Yesterday, Jon Bruning made it official:  he bailed out of the Nebraska Senate race in the face of an inevitable Mike Johanns victory (at least in the primary).  He said nobody asked him to quit, nobody suggested he quit, he just did it for the team.  But his day will come:  

"If I do my job, political opportunities will come,’’ said Bruning, who is serving his second term as attorney general. "The timing wasn’t with me this time, but I’m confident the time will come someday.’’

So we haven't seen the last of him in various races for offices.  But will we see him actually elected?

Nebraska Attorney General and US Senate candidate Jon Bruning seems to follow the George Bush model of enforcing the law:  if he doesn't like it, he doesn't have to follow it.  Not only that, but when someone points out that he's not following the law, he gets downright snotty.  

Seems Mr. Bruning hasn't filed a single Equal Housing Opportunity case since he took office six years ago.  Now the USEEOC threatens to yank funding for the Nebraska EEOC because no lawsuits have been filed.

Here's the rest of the story:

After running the Research 2000 poll of Nebraska yesterday, several people asked if the results could be broken down by congressional district. Research 2000 was kind enough (since they weren't obligated to do so) to generate the numbers by CD. Remember, the samples for each CD are much smaller (probably around a third), so MoE's will be higher than for the overall sample.

Kleeb ran for Congress in 2006 in the Third Congressional District, hence his best numbers will be there.

QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Scott Kleeb? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not)

           VERY                      VERY    NO
           FAV      FAV     UNFAV    UNFAV  OPINION

CD#1       10%      13%       5%       1%     71%
CD#2       10%      14%       4%       1%     71%
CD#3       16%      21%      12%       4%     47%

QUESTION: If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Scott Kleeb, the Democrat, and Mike Johanns, the Republican?
     
          JOHANNS      KLEEB      UNDECIDED      

CD#1        61%         25%         14%
CD#2        60%         27%         13%
CD#3        57%         32%         11%

QUESTION: If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Scott Kleeb, the Democrat, and Jon Bruning, the Republican?

          BRUNING      KLEEB      UNDECIDED      

CD#1        58%         25%         17%
CD#2        55%         28%         17%
CD#3        52%         34%         14%

Race tracker wiki: NE-Sen

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 11/12-14. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)

If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Scott Kleeb, the Democrat, and Mike Johanns, the Republican?

If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Scott Kleeb, the Democrat, and Jon Bruning, the Republican?

Clearly, we start this one in the hole, assuming Kleeb even runs. But as you'll see below in the crosstabs, Johanns and Bruning are both very well known statewide in Nebraska, while 63 percent have never heard of Kleeb. And those who know Kleeb love him -- scoring 28/9 favorable/unfavorable ratings, or better than a 3-1 ratio. The very popular Mike Johanns is just above 2-1, at 59/25.

If Kleeb runs, he'll need to amp up his name ID quickly, meanwhile hoping Bruning and Johanns get ugly in their primary. It's within the realm of possibilities, and if anyone can do it, it'll be Kleeb. Remember, he started off probably worse than this in the most conservative congressional district in 2006:

in 2006 Kleeb managed to score a little more than 45 percent of the vote in Nebraska's third district in an open seat race, a feat made all the more impressive given the fact that the district is the sixth most Republican in the country, leaning about 24 points more Republican than the nation as a whole in presidential elections (according to the Cook Partisan Voting Index). If you extrapolate Kleeb's 2006 showing relative to the Cook PVI statewide, he would have received about 54 percent -- more than enough to win a Senate election.

This, of course, is not to say that Kleeb would necessarily receive 54 percent of the vote in a 2008 Senate bid, should he make one. History is no determinant of the future. That said, Kleeb is a proven vote-getter, not only in a district significantly more Republican than the nation as a whole but in a district significantly more Republican than the whole state of Nebraska. And given that, I would not be quite so hasty in downgrading his chances in the event that he does make a run.

Full crosstabs below the fold. Incidentally, I also polled Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey, and his numbers were little better than Kleeb's. They both start at "generic Democrat" levels against well-known Republicans.

On the web: Draft Kleeb

Race tracker wiki: NE-Sen

A fascinating and encouraging editorial from the hometown newspaper of North Platte, Nebraska today calls on 2006 congressional candidate Scott Kleeb to step up to the plate and run for Senate:

Kleeb is interested and has shown poise and moxie. He represents the fresh voices of Nebraska who speak as true moderates.

Kleeb did much better in the House race than observers ever thought a Democrat would. In the last couple weeks, he appeared to be winning. Then he was hit with some smelly last-minute campign tactics from Republicans, who fired both barrels.

Kleeb would have to run long and hard to win the Senate seat. At this stage, he must be considering if it would tarnish his image in the opinions of thousands of casual voters if he were to lose two consecutive elections.

That would be a shame. Kleeb shines. He's intelligent and educated plus he knows how to "cowboy up". He came through the last campaign with a smile and high ideals. He continues to care for and work to build the best things in Nebraska.

From the New Nebraska Network:

The table is set. Labor Day is upon us, and a number of political deadlines are approaching. Decisions ready to be made. Political heavyweights ready to enter the arena, and some apparently ready to exit.

I've devoted quite a bit of virtual ink to this race, repeating myself dozens of times, going over every single sign, detail, rumor, or press account to get a better picture of what I believe is the most important race in Nebraska - for Nebraska - in 2008.

The evolution of this race - from the initial rumors of Hagel's retirement, to Mike Fahey's potential entry into the race, Hagel's March "announcement," and Bruning's primary challenge, followed by Kerrey's interest in a potential candidacy, has been one of the most fascinating stories of this young election cycle.

"We did not abandon Chuck Hagel. He abandoned us."

And so it begins. The opening shots in the right-wing blogosphere's "Lieberman moment." I've spent a lot of time on the similarities between this race and Lieberman/Lamont (as well as some of the differences.) But you have to wonder if the right-wingers see it this way.

Well, maybe not. Venture with me into enemy territory, after the flip...

Thursday, Jon Bruning announced that he is officially challenging Chuck Hagel for the Republican nomination for Senate. Bruning took care to characterize it as a primary challenge to Hagel, a risky move if Hagel decides not to run for reelection.

We talked a lot on Thursday and Friday here about the similarities between this race and the CT-Sen primary in 2006. Which, of course, brings us to the question: what happens if Hagel loses?

Jon Bruning may be the only person in Nebraska politics who is still running under the assumption that Chuck Hagel will be running for reelection. Today, he announced his candidacy for U.S. Senate, characterizing it as a primary challenge to Chuck Hagel:

"I've chosen this path because conservative Nebraskans deserve a leader who will support and defend the principles and values of the Republican Party," Bruning said in a statement. "I am disappointed we have not received that leadership from Chuck Hagel."

Your guess is as good as mine at this point. Despite all of the signs showing Chuck Hagel likely pursuing a reelection bid, the news in the past week has been bizarre and contradictory. A prominent Republican donor has thrown himself into the conversation, Hagel's making noises about an independent bid for President, and the chatter among Democrats is ramping up.

So, let's take a look at the facts, the rumors, and everything in between.

Whoever said that Chuck Hagel is invincible had better look at this poll released today by the state Democratic Party. Chuck Hagel is vulnerable and Jon Bruning is not doing much better.

This week: We honor our fallen soldiers. 3,334 American flags were placed on the campus of the University of Nebraska-Omaha for our second annual Tribute To The Fallen. Please take a moment to view the photo gallery. Politics seems trivial at times like these, but the only way to prevent more flags in the ground next year is to elect people who will work to end this war. On that note, we move to the week in Nebraska politics.

Inside: Jon Bruning has some shocking polling numbers, Kyle Michaelis on Nebraska politics in the new media, the Daily Nebraskan releases Jon Bruning's columns, and UNO Democrats are ready to project that Chuck Hagel is definitely seeking reelection to the Senate.

Also at Swing State Project
I've held off on making this call for a while now, but I feel comfortable saying it now. Chuck Hagel is running for reelection:

We figured out about a couple weeks ago here at UNO Dems that Lee Terry was running for reelection, and not the Senate. It wasn't until Thursday that we figured out why. We're ready to say with a great level of confidence that Chuck Hagel is running for reelection, and that Jon Bruning will challenge him for the nomination.

Also posted at Swing State Project.

In assessing the lay of the land in Nebraska, as it is becoming increasingly likely that Chuck Hagel is seeking reelection, and almost a certainty that Jon Bruning will be his opponent for the Republican nomination, it's helpful to look back at the last high-profile Republican primary fight in Nebraska, the 2006 governor's race between Tom Osborne and Dave Heineman. What's different, here? And what might we see repeat itself?

This one's a little earlier this week, but the last couple of weeks' editions were a little late, so it all works out.

This may have been the most eventful week in Nebraska politics in a long time. Follow us inside for all the details on the Nebraska Senate race that just got turned completely upside down, the Republican candidate for mayor of Lincoln who doesn't want western Nebraska to have paved roads, Adrian Smith's anemic fundraising, and all the dirt on the upcoming Republican Civil War you can handle.

Jon Bruning all but made it official today. As I predicted last month, Bruning announced today that he will run for Senate no matter what Chuck Hagel's decision is.

More, including Bruning's press statements, on the flip.

With Chuck Hagel once again saying that impeachment could be an option, it felt like the right time to visit this topic: What if Chuck Hagel does decide to run for re-election?

Let's say, tomorrow, a month from now, six months from now, Chuck Hagel wakes up, realizes that running for President is a fool's errand, and decides that he's going to just run to keep his presumably safe U.S. Senate seat.

He could be the Joe Lieberman of 2008. Follow me after the jump...

The dominoes are falling despite Chuck Hagel's non-announcement Monday. Today, long-rumored candidate Jon Bruning announced that he would form an exploratory committee to run for U.S. Senate.

Bruning started running television ads back in October 2006, when he was running for re-election as attorney general - unopposed. He's been itching to get into this race for a while now, and was visibly frustrated at Hagel's announcement, a fact not lost on reporters.

But while Bruning was the first candidate to jump into the race, he will certainly not be the last. Republicans are ready and eager to go after an open Senate seat in Nebraska.