Senate Races

NE-Sen: Today's the last day for our fundraising drive for Scott Kleeb! We're looking for 450 donors by the end of today, and $20,000 total. We're ever so close right now, so if you haven't given, please do!

Contribute here! Update: we're there! Thanks, everyone! --mcjoan

TX-Sen: As kos noted yesterday, Research 2000 conducted a poll for Daily Kos which showed Senator John Cornyn leading Rick Noriega by just four points, 48% to 44%. This is almost a perfect match for the Rasmussen poll which showed the same margin (47-43), and it is a stunning result in a state which hasn't elected a Democratic Senator in twenty years (Lloyd Bentsen in 1988).

Noriega's a fine candidate, Cornyn is a generally useless Senator and one of the worst Bush loyalists in Washington, and it's clear that there's a great deal of dissatisfaction with Cornyn even in red Texas. Noriega's biggest challenge is raising enough money to stay competitive (Texas being a ridiculously expensive state in which to campaign statewide), and building the organizational strength within his campaign to capitalize on the anti-Cornyn sentiment in Texas and get his message out.

NM-Sen: The Tom Udall campaign has made their first venture onto Daily Kos; the campaign diaried here yesterday, urging readers to support the Post-9/11 Veterans Educational Assistance Act, otherwise known as the new GI Bill.

OR-Sen: The DSCC has a new ad up attacking Gordon Smith:

It's still the economy, stupid.

CO-Sen: President Bush signed signed S. 2739 into law yesterday, which applied U.S. immigration law to the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands and hopefully will help put an end to the notorious human rights abuses there. Of course, U.S. Senate candidate Bob Schaffer believed that the conditions there were a "model" for a guest-worker program in the United States, as Colorado Confidential notes (h/t to Senate Guru).

It really is a sad day when President Bush has more respect for human rights than you do, Bob.

LA-Sen: Traitor John Kennedy, notorious political opportunist, defected to the Republican Party last year in hopes of capturing a U.S. Senate seat from incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu. Converting to today's Republican Party, it seems to me, is rather the equivalent of parachuting onto the deck of the Titanic, but to each his own.

In any case, the Other John Kennedy has a primary challenge, poor fellow, from a guy who's actually been a Republican for more than a few days, self-funding rare-coin dealer Paul Hollis.

MA-Sen, MN-Sen: Apparently Republican Norm Coleman wants to chair the NRSC again someday, so he's going around stumping for no-hoper Senate candidates like Massachusetts' Jim Ogonowski. Coleman and Ogonowski held a fundraiser in Boston yesterday with all of thirty guests. David Wade, spokesman for Ogonowski's opponent John Kerry, had a lovely comment on this:

"The truth is, it’s a natural fit. Norm Coleman and Jim Ogonowski have something in common: After November neither of them will be serving in the Senate".

House Races

MI-09: Democrat Gary Peters liveblogged today at Michigan Liberal. Check it out for Peters' thoughts on environmental policy, economic priorities, health care and rights for same-sex couples.

Peters' race in MI-09 was recently upgraded by the Cook Political Report to "Leans Republican", and he is already on the DCCC's Red To Blue list, both indicators of just how promising this race is for November.

NY-25: The GOP has been casting about in the dark for a candidate here since current Rep. Jim Walsh announced his retirement plans a few months back. After losing their initial candidate, former state fair director Peter Cappuccilli, they've now recruited former Onondaga County Legislature Chairman Dale Sweetland. Sweetland will oppose Democratic candidate Dan Maffei, who came within 3500 votes of knocking off the seemingly invulnerable Walsh in 2006.

In this Democratic-leaning district, Maffei starts in good position, having already raised over $850,000. Sweetland's campaign is pushing an internal poll showing him deadlocked with Maffei, but Dems remain sanguine:

"I don’t really have very much faith in this poll," said Carrie James, a spokeswoman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. She pointed out it was conducted by the same pollster that predicted Walsh would win the race with a 13 percentage point lead in 2006. Maffei held Walsh to 50.8 percent of the vote and a lead of fewer than 3,5000 votes in that contest.

James described the 25th District as a top pick-up opportunity for Democrats this election cycle. Republicans "went through nearly half a dozen Republican candidates to come up with a status quo politician," she said.

MS-01: Undeniably desperate to prevent a devastating loss in MS-01 on Tuesday, the NRCC is pulling out the big guns...er, young guns.

In addition, Roll Call notes that the NRCC is now establishing a double-secret goon squad of House Members, to stop this annoying trend of blowing elections in solidly Republican turf.

From Swing State Project's James L.:

IL-14 was bad.  LA-06 was worse.  But if you're an ass-scratching member of the Boehner caucus, the very real scenario of receiving a back-breaking loss in Mississippi next week is too terrifying to even begin imagining.

It's sadly indicative of not only the current administration, but the prior near decade of complete Republican control over all government agencies, what it takes for any "progress" to finally happen for the average working American. It's tragically no different for our hard working military, in spite of all the "support our troops" rhetoric from those that do anything but...

 

Today is the Armed Services' Military Spouse Appreciation Day or Military Families First weekend as it's known in my District which includes Fort Bragg, where the Army just approved $2.9 million to fix the substandard living conditions.

Mark today in your calendars.

Today the long delayed and obstructed reform legislation to end the abuse on the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI) was signed into law.

I have been in meetings all day, but I was thrilled when I found this in my inbox:

This is a great Victory.

I urge you to go and recommend this Diary, President Signs S.2739 -An End to Human Rights Abuses in the CNMI by long time human rights advocate and American Hero, Wendy Doromal.

It should be on the top of the rec list.

This victory would not have ever happened if Democrats did not take control of Congress.

Elections matter.

Thank you one and all.

Cheers

NE-Sen: Scott Kleeb now sports an endorsement from the Lincoln, NE Journal-Star. mcjoan has more on Kleeb, who is opposed by millionaire Republican-turned-Democrat Tony Raimondo in the Democratic primary. Raimondo rather cynically switched parties last year, figuring it was his best opportunity to buy a U.S. Senate seat, and he seems intent on doing just that, having dumped $450,000 of his own money into this race.

We're looking to raise $20,000 via 450 donors for Scott Kleeb, by the end of the day Friday. Contribute here!

MA-Sen, MA-05: Having lost a 2007 special election by a relatively narrow six-point margin to current Rep. Niki Tsongas, Republican Jim Ogonowski is making everyone's lives easier by waging a quixotic U.S. Senate run against John Kerry, rather than try again at the 5th District seat.

As a result, everyone is safe. Tsongas' only Republican challenger dropped out of the race, and Kerry is slaughtering Ogonowski, who can't raise enough to be a viable Senate candidate, in all polling so far. Kerry isn't even all that popular, considering how blue Massachusetts is, but the MA GOP is so pathetic that it's tough to imagine them waging a decent Senate challenge anytime soon. They haven't, since 1996.

Speaking of Massachusetts, CQ has a good roundup of House races in the Northeast.

House Races

NY-13: In case anybody missed it earlier, Vito Fossella is in a world of trouble, with Republican leaders having "lost all faith" that he can recover from this scandal.

If Fossella should retire, a Republican replacement might have an institutional advantage over Democratic candidates Domenic Recchia and Steve Harrison; geography. Recchia and Harrison are Brooklynites, while the bulk of the district is based in Staten Island. The New York Daily News reports that the DCCC, perhaps anticipating that this dynamic will play a role in the race, is attempting to recruit NY State Assemblyman Michael Cusick, a Staten Islander.

IL-18: I have seen the future of the GOP, and it is obsessed with the past of the GOP. Meet Aaron Schock, Republican candidate for the U.S. House and just a few weeks shy of his 27th birthday. On his website, our man Schock salivates breathlessly over the fine achievements of the old, Gingrichian Republican Congress:

The accomplishments of the Republican Majority in Congress since 1994 are astonishing and every American lives a better life today because of those changes made with that historic majority. Yet, beginning a few years ago, our congressional leaders and our majority who led so valiantly for over a decade, began to get tired, lose their way, get ground down, and run out of energy.

Last year, the public overwhelmingly came to believe that the Republican Majority had lost its way and strayed from Republican core principles.  

He's got stellar backing in DC, too...with guys like Eric Cantor, Dennis Hastert, and the youthful slug from Florida, Adam Putnam:

Congressman Eric Cantor of Virginia is the House Chief Deputy Whip (the Number Four Republican leader) and has hosted events for Schock’s campaigns and said, "Aaron Schock is the role model for what our party needs to do to win back the voters we have lost in recent years. He will re-energize our party in Congress and I strongly support his election."

The House Republican Conference Chairman, Adam Putnam of Florida, also has endorsed Schock and offered to help, as has former Speaker Dennis Hastert, who has said, "Aaron Schock is one of the most exciting Republicans in the nation today."

Aren't Cantor, Putnam and Hastert the same guys who were leading the party over the last couple years...around the time that the Republican Party "lost its way", according to Schock? Curious choice of endorsements to boast about, then.

AK-AL: Jake Metcalfe is dropping out of the race for the U.S. House, after one of his political advisors was caught trashing Democratic opponent Ethan Berkowitz on various attack websites. This leaves Berkowitz and 2006 nominee Diane Benson in one of the most exciting races of this cycle.

IN-09: With the primaries over, it is now official: Rep. Baron Hill (D) and former Rep. Mike Sodrel (R) will meet for a fourth consecutive time this fall. Hill defeated Sodrel in 2002, lost narrowly in 2004, won his seat back in 2006, and will defend it again this fall. It should be quite a race to watch, especially as there's no love lost between the two:

Rep. Baron Hill (D-Ind.) and former Rep. Mike Sodrel (R-Ind.) are facing off in what likely will be their fourth distinctively negative campaign in as many cycles. And with Wednesday marking the first official day of the general election, this cycle is so far proving to be no exception.

"There’s a great personal dislike between the two of them," said one well-placed Washington, D.C., GOP source, who declined to be named. "I think it’s residual effect from multiple campaigns."

-The DCCC has filed a third FEC complaint against Republican shadow group Freedom's Watch.

The DCCC filed a complaint today with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) against Freedom's Watch, a shadowy outside group, for failing to report its spending on television ads it's running against Democratic candidate Travis Childers (MS-01) and ran against Congressman Don Cazayoux (LA-06).

Freedom's Watch is operating as the cash-strapped NRCC's de facto independent expenditure campaign.  

"Clearly, Freedom's Watch thinks they are above the law," said Jennifer Crider, Communications Director at the DCCC.  "Freedom's Watch is trying to hide their spending on attack ads against Travis Childers and that's illegal.  As the NRCC looks to Freedom's Watch to save them, the NRCC, Republican Members, and Republican candidates need to decide whether it's worth it to return to the hay days of Republicans' culture of corruption by being tied to a group that regularly breaks the law."  

The DCCC has done a fine job watchdogging this sort of thing this cycle, and should be commended for it.

UPDATE: OK-Sen: Check out the Andrew Rice campaign's recent diary; the DSCC is now committing resources to Oklahoma, impressed by the strength of Rice's candidacy to this point.

Rice is running a strong race against one of the worst Senators in the land, noted climate-change denier James Inhofe.

MS-01: mitch2k2 has the latest DCCC ads on behalf of Travis Childers' campaign, both here, and at  The Thorn Papers. Check them out!

Embattled New York Congressman Vito Fossella (R)'s political career has gone up in smoke in just one short week.

It was bad enough when Fossella, the last remaining Republican Congressman from New York City, was arrested last week for DWI. "Vino" Fossella, as the New York Daily News has seen fit to dub him, blew a .17 into the Breathalyzer, twice the legal limit, and apparently had some trouble with his ABC's:

Mr. Fossella, who was driving a white Honda Civic, was stopped about 12:10 a.m. on Thursday, and told a police officer he had had two or three glasses of wine about two hours earlier. Mr. Fossella was asked to recite the alphabet between the letters D and T. “The subject immediately started and said ‘A, B,’ ” the officer wrote in his report.

After the officer explained the test again, Mr. Fossella started: “D, E, F, H, G, H, I, J, L,” and then was able to finish.

If found guilty of drunk driving, he faces a mandatory five days in jail, at the minimum. Frankly, that is now the least of his problems. Seems that the good Congressman, married with three kids, has a daughter from an extramarital affair. The mother of his daughter, Laura Fay, was the woman who provided bail for Fossella after his arrest, after Fossella had told the arresting officer that he was "picking up his daughter", and listed the street where Fay lived as his destination. After several days, Fossella has now publicly admitted the affair and his paternity:

“I have had a relationship with Laura Fay, with whom I have a three year old daughter," Fossella said in a statement.

"My personal failings and imperfections have caused enormous pain to the people I love and I am truly sorry.

"While I understand that there will be many questions, including those about my political future, making any political decisions right now are furthest from my mind".

It is pretty clear, however, that Fossella's career is in serious trouble. Already facing a significant Democratic challenge from New York City Councilman Domenic Recchia and attorney Steve Harrison, Fossella is now extremely unlikely to run for reelection. From the Washington Post:

GOP political insiders say Fossella, whose blood-alcohol content was more than twice the legal limit when he was busted at 12:15 a.m. last Thursday, stands little chance of running for reelection at this point, and their Democratic counterparts agree. Buzz on the Hill and around town Wednesday was that Fossella would be announcing sooner rather than later that he won't seek another term in what has quickly become a hotly contested seat for embattled Republicans. Fossella was not voting in the House Wednesday.

The local press agrees:

But one of the state's top Republicans told The Post, "He's not going to be able to win re-election if he is the father."

Sources said party officials have privately discussed who could best hold onto the seat for the GOP should Fossella end up in deeper trouble.

Names being bandied about include Staten Island DA Daniel Donovan and city Councilman James Oddo.

In a slightly Democratic-leaning district (D+0.8), this is yet another potential open-seat nightmare for Fossella's party. After his admission, the biggest question remaining is whether Fossella will finish out his term.

If he does resign before July 1st, New York Governor David Paterson could call a special election in which the state parties would be responsible for picking the candidates, which could lead to all manner of backroom deals brokered behind closed doors. In particular, it's possible that one faction of the state Democratic Party could lobby for a candidate from Staten Island, Fossella's home and the population center of the district. That could leave Recchia and Harrison, the current declared candidates, out in the cold.

But that's all speculation. For now, we know that Fossella is in unimaginable trouble, his political career is sunk, and we have another top-tier race for November.

Race tracker wiki: NY-13

As we all know, Vito Fossella had a little drunken driving incident last week, but know the story is growing, and as it turns out, it is all tied to a baby-momma problem.

When I first decided to run for the Congressional seat in New Jersey's Fifth District, I did it because I knew that I wanted to be a voice for the families of North Jersey who have not had a voice in Washington the past five years.

Tuesday night, I met with leaders of the Ramapough Mountain Indians, whose land was used as a dumping ground for industrial waste for nearly two decades, and are now left to deal with the after-effects of an industry which has since pulled its jobs, and the wealth that came with it, out of the community.

Some of the excruciating details of their plight can be found at this invaluable website, http://toxiclegacy.com/ .  

This is Congressional Candidates Wife, I am Sherri and my husband is THE soon to be elected Congressman of Indiana's 6th Congressional District Democratic Candidate Barry Welsh.

I have to suck in some air after saying all that.

So, ask me how the election went last night?

Yeah, go on ask me!

Georgia Congressman Paul Broun, a Marine veteran and medical doctor, has launched a new crusade on behalf of our fine military men and women. Surveying the dangerous situation abroad, the progress (or lack thereof) in Iraq, and the ever-increasing number of American casualties, Broun has, after careful consideration, decided that the problem is pornography.

"As a Marine, I am deeply concerned for the welfare of our troops and their mission," said Broun. "Allowing the sale of pornography on military bases has harmed military men and women by: escalating the number of violent, sexual crimes; feeding a base addiction; eroding the family as the primary building block of society; and denigrating the moral standing of our troops both here and abroad."

Oh, so THAT'S what's harming our troops. Porn. Of course!

Seriously, it's just one step from there to blaming the Iraq debacle on...our permissive attitude towards sex as a nation! If it wasn't for those stupid liberals and their low moral fiber...

Race tracker wiki: GA-10

We can talk about "unity" -- but the meaning of that word varies depending on the reader. I want to drive home the meaning for you, to tap into the energy and synergy that comes from people striving for a common goal. In the netroots, I'm sure a lot of people will assume that I mean unity of the Presidential candidates.

That is part of it. Click on the picture to sign our pledge for unity.

(Misha, me & Dave in front of Democratic Party Of Orange County banner. We will be adding LA and San Bernardino Counties)

But we want to go further than that. We want to take this beyond gimmicks. We want to take this beyond cliche'. As my friend Dallasdoc says "Think movement".

This campaign has never been about me. It's been about all of us coming together to change the face of American politics to make the changes we know need to be made.

NC-Sen, NC-Gov, IN-Gov: As expected, State Sen. Kay Hagan won the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate, and heads into the general election with some nice momentum after a convincing victory last night.

Meanwhile, North Carolina Lieutenant Governor Beverly Perdue handily defeated State Treasurer Richard Moore in the state's primary for Governor, meaning that the state will have two women atop the ticket. If elected, Perdue will be the first female governor in North Carolina history, and Hagan, if elected, would be the first female Democratic Senator (her opponent Elizabeth Dole is the state's first female Senator).

Coupled with the primary victory for Jill Long Thompson in the Indiana governor's race (if elected, she will be the first female Governor of Indiana), yesterday was a good day for women candidates. Hillary Clinton is an obvious exception, but even so, she has been by far the most successful and most popular female presidential candidate in U.S. history up to this point.

Hagan goes into the general election a viable underdog, whose candidacy has been compared to Jim Webb's from last cycle. Senate Guru comments:

Hagan is well-positioned to challenge Dole.  A Research 2000 poll from about a week ago commissioned by Daily Kos sees Dole leading Hagan by only a seven-point margin, 48-41.  Given that Dole is presumably at maximum name ID and that she rarely touches 50% in any approval poll (that isn't commissioned by her campaign or her partisans), she has little room to grow.  On the other hand, Hagan is still expanding her name ID beyond her State Senate district.  And polling indicates that her paid media campaign is incredibly effective.  This won't turn into a Tier 1 race overnight, but every indication is that this is a strong Tier 2 race with much potential.

Perdue's race for NC-Gov should probably be considered "tossup/lean-Dem", as she faces a tough opponent in Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory. I'd consider Jill Long Thompson's race "tossup/lean-R", as she takes on moderately unpopular Governor Mitch Daniels.

KY-Sen: More polling on the Democratic primary sees Greg Fischer slowly inching upwards against opponent Bruce Lunsford. Lunsford now leads 41% to 22%, with other candidates splitting the remainder of the vote. In SUSA's last poll, Lunsford led 43-18, and prior to that he held a 47% to 9% advantage.

Lunsford seems stuck in the 40s, and Fischer is gaining on him, but he has only two weeks until the May 20 primary to make up a 19-point gap.

OR-Sen: Democratic candidate Steve Novick, vying with Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley for the Democratic nod, has posted his April fundraising numbers. He raised $138,000 in April, putting him over the $1 million mark in toto. I don't know if/when Merkley will release April numbers, but I'd be excited to see them. The primary is just two weeks away.

House Races

LA-06: GOP House members are pissed, and they're starting to realize just how doomed they are this fall. So they're turning on their leadership:

Foremost on the minds of most Members at Tuesday’s Conference meeting was the GOP’s loss of former Rep. Richard Baker’s (La.) seat and the prospects that the party could lose another GOP seat in Mississippi on May 13.

After the meeting, many Republicans privately grumbled that NRCC Chairman Tom Cole’s (Okla.) explanation for what happened in Louisiana closely resembled the excuse for why Republicans lost the special election to replace former Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) earlier this year: a flawed candidate. Former Louisiana legislator Woody Jenkins (R), like millionaire businessman Jim Oberweis (R) in Illinois, had high negatives. But there are overarching concerns about campaign strategy as well.

"People realize that in Louisiana and Illinois, we had candidates who were flawed, and that was a principal reason for their defeats," said one Republican Member. "But there’s concern, too, about the overall political environment. A lot of Members realize that we need to be drawing sharper contrasts with Democrats."

IN-05, IN-07, NC-03, NC-10: On primary day in North Carolina and Indiana, all the incumbents won their cointested primary races, including Democrat Andre Carson in Indiana's 7th District.

The bad news is that Congress will still be polluted by the likes of the thoroughly unpleasant Patrick McHenry, who won renomination in NC-10, and nutter Dan Burton, who fended off a stiff challenger in Indiana's 5th District and won with 52% of the vote.

The good news, I suppose, is that Republican incumbent Walter Jones won renomination and likely reelection in North Carolina's 3rd District. I'm happy about this for two reasons. First of all, all things considered, I'd rather have a Republican around who opposes the Iraq War, and occasionally sides with Dems on other things, than another party-line lackey. Second, it is proof that even in strongly red territory like Jones' R+15 district, even among Republican primary voters, such a stance on Iraq is perfectly acceptable.

Don’t tell this to Rep. Wayne Gilchrest (R-MD 01), who lost his primary bid in Feb., but apparently, GOPers don’t mind if their Rep. is against the Iraq war. Rep. Walter Jones (R), who faced stiff opposition in his conservative CD over his outspoken stance against the war, nonetheless comfortably defeated Onslow Co. Commis. Joe McLaughlin (R) 60-40%.

McLaughlin had the perfect issue in which to attack Jones in the primary, but he never raised enough money to raise his name ID enough to come close to knocking off Jones, whose father was a Democratic Congressman in the state. In the end, Jones’ long ties to the CD, his conservative position on social issues and McLaughlin’s lack of cash, made this a laugher for Jones.

ID-01: Democrat Walt Minnick, running against incumbent Bill "Absolute Idiot" Sali, held a campaign event yesterday in which he sold gasoline for $2.26 a gallon. Roll Call has an article about Minnick's uphill candidacy in this R+18.9  district, where Larry Grant nearly pulled off an incredible upset last year:

But some Republicans are concerned. They point to what happened to the GOP in Illinois’ 14th, represented for many years by former Speaker Dennis Hastert (R), and Louisiana’s 6th, held by the GOP even before former Rep. Richard Baker first won the seat in 1986, as proof that running as a Republican in a conservative district is no longer enough to guarantee victory.

"This is not the kind of environment where Republicans can be operating under the assumption that they can win in a red district simply because they have an R next to their name," said one GOP strategist based in Washington, D.C.

Minnick has actually outraised Sali, and is already on Red To Blue. It's a tough race, but no one is less deserving of a seat in the U.S. House than Bill Sali.

MS-01: Still more money going into this race. The DCCC is going for the kill here, it seems, and the NRCC is pulling out all the stops to stave off defeat.

One month ago:

House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) predicted Thursday that Republicans will pick up seats in the 2008 election despite a slew of GOP retirements and the Democrats’ significant fundraising advantage.

"We don’t need as much money as [Democrats] have," he said.  "We need enough to tell our story."

He added, "I think we are going to gain seats this year. Period."

Today:

Losses in two recent special elections combined with prospects for a tough contest next week sent House Republicans scrambling for change — both in words and deeds.

Minority Leader John A. Boehner told his caucus behind closed doors Tuesday that Americans won’t vote for Republicans until they fix their "brand" and convince voters they will fix Washington, according to members who were present.

The solution?

He told reporters that a campaign message for the caucus would be developed in the next few weeks.

"I think it’s clear this election is about change," Boehner said. "If we’re going to do well in this election, if we’re going to win back our majority, we have to prove to people that we are in fact the agents of change."

"I’ve been saying it for a year and a half," Boehner told his colleagues, according to the Ohio Republican’s written talking points and those inside the room. "Some of you have been listening. Others I’m not so sure about."

Boehner cited the need to stick with presumed presidential nominee Arizona Sen. John McCain and aggressively criticize Speaker Nancy Pelosi , D-Calif.

Right. Agents of change. Doing things like this.

House Republicans will hold a rally with President Bush on Wednesday morning, with all 199 members invited to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. to show solidarity with the president, according to GOP sources.

That's a total change from the blind solidarity Republicans have give Bush the last eight years! That'll show voters how Republicans want a change from a potential Obama presidency and all the things he'd do to reverse the Bush disaster! And yeah, it'll totally be a change for Republicans to remind voters that Pelosi is from -- gasp! -- San Francisco! That'll be so different from the last two years they've spent reminding voters that Pelosi is from -- gasp! -- San Francisco!

Where did Republicans dig up this joker?

I hope Republicans stay this stupid all year:

House Republicans will hold a rally with President Bush on Wednesday morning, with all 199 members invited to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. to show solidarity with the president, according to GOP sources.

I hope there are lots of pictures taken with Mr. 28%. People may not be able to vote against the nation's Worst President Ever, but they sure as heck can punish those who continue to prop up his regressive agenda. Unfortunately, I think Tim F. over at Balloon-Juice has it right:

I have to assume that this little pep rally will be about as well attended as Alberto ‘abu’ Gonzales’s farewell party at the DoJ. Still, if this is the political genius coordinating 2008 Congressional races you can sort of understand why Republican partisans outside of government have gotten so frantic.

Our favorite Newt:

The Anti-Obama, Anti-Wright, and Anti-Clinton GOP Model Has Been Tested -- And It Failed

The Republican brand has been so badly damaged that if Republicans try to run an anti-Obama, anti- Reverend Wright, or (if Senator Clinton wins), anti-Clinton campaign, they are simply going to fail.

This model has already been tested with disastrous results.

In 2006, there were six incumbent Republican Senators who had plenty of money, the advantage of incumbency, and traditionally successful consultants.

But the voters in all six states had adopted a simple position: "Not you." No matter what the GOP Senators attacked their opponents with, the voters shrugged off the attacks and returned to, "Not you."

The danger for House and Senate Republicans in 2008 is that the voters will say, "Not the Republicans."

This is quite a radical idea in the current Republican world, which is under the impression that the increased voter registration and organizing around our long-drawn primary is a good thing for them. They labor under the fiction (shared by too many Clinton supporters) that voters will find Wright more detestable and relevant than George W. Bush, the shitty economy, and the never-ending war in Iraq.

A February Washington Post poll shows that Republicans have lost the advantage to the Democrats on which party can handle an issue better -- on every single topic.

Americans now believe that Democrats can handle the deficit better (52 to 31), taxes better (48 to 40) and even terrorism better (44 to 37).

This is a catastrophic collapse of trust in Republicans built up over three generations on the deficit, two generations on taxes, and two generations on national security.

Yup. And Jeremiah Wright can't begin to compete in the voters' minds with this or Bush or Iraq, no matter how much Republicans will it so.

Gingrich then goes on to make a series of policy proposals he thinks would restore the Republican brand. Things like a gas tax holiday, make English the official language, "remind Americans that judges mattered" (because apparently they forgot), and take digs at unions.

Isn't this already the GOP platform? So okay, his "bold course of real change" isn't so bold or actually change course from anything that Bush hasn't already wrought on the nation. But his clear-eyed understanding of his party's dire straits? That part is dead on.

Meanwhile, Republicans in Congress are feeling a bit, well, panicky.

Shellshocked House Republicans got warnings from leaders past and present Tuesday: Your party’s message isn’t good enough to prevent disaster in November, and neither is the NRCC’s money.
The double shot of bad news had one veteran Republican House member worrying aloud that the party’s electoral woes — brought into sharp focus by Woody Jenkins’ loss to Don Cazayoux in Louisiana on Saturday — have the House Republican Conference splitting apart in “everybody for himself” mode.

“There is an attitude that, ‘I better watch out for myself, because nobody else is going to do it,’” the member said. “There are all these different factions out there, everyone is sniping at each other, and we have no real plan. We have a lot of people fighting to be the captain of the lifeboat instead of everybody pulling together.”

In a piece published in Human Events, the Republicans’ onetime captain, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, warned his old colleagues that they face “real disaster” on Election Day unless they move immediately to “chart a bold course of real reform” for the country.

I'm sure that after seeing Gingrich's lame prescription for what ails them, their mood can only worsen.

Dan Burton has been around a long time, so why tonight, dis he only finish his primary night with 52% of the vote?

Update-Still 3 Counties to report in this district.  For those that don't know this district, in 2004 the Primary results were Pence 61794 Fox 31231

I know the focus is on the Presidential and Gubernatorial here in the Hoosier state but...

There are still a few counties that haven’t posted, but things are looking good here in the 6th District of Indiana!

I have lost one out of 19 counties and that was by 300 votes.

Senate/Governor Races

NE-Sen: With just a week left until Scott Kleeb's primary, help him raise $20,000 by Friday! mcjoan wrote an excellent piece yesterday on the efforts of Kleeb's primary opponent, ex-Republican businessman Tony Raimondo, to buy this primary with his vast personal fortune. Let's show Raimondo what people power is capable of, and show Kleeb some love!

NC-Sen: Today is primary day in North Carolina, and aside from the presidential race, there are three major statewide races of interest; the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, and the Democratic and Republican primaries for Governor.

In the Senate race, State Senator Kay Hagan looks poised to deliver a convincing victory in her primary. Public Policy Polling shows her leading her closest challenger, Jim Neal, by 30 points, while SUSA shows her ahead by twenty-five.

Assuming she wins, she'll go into the general election as a clear underdog against incumbent Elizabeth Dole. Still, Hagan should be considered one of the strongest second-tier Senate challengers this cycle. Real Clear Politics has an interesting article about this race, comparing Hagan to Jim Webb:

But Hagan has raised an impressive $1.52 million, much of which she has spent on making the primary with Neal a blowout. And trailing by just seven points in public polls is on par with Webb and others from the 2006 cycle; a Democratic poll taken in late June, 2006, showed Webb trailing Allen by a 46%-39% margin, and a Mason-Dixon poll in late July had Allen leading by a whopping 16 points. And Hagan's campaign brags that only Missouri's Claire McCaskill and Ohio's Sherrod Brown have raised more money through the First Quarter of 2006.

As for the North Carolina gubernatorial primaries, Lieutenant Governor has a wide lead over State Treasurer Richard Moore in the Democratic primary, while Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory (considered the strongest Republican general-election candidate) faces a tough challenge from State Sen. Fred Smith. I'm hoping that Smith manages to pull off the upset today.

IN-Gov: There's a primary tonight in Indiana, of course, and one of the hottest races here will be the Democratic primary for Governor of Indiana, where architect Jim Schellinger faces former Congresswoman Jill Long Thompson. The winner will get to take on unpopular GOP incumbent Mitch Daniels in what should be one of the closest gubernatorial races of the fall.

Polling has indicated a dead heat in the primary race, and that both candidates are competitive with Daniels. We'll see how things shake out tonight.

House Races

NY-13: Vito Fossella may face jail time for drunk driving, should he be found guilty. It's difficult to say how much of an effect this scandal will have on his chances for reelection. He had already been targeted by the DCCC, his district leans very slightly Democratic, and he has two challengers in the race; attorney Steve Harrison, who gave him his toughest challenge yet in 2006, and New York City Councilman Domenic Recchia, who currently has more cash-on-hand than the incumbent Fossella.

However, one major advantage for Fossella is geographic; his challengers both hail from Brooklyn, while Fossella-and the majority of NY-13 voters-live in Staten Island.

LA-06: The fallout from the Democratic pickup in LA-06 is looking pretty severe for the Republicans. The Hill notes serious infighting in the GOP caucus, following their second humiliating special-election loss in a row, with NRCC chairman Tom Cole lashing out at his Republican brethren:

Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.) chastised his colleagues Tuesday for not contributing to the GOP candidate in an increasingly crucial Mississippi special election, saying those who have not helped "ought to be ashamed of themselves," Republican sources said.

The harsh admonition from the head of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) was the latest rallying cry from GOP campaigners, who have repeatedly cited a lack of enthusiasm and giving from members. House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) told his colleagues earlier this year that they needed to get off their "dead asses" and raise money for the NRCC.

Boehner and Cole continued that theme Tuesday at a House GOP meeting, asking members to focus on the Mississippi race just days after the party suffered a second loss of the cycle in former Rep. Richard Baker’s (R) conservative Louisiana district.

There had been rumors that Cole would be relieved of his position if the GOP lost the special election in IL-14. Obviously, this has not occurred, but I doubt the GOP caucus is especially happy with Cole's stewardship of the NRCC, and he certainly doesn't seem happy with their contributions.

Cole's biggest mistake may have been to rely on demonizing high-profile national Democrats in this race; the traditional media is already pushing the narrative that that strategy has failed. From Roll Call:

Vulnerable House Democrats, touting their independence in their re-election efforts, might be breathing more easily this week after Republicans failed in their bid to make Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) a political albatross.

In the first test-case for the strategy, the special election Louisiana’s 6th district, Democrat Don Cazayoux pulled out a win, making him the first Democrat to hold the seat in 32 years.

Donna Brazile agrees:

While Cazayoux was busy campaigning about helping those still struggling in Louisiana and bringing positive change to Washington, Republicans were trying to win by hook or by crook. National conservative groups, a veritable who’s who of Washington special interests, spent nearly a million dollars trying to brand Cazayoux as an Obama/ Clinton/Pelosi tax-and-spend liberal Democrat. The National Republican Congressional Committee and Freedom’s Watch even brazenly skirted federal campaign finance law by coordinating their attacks.

At the end of the day, they failed, making this race the second time this year that Republicans unsuccessfully tried to hold onto a conservative-leaning House seat by injecting national politics into the race.

Ultimately, the Republicans can scream all they want about Clinton, Obama and Pelosi. It won't disguise the fact that their candidates are bad and their ideas are bad.

CA-50: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner has polled this race, and finds surprisingly strong numbers for Democrat Nick Leibham in his quest to unseat Republican Brian Bilbray, who won a relatively close special election in June 2006 against Dem Francine Busby. Bilbray leads Leibham 52% to 34%, but there are several reasons for optimism. Swing State Project's James L. notes:

That's about where you'd expect this race to be at this point.  But looking deeper into the numbers, Democrats have a 43%-39% generic congressional ballot preference advantage here, and a 47%-40% generic presidential advantage.  And after a positive bio is read of both Leibham and Bilbray, the gap closes to 49% Bilbray, 46% Leibham.

Bilbray's re-elects aren't stellar either, with only 42% of voters saying that they will vote to re-elect him, while 39% say that they'll cast their ballots for someone else.

MS-01: The DCCC keeps putting money into this race, with an additional expenditure of $100,000 now increasing the total spent to just shy of $1.4 million. That's insane for an R+10 district.

The Republicans are pulling out the big guns, sending Dick Cheney himself to campaign with Greg Davis. Frankly, I know this is solidly Republican territory, but even so, I'm not sure Cheney's going to help much. For more, check out Cotton Mouth Blog.

WV-02: Kossacks clammyc and thereisnospoon have conducted an exclusive interview with Democratic candidate Anne Barth, as part of an ongoing series of radio interviews with progressive candidates. Check it out!

Update: Check out Swing State Project's terrific list of Competitive House Race Rankings. Seriously, don't miss it.

Race tracker wiki: NE-Sen NC-Sen NC-Gov IN-Gov NY-13 LA-06 CA-50 MS-01

We have a lot going on today in North Carolina as you all know. You can feel the excitement in the air. We aren't accustomed to our primary being so important to those outside our state and getting the attention here in North Carolina that we've been getting. Now let me say first of all that I'm pleased that I don't have an opponent in today's primary so I can relax a bit. However, I can't help thinking as I watch what is happening that it isn't nearly as important what happens today as is what happens tomorrow.  

As I watch what is happening here on the ground...