Welcome back for more speculation! Today we'll continue the final elimination series of possibilities for Obama's v.p.

This series began with the bottom 14 names, and eliminates the bottom vote-getter(s) and replaces them with new name(s) from just up the list, reaveraging as we go (so each thread's bottom vote-getter[s] may not be the ones cut--who's cut will be determined by the new averages generated from this series's votes only). I'm hoping we'll have five or six candidates left when Obama picks and see if the DKos wisdom of crowds is. It should take about 14 threads to get all of the top candidates in the poll again, out of the 28 or so total threads. Fmr. Gov. Ray Mabus (MS) was eliminated in the previous round, and Gov. Tim Kaine (VA) rotated in to replace him this time. Sen. Jack Reed (RI) made his Shermanesque statement, so Fmr. Vice President Al Gore rotated in to replace him.

Please discuss any v.p. candidates in the comments. The most correct format would be to simply state their name, unless you have further comments. "Oh my God, where's Jane/Johnny Politician?!" would be a bit alarmist, don't you think? I'm sure they're fine. I'm happy to hear all ideas, and of course I'm no official gatekeeper, so play nice.

(continued below the fold)

Senators Patrick Leahy (D-VAT) and Arlen Specter (R-PA) have just sponsored a new wonderful bull. It's the Enforcement of Intellectual Property Rights Act of 2008. So basically they've combined all things wrong with PRO-IP and PIRATE Acts and created this wonderful new bill. Sounds perfect, right?

[From the Frog Pond]

Monica Langley, of the Wall Street Journal, is reporting on the short-lists for vice-presidential nominees:

Obama: "His focus now includes five colleagues in the U.S. Senate — Joseph Biden, Evan Bayh, Chris Dodd, Hillary Clinton and Jack Reed — and two governors, Tim Kaine of Virginia and Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas, according to Democratic operatives, though he could still make a different pick."

McCain: "They include ex-Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, a rival during the Republican primaries; Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, with whom he has a strong friendship; and former Rep. Rob Portman of the battleground state of Ohio. Republicans also are touting Sen. John Thune of South Dakota, Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, and campaign adviser Carly Fiorina, ex-CEO of Hewlett-Packard Co., among others."

I'm going to make a few observations about these picks.  

Welcome back for more speculation! Today we'll continue the final elimination series of possibilities for Obama's v.p.

This series began with the bottom 14 names, and eliminates the bottom vote-getter(s) and replaces them with new name(s) from just up the list, reaveraging as we go (so each thread's bottom vote-getter[s] may not be the ones cut--who's cut will be determined by the new averages generated from this series's votes only). I hope that'll be complicated enough to dissatisfy and confuse everyone equally. I'm hoping we'll have five or six candidates left when Obama picks and see if the DKos wisdom of crowds is. It should take about 14 threads to get all of the top candidates in the poll again, out of the 28 or so total threads. Sen. Bill Nelson (FL) was eliminated in the previous round, and Rep. Robert Wexler (FL) rotated in to replace him this time.

Please discuss any v.p. candidates in the comments. The most correct format would be to simply state their name, unless you have further comments. "Oh my God, where's Jane/Johnny Politician?!" would be a bit alarmist, don't you think? I'm sure they're fine. I'm happy to hear all ideas, and of course I'm no official gatekeeper, so play nice.

(continued below the fold)

Welcome back for more speculation! Today we'll continue the final elimination series of possibilities for Obama's v.p.

This series began with the bottom 14 names, and eliminates the bottom vote-getter(s) and replaces them with new name(s) from just up the list, reaveraging as we go (so each thread's bottom vote-getter[s] may not be the ones cut--who's cut will be determined by the new averages generated from this series's votes only). I hope that'll be complicated enough to dissatisfy and confuse everyone equally. I'm hoping we'll have five or six candidates left when Obama picks and see if the DKos wisdom of crowds is. It should take about 14 threads to get all of the top candidates in the poll again, out of the 28 or so total threads. Fmr. Sen. Max Cleland (GA) and Rep. Chet Edwards (TX) were eliminated in the previous round, and Sen. Russ Feingold (WI) and Fmr. Sen. Sam Nunn (GA) rotated in to replace them this time.

Please discuss any v.p. candidates in the comments. The most correct format would be to simply state their name, unless you have further comments. "Oh my God, where's Jane/Johnny Politician?!" would be a bit alarmist, don't you think? I'm sure they're fine. I'm happy to hear all ideas, and of course I'm no official gatekeeper, so play nice.

(continued below the fold)

Welcome back for more speculation! Today we'll continue the final elimination thread of possibilities for Obama's v.p.

This elimination series began with the bottom 14 names, and eliminates the bottom vote-getter(s) and replaces them with new name(s) from just up the list, reaveraging as we go (so each thread's bottom vote-getter[s] may not be the ones cut--who's cut will be determined by the new averages generated from this series's votes only). I hope that'll be complicated enough to dissatisfy and confuse everyone equally. I'm hoping we'll have five or six candidates left when Obama picks and see if the DKos wisdom of crowds is. It should take about 14 threads to get all of the top candidates in the poll again, out of the 28 or so total threads. Fmr. Sen. Bob Graham (FL) was eliminated in the previous round, and Sen. Claire McCaskill (MO) rotated in to replace him this time.

Please discuss any v.p. candidates in the comments. The most correct format would be to simply state their name, unless you have further comments, in which case please include them. "Oh my God, where's Jane/Johnny Politician?!" would be a bit alarmist, don't you think? I'm sure they're fine. I'm happy to hear all ideas, and of course I'm no official gatekeeper, so play nice.

(continued below the fold)

Welcome back for more speculation! Today we'll continue the final elimination thread of possibilities for Obama's v.p.

This elimination series began with the bottom 14 names, and eliminates the bottom vote-getter(s) and replaces them with new name(s) from just up the list, reaveraging as we go (so each thread's bottom vote-getter[s] may not be the ones cut--who's cut will be determined by the new averages generated from this series's votes only). I hope that'll be complicated enough to dissatisfy and confuse everyone equally. I'm hoping we'll have five or six candidates left when Obama picks and see if the DKos wisdom of crowds is. It should take about 14 threads to get all of the top candidates in the poll again, out of the 28 or so total threads. Sen. Jeff Bingaman (NM) was eliminated in the previous round, and Fmr. Sen. Bob Graham (FL) rotated in to replace him this time.

Please discuss any v.p. candidates in the comments. The most correct format would be to simply state their name, unless you have further comments, in which case please include them. "Oh my God, where's Jane/Johnny Politician?!" would be a bit alarmist, don't you think? I'm sure they're fine. I'm happy to hear all ideas, and of course I'm no official gatekeeper, so play nice.

(continued below the fold)

Note: this is not an endorsement of Bayh as he is not my first choice as VP, but he did a heck of a job with Lieberman and he is impressing some folks.

Evan Bayh is making a case for VP and I think I am starting to like the guy.  I’d have to say that I am first in favor of a strong military man by Obama’s side.  I think that a person like Clark or Webb could nullify the one avenue McCain actually can proceed on, but with Webb taking himself out and Clark attacking on his own making media splash's, and the focus in November being the economy not Iraq, my views are changing... Maybe Kaine from VA.

Don't get me wrong, I love the work that Clark has done because it was very effective and I think he's still a good choice.  As I stated before in another diary, Clark’s comment has burried itself in American's minds.  My mother in-law who is a Republican voting for Obama, was yelling at the T.V. a few weeks ago that "just because the man was shot doesn’t make him qualified," when a talking head started pumping McCain and Iraq.  I smiled and silently thanked General Clark when those words came tumbling out.  

Welcome back for more speculation! Today we'll continue the final elimination thread of possibilities for Obama's v.p.

This elimination series began with the bottom 14 names, and eliminates the bottom vote-getter(s) and replaces them with new name(s) from just up the list, reaveraging as we go (so each thread's bottom vote-getter[s] may not be the ones cut--who's cut will be determined by the new averages generated from this series's votes only). I hope that'll be complicated enough to dissatisfy and confuse everyone equally. I'm hoping we'll have five or six candidates left when Obama picks and see if the DKos wisdom of crowds is. It should take about 14 threads to get all of the top candidates in the poll again, out of the 28 or so total threads. Gov. Brad Henry (OK) was eliminated in the previous round, and Fmr. Gov. Howard Dean (VT) rotated in to replace him this time.

Please discuss any v.p. candidates in the comments. The most correct format would be to simply state their name, unless you have further comments, in which case please include them. "Oh my God, where's Jane/Johnny Politician?!" would be a bit alarmist, don't you think? I'm sure they're fine. I'm happy to hear all ideas, and of course I'm no official gatekeeper, so play nice.

(continued below the fold)

http://www.creators.com/...

I've had this cued up for a while, waiting for a day when I didn't have much else to say.  This Saturday-night-not-in-Austin qualifies.  So, this goes out from all of us, with hope, to Barack Obama of Chicago:

If you see me walking down the street
And I start to cry each time we meet:
Evan Bayh

Evan Bayh
Can't believe
Obama'd pick this guy
And I will grieve
In public 'cause his voting record
Makes me want to cry
Evan Bayh (don't pick)
Evan Bayh (don't pick)
Not Evan Bayh

We just can't let many chances slide
To get the world back on our side
Evan Bayh

Evan Bayh
Would not do
A fraction of the things
We'd need him to
Like stand up to big money interests
When they slither by
Evan Bayh
Not Evan Bayh
Evan Bayh (don't pick)

Evan Bayh
Evan Bayh
Foolish choice
Though all his DLC
Friends would rejoice
He's more of the same not the change in
Which we can believe
Evan Bayh (don't pick)
Not Evan Bayh (don't pick)
No you really gotta not pick Evan Bayh (don't pick)
Your ideals say you can't pick Evan Bayh (don't pick)
No you really gotta not pick Evan Bayh (don't pick)

One of the most often talked-about issues around the selection of a Vice Presidential candidate is the cost-benefit analysis of what the party stands to lose if they vacate their current elected office (if any; Mitt Romney over on the Republican side doesn’t have one, for example; on the other hand, if McCain picked Bobby Jindal and they won, it would hand the Louisiana Governorship over to Democrat Mitch Landrieu).

So here is, to the best of my knowledge, what a successful VP bid would mean for the various individuals that are speculated about for the Democratic nomination.

The Obama campaign has been pretty successful at being leak-free on the running mate front. Only two or three people outside of the candidate have a clue as to his thinking, and they aren't talking. That doesn't mean people like me can't have a little fun, and make idle speculation about the person who Obama will choose to run for Vice President. Here are the top twelve, as I see them:

Welcome back for more speculation! Today we'll poll the second-tier possibilities for Obama's v.p., from my new slimmed-down field of 28.

This elimination series will begin with the bottom 14 names, then eliminate the bottom vote-getter(s) and replace them with new names from just up the list for the next thread, reaveraging as we go (so each thread's bottom vote-getter(s) may not be the ones cut for the next--who's cut will be determined by the new averages generated from this elimination series's votes). I hope that'll be complicated enough to dissatisfy and confuse everyone equally. I'm hoping we'll have five or six candidates left when Obama picks and see if the DKos wisdom of crowds is. It should take about 14 threads to get all of the top candidates in the poll again, out of the 28 or so total threads.

Please discuss any v.p. candidates in the comments. The most correct format would be to simply state their name, unless you have further comments, in which case, "I believe _ _ should be Obama's v.p. running mate because..." "Oh my God, where's Jane/Johnny Politician?!" would be a bit alarmist, don't you think? I'm sure they're fine. I'm happy to hear all ideas, and of course I'm no official gatekeeper, so play nice.

(continued below the fold)

Welcome back for more speculation! Today we'll poll the top 13 average vote-getting possibilities for Obama's v.p. in average votes over all of these threads' polls, plus Sen. Jeff Bingaman (NM), who I think needs another round of voting to get a good average before I cut the field down.

Next thread I'm going to narrow the field from three to two tiers of 14--if Obama hasn't decided by then. I'll reset the averages then, too, and run a single-elimination poll each day going through the two remaining tiers, so maybe we'll have five or six candidates left when Obama picks and see if the DKos wisdom of crowds is. It should take about 14 threads to get all of the top candidates in the poll again of the 28 or so total threads in this elimination series.

Please discuss any v.p. candidates in the comments. The most correct format would be to simply state their name, unless you have further comments, in which case, "I believe _ _ should be Obama's v.p. running mate because..." "Oh my God, where's Jane/Johnny Politician?!" would be a bit alarmist, don't you think? I'm sure they're fine. I'm happy to hear all ideas, and of course I'm no official gatekeeper, so play nice.

(continued below the fold)

As we all ponder the perfect choice for Senator Obama's running-mate, one name consistently gets left out of the debate.  While we would all love a war hero like Webb or a fabulous tactician like Clarke to match McCain on heroism, that does not make a great running mate or a great Vice-President.  On his trip to Iraq, Senator Obama will be accompanied by Senator Hagel and Senator Reed- both are dark horses.  The case against Senator Hagel can be found here and the case both for and against Reed can be found here.  While others like Strickland and Kaine have crossed our minds, a name we ought to consider is definitely Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana- who, in my opinion, ought to be with Senator Obama on his trip to Iraq and Afghanistan.

Welcome back for more speculation! Today we'll poll the the top gubernatorial possibilities for Obama's v.p. in average votes over all of these threads' polls. I decided to include Wesley Clark, Max Cleland, Al Gore, Joe Sestak and Anthony Zinni as well, since they have also had top-level executive experience in some governmental role (and to fill out the poll!).

I'm going to do one more thread polling the top candidates' overall before cutting names to narrow the field to two tiers of 14--if Obama hasn't decided by then. I'll reset the averages then, too, and run a single-elimination poll each day going through the two remaining tiers, so maybe we'll have five or six candidates left when Obama picks and see if the DKos wisdom of crowds is.

Please discuss any v.p. candidates in the comments. The most correct format would be to simply state their name, unless you have further comments, in which case, "I believe _ _ should be Obama's v.p. running mate because..." "Oh my God, where's Jane/Johnny Politician?!" would be a bit alarmist, don't you think? I'm sure they're fine. I'm happy to hear all ideas, and of course I'm no official gatekeeper, so play nice.

(continued below the fold)

Welcome back for more speculation! Today we'll poll the the top 12 possibilities for Obama's v.p. in average votes over all of these threads' polls. 12 instead of 14 because of a three-way tie for thirteenth place, and because I want to work in Sen. Jeff Bingaman (NM), the most plausible candidate I haven't polled yet.

I'll alternate "break-out" polls with the top average vote-getting candidates for two more threads after this. I'm going to do the top governors/former governors and one more top candidates' thread before cutting 14 names to narrow the field to two tiers of 14--if Obama hasn't decided by then. I'll reset the averages then, too, and run a single-elimination poll each day going through the two remaining tiers, so maybe we'll have five or six candidates left when Obama picks and see if the DKos wisdom of crowds is.

Please discuss any v.p. candidates in the comments. The most correct format would be to simply state their name, unless you have further comments, in which case, "I believe _ _ should be Obama's v.p. running mate because..." "Oh my God, where's Jane/Johnny Politician?!" would be a bit alarmist, don't you think? I'm sure they're fine. I'm happy to hear all ideas, and of course I'm no official gatekeeper, so play nice.

(continued below the fold)