Why $110?  Because that is the target price that my market forecasting system uses......which works pretty well, the math for it being borrowed from the science of ballistics (a good bit of finance actually comes from physics-the prominent Black-Scholes model for example)

The heavy downward market moves last week were based on the financial status of American credit institutions. The heavy upward market moves this week are based on massive movements of the world's biggest market players as they move their capitol between gold, oil, metals, and equities in mad rushes to preserve and increase value.

I strongly reccomend that small investors sail directly to port, and take cover in the most secure positions possible. The credit, commodities, and equities markets are going to undergo extreme volitility as huge sums of big player money attempts to protect itself as global economic activity contracts.

*Every day, you read and hear about how
the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)
and Standard & Poor’s (S&P 500® is
used in reference not only to the index
but also to the 500 actual companies, the
stocks of which are included in the index)
performed for the day with the
information sometimes leading the nightly news.

It is hyped, promoted, obsessed over and
followed passionately, but let me ask you
a question:

What exactly is the Dow Jones?

I just watched the report about those hostages in Columbia being released after five years of captivity. I know this has something to do with McCain's visit, the official story being just a little implausible. I'm going to take it as a good sign for things improving in Central America. Now on with my original wonderful blog.  

The more I watch this campaign suddenly the more hopeful I get. I see both candidates mostly running a straight forward clean campaign talking about things that are possible for America. I'm impressed, as both candidates seem to be staying away from radical proposals that are sure to be endorsed only by fringe partisan groups. Without being specific you can still infer this by looking at the Fundamentalist's dissatisfaction with McCain and the Progressives growing discontent with Barack Obama. Some may call this centrism and then say it means nothing or anything, others may call it realism knowing it will take moderate solutions to get the reforms the country needs.

Strange title for a blog and it's obvious where I'm going with this before I even start. Still I have nothing else to do right now so stringing a few random sentences together, underneath a title that seems to suggest that all Presidents follow the same script,it being only the times and circumstances that change, will do. One act follows another in perfect lockstep marching to the beat of an agenda that comes from somewhere other than the American people. How do I know this? Age and observation help plus an ability or perhaps neurosis to connect seeming unconnected events.

I mean I have watched America go through two unpopular major wars and have heard the new president running say he wanted to end the war and the suffering imposed on the people here at home and the lucky host country for that war. Only to hear all that fade into talk of responsible troop redeployment and peace with honor and other trite open ended promises that could and often do mean several contradictory things. I have also seen several economic cycles, oil supply problems, banking disasters, housing crunches, Wall street swoons and the list goes on. There's really nothing truly new going on right now, just slight permutations.

The economy is going to be at least bad enough so that we need a new name to call it. A recess is a small indentation while a depression is a larger hole, so I think this new worse economic crisis should by called an Abyssal, and since it comes with inflation, it will be a Stagflationary Abyssal.

While many of us may have had a bit of schadenfreude over Hillary’s getting caught "misspeaking" about her Tuzla, Bosnia junket in an effort to pad her foreign relations dossier by embellishing it with sniper bullets whizzing overhead, we’d do well to recall McCain’s current anniversaries marking a couple of his own major misspeaking moments beginning a year ago today when he tried to convince the American people that Baghdad’s largest open-air shopping district was "like a normal outdoor market in Indiana in the summertime."

And he would be telling the Gospel truth ... as long as normal outdoor summertime markets in Indiana come fully stocked with more than 100 rifle-ready soldiers in armored Humvees (that’s an entire company), three Blackhawk helicopters and two Apache gunships hovering overhead – and let’s not forget bulletproof vests for all those Hoosier customers

As I have diaried here, I am in the commodity market. I just had a fairly disturbing conversation with a company in the food business that I talk to. I had an offer from another company for a lot of product that this food company would normally buy. This contract was offered at almost 10% below the current market price for a year starting in June.

The interesting part is the customer had no interest in doing anything. This company said that they had taken a corporate position that they would neither buy or sell anything except on an "as needed" or "as ordered" basis. They felt the risk of dramatic price movement - in either direction - made forward purchasing or buying too risky. Why is this so important?

We are on our way to a VERY bad day for markets all over the world in the light of Bear Stearns selling to JP Morgan for a measly $2 a share.

The Asian markets (Japan, Korea, Aust, NZ) are already down near or over 2% in the first hours of trading.

(well, the numbers are getting worse as I type)

The following interview was published by Venster, a Shell Oil Co. Dutch-language magazine produced for circulation internally with in the company. The interview is with Shell Oil Company’s CEO, Jeroen van der Veer, and was translated into English by Rembrandt Koppelaar, president of ASPO-NL and contributing Editor to the Oil Drum: Europe. I acquired the interview from a Blog post to the European Tribune that had added commentary by Jerome a Paris. For this Blog I am not using Paris’ commentary but have removed his and added my own. I have rewritten some of the translation to correct some of the improperly written English. I made sure that none of my changes had any affect on the meaning of the translation.

The purpose of this post is to point out a very disturbing trend in oil pricing. There has been much speculation in the media and in the blog sphere that the price of oil today reflects a shortening of supply directly attributed to peak-oil having been reached. The interview with Jeroen van der Veer indicates something radically different is going on. My speculation is that he is right and that the consequences could be dire if unheeded.

Currently, the Bush administration is flaunting 'stimulus checks' to help bolster the flagging economy. So where is this money coming from?

It's a good day to give someone a goat.  

What the F am I talking about?

We are all so worried about our nation and ourselves today.  Me too!  Me too!

It's a bit early in the day for climbing into a bottle of Vodka. I should be on the road to work.  Instead I'm sitting here panicking. I'm personally scared s***less. My palms are sweating.

I'm trying to decide if I should go get my money out of the bank.  I'm REALLY thinking a lot about that.

Seeing a near meltdown in international markets for the past 2 days -- the Fed had an emergency meeting this morning and opted to cut a key rate prior to the US markets opening

under that brain-child Ben Bernanke has cut a key interest rate by 3/4 of a point or 75 basis points.

Bernanke may be a smart intellect, but he sure has been completely ineffective in this role.

Someone asked for the source of one of my quotes the other day and in searching for it I found the  original essay. The quote is the last paragraph. (see link)

In this current election cycle, it is a good idea to know the origins of some of the more baffling (to us) punitive, illogical and downright mean spirited themes, memes and policies being used by both the economic conservatives and the religious right. The following linked and excerpted essay appeared in Harpers Magazine in May of 2005, and traces the history of the rights seeming disdain for not poverty, but the poor, not work as much as those who have to work for a living wage.  Their insistence that wealth is a measure of piety, and the visceral rejection of any kind of safety net whether it be government or church sponsored and maintained, is made clear.

Let There Be Markets:The Evangelical Roots of Economics
GORDON BIGELOW / Harper's Magazine v.310, n.1860, 1may2005
http://www.mindfully.org/...

Some think the subprime mortgage meltdown will have limited impact. The thing is, that is just not so. The big danger was always that the bond insurers, companies such as Ambac and MBIA, would be downgraded from AAA ratings. Now, why is this important? Because what Ambac and MBIA do, in effect, is sell their AAA rating for the use of borrowers who need to fortify their credit ratings for various projects.

But the subprime situation threw everyone a curve.

It even effects as stodgy an industry as life insurance.

We'll be looking at life insurers' exposure to subprime today, to point out just how far-reaching this debacle in truth is.

Because if financial instruments so poorly correlated to the other markets are impaired by subprime, then imagine all the things in between that are, only more so.

The belief that uniform benefit could be had by pure unregulated capitalistic economies died more than a century ago when people realized that pure market economies failed to produce a benefit to society as a whole. This wasn’t a change in thinking from capitalism to socialism as it is often debated now days, but rather a realization that unbridled capitalism exacerbated the conditions that brought about Communism. The great majority of the nation, liberal and conservative, business man and laborer, came to the same conclusion, that being in a fully capitalist society government plays an important roll. That roll is primarily to keep the playing field fair and even so that basic economic principles that benefit man kind can take hold. What had occurred during this time period was that forces gaming the system, chiefly monopolists, took over the open capitalist markets and closed them to the detriment of a great majority of the citizenry.

Note: There is a cadre of GOP conservatives who looked at the landmark victories by Democratic candidates in 2006 and drew the conclusion that conservatives (which these days is a term automatically interchangeable with Republicans) lost their Congressional majorities by abandoning their dedication to core principles. To regain their momentum, these stalwarts believe, they need only convince voters they've come back to their principles. This is the second diary in the ongoing look at the bedrock ideas behind today's conservative movement, with an eye to explaining how each is grounded in myth and misinformation and for the most part, provably wrong factually.

Today's Lesson: The Market Myth

The world might today be a saner place had Adam Smith toiled in obscurity, but then again, I suppose things might be worse. Still, Smith and those who followed and expanded his ideas and came to look upon them as holy writ, have done us much harm. They've elevated the the concept of free markets -- and their inherent power to cure all ills -- to the status of an unquestionable truth. Yet finding a successful real-world example of Smith's idealized market is a formidable task.

What is the result when "persons unknown" have stolen HUGE sums of our
governments dollars and the whole World knows it?
When thieves waylay these huge sums of money, it effects all of the
World markets.  People who run those markets "know" that the actions of the market are not normal.  Example:  All World Markets do not rise
simultaneously.  Nor do all World Markets fall simultaneously.  
When they do-----those people recognize that something is wrong.
The recent increase (two months ago) showed that huge sums of money
from somwwhere not in any other market, has shown up in ALL of the markets
simultaneously.  Something was wrong.
Markets are in the process of attempting to discount these
huge sums of stolen money.  That is where we are now.