Welcome back for more speculation! Today we'll continue the final elimination series of possibilities for Obama's v.p.

This series began with the bottom 14 names, and eliminates the bottom vote-getter(s) and replaces them with new name(s) from just up the list, reaveraging as we go (so each thread's bottom vote-getter[s] may not be the ones cut--who's cut will be determined by the new averages generated from this series's votes only). I'm hoping we'll have five or six candidates left when Obama picks and see if the DKos wisdom of crowds is. It should take about 14 threads to get all of the top candidates in the poll again, out of the 28 or so total threads. Fmr. Gov. Ray Mabus (MS) was eliminated in the previous round, and Gov. Tim Kaine (VA) rotated in to replace him this time. Sen. Jack Reed (RI) made his Shermanesque statement, so Fmr. Vice President Al Gore rotated in to replace him.

Please discuss any v.p. candidates in the comments. The most correct format would be to simply state their name, unless you have further comments. "Oh my God, where's Jane/Johnny Politician?!" would be a bit alarmist, don't you think? I'm sure they're fine. I'm happy to hear all ideas, and of course I'm no official gatekeeper, so play nice.

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In deference to the 80s band Men at Work: "Who can it be now?  Who can it? Who can it?"

[From the Frog Pond]

Monica Langley, of the Wall Street Journal, is reporting on the short-lists for vice-presidential nominees:

Obama: "His focus now includes five colleagues in the U.S. Senate — Joseph Biden, Evan Bayh, Chris Dodd, Hillary Clinton and Jack Reed — and two governors, Tim Kaine of Virginia and Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas, according to Democratic operatives, though he could still make a different pick."

McCain: "They include ex-Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, a rival during the Republican primaries; Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, with whom he has a strong friendship; and former Rep. Rob Portman of the battleground state of Ohio. Republicans also are touting Sen. John Thune of South Dakota, Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, and campaign adviser Carly Fiorina, ex-CEO of Hewlett-Packard Co., among others."

I'm going to make a few observations about these picks.  

In no particular order, starting with Senator John McCain's choices.

Welcome back for more speculation! Today we'll continue the final elimination series of possibilities for Obama's v.p.

This series began with the bottom 14 names, and eliminates the bottom vote-getter(s) and replaces them with new name(s) from just up the list, reaveraging as we go (so each thread's bottom vote-getter[s] may not be the ones cut--who's cut will be determined by the new averages generated from this series's votes only). I hope that'll be complicated enough to dissatisfy and confuse everyone equally. I'm hoping we'll have five or six candidates left when Obama picks and see if the DKos wisdom of crowds is. It should take about 14 threads to get all of the top candidates in the poll again, out of the 28 or so total threads. Sen. Bill Nelson (FL) was eliminated in the previous round, and Rep. Robert Wexler (FL) rotated in to replace him this time.

Please discuss any v.p. candidates in the comments. The most correct format would be to simply state their name, unless you have further comments. "Oh my God, where's Jane/Johnny Politician?!" would be a bit alarmist, don't you think? I'm sure they're fine. I'm happy to hear all ideas, and of course I'm no official gatekeeper, so play nice.

(continued below the fold)

Welcome back for more speculation! Today we'll continue the final elimination series of possibilities for Obama's v.p.

This series began with the bottom 14 names, and eliminates the bottom vote-getter(s) and replaces them with new name(s) from just up the list, reaveraging as we go (so each thread's bottom vote-getter[s] may not be the ones cut--who's cut will be determined by the new averages generated from this series's votes only). I hope that'll be complicated enough to dissatisfy and confuse everyone equally. I'm hoping we'll have five or six candidates left when Obama picks and see if the DKos wisdom of crowds is. It should take about 14 threads to get all of the top candidates in the poll again, out of the 28 or so total threads. Fmr. Sen. Max Cleland (GA) and Rep. Chet Edwards (TX) were eliminated in the previous round, and Sen. Russ Feingold (WI) and Fmr. Sen. Sam Nunn (GA) rotated in to replace them this time.

Please discuss any v.p. candidates in the comments. The most correct format would be to simply state their name, unless you have further comments. "Oh my God, where's Jane/Johnny Politician?!" would be a bit alarmist, don't you think? I'm sure they're fine. I'm happy to hear all ideas, and of course I'm no official gatekeeper, so play nice.

(continued below the fold)

Welcome back for more speculation! Today we'll continue the final elimination thread of possibilities for Obama's v.p.

This elimination series began with the bottom 14 names, and eliminates the bottom vote-getter(s) and replaces them with new name(s) from just up the list, reaveraging as we go (so each thread's bottom vote-getter[s] may not be the ones cut--who's cut will be determined by the new averages generated from this series's votes only). I hope that'll be complicated enough to dissatisfy and confuse everyone equally. I'm hoping we'll have five or six candidates left when Obama picks and see if the DKos wisdom of crowds is. It should take about 14 threads to get all of the top candidates in the poll again, out of the 28 or so total threads. Fmr. Sen. Bob Graham (FL) was eliminated in the previous round, and Sen. Claire McCaskill (MO) rotated in to replace him this time.

Please discuss any v.p. candidates in the comments. The most correct format would be to simply state their name, unless you have further comments, in which case please include them. "Oh my God, where's Jane/Johnny Politician?!" would be a bit alarmist, don't you think? I'm sure they're fine. I'm happy to hear all ideas, and of course I'm no official gatekeeper, so play nice.

(continued below the fold)

Welcome back for more speculation! Today we'll continue the final elimination thread of possibilities for Obama's v.p.

This elimination series began with the bottom 14 names, and eliminates the bottom vote-getter(s) and replaces them with new name(s) from just up the list, reaveraging as we go (so each thread's bottom vote-getter[s] may not be the ones cut--who's cut will be determined by the new averages generated from this series's votes only). I hope that'll be complicated enough to dissatisfy and confuse everyone equally. I'm hoping we'll have five or six candidates left when Obama picks and see if the DKos wisdom of crowds is. It should take about 14 threads to get all of the top candidates in the poll again, out of the 28 or so total threads. Sen. Jeff Bingaman (NM) was eliminated in the previous round, and Fmr. Sen. Bob Graham (FL) rotated in to replace him this time.

Please discuss any v.p. candidates in the comments. The most correct format would be to simply state their name, unless you have further comments, in which case please include them. "Oh my God, where's Jane/Johnny Politician?!" would be a bit alarmist, don't you think? I'm sure they're fine. I'm happy to hear all ideas, and of course I'm no official gatekeeper, so play nice.

(continued below the fold)

Welcome back for more speculation! Today we'll continue the final elimination thread of possibilities for Obama's v.p.

This elimination series began with the bottom 14 names, and eliminates the bottom vote-getter(s) and replaces them with new name(s) from just up the list, reaveraging as we go (so each thread's bottom vote-getter[s] may not be the ones cut--who's cut will be determined by the new averages generated from this series's votes only). I hope that'll be complicated enough to dissatisfy and confuse everyone equally. I'm hoping we'll have five or six candidates left when Obama picks and see if the DKos wisdom of crowds is. It should take about 14 threads to get all of the top candidates in the poll again, out of the 28 or so total threads. Gov. Brad Henry (OK) was eliminated in the previous round, and Fmr. Gov. Howard Dean (VT) rotated in to replace him this time.

Please discuss any v.p. candidates in the comments. The most correct format would be to simply state their name, unless you have further comments, in which case please include them. "Oh my God, where's Jane/Johnny Politician?!" would be a bit alarmist, don't you think? I'm sure they're fine. I'm happy to hear all ideas, and of course I'm no official gatekeeper, so play nice.

(continued below the fold)

http://www.creators.com/...

Support women = Support Sebelius = Snub Clinton = Snub Clinton supporters = Snub women? I think something slipped there.

NYT:

Democrats said they thought it was less likely now than it was a month ago that Mr. Obama would choose Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York as his running mate, though they said she remained in consideration and that she was being vetted.

If he does not choose Mrs. Clinton, several Democrats said, it would be difficult for him to name any woman — like Gov. Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas, someone for whom he has had warm words. Both Clinton and Obama advisers said such a move could create a backlash among women who supported Mrs. Clinton.

Help me understand this theory. Women, and let's be clear that they are not talking about "Clinton loyalists" they said "women", who voted for Clinton would be upset if Obama was NOT a sexist?

One of the most often talked-about issues around the selection of a Vice Presidential candidate is the cost-benefit analysis of what the party stands to lose if they vacate their current elected office (if any; Mitt Romney over on the Republican side doesn’t have one, for example; on the other hand, if McCain picked Bobby Jindal and they won, it would hand the Louisiana Governorship over to Democrat Mitch Landrieu).

So here is, to the best of my knowledge, what a successful VP bid would mean for the various individuals that are speculated about for the Democratic nomination.

The Obama campaign has been pretty successful at being leak-free on the running mate front. Only two or three people outside of the candidate have a clue as to his thinking, and they aren't talking. That doesn't mean people like me can't have a little fun, and make idle speculation about the person who Obama will choose to run for Vice President. Here are the top twelve, as I see them:

Welcome back for more speculation! Today we'll poll the second-tier possibilities for Obama's v.p., from my new slimmed-down field of 28.

This elimination series will begin with the bottom 14 names, then eliminate the bottom vote-getter(s) and replace them with new names from just up the list for the next thread, reaveraging as we go (so each thread's bottom vote-getter(s) may not be the ones cut for the next--who's cut will be determined by the new averages generated from this elimination series's votes). I hope that'll be complicated enough to dissatisfy and confuse everyone equally. I'm hoping we'll have five or six candidates left when Obama picks and see if the DKos wisdom of crowds is. It should take about 14 threads to get all of the top candidates in the poll again, out of the 28 or so total threads.

Please discuss any v.p. candidates in the comments. The most correct format would be to simply state their name, unless you have further comments, in which case, "I believe _ _ should be Obama's v.p. running mate because..." "Oh my God, where's Jane/Johnny Politician?!" would be a bit alarmist, don't you think? I'm sure they're fine. I'm happy to hear all ideas, and of course I'm no official gatekeeper, so play nice.

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This is a plea to Barack Obama and his advisers , to not pick Kathleen Sebelius as the VP because i worry she's just not ready for the national stage spotlight and she's such a terrible fit for Obama..Specially Obama.

Welcome back for more speculation! Today we'll poll the top 13 average vote-getting possibilities for Obama's v.p. in average votes over all of these threads' polls, plus Sen. Jeff Bingaman (NM), who I think needs another round of voting to get a good average before I cut the field down.

Next thread I'm going to narrow the field from three to two tiers of 14--if Obama hasn't decided by then. I'll reset the averages then, too, and run a single-elimination poll each day going through the two remaining tiers, so maybe we'll have five or six candidates left when Obama picks and see if the DKos wisdom of crowds is. It should take about 14 threads to get all of the top candidates in the poll again of the 28 or so total threads in this elimination series.

Please discuss any v.p. candidates in the comments. The most correct format would be to simply state their name, unless you have further comments, in which case, "I believe _ _ should be Obama's v.p. running mate because..." "Oh my God, where's Jane/Johnny Politician?!" would be a bit alarmist, don't you think? I'm sure they're fine. I'm happy to hear all ideas, and of course I'm no official gatekeeper, so play nice.

(continued below the fold)

Welcome back for more speculation! Today we'll poll the the top gubernatorial possibilities for Obama's v.p. in average votes over all of these threads' polls. I decided to include Wesley Clark, Max Cleland, Al Gore, Joe Sestak and Anthony Zinni as well, since they have also had top-level executive experience in some governmental role (and to fill out the poll!).

I'm going to do one more thread polling the top candidates' overall before cutting names to narrow the field to two tiers of 14--if Obama hasn't decided by then. I'll reset the averages then, too, and run a single-elimination poll each day going through the two remaining tiers, so maybe we'll have five or six candidates left when Obama picks and see if the DKos wisdom of crowds is.

Please discuss any v.p. candidates in the comments. The most correct format would be to simply state their name, unless you have further comments, in which case, "I believe _ _ should be Obama's v.p. running mate because..." "Oh my God, where's Jane/Johnny Politician?!" would be a bit alarmist, don't you think? I'm sure they're fine. I'm happy to hear all ideas, and of course I'm no official gatekeeper, so play nice.

(continued below the fold)

Welcome back for more speculation! Today we'll poll the the top 12 possibilities for Obama's v.p. in average votes over all of these threads' polls. 12 instead of 14 because of a three-way tie for thirteenth place, and because I want to work in Sen. Jeff Bingaman (NM), the most plausible candidate I haven't polled yet.

I'll alternate "break-out" polls with the top average vote-getting candidates for two more threads after this. I'm going to do the top governors/former governors and one more top candidates' thread before cutting 14 names to narrow the field to two tiers of 14--if Obama hasn't decided by then. I'll reset the averages then, too, and run a single-elimination poll each day going through the two remaining tiers, so maybe we'll have five or six candidates left when Obama picks and see if the DKos wisdom of crowds is.

Please discuss any v.p. candidates in the comments. The most correct format would be to simply state their name, unless you have further comments, in which case, "I believe _ _ should be Obama's v.p. running mate because..." "Oh my God, where's Jane/Johnny Politician?!" would be a bit alarmist, don't you think? I'm sure they're fine. I'm happy to hear all ideas, and of course I'm no official gatekeeper, so play nice.

(continued below the fold)