With the DCCC kicking ass in the fundraising game so far, Chairman Chris Van Hollen has begun to move beyond incumbent protection, and to target a wide swath of GOP-held seats. From Roll Call:
Overall, the DCCC is targeting 40 Republican-held seats in 2008 — both open seats and those where the incumbent is running for re-election, Van Hollen confirmed. Van Hollen acknowledged that the DCCC’s continuing wide cash advantage over the National Republican Congressional Committee was a key factor in his decision to shift his focus to aiding Democratic challengers.
"We don’t have to spend all of our time worrying about what the Republican committee is going to be able to throw at our incumbents. There’s no doubt that allows us some flexibility," Van Hollen told Roll Call. "It has given us some room to maneuver. Definitely."
40 seats! It's good to be on the offensive. I'm glad to see that the DCCC, at least, is willing to take risks when they have capital to spend. It would sure be nice if DC Democrats did the same with legislation, eh?
In addition, the DCCC has identified the first six challengers on their list for fundraising assistance in 2008...and wouldn't you know it, they include two 2006 netroots candidates and one current Blue Majority candidate!
The first six Democratic candidates set to enjoy the largess of the DCCC’s fundraising effort include state Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson in Illinois’ 11th district; state Sen. John Adler in New Jersey’s 3rd; state Assemblywoman and 2006 nominee Linda Stender in New Jersey’s 7th; Franklin County Commissioner and 2006 nominee Mary Jo Kilroy in Ohio’s 15th; state Sen. John Boccieri in Ohio’s 16th; and 2006 nominee Gary Trauner in Wyoming’s at-large.
Van Hollen said these six candidates made the cut for immediate fundraising assistance because they are running in open seats, have no primary challenger, and have proved their mettle as politicians and fundraisers since entering their respective races.
This is just the starting point, of course, but these six are all strong candidates with a real chance of winning their open-seat races. Here's a quick look at each of them
--mcjoan wrote an excellent story several days ago on Blue Majority candidate Gary Trauner. Trauner lost a heartbreakingly close race to GOP incumbent Barbara Cubin last year, by half a percentage point. I think Cubin's retirement doesn't necessarily help, as she was not an especially popular incumbent. And Wyoming, even now, is a pretty Republican state. Still, this is going to be a very competitive race...and it's nice to know the DCCC sees what we see in Trauner.
--Like Trauner, New Jersey State Assemblywoman Linda Stender needs little introduction to the netroots, having been a 2006 netroots candidate...and like Trauner, she lost by a razor thin margin in 2006, to Rep. Mike Ferguson. With Ferguson retiring at the ripe old age of 37, Stender is in outstanding position for 2008, with some analysts referring to her as a "pseudo-incumbent". There's a large field of GOP candidates (most notably State Senate Minority Leader Leonard Lance), but a crowded GOP primary is likely good news for us. With a PVI of R +0.6, New Jersey's 7th District is very much a swing district, and we hope it will be fertile territory for Democrats in 2008.
--Only five Republicans in the entire House represent more strongly Democratic turf than Jim Saxton, who is retiring as Representative of New Jersey's 3rd District. Saxton has managed to avoid tough races during his years in the House, but even if he had chosen to stick around, he would have had his hands full with State Sen. John Adler. Adler is a Harvard Law School graduate who has served in the Senate since 1992, and is considered a skilled fundraiser and politician (he won his State Senate seat in a year when Democrats lost 10 seats statewide). While the Democratic establishment has coalesced behind Adler, the local GOP is apparently at odds over who to send up from their side...and they really can't afford any intraparty squabbling in a Democratic-leaning district with a PVI of D+3.
--Last year's race for Ohio's 15th District (where Bush and Kerry each drew 50% in 2004) was one of the most closely watched in the country, with Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy losing by half a percentage point (just 1,065 votes) to incumbent Deborah Pryce. Rather than run the gauntlet a second time, Pryce chose to retire. Kilroy is in a good position financially (she had raised $383,000 as of Q3) and obviously does not lack for name recognition after her strong 2006 run. She does have a strong Republican opponent in State Senator, Iraq War veteran, and former lobbyist Steve Stivers, who finally entered the race after initially declining (along with the GOP's second, third, and fourth-choice candidates). Still, there's ample reason to be optimistic about this district, where we came so close a year ago.
--Also in Ohio, State Sen. John Boccieri is running in the 16th District for the seat formerly held by 35-year incumbent Ralph Regula. Boccieri, 38, has a fascinating bio; in addition to his service in the Ohio House and Senate, he has 11 years of service in the Air Force Reserves (including four rotations in Iraq and Afghanistan), as well as a stint as a professional baseball player in the independent Frontier League. It's unclear at this point who his GOP opponent will be, although the likely candidate is State Sen. Kirk Schuring. Ohio's 16th is a bit more Republican than the 15th, or either of the Jersey districts; Bush beat Kerry 54-46 here, and beat Gore 53-42. It's hardly out of reach, of course; 31 Democrats represent districts with a higher PVI.
--Finally, Democrats have their first-choice candidate in Illinois' 11th District in Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson, the first woman appointed as Majority Leader in Illinois history. While in the Senate, she worked to provide affordable prescription drugs for seniors, and she has earned the endorsement of EMILY's List. The Republicans, meanwhile, did not get their first-choice candidate, State Sen. Christine Radogno, and will have to settle for New Lenox Mayor Tim Balderman. The district is promising territory for Democrats: Bush defeated Kerry by a thin 53-46 margin here, and beat Gore only 50-48.
Overall, a promising start for the DCCC as we go into 2008. Let's hope they keep it up.
