A review of the latest polls from SurveyUSA shows promising news in the midwest. First up, on the Missouri side - Kay Barnes - well-liked, former Kansas City Mayor and Democratic candidate for MO-06. SurveyUSA says:

Democrat Challenger Barnes Creeps-Up on Incumbent Republican Graves in MO6: In an election for United States House of Representatives from Missouri's 6th Congressional District today, 08/01/08, incumbent Republican Sam Graves edges Democrat Kay Barnes 48% to 44%, according to this SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KCTV-TV Kansas City. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 10 weeks ago, Graves is flat, Barnes is up. Among men, Graves had led by 19, now leads by 23. Among women, the two had been tied; today, Barnes leads by 17 points -- a 40-point gender gap.

Great news! Barnes is pulling even and within striking distance of victory. Looks like Missourians are waking up to the fact that Sam Graves does not represent their best interests. All they need to do is wander down to the gas station or the grocery and look at the prices to see that Sam Graves and the Republican policies are a disaster. They feel it every day and with a strong push, Sam Graves is going to be feeling it in November when he gets his walking papers from Missouri voters. Stop by Kay's website to see how you can help show Graves the door.

Next up is Jay Nixon, Missouri's long time Attorney General. He was set to take on incumbent Matt Blunt, but Matt Blunt mysteriously announced he would not seek a second term - proclaiming he had accomplished all he set out to do. (Some people say that there is much more to this story) Instead, he'll face the winner of the Republican primary -  either Sarah Steelman or Kenny Hulshof. SurveyUSA says:

MO Statehouse Still Leans To Democrat Takeaway, 3 Months to Vote ... But, Momentum with GOP: In an election for Missouri Governor today, 08/01/08, 95 days to the vote, Democrat Jay Nixon defeats either of his likely Republican opponents, according to this SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KCTV-TV in Kansas City and KSDK-TV in St. Louis. Today, Nixon, Missouri's Attorney General, defeats Republican Congressman Kenny Hulshof 48% to 42%; Nixon defeats Republican State Treasurer Sarah Steelman 50% to 41%. But, Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released ten weeks ago, Nixon has lost ground. Then, Nixon led Hulshof by 24 points and led Steelman by 25 points. Today, Nixon leads Hulshof by 6 points and Steelman by 9. Against either Republican, Nixon carries at least half of women and voters age 50+. Men and younger voters split their vote if Hulshof is the Republican nominee, and narrowly prefer Nixon in a race against Steelman. Against Hulshof, 15% of Republicans cross over to vote for Nixon; against Steelman, 20% of Republicans cross over. Should Missouri voters be required to produce a photo-ID when they vote? 64% of likely voters say "yes." Those who say "yes" favor each of the Republican candidates by 8 points; those who say "no" favor Nixon by 2 ½:1.

A mixed bag for Jay Nixon. The good news is the poll shows him beating both potential challengers. The bad news is they are gaining ground. If you are in Missouri, see Jay's website to find out how you can lend a hand.

And last, but certainly not least.......Phill Kline.  Intolerant, wingnut, asshat extraordinaire in Johnson County, Kansas. The same Phill Kline that had been harassing women's clinics in Kansas and was defeated in the 2006 election for Kansas Attorney General. After his crushing defeat, the Kansas GOP stubbornly appointed him to the recently vacated Johnson County District Attorney position.  At the time, he promised that he would not seek re-election. Being the honorable man that he is, he recently filed for......re-election. He now faces Steve Howe in a Republican primary. Incidentally, Steve Howe and the rest of the experienced attorneys in the DA's office were unceremoniously fired, without cause, on Phill Kline's first day in office. So, how do the Republican voters in NE Kansas (suburban Kansas City) feel about Phill Kline?  SurveyUSA says:

Johnson County KS GOP Primary: Challenger Howe Has Lead Over Incumbent DA Kline: In a Republican primary for Johnson County District Attorney today, 07/31/08, five days until votes are counted, former Assistant District Attorney Steve Howe unseats incumbent DA Phill Kline, 52% to 44%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KCTV-TV in Kansas City MO. Among women, Howe leads by 13 points; among men, Howe leads by 4. Among voters age 18 to 49, Kline leads by 5; among voters age 50+, Howe leads by 19. Among voters who identify themselves as pro-life, Kline, known for investigating abortion clinics and filing criminal charges against one operated by Planned Parenthood in Overland Park, leads 2:1. Among those identifying as pro-choice, Howe leads 5:1. Among the 18% of voters who have already voted in the contest, Howe leads by 4 points; among those considered likely to vote on or before election day, Howe leads by 9. In a low-turnout Primary, small last-minute swings can materially influence the outcome. The contest is close enough, and Kline's profile high enough, that the final five days of campaigning may make a difference.

Ouch. Incumbent Kline is losing 44% to Howe's 52%. On the way to breakfast Sunday morning, I passed a hand made yard sign that read "Please God --- Anybody but Kline."  Amen, neighbor....Amen.  It seems like Johnson County voters don't much care for Kline's particular brand of wingnuttery. But, the race isn't over and Kline could make a comeback based on name recognition alone. If you are in Johnson County, Kansas or anywhere near Johnson County, Kansas --- get out to defeat Phill Kline. He simply must go....regardless of whether that leaves Democrats a stronger opponent in the long run. His terms as both Attorney General and Johnson County District attorney have been nothing short of an embarrassment for the state of Kansas. And there is no doubt that the women of Kansas - even Republican women - will rest a little easier knowing that Phill Kline won't be poking around in their medical records anymore. It is time for Johnson County voters - of all political stripes - to reject the extremist politics of Phill Kline and deliver the final blow to his political career.

Update: The "Please God - Anybody but Kline" sign wasn't the only eye-popping sign that I wandered by in Kansas yesterday:

The primary election will be held in Missouri tomorrow, and below are all of the state Democratic races which will be on the ballot. Jay Nixon will likely be our next governor, as polls show him handily leading both Sarah Steelman and Kenny Hulshof. Unlike the Hillary/Obama fight, in which there was a certain level of respect that the two candidates had for each other, this is a personal, acrimonious brawl which is melting down the Missouri Republican Party in 2008. The poison which the Republicans normally throw on us is being used on each other to great effect, for instance:

Steelman has an entire website up documenting Kenny Hulshof's misdeeds.

SurveyUSA. 5/16-18. Likely voters. MoE 2.5% (No trend lines)

This is an open seat vacated by one-term Republican gubernatorial failure Matt Blunt. Jay Nixon's strength is not just good for Missouri (obviously), but has potential national implications.

The more I think about it, the best presidential picks are "chemistry" picks, those that put two nominees together who like each other and work well with each other (like Gore or Cheney). Veep nominees that attempt to compensate for a weakness only serve to highlight that weakness (like Lieberman or Bentsen). And very few veep nominees can deliver geography (like Bentsen or Edwards). But when the two candidates like each other and work well together in purpose and message, it's pretty powerful.

And on that front, while she's not my favorite veep pick (which is still Richardson), I think that Sen. Claire McCaskill would qualify brilliantly. She may be perhaps Obama's most loyal and hard-working surrogate, and she'd nicely complement Obama's message of change. And if you see them together, they are a great team.

Normally, I'd flat out oppose it, given that she'd cost us a Senate seat. But the Missouri Governor is sworn in before the President of the United States, meaning that if McCaskill was our vice presidential nominee, her replacement would be chosen by Gov. Jay Nixon.

When it comes to super-delegates, we have all heard the names of the 'known unknowns'. The most understated advantage Obama has going forward is that 76 unpledged delegates are chosen by their constituents after the primary or caucus is over. Twelve of them have already been named and another two will be named on Thursday for New Jersey. So far, Obama has picked up six add-ons, Clinton one and the other five, including three from Tennessee and Oklahoma, remain uncommitted.

There isn't much more to say or do about the votes that have already taken place, but it is not too late to influence the choice of add-ons in New Jersey and 39 other constituencies. More below the fold...

A perfect storm is brewing over the Bush administration, with more revelations coming out every day. And there are more and more revelations coming out against John McCain as well. MoveOn reveals the top ten things that you should know about John McCain, yet you don't:

1. John McCain voted against establishing a national holiday in honor of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. Now he says his position has "evolved," yet he's continued to oppose key civil rights laws.1

2. According to Bloomberg News, McCain is more hawkish than Bush on Iraq, Russia and China. Conservative columnist Pat Buchanan says McCain "will make Cheney look like Gandhi."2

3. His reputation is built on his opposition to torture, but McCain voted against a bill to ban waterboarding, and then applauded President Bush for vetoing that ban.3

The blog of the Kansas City Star is reporting that the Missouri Democratic Party has picked its last two superdelegates today.

One is the State Auditor, Susan Montee.  Montee, to my knowledge, was the earliest statewide officeholder in Missouri to endorse Obama.  I know she was for Obama before McCaskill.

The other superdelegate is the the Attorney General, Jay Nixon, who will be the Democratic candidate for Governor.

More after the fold.

Presidential years are not the most active in terms of gubernatorial races, and 2008 is no exception, with only 11 states holding elections, only 5 of which are not entirely safe for the incumbent party. But there has been some movement within those 5 races, as many of them have gotten considerably (and unexpectedly) more competitive in the past few months.

This is cross-posted on Campaign Diaries.

On February 26th, the filing period began in Missouri. On that day, 317 candidates filed for office. 19 filed for statewide office, 23 filed for Congress. 25 filed for the state senate. 237 for the state house. And 13 for circuit judgeships.

Since then, the number of candidates has risen to 401 (yeah, I know it's a rise of 85 in 16 days of filing). So before we take a look at the scene, here's a prediction from State House Democratic floor leader Paul LeVota:

Rep. Paul LeVota (D-Independence) foresees a great election year for Democrats and says he has the numbers to back him up. LeVota believes Democrats can pick up 13 seats, which would give them the majority in the 163-seat chamber. He says the numbers favor Democrats.

On that bit of boldness, let's go into the filing!

From today until March 25th, Missouri candidates have the opportunity to file for office

Today saw 317 candidates file. 19 for the five statewide offices. 23 for the 9 seats in Congress, 25 for the 17 open state senate seats, 13 for circuit judgeships, and 237 for the 163 seats in the Missouri State House.

So, here's a summary of events so far..

Four Republicans filed for Governor. US Rep. Kenny Hulshof and Treasurer Sarah Steelman are the best known. I have no idea who Scott Long of Mountain View is. Richard Kline of Gipsy is an ultrafrequent candidate who is best known for being the nominee in the 8th district in 1996 because Bill Emerson died after a legal deadline. Kline won 10% in 1996 in an election that Jo Ann Emerson as an Independent.

Jay Nixon is unopposed so far. And Chief Wana Dubie (Libertarian) has not filed.

Some more?

Missouri Lt. Governor Peter Kinder announced that he is withdrawing from the Republican Primary for Governor.

SPRINGFIELD, Mo. — Missouri Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder stunned a crowd of fellow Republicans Friday by telling them he has decided to end his campaign for governor and will instead run for re-election.

"I will stand down from the governor's race," Kinder said, saying he wanted to avoid an internal Republican battle that would make it easier for the likely Democratic nominee, Attorney General Jay Nixon, to win this November.

Given that current Representative Kenny Hulshof has announced he's running for Governor, it makes sense for the Republicans to have a less crowded field to avoid a nasty primary. Of course, in the same article current state treasurer Sarah Steelman says she's staying in the race.

Hopefully, she'll stay true to her word forcing a contested Republican primary. This would be helpful for current Attorney General Jay Nixon who is running uncontested in the Democratic primary.

Crossposted from Show Me Progress:

It's Hulshof (pictured at left with Bush), Kinder, and Steelman on the GOP side of the governor's race, and my guess is that Hulshof will be the one to beat.

It's true that he's never run for statewide office and has no statewide organization in place, as Kinder and Steelman do. He doesn't have any name ID around the state either, for the same reason. The lack of an organization could be important, but the name ID? Tell the truth. How many of the Republican voters know who Kinder and Steelman are either? One in 10? In 25?

The GOP retirements in the House just keep coming, it seems, though in this case, it's more that the retiree is looking to move up: Missouri Republican Kenny Hulshof will retire to run for Governor:

Rep. Kenny Hulshof , R-Mo., has announced plans to retire from Congress at the end of his term in order to seek the GOP nomination to succeed Missouri Gov. Matt Blunt .

Hulshof announced plans to run for governor in hopes of keeping the state house in Republican hands. Blunt is not seeking re-election. "We need a state government that knows its place, does its job well, and then gets out of the way of the American spirit," Hulshof said. "Missourians reject blind partisanship, and they are demanding new ideas and innovative leadership," he added.

Blunt, the son of House Minority Whip Roy Blunt , R-Mo., has been hampered by mediocre approval ratings. He had been polling poorly against Democratic state Attorney General Jay Nixon, who was prepared to challenge him and now becomes the Democrats’ leading contender.

Like seemingly every Republican in DC, Hulshof has been looking to get out of Washington for a while; last year he placed his name in contention for a position as President of the University of Missouri.

Hulshof is joining a crowded Republican primary which already includes two Republicans previously elected statewide, Lieutenant Governor Peter Kinder and State Treasurer Sarah Steelman.

So on the bright side, there will certainly be a primary brawl on the GOP side.

Hulshof's announcement leaves an open seat in MO-09, a district with a Republican bent of R+6.5. It would be pretty inhospitable territory for Democrats under normal circumstances, but an open seat in 2008 hardly qualifies as "normal circumstances".

Our current candidate is State Rep. Judy Baker, who had already planned to run against Hulshof. With Hulshof's departure, however, it's rumored that several other Democratic heavyweights may jump into the race: subscription-only Roll Call speculates about former Lieutenant Governor Joe Maxwell and former State House Speaker Steve Gaw, while the Columbia Tribune suggests state Sen. Wes Shoemyer may jump in, in addition to Maxwell. As of now, only Baker is in, so we'll have to see how things shake out.

With luck, though, it will be yet another competitive district out of dozens upon dozens in 2008.

Hulshof's entry into the Governor's race muddies the GOP primary, as previously mentioned. While Hulshof won't be directly tied to the Matt Blunt administration, as Kinder certainly will, he can certainly be painted as a reliable vote for Bush and the Republican failures of the past, having voted the party line 93% of the time while in Congress. He'll also suffer from a name-recognition disadvantage, as both his primary opponents (as well as the prospective Democrats) have been elected statewide before.

Per Swing State Project, it appears Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan will not challenge Nixon in the primary on our side, which is fine news.

With a three-way Republican primary, things look fairly good for us right now in the Governor's race, with Nixon having a head start campaigning and fundraising, and with the Republican brand name tarnished from Bush and Blunt. But given Missouri's recent history in statewide (and presidential) races, I doubt this race is going to be a cakewalk for anybody:

MO-Pres, 2000: Bush (R) 51, Gore (D) 47
MO-Gov, 2000: Holden (D) 50, Talent (R) 49
MO-Sen, 2000: Carnahan (D) 51, Ashcroft (R) 49
MO-Sen, 2002: Talent (R) 50, Carnahan (D) 49
MO-Pres, 2004: Bush (R) 53, Kerry (D) 46
MO-Gov, 2004: Blunt (R) 51, McCaskill (D) 48
MO-Sen, 2004: Bond (R) 56, Farmer (D) 43
MO-Sen, 2006: McCaskill (D) 50, Talent (R) 47

I think it's fair to expect a close race, both for Missouri's governorship, and for its 11 electoral votes.

Missouri's Republican Governor Matt Blunt announced today that he would not run for a second term.  Along with an appropriate level of rejoicing, a few are asking why.

For an unpopular Republican governor locked in a tight battle for reelection, this cannot be good:

Scott Eckersley, a lawyer fired from Gov. Matt Blunt's office, filed a suit today that accuses several top Blunt aides of ordering the illegal destruction of state e-mails to prevent potentially damaging messages from being turned over to reporters.

The suit contends that Eckersley was fired for repeatedly pressing Blunt aides with warnings that such orders violated state record-retention and open-records laws. Eckersley's firing violated state law protecting whistle-blowers, according to the lawsuit.

So if Eckersley is telling the truth, the Blunt administration not only illegally deleted public documents for political reasons, but fired the guy who had the temerity to advise them that they might be breaking the law.

And subsequently the Blunt team took it upon themselves to destroy his reputation:

The governor's office claimed that Eckersley was fired for doing a shoddy job, tardiness, lying and using his state computer to do work for his father's private health care business.

A media packet provided by the Blunt administration at the time of the firing claimed Eckersley had registered for a "group sex Internet site" and noted that Blunt's chief of staff had questioned whether Eckersley used illegal drugs.

As a response to this, Eckersley has now sued for defamation, wrongful firing, violating whistleblower protection laws, and violation state open-records laws.

And now, of course, the Blunt administration can delete nothing, lest the court sanction them for destroying discoverable evidence.

Blunt was narrowly elected governor in 2004, riding Bush's victory in Missouri to a victory over Claire McCaskill. It's been all downhill from there for the youngest governor in the nation.  He is up for reelection this fall, and has had dismal approval ratings for essentially his entire tenure, and is trailing his strong Democratic opponent, Attorney General Jay Nixon, by five points according to Rasmussen.

In fact, Blunt has long been considered the most endangered Republican governor up for election in 2008, even more so than Indiana's own unpopular GOPer, "My Man" Mitch Daniels.

I can't imagine that a lawsuit involving the destruction of public documents, the firing of a potential whistleblower and the subsequent smearing of the whistleblower, would help Blunt climb out of that hole.

Research 2000 for the Post-Dispatch and KMOV-TV. 11/12-15. Likely voters. MoE 3.5% (No trend lines)

Those are terrible numbers for Blunt, who is the most endangered Republican governor in 2008 in a state that is suddenly not looking as Red as it was in 2004.

From the same poll:

The added bonus for those numbers is that the candidate haters can't use them to argue their candidate is more "electable" than the others, or that any one candidate (cough Hillary cough) is doomed to failure. All our candidates can win this thing.

And more importantly than that, it's clear that Democrats are well-poised to take advantage of Republican corruption in Missouri to capture the governorship and the state's electoral votes. This will be a serious battleground, and Republicans don't cede power easily or cleanly. But we'll have a better shot at success than we've had in a while.

Matt Blunt, the wingnut governor of Missouri, shows such touching "concern" for woman who have abortions. He has convened a "scientific" task force that would determine the affect of abortions on women. Never mind that the article states that he has already started with the conclusion that it has negative effects on women -- contradicted by Ronald Reagan's own surgeon general, Everett Koop.

Rasmussen. 10/10. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (8/23 results)

Back in June, a Research 2000 poll gave Nixon a 50-40 lead over Republican Gov. Matt Blunt. Either way, Blunt is in the low 40s, which is in the danger zone for any incumbent.

Few people are paying attention to the 14 gubernatorial races that will be decided in the next 15 months (3 are happening this fall, and the 11 remaining are set for 2008). Yet, these contests will play a major role in deciding who holds control of Congress in the next decade: The governors who will be elected in those 14 states will hold control of redistricting after the next census, and each party wants to be ready for maximal gerrymandering in 2011.

With that in mind, let's rank these races, from the most vulnerable to turnover to the one where the incumbent party feels the safest. It immediately appears that very few of these races are likely to be contested at all, especially the ones that will be decided in 2008. Democrats and Republicans will swap Louisiana and Kentucky this fall, and then fight in only  two-three states next year. A stark contrast to the 2006 cycle.

The first 4 races are listed after the jump. The full rankings and detailed descriptions of all 14 races is available here, on CampaignDiaries.com