One of the few disappointments last cycle for Democrats was the Ohio House races. While Dems swept statewide offices (like the governor and Senate races), we only picked up a single House seat despite having as many as five competitive races. One of those disappointments was Rep. Steve Chabot's Republican seat in OH-01. Democrats, however, think they have found their guy for 2008.
Democratic state Rep. Steve Driehaus [the Minority Whip in the Ohio House], whose potential already is being touted by national party strategists, has taken official steps to organize his anticipated challenge to Chabot in the Cincinnati-based 1st District [...]
The 1st — which takes in about 80 percent of Cincinnati (which is shared with the 2nd District) and suburbs north and west of the city in Hamilton and Butler counties — has the characteristics of a swing district. Even as Chabot was prevailing in his 2006 election, 1st District voters narrowly favored Democrats Ted Strickland for governor and Sherrod Brown for senator; President Bush edged his 2004 Democratic challenger, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, by just 1 percentage point.
Meanwhile, New Jersey Republicans seem to have finally gotten the message -- what appears to be tantalizing pickup opportunities for them are only mirages. They've got no top-tier challengers for Sen. Lautenberg, who isn't the most popular guy in the Senate (though in all fairness, Garden Staters hate all their politicians).
If New Jersey Republicans are to stage a serious challenge next year to Democratic Sen. Frank R. Lautenberg, it appears at least at this early juncture in the campaign cycle that they will have to do it without a big-name candidate.
The political icons mentioned every time there is a major statewide race in New Jersey — former governors Thomas H. Kean and Christine Todd Whitman — remain GOP dreams, as neither has suggested interest in running against Lautenberg. State Sen. Tom Kean Jr., the ex-governor’s son, staged an aggressive bid last year to unseat Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez but lost by 53 percent to 44 percent, and appears likely to pursue more seasoning in the state legislature before re-entering statewide politics.
So party strategists at this point are sizing up a pair of eager but much lesser-known Republicans who have expressed interest in seeking the 2008 Senate nomination.
And down in FL-15, this fairly Republican district (R+6) represented by another crazy "Weldon" (Dave Weldon), will see the emergence of a new Fighting Dem -- Air Force Reserve Lt. Col. Paul Rancatore.
Rancatore said his background will benefit him in the district, located in the eastern region of Florida known as the “Space Coast.” Rancatore serves at the Pentagon as director for commercialization of human space flight in the National Security and Space Office and is also a pilot for American Airlines.
The Kennedy Space Center, once included within the boundaries of the 15th, has been part of the neighboring 24th since the redistricting earlier this decade, but much of the 15th’s economy is still tied to the space center. The district is home to Patrick Air Force Base.
Rancatore would need to overcome the district’s Republican track record, however, to wage a strong challenge. Voters there supported President Bush in 2004 with 57 percent of the vote compared with 43 percent for Democrat John Kerry.
Weldon was easily re-elected to a seventh term last fall in a year that saw Democrats make significant national gains, taking over enough Republican seats to win majorities in both the House and Senate.
But there may be at least a smidgen of hope for the Democrats in the fact that Weldon took a less-than-landslide 56 percent of the vote to defeat Democrat Bob Bowman, a retired Air Force lieutenant colonel and frequent candidate who the incumbent outspent by a ratio of 8 to 1.
Weldon is best known for being the lead bully in the Terry Schiavo mess.
[A] judge in Florida recently ruled that Schiavo's feeding tubes must be removed by March 18.
But Weldon, a doctor turned politician, refused to sit idle as the two sides clashed. He rushed to introduce the bill and asked House leaders to expedite it so the legislation could be rushed directly to the Senate floor before Schiavo's feeding tube is removed on Friday.
The bill, he said, would give Schiavo the representation she deserves.
"That woman is not in a vegetative state," he said this week, challenging media reports that claimed she was. "She responds to verbal stimuli, she attempts to vocalize, she tracks with her eyes, she emotes, she attempts to kiss her father."
"As a doctor," Weldon said, "I would never pull her tube out."
He is also the subject of retirement rumors. The linked CQ article quotes a Weldon spokesperson saying Weldon is "actively raising money" for reelection, but he clocked in at an anemic $58,000 for Q1. He has $353K CoH. He spent nearly $1 million last cycle against a Democrat who spent only $115K.
With the GOP brand in the gutter and Iraq making them extra radioactive, Republicans like Weldon will be as vulnerable in 2008 as they were in 2006. And with the first wave of takeovers completed in 2006, we can turn our attention to districts like this one in 2008.
Republicans like Crazy Dave Weldon will have to decide whether they want to go out by dignified retirement or humiliating defeat.
