher survives. They've now made the record and signed the death warrant.

Blue Grass Report has POS' first poll on what will be a vicious GOP primary in Kentucky:

Public Opinion Strategies (R) for Anne Northup. 1/28-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.38% (No trend lines)

Amazing how Northup's own polling shows Democrats defeating her in the general.

The Kentucky GOP is in serious trouble. Fletcher's approval rating is at 31 percent. Northup lost her House seat last year. Sen. Bunning is in the dumpster, and while McConnell remains at 52-38, his support is bolstered by 41 approval ratings from "liberal" respondents and 48 percent from "moderates". Given McConnell's opposition to the popular Democratic agenda in the Senate, we have a possibility of using a successful 2007 gubernatorial campaign (Northup is a McConnell ally) to give McConnell the fight of his life.

The filing deadline for the Kentucky Governor's race, to be held in November 2007, was January 30th.

So the field is set for what promises to be one of the most fascinating pieces of political theater in quite some time, with an incumbent Republican governor in serious danger of losing a primary fight to a former Representative who just lost election, and no fewer than six serious candidates for Governor on the Democratic side, all of them prepackaged with running mates.

The wide field, with several more viable candidates now committed to downticket races as well, will also have a serious effect on the 2008 Senate race against Minority Leader (still like hearing that!) Mitch McConnell, the biggest GOP power broker in Kentucky.

So much more below the fold!