As each day passes for George W. Bush's best friend in Oregon, the realization sinks in further that he is going to lose his seat in the US Senate race here this November.  Gordon Smith (R-Bush) has already made it clear to all of us here in Oregon that he has absolutely no use for us besides somehow manipulating a plurality of us to send him back to Washington every 6 years so he can continue to do yet more damage to our country with the rest of his Republican buddies out there.

However, with the recent news that the Senate race in Oregon is tied, our Salmon-Slaughtering Senator's fearful trembles have actually registered on the Richter Scale, and he's got two more pathetic attack ads ready which aim solely at Jeff Merkley, a candidate for the Democratic US Senate nomination and our Democratic Speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives who just presided over one of the most progressive legislative sessions in state history.

The primary is just one week away here in Oregon. When you look at the polls from the past month there's only one conclusion you can make. Oregon Senate candidate and current House Speaker Jeff Merkley is ^climbing up the polls. Here's a snippet from Survey USA:

Eight days until votes are counted in the Democratic Primary for US Senate in Oregon, state House Speaker Jeff Merkley and attorney Steve Novick remain effectively tied, though today Merkley has the nominal advantage, 31% to 27%.

Crossposted at the EENR Blog

Last August, I was offered the job of a lifetime (for me):

Jeff Merkley hired me to be the Netroots Outreach Coordinator for his U.S. Senate campaign.

I started my blogging career as one of the co-founders of Preemptive Karma and later as one of the co-founders of Loaded Orygun. I managed to do some pretty decent work over at those blogs that I’m very proud of. I worked very hard to write solid, independent pieces that reported the goings on in Oregon politics and culture from my progressive perspective.

I interviewed Jeff in 2006 just after the Oregon House flipped from the Karen Minnis led Republican hands to Democrat, due in large part to Jeff’s personal effort and strategic vision. I remember being so impressed by his sharp mind and thoughtful way of speaking. And the way he looked me in the eye when he talked to me—unabashedly honest.

Today, the Steve Novick for U.S. Senate campaign in Oregon released its final TV ad, featuring popular former Governor John Kitzhaber and highlighting both his endorsement of Steve Novick and the endorsements of the Oregon Education Association and newspapers across Oregon including The Oregonian, Medford Mail Tribune, East Oregonian, Ashland Daily Tidings, Portland Tribune, Willamette Week, Portland Mercury and Eugene Weekly.

As Bush Republican Gordon Smith continues to flail about wildly in a blind panic at the realization that he is going to lose the US Senate race here in Oregon this November, Democratic Speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives Jeff Merkley continues to gain momentum in his quest to unseat our infamous salmon slaughtering weasel from Pendleton.

In addition to the recent news that Jeff Merkley is in a statistical tie with Gordon Smith among Oregon voters; more organizations have endorsed Jeff Merkley for Senate this past week, including 21st Century Democrats, and the Humane Society Legislative Fund.

Details below the fold...

A new Rasmussen poll of the Oregon Senate race shows Republican incumbent Gordon Smith still under 50%, for the third month in a row.

Any incumbent who polls below 50% is considered potentially vulnerable and this month’s polling contains even more bad news for Smith—support for his potential Democratic challengers is increasing.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Oregon voters finds Smith leading Jeff Merkley by just three percentage points, 45% to 42%. In late March, he enjoyed a thirteen point lead. In February, he was ahead of Merkley by eighteen points.

When matched against Steve Novick, Smith leads by six percentage points, 47% to 41%. In the March poll, Novick trailed by eleven. In February, the gap was thirteen points.....

In Oregon, Smith is viewed favorably by 55% of the state’s voters, Novick by 46%, and Merkley by 42%. The numbers for both Democrats are trending up.

Those figures include just 18% with a Very Favorable opinion of their incumbent Senator. Thirteen percent (13%) have a Very Favorable view of Novick while 9% say the same about Merkley.

Oregon's primary is May 20, and Smith, though unopposed, has hit the airways with an attack ad aimed at both Democrats, all the while trying to present himself as the "change" candidate ("See? I'm just like Obama! Really! Change!")

The latest SUSA poll (May 1) has Merkley and Novick virtually tied, with Novick at 30% and Merkley at 28%, making up the double digit deficit he had in the April poll.  Given the decent performance of each of them in holding Smith under 50, the NRSC has another race to worry about.

On the Web:
Jeff Merkley for US Senate
Steve Novick for US Senate

Update: The DSCC has responded to Smith's "change" ad:

Race tracker wiki: OR-Sen

[crossposted at Loaded Orygun, Oregon's progressive community...]

Does this qualify as an endorsement? On Friday, during the KPOJ Morning Show in Portland featuring national broadcaster Thom Hartmann, he and broadcasting colleague Carl Wolfson divulged their Senate votes while taking a call from a 70-year old Aloha voter who is also going with Steve.

Click the link for the audio, here's the transcript:

Thom Hartmann: Ben in Aloha, nice to welcome you to the  show, Ben.

Ben in Aloha: Hey, thank you guys, I would really like to  thank that lady for keeping the faith out there. And I would also like to  mention Steve Novick's campaign. I'm 70 years old and I think that Steve is the  best chance that we have to move Oregon forward in the Senate --

Thom: I would tell you Ben, I voted for him yesterday. We  mailed in our ballots this morning.[emph me]

{the rest, below}

We've been voting here in Oregon for a week already, and most of the political attention in our state at the moment might be focused on one certain race.  There's been plenty of attention focused on that one, and that will certainly increase as we get closer to May 20 when our votes are finally tallied.  But there's another major, major, major race here this year, also - we have a great opportunity to finally rid the United States Senate of Gordon Smith, an infamous Bush Republican who likes to pretend that he's a 'moderate' (yeah, and I'm the Pope...).

So now we know why Gordon Smith is trying to manipulate the outcome of our Democratic Primary by releasing attacks against Jeff Merkley -

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Oregon voters finds Smith leading Jeff Merkley by just three percentage points, 45% to 42%. In late March, he enjoyed a thirteen point lead. In February, he was ahead of Merkley by eighteen points.

During the primary race in Oregon there have been a number of signs that Republican Gordon Smith fears his possible Democratic opponent House Speaker Jeff Merkley. Whether it was his campaign's decision to release their fundraising numbers early to counter the positive fundraising press the Merkley Campaign was receiving or his ridiculous email blast I wrote about yesterday. Now, Smith's campaign is on the attack like never before and they've got their sights set on Oregon Senate candidate Merkley. Could this be another indication that the Smith Campaign does not want to face Jeff Merkley in November?

Normally, you'd think Senators facing tough reelection battles would want the highest-profile help their party had to offer. You'd think that for Republicans that would be the incumbent president -- but of course, Bush has the worst disapproval rating since they started measuring that.

So in this, as in so many things, McCain will be standing in for Bush, going on the road for New Hampshire's John Sununu, Maine's Susan Collins, Oregon's Gordon Smith, and Minnesota's Norm Coleman. Because, as the Cook Report's Jennifer Duffy says:

"The interesting thing about McCain is that he may not help anybody, but he's not a drag on anybody," she said.

Yet. He's not a drag on anybody yet. Because he hasn't yet faced a settled Democratic nominee. Because the traditional media has given him a free ride, rarely pointing out that on the votes that matter, McCain's no maverick. When  the Republican party and George W. Bush need him, John McCain is reliably there for them.

How alike are McCain and Bush? MoveOn puts you to the (f'ing difficult) test -- a test a lot of reporters could stand to take before they write their next stories squeeing over all the awesome straight-talking maverickness. If they start writing the story of the John McCain who actually stands in front of them instead of the one in their heads, by November he'll be as much of a drag on Sununu, Collins, Coleman, and Smith as Bush is today.

Race tracker wiki: NH-Sen ME-Sen OR-Sen MN-Sen

Republican Gordon Smith must be shaking in his boots if he's calling for emergency contributions from his supporters. The Gordon Smith campaign sent out an email begging for money to fight back against what they call, "False negative attacks." Here's a snippet from his email:

As Oregonians woke up this morning across our state, they were greeted by an onslaught of false negative attacks against me. Chuck Schumer and liberal Democrat leaders in Washington, D.C have poured more than $300,000 into their misleading television ad, and that is just in the first week. Please make an emergency contribution right now

Crossposted at the EENR Blog

[ Cross-posted from NovickForSenate.org ]

On the recent attack website you launched for Jeff Merkley, novickinsultsdemocrats.com, you used a substantial amount of work that I, and others, created for the Novick campaign and claimed credit for it as your own. This work includes graphics, logo design, photography, and layout design.

While many are buzzing about NC and IN, there's also voting going on RIGHT THIS MINUTE somewhere in Oregon, as voters fill out their ballots and mail them in for counting on May 20th. With just two weeks left before then, all of the downticket campaigns are working out their last bits of pre-count media and GOTV strategy.

Which takes what, in this crazy mixed up political world of ours? Say it with me: MONEY, giant bags of money. And that means there's just enough time for one more ask before the general election.

Steve Novick, leading candidate for the Dem nomination for Senate from Oregon, has made the final call for his rag tag army of supporters to boost him once again. We did $35,000 in two weeks at the end of Q4, and topped it with $60,000 at the end of Q1. It's time to come through again for Steve--but at least you get the treat of reading the ask as written by the man himself. Steve writes as wittily as he speaks, and an amusing treat to be begged for money in such a way...

{...so I'll let him do the talking, below!}

For the first time in decades Democrats in our state get to meaningfully participate in the national presidential primary.  Judging by the reception of his surprise visit to American Dream Pizza, to the plethora of blue lawn signs sprouting like tulips throughout the town, Corvallis is crazy about Barack Obama’s message of hope and unity.

However, in our excitement over the presidential horserace, let’s not forget the other Democratic primary elections listed on this year’s ballot.  One of those is for the right to challenge incumbent U.S. Senator Gordon Smith in November.  Steve Novick is the candidate who bears the most in common with the democratic presidential front-runner, and here are 5 reasons why:

[...a diary about canvassing Portland OR for US Senate candidate Steve Novick, crossposted at LoadedOrygun.]

I suspect some may not laugh at the morbid connotations of 'stumping' for a man with a hook for an arm, but I bet Steve would, and 'canvassing' always makes me think of wrapping people in tent material, like at Boy Scouts summer camp, when you spent the week inside those heavy canvas platform tents.

Meta having been addressed and dispatched, I did indeed compel myself and two children out of bed at 8AM Saturday in order to go walk the streets edumacating Portlanders on Steve Novick, candidate for Senate.

{on the ground diary, below}

Senate Races:

NH-Sen: Rasmussen's latest poll shows Jeanne Shaheen maintaining her eight-point lead over Republican incumbent John Sununu. This race has sat comfortably in the top tier of Democratic pickup opportunities since Shaheen declared her candidacy, and it looks as though that is where it will stay. The New Hampshire race still looks like the strongest Senate challenge to a Republican incumbent this cycle.

NC-Sen: On the heels of the latest Research 2000 poll showing Elizabeth Dole with weak numbers versus Democrats Kay Hagan and Jim Neal (leading Hagan by seven points and Neal by 10), SurveyUSA has polled the Democratic primary race.

With just days to go before the May 6 primary, Hagan now holds a substantial lead over Neal, 38% to 17%. 35% of voters are still undecided, and Neal will have to take a large majority of those undecideds if he is to be the nominee.

OR-Sen: SUSA has polled this race as well, and in contrast to the North Carolina poll, this one shows the race tightening between Democrats Steve Novick and Jeff Merkley.

On the heels of Merkley's recent ad campaign, SUSA shows the race deadlocked, with Novick holding a statistically insignificant two-point advantage over Merkley. Last month, Novick led Merkley by 11 points.

At this point, I wouldn't even hazard a guess as to who is favored.

House Races:

IN-05, IN-07: Primary day in Indiana will also see three competitive races downticket. One is the Republican challenge to nutter Dan Burton in Indiana's 5th, one is the three-headed Democratic challenge to incumbent Andre Carson in IN-07, and one is the Democratic primary for Governor between Jill Long Thompson and Jim Schellinger, which we'll look at in a separate post.

Burton has held his seat since 1982, but has recently come under fire for absenteeism (he apparently prefers taking golf trips to actually casting votes in Congress), and faces his strongest primary challenge in years from fellow Republican John McGoff. McGoff has established a cute little website called "Where's Dan Burton?" to underscore this fact. His attacks must be getting some traction, because Burton has spent $1.2 million to defend his House seat.

In the Seventh District, Andre Carson, who won a March special election to succeed his late grandmother Julia Carson, faces three Democratic opponents in his primary; state Reps. David Orentlicher and Carolene Mays, and former State Health Commissioner Woody Myers.

As the incumbent, Carson is certainly at an advantage, especially as he managed to fend off a surprisingly strong challenge from Republican Jon Elrod in winning his special election by 11 points. Still, with four serious candidates running, it's difficult to say what will happen, especially given the race's racial dynamics:

Carson hopes his brief experience in Washington sets him apart from his seven challengers.

He and two of those challengers — former state Health Commissioner Woody Myers and state Rep. Carolene Mays — are black, and some community leaders worry the crowded field will split the black vote. That could give state Rep. David Orentlicher, who is white, an advantage in the district, which is about two-thirds white.

IL-11: Republicans had been without a candidate in this district after the NRCC's favored recruit, New Lenox Mayor Tim Baldermann, dropped out of this open-seat race. They have apparently finally found a challenger to Democrat Debbie Halvorson, in the person of millionaire Marty Ozinga.

Ozinga has plenty of personal funds and has raised over $400,000 for the race so far, but he's deep in the hole against Halvorson, the Illinois Senate Majority leader, who has over $673,000 on hand and has already made the DCCC's Red To Blue List. IL-11 is a swing district with a PVI of R+1.1, so in a Democratic year, I like Halvorson's chances.

-CQ runs down the House races in the Midwest, and handicaps them here:

No Clear Favorite
KS-02 Boyda (D)
MN-03 Ramstad* (R)
OH-15 Pryce* (R)
OH-16 Regula* (R)

Leans Democratic
IL-08 Bean (D)
IL-14 Foster (D)
IN-07 Carson (D)
IN-09 Hill (D)
MN-01 Walz (D)
WI-08 Kagen (D)

Leans Republican
IL-10 Kirk (R)
MI-07 Walberg (R)
MI-09 Knollenberg (R)
MO-06 Graves (R)
MO-09 Hulshof* (R)
OH-01 Chabot (R)
OH-02 Schmidt (R)

Democrat Favored
IL-11 Weller* (R)
IN-02 Donnelly (D)
IN-08 Ellsworth (D)
KS-03 Moore (D)
OH-18 Space (D)

Republican Favored
IL-06 Roskam (R)
IL-18 LaHood*  (R)
MN-06 Bachmann (R)
OH-14 LaTourette (R)

* denotes retiring incumbent

It's certainly inspiring to note the predominance of Republican seats on this list, particularly in the most competitive categories. For me, though, the biggest pleasant surprise is the listing of Joe Donnelly, Brad Ellsworth and Zack Space in the "Democrat Favored" categories.

Donnelly, Ellsworth and Space all represent Republican-leaning districts. The Indiana representatives hail from a state which has been reliably Republican in presidential election years, and has not given its electoral votes to a Democrat since 1964. These are precisely the kind of districts that a more vibrant and relevant Republican Party would have at the top of its target list. Nevertheless, at least by CQ's analysis, our Democratic incumbents are relatively safe.

MS-01: So the NRCC has responded to the $700,000 bombshell the DCCC dropped in MS-01...by throwing just under eight thousand whole dollars into the race. Meanwhile, the DCCC topped their previous investments with an additional $40,000.

The NRCC previously spent quite a bit here, so maybe they feel like they've done enough...but they better be damn sure if they're going to risk losing an R+10 district. I mean, that can't be good for morale.

Race tracker wiki: NC-Sen NH-Sen OR-Sen IN-05 IN-07 IL-11

Since October, I have put in more hours volunteering on Oregon Senate candidate and Speaker of the Oregon House Jeff Merkley's campaign for United States Senate than I can count.  I do it because I believe that not only will Jeff beat the Republican incumbent Gordon Smith, but that he will become one of the best United States Senators in the country.  In D.C., Jeff will be able to fight for the things that he has in Oregon, ensuring LGBT rights, enhancing protections for unions and working people, and protecting the environment.  My job is to make that happen any way I can, so some fellow bloggers and I are doing a one day fundraiser today for Jeff to try to raise an ambitious $5,000 for the campaign.  I don't know a more deserving candidate, so if you could please help us reach our goal with a donation to Jeff (if you work in Oregon remember that there is a tax credit for your first $50 of political contributions) I would be very grateful.

Here at Daily Kos and at a number of other blogs, I have spent quite a lot of time advocating for candidates I believe will champion progressive causes. Many of you most likely know me because of my long time support for John Edwards. I have also thrown my support to great progressive candidates like Barry Welsh, Gilda Reed, Ed Fallon, Larry Kissell, Jerry Northington aka Possum and many others. Now that Edwards is no longer running for office, there has been one progressive candidate who has me energized and excited for November. He's another son of a mill worker and his name is Jeff Merkley.