Every State. Every race. Right here.

This is number 20 in a planned series of 50 entries between now and November, looking at each of the 50 states in terms of every race on that state's ticket--Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, House, State legislatures--the whole Independence Hall.  Special attention paid to identifying and promoting the most important contests per state.

This time, we look at PENNSYLVANIA.

DISCLOSURE: Before I begin, a little disclosure. First off, I'm a former Clinton supporter; now I'm an Obama supporter, as of June 4th. Second, I'm a Jew and I support our government's support of the State of Israel. Third, like millions of Jews in the U.S. and Israel, I'm strongly against the Israeli government's hardline approach as far as its dealings with the Arab community--and the Palestinian issues in general--are concerned. Fourth, my father-in-law, who passed away in 2005, ran the Mideast desk of the U.S. Army's Defense Logistics Command during the Yom Kippur War. As a result of that--as you'll read in more detail below--he was very much on the front line of Operation Nickel Grass in 1973. So, please be clear here when I say I am in favor of our country's ongoing support of Israel as far as military materiel assistance is concerned.

It's been a while since my last House diary, and I just know you've been sitting there wondering "when will Nathaniel publish his next House roundup diary? I can't live without my fix, and he's just so...incisive...and brilliant...and downright Lincolnesque." (h/t to Stephen Colbert for that.)

Well, pine no more! As always, seats are ranked by flippability, but since House races are so numerous (at 435), I eventually switch to alphabetical order after the first 18 races. I figured 18 was a convenient number...and I also got lazy after writing about Alaska At Large.

Read below the fold, if you dare...

I live in the 10th congressional district of Pennsylvania, which encompasses the larger portion of Northeast Pennslyvania. The district voted 60 percent for Bush in 2004, yet in the "historic" election of 2006, the incumbent Republican Don Sherwood got into some personal trouble, and Democrat Chris Carney came out on top with a resounding victory.

In the fabled April 22 primaries that supposedly decided the Democratic presidential nominee, Carney and 10th district Democrats learned who their opponent would be--Chris Hackett--in a contest that almost went to a recount it was so close. Hackett's opponent, Dan Meuser, was supported by the Republican Party a little more than Hackett was, so it was nice to see a real wingnut take the nomination, further solidifying the chances of Carney being reelected as Representative to the district.

Let me preface the following with a few notes. First, it really has been a long time time since I last posted a diary, so please pardon any oversights or minor faux pas I might make (and my admittedly unpolished presentation). Second, I am (or, better, have become) an Obama supporter, but this is neither a candidate diary nor a conversion story; I am every bit as sick of the primary wars as anyone else and this diary aims to gain no converts but rather to report what I have witnessed on the ground. Finally, this is no more than anecdotal evidence and observations from my CD, PA-02, and from recent travel that has taken me throughout the eastern portion of Pennsylvania, including the majority of the Philadelphia region, the Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton area, Wilkes-Barre and Scranton.

These observations and conversations, all from the past week, have lead me to give some credence to the recent polls that show the race tightening or show Obama ahead. Given what I've seen I can realistically see an Obama win in PA, although I remain skeptical. Follow me for the details...

Just when the GOP is starting to catch some small breaks in the Senate, the situation in the House is rapidly deteriorating. As many had predicted, a growing number of Republican representatives do not find the prospect of life in the minority appealing and are calling it quits. Unfortunately for Republicans, a large majority of them represent competitive districts. The latest retirement were particularly shocking because they were completely unexpected -- especially Rep. Ferguson's in NJ-07. Democrats have golden opportunities to pick-up all of these seats, especially if the environment continues to favor them. But this also means Republicans will be forced to play defense and will not be able to contest that many Democratic-held seats, no matter how vulnerable they might be.

The full ratings are available here, at Campaign Diaries.

This is to be the fourth of 20 diaries looking at the House districts which look most likely to be in play in 2008.  This is supposed to be a weekly feature but I’ve been AWOL for about two months due to various work and home issues (and the fact that I’ve been drawn into discussions on threads when I have had dKos time rather than working on these).  I include my vulnerability score in each profile.  A higher number means more vulnerable.  Generally, if a district is on the list, the score is above 90, and above 100 means likely top tier.  The next two paragraphs are the intro which will appear at the top of each, so feel free to skip.

The full rankings are available on Campaign Diaries.

Plenty of action in House races since our first ratings came out in mid-September. This is recruitment and retirement season in the House, and Ohio has been the center of it all, with three Republicans retiring, two of them in very competitive districts (OH-15 and OH-16). Democrats have had better news on the recruitment front as well (look at AK-AL, FL-24, IL-11 and MN-06), but Republicans reply that they are very satisfied with their newest candidates in NM-01 and OH-07...

Yesterday was the deadline for U.S. House candidate committees to file quarterly reports with the Federal Election Commission.  Below is a quick compilation of fundraising totals for candidates in Pennsylvania's nineteen U.S. House districts. Democratic candidates are listed in bold; Republican candidates are listed in italics.  

Some brief observations:

Eye-popping numbers for Patrick Murphy.  Has more cash on hand than Mike Fitzpatrick did at similar point in the last election cycle.  Fitzpatrick may be the only Republican who can make this a real race.

Good quarter for Jason Altmire, but not enough to chase away Melissa Hart.  Chris Carney also did fine, but he'll be sweating no matter whom he faces.

Jim Gerlach, although his cash on hand is still shaky, bounced back in a big way from a weak first quarter.  He'll be tough again, and time's a wastin' for a bunch of intriguing but flawed potential candidates on the Democratic side.

I raised my eyebrows over Jack Murtha's relatively low quarterly receipts.  Bob Brady and Chaka Fattah were focused on their unsuccessful campaigns for Philadelphia mayor.

Numbers below the fold.

(Cross-posted at my blog, An Enduring Democratic Majority.)

It's no secret that the state of Pennsylvania was one of the hotbeds of the Democratic Party's revival in 2006. Sending four new Democratic Congressmen and a US Senator, only the state of Indiana came closer in providing the Democratic Party with more new lawmakers (the Hoosier state provided three new congressmen).

This weekend Salena Zito of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (Through Townhall.com) put together a terrific piece on the high probablility that PA will once again be a big part of any expansion, or contraction, of the Democratic majority in 2008.

As with my challenger rundown, I am listing the races alphabetically and not by turnover chance. The reason is that some races are shaping up, with announced candidates, and others are still big question marks.

Any races without at least one announced challenger are ignored for now.

Let us begin. Turn to page Below the Fold in your hymnals...

We don't expect the men and women we support to necessarily support the same position we do on every single vote. But even in the short time Chris Carney has been in Congress, he has moved further and further away from all the other Blue America endorsees who won seats.

In terms of supporting progressive issues in general, he has established himself at the bottom of the barrel among the freshmen, along with candidates we chose not to endorse, like Jason Altmire (PA), Rahm Emanuel's Heath Shuler (NC), Nick Lampson (TX) and Brad Ellsworth (IN). Some of us were disappointed but none of the writers at DownWithTyranny, Firedoglake or Crooks & Liars chose to castigate Carney. And then something happened that has made us decide to speak up. We realized Chris Carney lied to us.

Yes, it's very early, but hey, we live in the age of perpetual campaigning, so let's jump on it.

I am ranking my list of House 2008 Defense (the top 25 at least): vulnerable freshmen, or vulnerable long-time incumbents. Since we only know for sure so far of one open seat (CO-02), I am not including open seats.

Read below the fold!

The Republicans are already regrouping to try to take back the House of Representatives from the Democrats (as Kos's recent Front Page entry indicates) and there are 18 Seats that are likely to be heavily targeted by the Republicans (enough to take back the House) in 2008.

If there was ever a poster child for how redistricting should not be done, it is the Congressional district map for Pennsylvania. It was designed to elect 14 Republicans and 5 Democrats (everything except for PA-1/2/11/12/14 was drawn to favor a GOPer) in a state that voted for Bill Clinton twice and Al Gore in 2000. It was designed by Republicans for Republicans.

The map was so complex, that in order to draw it, the GOP used a mainframe at Carnegie Mellon University to input all of the demographic information. The result is a district that only redistricting junkies and GOPers love. But the map has backfired on GOPers. It never lived up to its potential in the first place.

In 2006, Pennsylvania was ground zero for the wave. Democrats picked up 4 seats (the 4th, 7th, 8th, and 10th) and threw out Rick Santorum. Not bad.  

This diary:
1)Looks at what the map was drawn to do.
2)How it turned out to function in reality.
3)Looks forward to see who's vulnerable.

More following the jump.

They aren’t even sworn in yet, and the handicappers are ready to write their political obituaries.  So goes life in Washington, I suppose.  And, truth be told, here on Daily Kos, too. Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post  on his The Fix blog:

Yes, we know it's way early to be talking about House races -- heck the winners in last month's midterms haven't even been sworn into the 110th Congress yet. But politics never stops. Like it or not, incumbents are already preparing campaigns for 2008 and challengers are getting geared up.

This diary details the likely top battlegrounds in the Northeast for control of the House of Representatives in 2008.

As professional athletes are considered role models, they are expected to set an example for children.  This expectation of good behavior was effectively manifested in the Congressional hearings on professional athletes who took steroids. As these athletes used steroids, they were blamed for the deaths of children who died from taking steroids. Congress never reasoned that the youngsters who used steroids did so to achieve better performance that will improve their chances of success for wealth as a professional athlete.

But this Diary is not about the ineptness of Congress nor Congress's attempt to find someone other then the parents of the dead children to blame for these unfortunate tragedies.  It is the example set by the members of Congress in their private and political lives that I am questioning.

Politicians and elected officials are themselves role models that must be held to the same morale standards as expected of professional athletes. The ethics of both politicians and elected officials are as important as their moral values. Their behavior determines the ethical and morale standards for America.