SurveyUSA. 5/16-18. Likely voters. MoE 2.5% (No trend lines)

This is an open seat vacated by one-term Republican gubernatorial failure Matt Blunt. Jay Nixon's strength is not just good for Missouri (obviously), but has potential national implications.

The more I think about it, the best presidential picks are "chemistry" picks, those that put two nominees together who like each other and work well with each other (like Gore or Cheney). Veep nominees that attempt to compensate for a weakness only serve to highlight that weakness (like Lieberman or Bentsen). And very few veep nominees can deliver geography (like Bentsen or Edwards). But when the two candidates like each other and work well together in purpose and message, it's pretty powerful.

And on that front, while she's not my favorite veep pick (which is still Richardson), I think that Sen. Claire McCaskill would qualify brilliantly. She may be perhaps Obama's most loyal and hard-working surrogate, and she'd nicely complement Obama's message of change. And if you see them together, they are a great team.

Normally, I'd flat out oppose it, given that she'd cost us a Senate seat. But the Missouri Governor is sworn in before the President of the United States, meaning that if McCaskill was our vice presidential nominee, her replacement would be chosen by Gov. Jay Nixon.

On February 26th, the filing period began in Missouri. On that day, 317 candidates filed for office. 19 filed for statewide office, 23 filed for Congress. 25 filed for the state senate. 237 for the state house. And 13 for circuit judgeships.

Since then, the number of candidates has risen to 401 (yeah, I know it's a rise of 85 in 16 days of filing). So before we take a look at the scene, here's a prediction from State House Democratic floor leader Paul LeVota:

Rep. Paul LeVota (D-Independence) foresees a great election year for Democrats and says he has the numbers to back him up. LeVota believes Democrats can pick up 13 seats, which would give them the majority in the 163-seat chamber. He says the numbers favor Democrats.

On that bit of boldness, let's go into the filing!

Missouri's 9th District, home of retiring Republican Rep. Kenny Hulshof, is not what you'd usually consider a swing district. Bush defeated Kerry 59-41 here, and Hulshof hasn't faced a strong challenge since he edged former Democratic Rep. Harold Volkmer in 1996.

This is not an ordinary year for Democrats, however, and Hulshof's retirement (he's running for Governor) has spurred strong Democratic interest in the race, with State Rep. Judy Baker, former Missouri Assembly Speaker Steve Gaw, and Marion County Presiding Commissioner Lyndon Bode.

Seemingly nervous about yet another open-seat election, the Republicans are pulling out the big guns...and by that, I mean former Mizzou football star and Detroit Lion Brock Olivo (jeepdad has a nice diary on this).

I have nothing against former athletes seeking elected office. Many of them are highly intelligent, articulate, and have a good deal to contribute to the political discourse.

I sense that Olivo is not one of them.

First, his qualifications:

"Not only was I football player, but I also was in social studies class, and I have a passion for how this country works," Olivo said.

Social studies, eh? I majored in European history in college. You can expect my application for the EU Presidency shortly.

Seriously, social studies? Say what you will about Heath Shuler, but he had a successful career outside of football, and had been somewhat politically active prior to his Congressional run.

Olivo, on the other hand, apparently hasn't voted in his life:

Olivo, the former Mizzou football star now running for Congress, has never voted before in an election, public records show.

Reached today, Olivo confirmed that he has never cast a ballot, in Missouri or anywhere else.

"I’m a recovered apathetic," Olivo, 31, said, adding that "I am first to admit that I was wrong."

A recovered apathetic. Sounds inspiring.  

He must have some kind of vision then, right? Something driving his run for Congress? Or at least a pretty strong commitment to his party and its platform?

Er...no. Not even "lower taxes, support the troops" stuff.

"I’m a Republican for now, that’s all I can say," Olivo said. "I believe in hard work. I believe in values, and my platform will surface in due time, and I’ll be glad to sit down with you and talk to you about that."

OK, so he has no platform whatsoever as of now...but, you know, he believes in hard work and he took social studies. Splendid!

Don't believe me? Check it out for yourselves:

To be honest, I kind of feel bad for the guy after watching that.

Olivo doesn't have the nomination sewn up, of course (and frankly, I'd be shocked if he got it). There are a number of Republican state representatives considering a run (and I assume they're a bit better prepared for one).  

But hope springs eternal.

This is a tough, tough district, but the national Democratic party is taking it seriously. And frankly, I don't even want to speculate on what might happen in the event of a Brock Olivo nomination...

...but it will be highly risible.

From today until March 25th, Missouri candidates have the opportunity to file for office

Today saw 317 candidates file. 19 for the five statewide offices. 23 for the 9 seats in Congress, 25 for the 17 open state senate seats, 13 for circuit judgeships, and 237 for the 163 seats in the Missouri State House.

So, here's a summary of events so far..

Four Republicans filed for Governor. US Rep. Kenny Hulshof and Treasurer Sarah Steelman are the best known. I have no idea who Scott Long of Mountain View is. Richard Kline of Gipsy is an ultrafrequent candidate who is best known for being the nominee in the 8th district in 1996 because Bill Emerson died after a legal deadline. Kline won 10% in 1996 in an election that Jo Ann Emerson as an Independent.

Jay Nixon is unopposed so far. And Chief Wana Dubie (Libertarian) has not filed.

Some more?

As most here know, Missouri governor Matt Blunt, a Republican, is not running for re-election. The poor guy saw the writing on the wall. His popularity is in the toilet and his re-election numbers were grim.

Kenny Hulshof, a Republican from Columbia, is running to replace Blunt. That leaves his U.S. House seat ripe for the picking. Several quality Democrats have signed up for the gig, including state representative Judy Baker, former House Speaker Steve Gaw, and Marion County Presiding Commissioner Lyndon Bode.

In a sign of how much of a Democratic year it is going to be, Republicans are finding a hard time fielding a candidate in a district that has been held by Kenny Hulshof (R) for many years. Hulshof is running for governor to replace Matt Blunt, and has left a void in the MO-9th.

The Republicans have finally fielded a candidate--former Missouri football player Brock Olivo.

Olivo's interview shows that he is a very beatable candidate. He appears to have no political philosophy, could not identify a single issue that he cares about, and mentions that he has done more than play football, he took a social studies class.

http://www.youtube.com/...

The Democratic field already has two strong contenders: Judy Baker (who has raised well over 100K already) and Steve Gaw.

Missouri Lt. Governor Peter Kinder announced that he is withdrawing from the Republican Primary for Governor.

SPRINGFIELD, Mo. — Missouri Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder stunned a crowd of fellow Republicans Friday by telling them he has decided to end his campaign for governor and will instead run for re-election.

"I will stand down from the governor's race," Kinder said, saying he wanted to avoid an internal Republican battle that would make it easier for the likely Democratic nominee, Attorney General Jay Nixon, to win this November.

Given that current Representative Kenny Hulshof has announced he's running for Governor, it makes sense for the Republicans to have a less crowded field to avoid a nasty primary. Of course, in the same article current state treasurer Sarah Steelman says she's staying in the race.

Hopefully, she'll stay true to her word forcing a contested Republican primary. This would be helpful for current Attorney General Jay Nixon who is running uncontested in the Democratic primary.

Crossposted from Show Me Progress:

It's Hulshof (pictured at left with Bush), Kinder, and Steelman on the GOP side of the governor's race, and my guess is that Hulshof will be the one to beat.

It's true that he's never run for statewide office and has no statewide organization in place, as Kinder and Steelman do. He doesn't have any name ID around the state either, for the same reason. The lack of an organization could be important, but the name ID? Tell the truth. How many of the Republican voters know who Kinder and Steelman are either? One in 10? In 25?

The GOP retirements in the House just keep coming, it seems, though in this case, it's more that the retiree is looking to move up: Missouri Republican Kenny Hulshof will retire to run for Governor:

Rep. Kenny Hulshof , R-Mo., has announced plans to retire from Congress at the end of his term in order to seek the GOP nomination to succeed Missouri Gov. Matt Blunt .

Hulshof announced plans to run for governor in hopes of keeping the state house in Republican hands. Blunt is not seeking re-election. "We need a state government that knows its place, does its job well, and then gets out of the way of the American spirit," Hulshof said. "Missourians reject blind partisanship, and they are demanding new ideas and innovative leadership," he added.

Blunt, the son of House Minority Whip Roy Blunt , R-Mo., has been hampered by mediocre approval ratings. He had been polling poorly against Democratic state Attorney General Jay Nixon, who was prepared to challenge him and now becomes the Democrats’ leading contender.

Like seemingly every Republican in DC, Hulshof has been looking to get out of Washington for a while; last year he placed his name in contention for a position as President of the University of Missouri.

Hulshof is joining a crowded Republican primary which already includes two Republicans previously elected statewide, Lieutenant Governor Peter Kinder and State Treasurer Sarah Steelman.

So on the bright side, there will certainly be a primary brawl on the GOP side.

Hulshof's announcement leaves an open seat in MO-09, a district with a Republican bent of R+6.5. It would be pretty inhospitable territory for Democrats under normal circumstances, but an open seat in 2008 hardly qualifies as "normal circumstances".

Our current candidate is State Rep. Judy Baker, who had already planned to run against Hulshof. With Hulshof's departure, however, it's rumored that several other Democratic heavyweights may jump into the race: subscription-only Roll Call speculates about former Lieutenant Governor Joe Maxwell and former State House Speaker Steve Gaw, while the Columbia Tribune suggests state Sen. Wes Shoemyer may jump in, in addition to Maxwell. As of now, only Baker is in, so we'll have to see how things shake out.

With luck, though, it will be yet another competitive district out of dozens upon dozens in 2008.

Hulshof's entry into the Governor's race muddies the GOP primary, as previously mentioned. While Hulshof won't be directly tied to the Matt Blunt administration, as Kinder certainly will, he can certainly be painted as a reliable vote for Bush and the Republican failures of the past, having voted the party line 93% of the time while in Congress. He'll also suffer from a name-recognition disadvantage, as both his primary opponents (as well as the prospective Democrats) have been elected statewide before.

Per Swing State Project, it appears Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan will not challenge Nixon in the primary on our side, which is fine news.

With a three-way Republican primary, things look fairly good for us right now in the Governor's race, with Nixon having a head start campaigning and fundraising, and with the Republican brand name tarnished from Bush and Blunt. But given Missouri's recent history in statewide (and presidential) races, I doubt this race is going to be a cakewalk for anybody:

MO-Pres, 2000: Bush (R) 51, Gore (D) 47
MO-Gov, 2000: Holden (D) 50, Talent (R) 49
MO-Sen, 2000: Carnahan (D) 51, Ashcroft (R) 49
MO-Sen, 2002: Talent (R) 50, Carnahan (D) 49
MO-Pres, 2004: Bush (R) 53, Kerry (D) 46
MO-Gov, 2004: Blunt (R) 51, McCaskill (D) 48
MO-Sen, 2004: Bond (R) 56, Farmer (D) 43
MO-Sen, 2006: McCaskill (D) 50, Talent (R) 47

I think it's fair to expect a close race, both for Missouri's governorship, and for its 11 electoral votes.

The St. Louis Post Dispatch is reporting that 6-term Republican Congressman Kenny Hulshof will throw his hat into the quickly becoming crowded Republican primary to run for MO governor.  Hulshof had been seen as wanting to move on from the House of Representatives for a while now, including a failed bid to get the top job at the University of Missouri system in 2007.

Yesterday the House passed landmark civil rights legislation, H.R. 923, the Emmett Till Unsolved Civil Rights Crime Act, by a vote of 422-2. The bill, sponsored by Representatives John Lewis (D-GA) and Kenny Hulshof (R-MO), would re-open hate crime cases during the Civil Rights Era, focusing on investigating and prosecuting murder cases occurring prior to 1970.

The two votes against? Georgia's Lynn Westmoreland and that darling of people who aren't paying close enough attention to reality, Ron Paul.

The legislation was expected to sail through the Senate via unanimous consent today, which marks the anniversary of the kidnapping and murder of three young civil rights workers (Andrew Goodman, James Chaney, and Michael Schwerner) in Philadelphia, Mississippi, and is also the anniversary of Edgar Ray Killen’s conviction for those crimes two years ago. But Senator Tom Coburn wrecked that plan by placing a hold on the bill, purportedly for budgetary reasons. He isn't willing to spend less than $10 million to see justice done, but is fine sending blank check after blank check to Bush to sqander in Iraq.

Senators Dodd and Leahy sponsored the companion legislation in the Senate. Here are their statements condemning Coburn's action:

"My colleagues and I have fought long and hard for this bill in order to bring to justice people who have perpetrated heinous crimes based on racial hatred," said Dodd.  "It has been a bipartisan effort, and I am angry that one of my colleagues is delaying this bill’s passage under false pretense.  While we allow another day, another week, another month to pass before enacting this legislation, we allow racist criminals to live the lives of innocent people when they should be apprehended and brought to justice.  After so many decades, to further delay justice and solace to the families of the victims of these horrific crimes is simply unimaginable."    

"The Senate should not wait another day to take up this important legislation," Leahy, Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee said.  "This legislation provides necessary tools for our federal government, in cooperation with state and local officials, to vigorously investigate and prosecute these cases.  As each day passes, new evidence trickles in while older evidence fades and witnesses age.  We must have a sense of urgency about these unsolved cases – justice cannot afford to wait."

And here is Rep. John Lewis, speaking on the House floor in support of the legislation:

Missouri Democrats were beginning to savor the possibility of claiming Congressman Ken Hulshof's seat in a special election.  Hulshof has been seeking an appointment to President of the University of Missouri.  For a week or so it looked as though he may win that appointment.  Political people discussed it here and at gatherings in Missouri.  

Alas, according to STLToday, the St. Louis Post Dispatch's web-site, Hulshof will not be offered the position.  I didn't see any other diaries about this so I thought I'd bring you all up to date.

(Cross-posted from my blog, An Enduring Democratic Majority.)

Republican Congressman Kenny Hulshof's apparent interest in the Presidency of the University of Missouri has created quite a stir in the Show-Me-State recently. Last week Hulshof made the announcement:

From the Columbia Tribune:

"My professional career has been dedicated to public service," said Hulshof, who was elected to the House in 1996. "I consider this position a rare opportunity to extend this service in a unique way. It is one of the very few jobs for which I would consider leaving Congress."

This afternoon Kenny Hulshof, the R congressman from MO-9, confirmed rumors which have been widely heard in Missouri that he is indeed a candidate for the University of Missouri System President.  From today's Columbia Daily Tribune:

Further to the diary by RandySF on Monday: speculation continues to grow here in mid-Missouri that Congressmen Kenny Hulshof is in line to take the recently vacated position of University of Missouri System president.

It looks like Missouri is about to become 2008's Ohio. Not only are we poised to take over the governorship, but no less than two House pickup opportunities have presented themsleves to us.

I decided to take a look at Missouri's 9 House seats tonight to see if any of them seem vulnerable. Here's what I found. Forgive me if this diary sounds like I'm mumbling to myself the whole time.

In Missouri, we currently hold MO-1 (Clay, solid Dem), MO-3 (Russ Carnahan, likely Dem), MO-4 (Skelton, leans Dem, but only because he holds the seat, else likely Repub.), and MO-5 (Cleaver, solid Dem).

That leaves MO-2 (Akin), MO-6 (Graves) , MO-7 (Blunt), MO-8 (Emerson), and MO-9 (Hulshof). Akin's district used to be a suburban St. Louis swing district but got much more Republican in the last round of redistricting (its like 60% GOP now, IIRC). If we were ever to win Blunt's district, we'd have won 400 other districts along with it. Emerson is too smart and moderate of a pol to lose. So, that leaves  Sam Graves's MO-6 and Kenny Hulshof's MO-9.

I hope Duane Burghard will get serious about winning this House seat. Democrats can't afford to run half-hearted campaigns this year. Even losing campaigns need to operate aggressively, so that there aren't any "safe" GOP districts from which money and effort can be shifted to "key" races. At this point in the race, a couple of volunteers and a few hours of hard work a week would be sufficient to put Burghard in the running -- and that's exactly where he needs to be.

Any Democrats in the Columbia area? Have a talk with him. Don't make me come down there.

Read the rest at Kn@ppster