CA-50: New poll: Busby tied with Bilbray 45% / 45%
Wed May 10, 2006 at 10:15:28 PM PDT
A new
SUSA poll has Busby and Bilbray tied at 45%.
Recall that although this is a heavily Republican district, our congressman is now federal inmate 94405-198 (AKA Randy Cunningham, AKA Dukestir). And lets not forget that people are just now finding out about Watergategate/ Hookergate/ WatergateII (almost certainly that hasn't registered in this survey yet).
On the flip, checking out the poll's crosstabs details (there is great news for Busby), and CA-50 news wrap-up:
CA-50: Roach, Kaloogian in D.C. seeking support
Wed Apr 26, 2006 at 12:18:57 PM PDT
Confusion and fracturing continue on the GOP side in CA-50. Despite losing the April 11th primary to lobbyist Brian Bilbray, extremely wealthy Rancho Santa Fe Republican Eric Roach is showing even more signs that he will aggressively challenge the June primary (attempting a write-in candidacy in the runoff itself is also an option, though it seems less likely). Along with his new best buddy Howard Kaloogian, Roach has embarked on an ironically-named "conservative unity tour" of national conservative groups in Washington D.C., to gauge support for Roach's candidacy. (aside: do Republicans ever name anything non-ironically?)
Kaloogian has said he will endorse Roach if Roach runs in the June primary.
Update - CA-50: Roach runs radio ad 'thanking' voters (ahem: HE'S IN)
Tue Apr 18, 2006 at 01:20:32 PM PDT
Jon Fleischman of
Flashreport has posted the audio of a radio spot Republican Eric Roach has JUST produced and aired. Yes, that's right, he is not the Republican nominee for the June 6 CA-50 runoff against
Francine Busby, and yes, that's right, it is AFTER the election that he has made and is running this ad.
It isn't a campaign ad--it is just a message "thanking" voters for their support and the great experience he had during the campaign. Yeah. Right. So, that can only mean one thing--Roach is in. As diaried by MJB, yesterday Roach obtained the endorsement of Howard Kaloogian--of "Baghdad is calm and stable" (or at least, Istanbul is) fame.
CA-50: Kaloogian promises to support Roach against Bilbray
Tue Apr 18, 2006 at 08:56:29 AM PDT
Division in the GOP ranks in CA-50 now seems ever more likely, with the third-place Republican in last week's primary strongly encouraging the second-place finisher, Eric Roach, to take on GOP lobbyist Brian Bilbray in the June 6 primary.
Howard Kaloogian, who finished a distant third among Republican candidates in the CA-50 primary last week (even though he had the endorsement of James Dobson and Focus on the Family), has announced that he will support Eric Roach if Roach decides to take on Bilbray in the GOP primary on June 6. That is the same day that Bilbray will be facing Democratic nominee Francine Busby in the runoff to fill the remainder of the term of convicted GOP felon Randy "Duke" Cunningham.
(Quote after the flip.)
CA-50: Some thoughts the morning after
Wed Apr 12, 2006 at 10:50:48 AM PDT
Was turnout low? Why was turnout low? What's next? How will Busby do in the runoff? My unvarnished opinions below the fold.
UPDATED: CA-50 Election Returns Open Thread
Tue Apr 11, 2006 at 08:03:31 PM PDT
Well, someone had to do it.
Polls just closed here in California, so now we sit and wait to see how Busby does. Low 40s? 47% like SurveyUSA says? Or that magical 50.0001%?
We shall see. Check here for an updated tally.
For the record, my guess is an impressive 46% -- still leaving the 6/6/06 (devilish, I know) primary a true toss-up.
Update [2006-4-11 20:19:11 by AnthonySF]: With 0.9% of the precincts in, Busby has 42.23% to Bilbray's 14.15% and Roach's 13.92%. Loogy is not worth an update.
Update 2 [2006-4-11 23:16:16 by AnthonySF]: With 7.4% of the precincts in, Busby has 42.19% to Bilbray's 14.59% and Roach's 14.02%.
Update 3 [2006-4-11 23:35:10 by AnthonySF]: With 22.2% of the precincts in, Busby has 42.88% to Bilbray's 15.18% and Roach's 13.93%.
Update 4 [2006-4-11 23:59:00 by AnthonySF]: The results are coming in at turtle speed so I'm heading off to bed (11pm PST). I'll update in the morning, but from here we're looking at the expected Busby-Bilbray June run-off.
CA-50: The Hotline Reports on Busby's Unfortunate Ballot Position
Tue Apr 11, 2006 at 09:13:35 AM PDT
I've seen some Kossacks hoping for Francine Busby to have a top position on today's CA-50 ballot. Unfortunately, it is not to be.
More follows...
CA-50: new poll out tonight
Mon Apr 10, 2006 at 09:09:28 PM PDT
New poll (PDF) by Datamar has Busby at 40.7, however, Datamar has been showing Busby lower than other polls all along. They are sampling at 54% Republicans, 33% Democrats, however absentee ballots turnout so far gives a demographic mix of 46% and 37% (see
this post at mydd analyzing the previous Datamar poll). So if that ratio holds, Busby will do better than indicated in this poll.
Other random news items below the fold.
5 Days Until 4/11 (Busby, Kaloogian, Duke, scandal, drama, democracy)
Thu Apr 06, 2006 at 09:10:23 PM PDT
Holy Crap, we've got 5 days until the special election to replace
convicted felon Randy Duke Cunningham in CA-50. And it's been an amazing couple of weeks.
First, simultaneous polls (internal and independent) indicated that Francine Busby (D) was the top candidate in the field of 14+, by a 3-1 margin over her closest Republican opponent. Both pegged her support in the high 30s. Not enough to win the seat without a June 6 runoff, but definitely respectable.
Next came the excellent poll results from SUSA, the most accurate pollster of the 2004 elections, which indicated that Busby's support stands at about 45% of likely voters. Then, in what should not have even been a surprise, we were blessed with Kaloogiangate--the fake Iraq photos that (I hope and pray) may have brought just enough exposure to this race to increase Busby's support to 50%+.
CA-50: Absentee votes will be key to Busby win
Wed Apr 05, 2006 at 06:03:59 PM PDT
According to the
North County Times, a local paper in CA-50, absentee voters will be the key to this special election. Luckily for us, as discussed in this article, Busby has been focusing on absentee strategy from the beginning.
Now that HAVA has made permanent absentee voting available in all 50 states, and with even the suggestion of a problem with Diebold (conspiracy theory or not), this is a good case study for those of you looking forward to November's GOTV strategy.
One week to Rep. Busby (D-San Diego) in CA-50!!!
Tue Apr 04, 2006 at 09:41:25 AM PDT
BAHHHH!!!! I'm quivering with excitement y'all!!!! Thanks everyone for pumping up Francine's
ActBlue netroots account last week. She has $27K so far.
This is a special election, so any candidate that reaches 50% wins it outright, otherwise run-off of top candidate in each party in June. Busby, getting 45% in a SUSA poll last week, is the only candidate with a prayer of making 50% (the R's are splitting the vote and even the front-runners are around 12% each). Check out this summary of the candidates in chart form, or read on for a run-down.
My BBC interview.
Mon Apr 03, 2006 at 05:05:57 PM PDT
I'm supposed to have a brief on-air telephone conversation with Chris Vallance of the BBC radio program "Up All Night" tonight at 9:25 or so, Eastern time (I guess that translates to 2:25am London time). He'll ask me about the Kaloogian
fib photo story, and how the case was cracked.
I'll try to put the DKos community in a good light! (Of course, speaking only for myself.)
Kaloogian pisses off CA GOPers, lies about endorsements
Sat Apr 01, 2006 at 08:08:29 AM PDT
Crossposted at Calitics.com
Howie K. is perhaps one of the best "GOP poster boys" one could hope for, the gift that just keeps on giving and giving.
First of all he posts pictures on his website of Turkey and calls them "downtown Baghdad," then he blames the mistake on his webmaster (of course he is just following the leadership of the rest of the GOP which is "the buck never stops here"), and then we find out that liars like Howie just can't seem to ever be truthful.
Seems Howie has pissed of some CA GOPers because, well Howie just couldn't find the truth if it bit him in the ass.
The rest of the story below the fold....
Photoshop or Kaloogian does it again?
Fri Mar 31, 2006 at 04:53:57 PM PDT
The Kaloogian picturegate just does not die. Found on
TPM Cafe further questions on accuracy of pictures and it is now broading to false endorsements.
On Kaloogian's campaign website is a photo of him posing with President George Bush, in a rotating "Flash" slideshow.
Kaloogian Campaign Website Picture:
Kaloogian blames LIBERALS for his photo mistake
Fri Mar 31, 2006 at 10:55:05 AM PDT
The plot thickens in Howard Kaloogian's "accidental" posting of a photograph from Istanbul, Turkey on his campaign website, used to show how "calm and stable" Iraq really is.
According to Kaloogian, as a direct result of our investigation into his fake photo "In the past 24 hours my campaign website has been bombarded with our
largest inflow of support in the form of campaign contributions that we have experienced the entire campaign."
Is that so Mr. Kaloogian? I'm not sure I believe anything you say! more from his mindboggling letter to "supporters", under the fold:
Kaloogian didn't take these pictures either
Thu Mar 30, 2006 at 07:17:08 PM PDT
When Howard Kaloogian's Move America Forward Truth Tour traveled to Iraq to take pretty pictures last summer, the delegation apparently stopped in Baghdad between July 11 and July 15, 2005.
The pictures of Baghdad Mr. Kaloogian should have posted on his web site are the ones he refused to take:
On July 11
Ten unidentified men suffocated at Al-Nisour Square police station, Baghdad
Ten Sunni Muslim tribesmen died after American-trained Iraqi police commandos kept them in an airtight container for more than six hours in 115-degree heat, outraged Sunni clerics and politicians alleged link
Sgt. Timothy J. Sutton, 22, of Springfield, Missouri dead in Baghdad, after his HMMWV struck a land mine (Sutton was assigned to the Army's 3rd Squadron, 3rd Armored Cavalry Regiment, Fort Carson, Colorado) link
U-T article credits dKos for Kaloogian - update NCTimes
Thu Mar 30, 2006 at 08:40:22 AM PDT
CA-50: Kaloogian new proof of a happy Iraq
Wed Mar 29, 2006 at 10:43:44 PM PDT
So Kaloogian needs a picture of smiling, happy people in Baghdad to prove his point that all's peachy over there. He tries to slip by a picture of smiling, happy people in a suburb of Istanbul, Turkey, but he was stymied by those meddling kids at dKos.
But he was there! He has thousands of pictures to choose from! So which one does he choose to replace the hoax picture?
So, um, are we supposed to be impressed that there are no plumes of smoke rising from burnt out buildings? Because this looks like it was taken from the window of the plane as it was about to land. Not exactly the sort of thing that cries "evidence of happy Iraqis!"
-----
Also, Newsweek and the NY Times covered the story. I know the SF Chronicle is working on a piece as well.
Update: The picture was taken from the Rashid Hotel in the Green Zone. All safe and cozy. Too bad Kaloogian couldn't get out to where real people lived to snap his pictures of happy and safe Iraqis.
This picture was apparently taken last year, and one of the buildings in that picture has been bombed to pieces.
Update: An emailer pulled out the image's meta data and we know that it was taken by a Minolta camera, cropped/edited with Photoshop Elements, and, most importantly, that the picture was taken on July 13, 2005.
This is an old picture.
Race tracker wiki: CA-50
