There hasn't been a diary on this yet, it seems; I just have a couple links I'd like to share, but here's the punchline:

Bill Sali, one of the most embarrassing folks to hold a seat in Idaho's congressional delegation (beating out Chenoweth, et al), still has $126,000 in debt from his narrow victory in 2006 over netroots candidate Larry Grant. He has $250,000 CoH.

Walt Minnick, his Democratic challenger for Idaho's first congressional seat, has raised $286,000 in the last quarter, has $444,000 CoH and carries no debt. The DCCC has added $349,000 to Minnick's campaign for media. For the more schadenfreude-inclined, it may be noted that Sali didn't meet the filing deadline, and has issued nine amendments to earlier reports since June 1.

In Idaho, the state that gave Obama his largest margin of victory, where Al Gore booked one of the state's largest venues to capacity to give a slideshow, where the state's largest city has a Democratic mayor, where Bill Sali won with a margin of less than 6% of the vote in 2006.

How much did it kill the Wall Street Journal to have to publish this headline: "Idaho is No Longer a Lock for Republicans"?

Savor that for a few moments.

Ok, now on to the article.

SANDPOINT, Idaho -- Bill Sali is defying the political odds by making Idaho's first-district congressional race competitive. That isn't good for Mr. Sali: He is the incumbent.

A 54-year-old Republican from Kuna, 18 miles from Boise, Mr. Sali represents one of the most heavily Republican electorates in the U.S. The district hasn't elected a Democrat to the House since 1992; in the 2004 presidential race, 69% of its votes went to George W. Bush.

But through slow fund raising and a combative reputation, Mr. Sali has become vulnerable to his Democratic challenger, Walt Minnick, a businessman with little political experience.

Actually, Minnick has quite a bit of political experience, but from the outside, as an activist on environmental issues. And this is what having an "experienced" politician in the seat has meant for Idaho, some of the greatest hits folks might remember from his race in 2006:

When Mr. Sali was in the Idaho statehouse, he tried to amend a bill that would extend a law against domestic violence to minors because he wanted it to apply only to heterosexual couples. He supported efforts to make divorces more difficult to obtain. He upset some colleagues by insisting on legislation to require parental consent for minors to get abortions after courts frowned on such laws.

After an abortion debate in 2006, then speaker Bruce Newcomb, a Republican, told a group of reporters in the statehouse hallway that Mr. Sali was "an absolute idiot" after Mr. Sali insisted on the statehouse floor that abortions cause breast cancer. "I've not withdrawn my statement," said Mr. Newcomb, who now teaches at Boise State University...

He objected to putting a Mexican consulate in Boise. (He says it might encourage illegal immigration.) Last year, responding to a Hindu prayer recited in Congress, he said "multiculturalism is the antithesis" of the U.S. motto, E pluribus unum, Latin for "out of many, one."...

Mr. Sali also announced a draft bill to "propose that the force of gravity, by the force of Congress, be reduced by 10%" to combat obesity. Mr. Sali said it was meant to parody a bill to raise the minimum wage, which he felt ran counter to the laws of economics.

Sali has been a core mover in an attempt by an extremely conservative faction of Idaho Republicans (as opposed to the run of the mill very conservative Idaho Republicans) to take over the party, which they succeeded in doing at last month's state convention when they teamed up with Ron Paul supporters to oust the long-serving and relatively moderate party chair.

There's also the spectacle in the Senate race of an Independent candidate teaming up with Dem Larry LaRocco to make the point that Republican Jim Risch doesn't really give a damn about Idaho voters, since he's not running much of a campaign and thus far has refused even to debate. Risch has never been one of the most popular of Idaho figures, even among Republicans, and Rammell's continuing pounding on him (which has been getting serious press across the state) will hurt Risch to some degree.

Given all these factors, there's likely to be a lot of ticket splitting all across the ballot in Idaho this year. A fractured Republican vote is the only hope for Idaho Dems, and it's looking more and more likely that it can happen.

Race tracker wiki: ID-01 ID-Sen

Enjoy people and pay close attention to the part where it says, 'we need to stop worrying about electing Republicans or Democrats because they are all a part of this." Partisanship is not the answer. It never has been and never will be and in this race I am the only answer to this problem because I refuse to take money from Big Oil (like Bill Sali has and does) and/or Financials. I refuse to be owned by Special Interest. So put your political bias aside and vote for the right person on November 4th. Your future depends on it. Literally.

(Pardon the grammar and poor spelling, I did not write this.)

This is just a nice little example of Republican money woes, and it couldn't happen to a nuttier winger:

The Spokesman-Review reported today that sad-sack Rep. Bill Sali still owes $76K to his largest creditor from the 2006 campaign - and the vendor is telling Sali he must pay cash for future expenditures. From the S-R:

The Eagle, Idaho, consulting business that U.S. Rep. Bill Sali owes the most campaign debt to is still working with the congressman and longtime friend but on a cash-only basis. "It’s all cash up front," said Lou Esposito, owner of Spartac, LLC, a general campaign consulting company started when Esposito’s longtime friend, Sali, decided to run for Congress. He said the new agreement stems from the $76,000 still owed to the company from the 2006 election campaign.... Sali has $144,677 in total debt, of which about $76,000 is owed to Spartac and $46,045 to two other consulting companies in Virginia and Arizona.

Sali's fundraising was going along just peachy, Esposito sez, "until Democrats took control of Congress." Damn, everything is their fault. Interestingly enough, however, Sali has only been in Congress one term, since the Democrats took control. It could be that Sali's former contributors have come to the realization that they helped elect one of the Congress's biggest buffoons and have decided not to throw good money after bad.

Which seems to be the general opinion held by many Republicans' former funders, given the general state of their coffers.

Race tracker wiki: ID-01

While few are actually counting on Idaho to increase Dem margins in Congress, the state is far from hopeless, if candidate fundraising is any indication. Both Larry LaRocco in the Senate race and Walt Minnick in ID-01 reported strong Q1 numbers.

This week, the DCCC put Minnick on the Red to Blue list, a move they made in 2006 with Larry Grant, but then they waited until October to do it. Looks like they've learned something in the process. Minnick also hammered incumbent Sali in fundraising for the quarter, pulling in $227,586 to Sali's $107,600. He's got the cash on hand advantage as well, wth almost $328K in the bank to Sali's $124K. Sali is also carrying almost $135K in debt from 2006.

On the Senate side, the theme for the day is the amazing generosity Republicans have, when it comes to giving themselves money:

Risch raised $512,893 this past quarter and holds $935,876 cash on hand. LaRocco, who recently eclipsed a year of campaigning, has $253,707 cash on hand and raised $196,607. But Risch - who announced his candidacy last October - added a $380,000 loan to bring his overall total raised to about $1.1 million. LaRocco has raised $552,354 total....

In the past quarter, LaRocco drew contributions from 746 households, including 506 inside Idaho. Risch, who said he received funds from 4,000 people, said he did not know how his contributions broke down regionally. In the past quarter, Risch received $195,000 from political action committees, whereas LaRocco got $52,565.

These are extremely strong numbers for Democrats in Idaho. Minnick and LaRocco are showing a stronger base of support with their individual contributions than the state has seen in years. As for Risch, a not-too-popular guy who really, really hates to campaign and to fundraise, padding his total with a personal loan isn't too surprising. But if a loan of $380K sounds like an odd number--why not $350K, or and even $400K, Senate Guru has a theory:

Perhaps it could be that Risch is scared of LaRocco's candidacy enough to contribute the maximum he can without triggering the Millionaire's Amendment.

The Millionaire's Amendment is triggered when one candidate makes campaign expenditures from his personal funds in excess of a threshold amount - and, for Senate candidates, the threshold amount is achieved by the following calculation: $300,000 + ($0.08 x the voting age population of the state, which for Idaho is about 1,092,000, as listed by the FEC). In other words, the Millionaire's Amendment would be triggered in the Idaho Senate race if one candidate loaned his campaign more than $300,000 + ($0.08 x 1,092,000), which equals $387,360. The Idaho Senate race is so competitive that the Republican Risch loaned his own campaign just about the most that he could without triggering the Millionaire's Amendment, which would allow LaRocco (and Risch's Republican primary opponents) to triple their individual contribution limits from $2,300 to $6,900. In short, Risch, the ID-GOP and the NRSC are truly concerned about losing an Idaho Senate seat to a Democrat. That's the kind of strong campaign LaRocco is running and that's the kind of year 2008 is.

At the very least, Idaho Dems are going to make keeping Idaho Red an extremely expensive exercise for the Republicans.

Race tracker wiki: ID-Sen ID-01

One week ago, 2006 netroots hero Larry Grant stunned his supporters by withdrawing from his primary battle against Walt Minnick. As mcjoan wrote two days later, it was a classy decision by a man who has always put the good of Idaho ahead of personal ambition.

And today, Grant's selflessness is paying off for Idaho's 1st Congressional District, much earlier than expected. In 2006, it took us until October to get the ID-01 on the DCCC's Red to Blue list. In 2008, it happened today - 200 days before the election, and definitely early enough to make a real difference as we try to keep Rep. Bill Sali to a single term.

As D-trip chief Chris Van Hollen said in announcing the decision to make Minnick the 14th Red to Blue candidate this cycle:

Walt Minnick's Idaho values, experience as a business and community leader and commitment to bringing people together to solve problems make him an independent, effective voice for change for Idaho's families. The Red to Blue Program will give Walt the financial and structural edge to be even more competitive.

In the summer of 2006, there were strange rumblings about a potential Democratic House pick up in the most unlikely of places:"Freakin' Idaho!" as kos said. It was happening because of Larry Grant, a former Micron executive and a good Democrat who decided that this seat would not go uncontested.

Grant had originally volunteered to be the candidate recruiter for the open seat. He didn't want to run, but he also couldn't scare up anyone willing to put themselves on the line to run what was going to be a very, very difficult race. So Grant decided to do it himself. And did it so well that the Club for Growth and the Republican party had to pour money into the race to try to keep it. In Idaho. They even sent Dick Cheney in at the last minute. They did retain the seat, but with just a five-point margin, the closest election Idaho has seen for some time.

Larry Grant softened that seat up. He proved that a Democrat could run strong in Idaho, and with the stars lining up and enough money, which he didn't have in 2006, could win. But having proved that it could be done was the trick, and it attracted challengers in Idaho's Democratic primary, something that Idaho Democrats rejoiced over. It's challenging enough in Idaho to find one Democrat willing to run, and at the beginning of the cycle, we had three.

But it comes back to that money issue. Democrats have an extremely high profile race for the Idaho Senate seat that Larry Craig is, finally, abandoning. Larry LaRocco is running strong for that seat, and is a more than credible candidate. But that race is eating up some Idaho resources that make fundraising for the House seat a challenge. One of the challengers, Walt Minnick, has the benefit of having been an active fundraiser, and funder, for the party for over a decade. With the party establishment behind him, he's built a formidable war chest.

Larry Grant decided to do what was best for the party.

Saying "there isn’t ten cents of difference" between his views and Minnick’s, Grant pledged to stand "shoulder to shoulder" with Minnick to help beat Republican Congressman Bill Sali.

"My campaign has never been about personal ambition," said Grant.

"An opportunity for Democrats like this doesn’t come along very often. I don’t want to be standing here in November asking ‘what did we do wrong?’ The objective is to beat Bill Sali."

His grace in stepping down was matched by Minnick.

Walt Minnick said, "What Larry is doing is truly extraordinary.  He’s put his desire to serve in federal office on hold temporarily to do something greater – to put the Democratic party and the people of Idaho first, to remove Bill Sali from office."

Calling Sali "the most embarrassing and ineffective Congressman we’ve ever had" Minnick gave Grant credit for being "the foremost public spokesman to reveal Bill Sali’s voting record, which is abysmal."...

Minnick said Grant’s "selfless act" was the most important thing that could be done, and that Grant’s "superb" campaign organization has opened doors for a Democrat to win.

I've heard from numerous Idaho friends that immediately following the press conference, Grant, Minnick and Andrus moved the show to a downtown Boise coffee shop, where they plotted together on where the race goes from here.

My loyalties in this race were with Grant. I met Larry in the fall of 2006, when I was on my western races road trip. I've been in contact with him since, and have grown to respect and like him more and more. While I'm disappointed, this decision on his part makes sense for Idaho and makes sense for the race. Now that it's uncontested, the DCCC can and will come in to help Minnick. And Minnick is a very solid progressive with a strong track record in a key issue for Idaho, conservation. He's got a very strong campaign team in place. A united front behind Minnick in Idaho will at the very least make the NRCC and the Republican party have to spend a lot of money to defend this seat, money that they just don't have this cycle.

The groundwork laid by Larry Grant, with help from the netroots and Idaho's strong blogosphere, is what made this possible. Thank you, Larry, for all that you've done for Idaho's Democrats. You deserve a huge round of applause, at the very least. Now let's beat Sali.

On the Web:
Walt Minnick for Congress

Race tracker wiki: ID-01

Endorses Minnick
The Idaho Statesman story is here

The Campaign's release is below the fold:

I am still parsing all of the numbers that emerged from the caucuses here in Idaho and reflecting on all of the energy I saw and experienced.

Senator Obama won here 79% to 17% and posted his widest margin of victory against Senator Clinton yet. Barack won 43 of 44 caucus sites, save one county where Clinton turned out 10 rabid supporters to Obama's seven.

Even my Republican leaning grandmother turned out to caucus for Obama in Twin Falls county. She is a strict southern baptist who voted for the Bushes four times and was the first one in line to caucus for Obama at a caucus of 800 people.

My caucus site in Bannock County had just over five hundred people participate four years ago. On Tuesday it was the fourth largest in the state with 1444 counted ballots, (+1 for a poor old guy who got mad that he couldn't vote Mitt Romney after he waited in line for an hour), and an extra three hundred or so that were spectators... (CONTINUED)

Larry Grant's strong run for Idaho's 1st in 2006 succeeded in proving to Idaho Dems that they can be competitive, particularly in this district that has a long tradition of supporting Dems. That tradition has eroded some in the past decade and a half, but the vestiges of it are still there, and can be built upon.

At least that's the calculation of Walt Minnick, Boise businessman and former Nixon White House aide who has decided to jump into the race to unseat Bill Sali. Upping the ante, and bad news for Grant, is former Gov. Cece Andrus's endorsement of Minnick.

"This is a man who can win in the fall; a man I trust and can be elected in November as Congressman from the first district," said former Idaho governor and Secretary of the Interior Cecil D. Andrus....

Describing himself as a "straight shooter," Minnick said, "My friends say I’m a bit of a maverick, and hard to categorize. I’m a Democrat who spent four years in a Republican White House."

Standing with his wife and two children, Minnick said he’s a "proud Idaho Democrat" but "you won’t find me lining up 100% on anybody’s political scorecard."

Citing Frank Church’s "standing up to a president in order to keep the CIA from spying on ordinary Americans" and Gov. Butch Otter defying party lines to vote against the Patriot Act, Minnick said, "You may disagree with me on some things, but I promise I will look you in the eye, say what I think, then do what I say."

This summer, Idaho Statesman political columnist Dan Popkey wrote a bit of a hit job in which a handful of Idaho Dems--all off the record--criticized Grant's handling of the race. From what I saw and the discussions I've had with folks in Idaho, some of these criticisms are justified, some overblown, and certainly Popkey's presentation of the story was unnecessarily snide and dismissive. At any rate, the column probably spurred more than a few Dems to think about getting into the race. One Dem already has, retired army colonel Rand Lewis, who is a bit of an unknown quantity, being new to the state and to politics there.

Minnick has been involved in Idaho politics for a long time, and has one race under his belt: he challenged Craig for Senate in 1996. He's a former President and CEO of a timber company, Trus Joist International, and is currently chairman of another company, Summerwinds Garden Centers. He definitely has the capacity to self-fund a good chunk of his run.

The good news for Idaho Dems is that they're going to have something that's been a rarity in these long, lean, and discouraging days for Dems there: a primary with well-qualified opponents, a fact not lost on Grant.

"Once the primary's over, we'll all get together and go beat Bill Sali," Grant said....

"It's both good and bad," he said. "The good news is you get a lot more press out of it. The bad news is you've got to spend a lot more time with Democrats when we really need independents and Republicans to help win the election."

Grant and Minnick aren't far apart on the issues, so the question will be who's the better campaigner. Grant should have an edge in name recognition, since he just ran and many in the district are newcomers to Idaho who wouldn't have been around for Minnick's 1996 run.

Update: For a take from the district, check out morialekafa.

Race tracker wiki: ID-01

In Washington, House Minority Leader John Boehner is struggling to rebrand a downtrodden and disheartened Republican Party in time for the 2008 elections.  It's no wonder.  Its agenda stymied and burdened by an unpopular war and an even less popular President, the GOP is being pulverized in the polls.  And with its evangelical base splintered and big business supporters jumping ship, the only message seemingly uniting Republicans is disdain - of immigrants, of blacks, of gay Americans and above all, Muslims.  The GOP is now the Party of Hate.

The Larry Craig scandal has kind of sucked the air out of the room in Idaho politics lately, but behind all that hoopla there are signs that Idaho-- or at least parts of it-- is not as blindly loyal to the Bushies as one might think.

Idaho has two Republican Senators and two Republican Representatives. It is a deeply red state.

Yet an editorial titled "Resume the draft and tax the profiteers" in this morning's Idaho Mountain Express, which serves the Sun Valley/Ketchum region, had this to say:

Greetings and salutations, Idaho Kossacks. Be forewarned: There's no Larry Craig news here!

First of all, I'd like to let everyone know that I can no longer update my April 2007 diary, Bill Sali: Even Worse Than We Expected. (Is there a statute of limitation for diaries, past which they can no longer be updated, or even accept comments? I looked in the dKos FAQ but couldn't find that answer.)

In lieu of that, your best bet to keep on top of Bill Sali's voting record is the estimable MountainGoat Report, not yet a year old but perhaps the best blog in Idaho these days. MG has been dogged about posting Sali's votes. This will take you right to the latest Sali posts:

http://mountaingoatreport.typepad.co...

More below the flip ....

I've been scarce around these parts due to a new nonpartisan job I started September 4. But what the hell: I am off the clock, and there's some big news out of Idaho that begs to be shared - and no, I'm not talking about Larry "Wide Stance" Craig's court date in Minnesota tomorrow.

From Larry LaRocco's website:

General Wesley Clark, 2004 Presidential candidate, today endorsed former Congressman and fellow Army veteran, Larry LaRocco, for the U.S. Senate in Idaho.

“Larry is a seasoned, experienced leader who will bring the change we need to the U.S. Senate,” said Clark. “He served with distinction, not only in our military but also in Congress, and he can win this race. It is wide open.”

More below the flip ...

Idaho's Republican governor, Butch Otter, is sitting in Boise trying to figure out what happens next.

Gov. Butch Otter met with Sen. Larry Craig this morning about the transition expected if Craig resigns as he announced Saturday.

After the 10:45 a.m. meeting, Otter's press secretary Jon Hanian said the governor is proceeding based on the assumption that Craig will resign at the end of the month.... But Craig's reconsideration Tuesday of his intent to resign complicated the issue.

"If there is no vacancy, there is no appointment," Otter said.

Craig says that if he can get the whole guilty thing cleared up by September 30, then his resignation is off the table, which (in a remarkable turnaround) Mitchell McConnell seems to think is just fine. As of now, he's saying he would finish out his term, and then retire. Which gives us the potential of many more months of maneuvering among Idaho Republicans.

So Otter keeps waiting, but today he broke his silence on his deliberations about who he might appoint should Craig really leave office. While all of Idaho is assuming that Lt. Gov. Jim Risch would be at the top of the list, Otter is now considering the recommendation of John Foster, executive director of the Idaho Dems, to appoint a place-holder in office, someone not interested in running for the open seat in 2008.

Otter says he considering that because of the very long line of Republicans who've approached him to say they want to be Senator:

...former GOP Idaho Lt. Gov. David Leroy and former GOP state lawmaker Dane Watkins have both told him they’re interested in running for Craig’s seat in 2008. Current Lt. Gov. Jim Risch also is interested, and Otter said he’s "talked quite a bit" with 2nd District Rep. Mike Simpson. Otter said if he were to, for example, appoint Risch to the post, then he’d be "making the decision for the Republican Party" before next year’s primary election, giving "a leg up" to his chosen appointee.

Given his well-known antipathy for Risch, he could just be messing with him. Particularly that he's "talked quite a bit" with Mike Simpson, probably the strongest potential GOP candidate for the race. Or he could really be trying to be fair. Otter is unpredictable enough that he could be doing just about anything, and could appoint just about anybody to the seat. If there's an appointment to be made at all.

But we now have the prospect of some of the real heavy-hitters of the Idaho GOP battling it out in a primary next year. And you can probably add to the mix Bill Sali, at least if Mike Simpson is in the race, because his Svengalis at the Club for Growth really hate Simpson and would want to do anything to derail his advancement to the Senate.

So we have two incredibly interesting fronts of the Craig watch. Meanwhile, one thing is certain: Larry LaRocco is the Democrat in the race, and he's working to win.

Race tracker wiki: ID-Sen

As I predicted on Tuesday, the Larry Craig saga quickly moved to the disgraced Senator's inevitable resignation.  But as I also predicted, Larry Craig's parting statement featured that classic Republican denial of culpability, the Unpology.

The vultures are circling Republican Larry Craig. Despite his defiant denial yesterday that he did anything wrong other than pleading guilty, Craig is toast. According to SUSA 55% of Idahoans want him gone. Conservative king maker Bryan Fischer at the Idaho Values Alliance wants him gone, the Idaho Statesman is taking a bead on him, the Idaho Falls Post Register didn't even wait for his press conference to call for his resignation. But most critically, GOP leadership in DC have cut him loose, if you can believe Russert.

So the opportunists jump into the fray. Pat Toomey, Club for Growth president and BFF of crazy Idaho Rep. Bill Sali took aim yesterday against Idaho's other representative in Congress and fellow Republican, Mike Simpson, one of Idaho's most popular Republicans.

But the anti-tax Club for Growth, which has played a pivotal role in Republican primaries, attacked Simpson today, calling him "one of the m ost economically liberal Republicans in Washington."

"Given his liberal record on economic issues, it is hard to imagine how Mike Simpson wins a Republican primary in the event that this Senate seats opens up," said Club for Growth President Pat Toomey.

I think the odds of having an interesting Republican primary in Idaho next year just got a lot better.

In the meantime, the Democrats have a solid candidate in the race. I want to reiterate what NDN's Simon Rosenberg said yesterday:

But Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg of the New Democrat Network said "the direct impact of this is that its going to mean a couple of million dollars early" for Democratic Senate contender Larry LaRocco.

Among Democratic donors nationwide, Rosenberg said, "There’s an enormous amount of money waiting to be deployed. This race goes to the front of the pack in Democratic Senate fundraising."

This race should go to the front of the pack. The Dems have cleared the field for Larry LaRocco, a seasoned, smart, and energetic campaigner, who also happens to be a Kossack. He'll be here at 12:00 Mountain time (that's 2:00 for you easterners) to talk about the campaign and what he wants to bring to Idaho and the Senate.

Update: Larry LaRocco's diary is up. Go say "hey."

Race tracker wiki: ID-Sen

The odds of Larry Craig's retirement from the U.S. Senate have just increased exponentially, which has got to be exceedingly embarrassing for his former staffers who went so far as to put together a Draft Craig for Senate campaign earlier this month.

But where the embarrassment really has to lie is with Dan Popkey and the Idaho Statesman. Back in March, I wrote about an impending story from that paper.

I suspect that much is waiting on what one man has to say about Craig: Dan Popkey, political columnist for the Idaho Statesman. It's an open secret in the state that Popkey has been working on a big story for several weeks now, and that story is about Craig. From what I've heard, just about everybody in Idaho politics has heard from Popkey, and he's been to D.C., as well. The focus of all this investigating by Popkey is apparently Craig's personal life since he got married and the rumors of his homosexuality--a heretofore evaded topic in Idaho's local press. The story could be a lot clearer in a week or two when Popkey's column is published.

Popkey worked on this story for months, absent from the state for the critical legislative session, and not writing anything else for the entire winter and spring. The story wasn't published back in March, and hasn't been published yet. The last news I heard on this story was that Craig and his lawyer had met with the publishers and their lawyers and since then, it's been "with the lawyers." Meaning, as kos posted earlier, effectively spiked. Which leads to some speculation about who leaked the story to Roll Call, and how did the Statesman completely miss this one? Could Popkey be trying to shake the story loose, finally? Did he tip off Roll Call? Or, since this was leaked to a Hill newspaper, did it come from someone on the Hill, like maybe from the office of an Idaho House member who might be thinking about moving up?

So now that the Statesman and Popkey have been made to look the fools by Roll Call, will they publish the story? That decision has the potential to determine whether Craig resigns immediately, or just announces his retirement. My gut says he's going to resign; his being gay wasn't a problem for the Idaho GOP just as long as they didn't "really know" he was gay and didn't have to think about it. Now that it's been exposed, and it's all over the local news according to my sources in Idaho (well, ok, according to mcmom), the pressure is mostly certainly going to be on him. One conservative Idaho blogger is already calling for his resignation.

Craig's self-defense is so lame, that he's unlikely to win much support among Idaho conservatives:

"At the time of the incident, I complained to the police that they were misconstruing my actions. I was not involved in any inappropriate conduct. I should have had the advice of counsel in resolving this matter. In hindsight, I should not have pled guilty. I was trying to handle this matter myself quickly and expeditiously."

So assuming that Popkey and the Statesman finally spill the beans and publish, and Craig is forced to resign, where does the Idaho GOP go now? The order of succession in Idaho GOP politics would pretty much require that Gov. Butch Otter name his Lt. Gov. Jim Risch, who's been practically foaming at the mouth for this seat in what many Idahoans considered a rather unseemly display. Otter, however, hates Risch, and the two are currently at contretemps that threaten to engulf the whole state party. Maybe they patch things up, or Otter figures he'd rather have Risch on the other side of the continent, and Risch gets the nod, effectively blocking out most other comers.

However, the last open federal seat in Idaho was ID-01, which brought out a raft of Republicans wanting a better job (Idaho has more Republicans than can fill the slots elected offices, so the spill-over is often astounding). Sali rode the Club for Growth's bank account to victory with just 26% of the vote in that six-way primary. We might just see another Republican food fight, and one that very well could include Bill Sali.

So, once again, all Idaho eyes are on Dan Popkey.

Race tracker wiki: ID-Sen