Here's some promising news from a new Oregon SUSA Poll Obama still leads overall by double digits, but he has gained 7 points with Women since the last SUSA poll taken on 5/1/08.

Key points:

Though the results are only slightly more in favor of Obama than SurveyUSA's most recent track point, released 11 days ago, before results of North Carolina and Indiana were known, there is movement in Oregon among women. 5 weeks ago, Clinton led by 7 among Oregon women. Today, Obama leads by 7.

I'm unable to locate a link now but before the Indiana primary, I recall InsiderAdvantage posting an article on their site complaining about how Indiana prohibited automated telephone calls even for informational surveys. IA said they used live operators for their Indiana polls instead of their usual robopolling methods, but they considered in-person interviews to be a less reliable method, and they griped that the Indiana law was unreasonable.

The article also mentioned that the Indiana state AG was initiating proceedings against companies that had conducted robopolling in the state. Since both Rasmussen and SurveyUSA routinely conduct their polls in this manner and, and don't have the means to conduct in-person interviews, and since both released primary polls of the state, I concluded that it was those two companies that were being targeted.

Does anyone have any further information on this?

Once again, all of the polling data was wildly wrong.  Why would anyone pay any attention to any polls, when The Great Orange Satan can just pull numbers out of his "you know what" and be so much more spot on.  (I can just imagine that Bill in Portland Maine gets all tingly when he sees Markos pull things out of his you know what - luv ya Bill)

Some examples:  Indiana.  SUSA C+10, Suffolk C+6, ARG C=8
               MARKOS C+2.2 actual C+1.1

               North Carolina.  SUSA O+5, IA O+3, Composite O+7
               MARKOS O+12.2 actual O+14

I would like to propose, that since we will all vote whatever way Markos tells us to anyway as the mindless cut and run robots that we are, and in light of the fact that so many state budgets are in the toilet these days, that we just save the money and skip the general election and move straight on to the Supreme Court decision.

It has been a rocky road in Kentucky's Democratic Senate Primary. First, we kept losing candidates as the establishment lined it up for Bruce Lunsford.  I actually lost interest in the race knowing I would vote my straight ticket in the fall. Now it seems we will be able to mount a successful Progressive challenge after all. That is because Greg Fischer has stepped to the plate and is charging to the finish. This race is heating up and has begun to tighten.

http://www.surveyusa.com/...

On the eve of the North Carolina Democratic Primary, with 25% of votes already cast, Barack Obama has no breathing room in his hope to defeat Hillary Clinton in popular votes, according to SurveyUSA’s 8th and final tracking poll, conducted exclusively for WTVD-TV, the ABC-owned TV station in Raleigh. On the final day of the fiercely fought campaign, it’s Obama 50%, Clinton 45%. There is no foreseeable outcome in North Carolina, regardless of which candidate wins the popular vote, where one candidate collects significantly more Convention delegates than the other.

SUSA not that good :)

They understated Obama's margin over Clinton in Alabama by 14 points, and in South Carolina by 13 points. If you want to stretch and call Missouri a southern state, they were off there by 12 points.

Compare the poll results on the SurveyUSA webpagewith the actual votes in those states on CNN's site. Whatever success SUSA has enjoyed this election season, it ain't been in Dixie. Even with SUSA giving Obama a 5-pt. margin I would be confident of a double-digit victroy in NC.

Survey USA shows Hillary up 9 points 52-43 in a new Survey USA poll. As one can only assume that she is being outspent at least 2 to 1, this must represent a bit of a stunner to the Obama folks. Let's face it he has not been getting his votes at bargain basement prices. Should Hillary carry the state by double digits it will give SDs significant pause for thought. Of course we will have to wait to see if this is born out in other polls.

Perhaps more interesting will be the next spate of North Carolina polls. Of course no one seriously believes Hillary can beat Obama there due to the large black vote. If she can trim his lead to single digits it may further lend credence to growing sentiment that Obama's support is soft and slowly ebbing. Frankly neither state looks promising for Democrats in the fall.

Just released. Last week SUSA showed Clinton up by 16%, which was a outlier.  The usual reliability of SUSA had us all worried a lot. The internals are contained in this press release, the usual sites will have it up soon.

After previously showing Clinton ahead by 16 pts, SUSA, much revered on this site and cited as the reason many expect Clinton to score a big win in PA, now shows Obama ahead by 5%. MOE is 4.2%.

Details here.

This kind of reversal may also be coming in Pennsylvania--those who cite SUSA polls in Ohio showing Clinton's lead just before the election as being precise should remember that at that time, Obama was on a nationa downward trend vs. Clinton. He underperformed polls in all the states that voted that day. Now, with the national trend holding or moving his way, state-by-state trends would be following proportionally.

In other words: What's happening in IN could also be going down in PA!

SurveyUSA has just releated a poll on Obama's "bitter" remarks.

http://surveyusa.com/

SurveyUSA interviewed 700 adults from the Harrisburg area; 534 identified themselves as being familiar with Obama's comments and were asked the questions which follow. Research conducted exclusively for WHP-TV in Harrisburg.

As various pollsters have released their most recent polls for Pennsylvania, there has been a tendency around here to discount (Zogby) or exaggerate (SUSA) the importance of particular polls based on the view that particular pollsters are betters than others, and have demonstrated their superiority during the course of this campaign cycle. The empirical data does not bear that out. Rather, a review of the polling data for a sampling of states suggests instead that polls, all polls, and regardless of pollster, simply have not been good predictors of election results. It's naturally tempting to single out a particular poll (e.g., SUSA polling Ohio at +10 for Clinton) as indicating the pollster's merits for future polling, or another (e.g., Zogby polling California at +13 for Obama, or New Hampshire as +13 for Obama) as indicating the lack thereof. But we should resist the temptation.

That's their latest.  I'd say they were crazy if they hadn't been right before when the other pollsters were reporting a very different picture.

Barack Obama lost ground among certain groups of voters in the battleground state of Pennsylvania during the last week, according to a new poll.

If the Democratic Primary were held in Pennsylvania Tuesday, Hillary Clinton would beat Obama by 18 percentage points, according to the results of a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for NBC 10 and three other TV stations across the Keystone State.

A new SurveyUSA poll of Indiana, the first public poll of the state since mid-February, gives Hillary Clinton the lead: Clinton 52%, Obama 43%. Margin of error for the poll is 4.3%. The poll was conducted for WHAS-TV Louisville and WCPO-TV Cincinnati.

Sample size: 530 likely voters.

Internals below the fold.

SurveyUSA has just released a new poll, taken on March 25th, with a national sample on the issue of favorability.  The quick take-away: Obama is the most popular major national political figure surveyed.

SurveyUSA Favorability Poll

Numbers, so many of them, tumbling around my head and around DK. And how to make sense of them? How to put them all together?

What follows is my best attempt to compile the important numbers of this campaign to date, numbers culled from many sources (CNN, SUSA, NYT, WaPo), not all of them in exact agreement. You may find a few minor numbers here with which to quibble - and my feelings won't be hurt if you do wish to quibble - but by and large these numbers are either exact, or so slightly off as to not matter much, if at all.

I am no statistician. I just like numbers. And, as an Obama supporter, I like what the numbers are saying. But election seasons are as ever-changing as the natural ones, and some of these numbers will undoubtedly change. But it is truly difficult to see how they might change so much as to add up to a victory for Senator Clinton.

(From the diaries -- kos)

Measuring Size of Obama’s (Relative) Coattails on Congressional Races

This is a long diary to read so I will tell you upfront what my conclusion is after examining the recent SurveyUSA 50-state polling:  Yes, Barack Obama may indeed have huge coattails for Senate and Congressional races in the fall.  Now, to the long explanation --

The recent SurveyUSA polling indicated a relatively even match between Obama and Clinton re. who would have the most electoral votes when facing McCain.  Obama’s total came to 280 EV, while Hillary’s was 276 EV – a seemingly even match:

http://www.surveyusa.com/...
http://www.surveyusa.com/...

This is my own little number crunching exercise based on the SUSA numbers released today released today, and based on Bowers's further breakdown into "solid", "lean", and "tossup" states.  A slightly different look at quantifying the "odds" of Clinton and Obama in a general election against John McCain.