It's strange to find George Bush's heavily politicized Office of Management and Budget predicting that Democrats will retake the White House this year, but that's the only reasonable interpretation of this OMB table (PDF) attached to the 2008 budget. Permit me to explain (h/t).

The table shows federal indebtedness since 1940 both in actual dollar amounts and as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product. Interesting in a dry and dull sort of way, especially the GDP column. The massive debt from WWII gradually was drawn down to 32.6% of GDP by the time Carter left office. However 12 years of radical Republican rule quickly doubled that figure (in dollar amounts, the federal debt tripled). Pappy Bush managed to push it up to 66.2% before he left office. Clinton then brought the debt back down to 57.4%, but Dubya turned that trend right around.

OMB projects that by the time Bush leaves office he will have driven the federal debt back up to his father's precise level of achievement, 66.2% of GDP. Of course, by wrecking the economy Dubya may actually manage to surpass his Pappy in this one respect.

Anyway, it's clear that OMB expects a Democrat to win the WH in 2008 because it projects that indebtedness (as a percentage of GDP) will immediately start to decline after 2009. The last Republican to manage to do that was Nixon.

Last week, U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) grilled White House budget director nominee Jim Nussle at Nussle's Senate confirmation hearing. The interchange, which you can watch here, was absolutely extraordinary. Sanders forced Nussle to go on record admitting that at a time the White House is trying to prevent better-funding children's health care programs, he supports giving the members of Wal-Mart's Walton family alone a tax break worth more than $30 billion.

Now, just today, the Associated Press reports that Sanders is using his filibuster power to block Nussle's nomination, putting his entire confirmation in jeopardy. The question now is whether Harry Reid will support the filibuster or buckle to the White House.

The exodus continues, 'White House budget director Rob Portman is resigning and will be replaced by former Iowa Rep. Jim Nussle' - According to the TERENCE HUNT of The Associated Press on the WaPo web site.

Nussle has been an adviser in Iowa for Giuliani's campaign (so I guess both he and Portman are BOTH abandoning a sinking ship).

Portman held the Congressional seat in Cincinnati that brought us 'Mean' Jean Schmidt when he resigned.

Look for the White House to use this to try to paint the dems as the runaway spenders.

The last one out will most likely keep the lights on to continue burning fossil fuels...

Portman said the president "is in a good position" to contest the Democratic-controlled Congress over spending if necessary. The White House has issued some veto threats against spending bills in recent days, and more are coming, the budget director said.

You are Rep. Jim Nussle. You decide to vacate your seat to run for Governor of Iowa.

The Republican Governor's Association, headed by Mitt Romney, chips in $1.2 million.

Romney himself throws in $100K -- the largest contribution Nussle received the entire campaign.

How do you reward such largess?

You join the Giuliani campaign.

How much did Giuliani give to Nussle's gubernatorial effort?

Zero.

Culver did well for another, nonsubstantive reason. He's about a foot taller than Nussle. That makes Culver look "more gubernatorial" on the tube. He simply looks the part.

While Culver's wife, Mari, likes to joke about him being a "big lug" in their television commercials, this "lug" factor is important. In politics, as in other occupations, if you look like you know what you are doing, people often assume you do. It may not be fair, but it happens, and it puts the short guys at a disadvantage on the screen.

It's like when you go bowling and hit a strike. Tom Latham hit one and it sounds like BAM BAM BAM.

The question that follow is:

IS TOM LATHAM THE BOWLING BALL OR THE PIN? And what about Seldon Spencer?

Democrats now lead the named-congressional horserace by 13 points, a surge in support that takes the Democrats up to 54 percent of the vote and doubles their lead from two weeks ago. For the first time, the Democrats' lead in the named-ballot is above the generic lead, suggesting the candidates are adding to the Democratic trend.  

In the U.S. Senate, the Democrats have also made gains in the Senate races, noting that in the competitive Republican-held Senate seats, the named-Democrats are up by 10 points (52 to 42 percent).

There will be a wave on November 7th, with the Iraq issue critical to its strength. Strategically, we think Democrats need to assume this is inevitable and then focus on the few things that take the election into more and more districts and states. The Democrats need to talk about the change they will bring, starting with major efforts to achieve energy independence.

Iraq is the main driver of the meltdown for the Republicans, underscoring Tom Friedman's commentary yesterday that we may be witnessing "the jihadist equivalent of the Tet offensive." The electoral crash has been accompanied by a surge in anger over Iraq, reaching epic proportions: only a quarter of likely voters now have positive feelings about the waequivalent of the Tet offensive." The electoral crash has been accompanied by a surge in anger over Iraq, reaching epic proportions: only a quarter of likely voters now have positive feelings about the war.  

ARIZONA (Senate)

SurveyUSA. 10/14-16. Likely voters. MoE 4.6% (9/16-18 results)

Rasmussen. 10/15. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/18 results)

I detect a faint pulse on this race.

COLORADO (4th CD)

SurveyUSA. 10/15-17. Likely voters. MoE 4.4% (9/18-20 results)

I've heard ominous rumblings about this race and these numbers seem to confirm that things might not be going well.

FLORIDA (Governor)

Mason-Dixon. 10/16-17. Likely voters. MoE 4% (9/20-22 results)

ILLINOIS (Governor)

Rasmussen. 10/15. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/7 results)

INDIANA (2nd CD)

Research 2000 for the South Bend Tribune and WSBT-TV. 10/16-17. Likely voters. MoE 5% (9/15-17 results)

IOWA (Governor)

Research 2000 for KCCI-TV. 10/16-17. Likely voters. MoE 4% (9/11-12 results)

MAINE (Governor)

Rasmussen. 10/17. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/18 results)

With Granholm's recent surge in Michigan, Baldacci is now the most endangered Democratic incumbent at the governor, house, or senate levels.

MARYLAND (Governor, Senate)

SurveyUSA. 10/15-17. Likely voters. MoE 3.8% (9/17-19 results)

NEW YORK (20th CD)

Sienna College (PDF). 10/16-17. Likely voters. MoE 3.9% (No trend lines)

This poll should temper some of the giddiness over numbers showing Democrats sweeping out most of the GOP dreck in New York state. It doesn't mean that this poll is right and the others showing Gillibrand leading are wrong. It just means that polls are polls, and oftentimes they are wrong.

WASHINGTON (8th CD)

SurveyUSA. 10/15-17. Likely voters. MoE 4.7% (9/24-26 results)

This race appears static and neck and neck. GOTV will determine the winner. If you are in the Seattle area, you've got your mission -- get Burner over the finish line first.

WISCONSIN (Governor)

St. Norbert College for Wisconsin Public Radio. 10/9-16. Likely voters. MoE 5% (No trend lines)

Race tracker wiki: AZ-Sen CO-04 FL-Gov IL-Gov IN-02 IA-Gov ME-Gov MD-Sen MD-Gov NY-20 WA-08 WI-Gov

There is a lot in the story, but this was my favorite part:

Sweeney was quoted in the Saipan Tribune on Jan. 15 [2001] as saying reports of poor working conditions in the CNMI were overblown, and that he had seen worse sweatshops back home in New York. Carlson said Sweeney was "absolutely not" aware of any severe mistreatment of workers or forced prostitution before he made these comments.

U.S. Rep. George Miller, D-Calif., a longtime champion of legislation to change CNMI wage and immigration laws, traveled to the islands in 1998 [snip].

Problems were obvious "unless you choose not to look at the facts on the ground," Miller said, adding: "A blind pig could run into the human rights violations and the exploitation of workers on the islands."

That sums up the modern Republican Party: Blind Pigs.

And we have three weeks to take them out.

To the jump...

Market Shares for the Chicago Tribune. 10/8-11. Likely voters. (9/7-10 results)

Illinois voters are unhappy with Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich, but they like Republican challenger Judy Baar Topinka even less, giving the incumbent the advantage less than a month before the election, a new Tribune/WGN-TV poll shows.

IOWA (open)

Seizer for the Des Moines Register. 10/8-11. Likely voters. MoE 3.5% (9/10-13 results)

Among likely voters backing Culver, 82 percent say their minds are made up. Among Nussle's supporters, 73 percent say they've locked in their vote.

While the vast majority of likely voters remain loyal to their party's gubernatorial candidate, independents now prefer Culver over Nussle, 43 percent to 33 percent. In the mid-September Iowa Poll, Nussle had a 2-point edge over Culver among independents.

MICHIGAN

Seizer for the Detroit Free Press. 10/8-11. Likely voters. MoE 3.9% (8/28-30 results)

Women prefer Granholm 54% to 37% in the new poll, more than twice the margin in August. Men are evenly split. In the five-county metro Detroit area, Granholm went from a 10-point lead in August to an 18-point lead now.

EPIC/MRA for the Detroit News. 10/10-12. Likely voters. MoE 4% (10/2-3 results)

MINNESOTA

Star Tribune. 10/6-11. Likely voters. MoE 3.4% (9/13-15 results)

As in previous polls, both candidates are supported by more than eight in 10 members of their own parties. But DFL voters are more engaged in the election than Republicans, with 69 percent of them professing a great deal of interest compared with 54 percent of Republicans.

Among independent voters, Pawlenty's 10-point advantage in September has dwindled. Pawlenty now has 35 percent to 34 percent for Hatch [...]

Hatch has gained ground on Pawlenty among women and more affluent voters. He now has a 52 percent to 32 percent lead among women compared with 43 percent to 40 percent in September.

Among voters who make $100,000 or more the two are now even. Last month, Pawlenty led 57 percent to 30 percent.

Geographically, Hatch is strong in Hennepin and Ramsey counties. He polled 54 percent -- double what Pawlenty polled. The two are closer, 43 percent for Pawlenty to 40 percent for Hatch, in the balance of the metro area and are even at 42 percent in the rest of the state.

Race tracker wiki: MI-Gov MN-Gov IL-Gov IA-Gov

Democrat Chet Culver has moved ahead of Republican Jim Nussle in a hotly contested governor's race that was tied a month ago.

A new Des Moines Register poll shows Culver leading Nussle, 46 percent to 39 percent, among Iowans who say they definitely plan to vote, or who have already voted, in the Nov. 7 election.

Now there are quite a few Diaries out about this story, but I want to focus on how to use the Abramoff scandal to WIN in November.

The key is to use this moment to reframe the Abramoff Scandal narrative.

It has been about a gang of scamps ripping off casinos. Sort of an Oceans Eleven staring Jack, George, Karl, Grover, Ralph, Ed and the gang.

When that is the scandal narrative the Republicans win. The scandal gets no tractions because nobody cares if a casino is ripped off.

We need to change the narrative.

The Abramoff scandal is about forced sex, human trafficking and selling out ones values and principles for money and power

The framing that drives this home is Abramoff's work on the Commonwealth of North Mariana Islands (CNMI).

It was a proven strategy in Georgia. And now Charlie Brown is showing how this is a winning issue for Democrats this fall.

Learn how on the jump...

Atheist Jim Nussle is running against Presbyterian Chet Culver for Gov. Terrace Hill, if Nussle wins, should be called Whorehose Hill.

"Any important Republican who comes out and says they didn't know me is almost certainly lying," he says. Such lies are not just, well, lies, but dumb to boot, he adds, for, as his own humiliations suggest, old e-mails never die; they just sit on hard drives, waiting to be subpoenaed and then to be leaked to the press. "This is not an age when you can run away from facts," he declares. "I had to deal with my records, and others will have to deal with theirs."

I've been swimming through Republican corruption. Over the last couple of months I've been trying to compile a list of Republican candidates in this cycle who have multiple links to Jack Abramoff and the slush fund he was managing for the GOP.

Earlier this year, a reporter told Newshour:

EAMON JAVERS: I have one source who says it could be as many as 60 members of Congress that they are looking at.

I think he might be right.

Join me on the jump to meet The Abramoff 64 (34 in competitive races)...

I've been reviewing old Jack Abramoff files, documents and news clips.

Not surprisingly, the number of Republicans with ties to Jack Abramoff and the Slush Fund behind the Gingrich/DeLay/Bush era of incompetence and corruption is growing.

At the beginning of August I posted a Diary about 21 GOP Candidates tied to Jack Abramoff. Since then I've kept digging. I've gotten some nice leads, tips and suggestions. More names have been added to the list.

Now I need your help.

53 Republican candidates in this election cycle have an Abramoff problem. (And I suspect that more names will be added to the list as the research continues).

I need your help to promote these links and to help me make more connections between these candidates and Jack Abramoff and the GOP Culture of Corruption.

Each of the Abramoff 53 has multiple ties to the scandal. Some connections are politically embarrassing, some smell fishy and some are clear criminal acts.

So, if you're ready, please join me on the jump and meet the Abramoff 53...

The IowaPac has raised about $70,000 in this cycle, which is odd because Nussle is running in a race that won't use any of this money. One explanation might be that it's left over from his Congressional campaigns, but why add another $70k? I'm very confused. And I was even more confused when I saw that he spent $140,000 on a federal campaign, even though he is not running for Congress:

I've been reviewing old Jack Abramoff files and how the scandal connects to a number of GOP Candidates for the elections this fall.

Not surprisingly, it seems like everybody in the Grand Old Party was hooked into the Abramoff/Gingrich/DeLay/Bush era of incompetence and corruption.

As Jack told Vanity Fair:

"Any important Republican who comes out and says they didn't know me is almost certainly lying," he says. Such lies are not just, well, lies, but dumb to boot, he adds, for, as his own humiliations suggest, old e-mails never die; they just sit on hard drives, waiting to be subpoenaed and then to be leaked to the press. "This is not an age when you can run away from facts," he declares. "I had to deal with my records, and others will have to deal with theirs."

And there is more to the paper trail than just email. There are invoices, donations, Bills, Resolutions, appropriations and endless clues embedded in press releases, news accounts and old Web sites.

Some are politically embarrassing, some smell fishy and some are clear criminal acts.

To the Jump...

1. A formal declaration of disapproval or objection issued by a concerned person, group, or organization.

2. An individual or collective gesture or display of disapproval.

1. The use of direct, often confrontational action, such as a demonstration or strike, in opposition to or support of a cause.