Joe Lieberman is a not-so liberal Democrat from a strongly-Democratic state.

Lincoln Chafee is a not-so conservative Republican from a strongly-Democratic state.

That's the difference: Lieberman evoked so much opposition within his own state because the median Connecticut voter is a Democrat well  to the left of him.  Chafee would have lost his primary had only Republicans participated, but he drew many of the GOP votes he did based on the recognition that the median Rhode Island voter was a Democrat to the left, not the right, of Chafee.

Joe Lieberman isn't the Democratic equivalent of Lincoln Chafee.  Ben Nelson is more like it.  As for the Republican equivalent of Joe Lieberman, there just isn't one.  No state as red as Connecticut is blue has a Republican senator as close to the center as Joe Lieberman is.  John McCain isn't even close.

Comparatively unknown far-right conservative on the outs with the RNC = easy Senate pickup in November for Dems in a solid blue state. Got it. No problem.

But here's why I think last night's result was a good thing for our side, the above equation notwithstanding:

All that will be for naught, however, as all the NRSC did was delay the inevitable. Sheldon Whitehouse will finish Chafee off in November.

Bowers on turnout:

RI-Sen: I should mention that turnout in the Democratic Senate primary does appear to be about 28% higher than turnout in the Republican primary, even though there was basically nothing at stake. In other words, it is not as though we are doomed in this race because Chafee won. Whitehouse should beat Chafee and Laffey combined in total votes tonight. Whitehouse could still even walk to a huge victory if Laffey voters stay at home. We will have to see how things develop over the next couple of weeks.

MD-Sen: Mfume 40%, Cardin 39%, with 10% reporting. Expect wild swings like this all night since our still all-too segregated society will result in lots of landslide precincts for both candidates. Few precincts will be close. Also, turnout looks friggin' huge in Maryland. I have to think that this means Steele is finished.

Maryland Democratic Senate primary

MD-04 Dem primary

Update: Spitzer will win the gubernatorial nomination in NY 81-19 (ha!) and Clinton was at 83-17 over Tasini with about a third of the vote counted.

Race tracker wiki: RI-Sen

Steve Laffey's campaign aides will be stunned if they lose. Campaign sources say they hit all their target numbers in every targeted precinct etc, assuming a turnout of 50 to 55k voters.

These are just targeting predictors, not vote counts, so anything can happen, but everything has gone as planned for their turnout operation.

The Secretary of State reports that precincts across the state ran out of the more than 20K Unaffiliation forms they distributed. That suggests a least three possibilities:

1. Independents and Democrats voted for Chafee and then re-established their independent credentials

2. Voters who normally vote D in municipal elections switched to R for the purposes of choosing Laffey or and then switched back

3. GOP voters switched to the Democratic Party for the purposes of the election and had no interest in the GOP primary.

Or all of the above.

#3 is nonsensical. There was nothing worth voting for on the Democratic side. So it's got to be 1 and/or 2.

I've got a results page here. I'm sure we'll be looking for the best results page through the next few hours.

Race tracker wiki: RI-Sen

In an extraordinary pre-emptive announcement, the National Republican Senatorial Committee has said it will concede Rhode Island to the Democrats should Stephen Laffey, the mayor of Cranston, defeat Mr. Chafee in the primary. Citing poll data, Republican leaders said they saw no way someone as conservative as Mr. Laffey could win in a state as Democratic as this; as it is, they are increasingly worried about Mr. Chafee's hopes in a general election.

You can smell the fear.

Via the New York Times, The NRSC will conceed Rhode island should Lincoln Chaffe be defeated in the Primary. What this means for us, is that if you live in Rhode island you should vote in the republican primary for the Club for Growth's own, Mr. Laffey.

The NRSC is quoted as saying....

This is one single battle over many that the Republicans will be fighting. As Bush continues to implode, and we see the frantic desperation by the Republicans to get their propaganda onto ABC, this is a sure sign that the Republicans are pointing fingers at each other. The moderates are pointing fingers at the right-wingers and vice-versa. This will only grow, as we know for a fact that Jim Gilchrist is running for President and plans to peel away votes from John McCain or Rudy Guliani. The purists of the party are likely to bolt the party as their attempts to make immigration an issue could backfire on them and turn this into a Nader in reverse.

Who hasn't witnessed the myriad of reasons for fuel prices recent decline and previous increases?  How many anticipated these events?  Likely it's the same number offering investment advice who possess Warren Buffet's wealth.  If their knowledge was that uncannily good, they'd all be wealthy and not working for those who are.

In a tongue in cheek 60 second commercial spoof on how this sense of entitlement reveals itself, Sheldon is shown as a Ken Doll wearing a tuxedo and royalty garb sitting atop monopoly money.

These issues and Sheldon's vascilating on his Iraq war stand have called into question his commitment to be a legacy for Rhode Islanders or simply his patrician self.

It's got to be a nightmare polling this race, so I don't know how much to trust the specific numbers. Like that Q-poll in Connecticut that overstated Lamont's support beyond what both campaigns' internal polls showed, this one may be overstating Laffey support.

But it's clear the trends are with Laffey, and dramatically so.

Not to mention that there's a reason the NRSC is spending millions in anti-Laffey ads and sending every operative east of the Mississippi to Rhode Island to try and save Chafee's but.

The NRSC is taking out people from such key states as Ohio, Missouri, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland and Virginia in order to prevent Laffey from handing the seat to the Democrats. They wouldn't be doing that if their own internal numbers didn't look abysmal.

Race tracker wiki: RI-Sen

Democrats were right in 2004: the Republicans have adopted a draft. It only applies, however, to party workers employed by state victory committees in the east of the Mississippi. For many it will be worse than boot camp. They are to be sent to Rhode Island to try to rescue Republican Sen. Lincoln Chafee's re-election campaign in the September 12th primary.

Workers start arriving Friday and will be charged with sorting out the mess that Washington operatives believe is the Chafee campaign. First task may be to get Republican voters to forget Chafee's erratic performance in the last two of the four broadcast debates between the incumbent and his lively challenger, Cranston mayor Stephen Laffey.

Scores of GOP workers will begin arriving this week and stay through the open primary as they search for and then try to persuade some of the 70,000 registered Republicans and several hundred thousand independent voters eligible to participate in the open primary to support Chaffee. Draftees, many of whom may be more compatible with Laffey, will be paid by their home-state committees. Food and lodging expenses will be picked up by Republican National Committee.

Keep in mind what this means: assuming this report by the Hotline is accurate, the NRSC is pulling valuable workers in important battleground states like Missouri, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania for a full two weeks.

They are weakening their effort on behalf of weak candidates to rescue one of their incumbents from a primary battle. As the Hotline blog notes, some of those NRSC's staffers won't be happy to go and work for Chafee and against Laffey. It would've been like the DSCC forcing staffers to abandon their posts in hot contested races to go work for Lieberman and against Lamont.

Redstate's Mike Krempasky is already seeing red (pardon the pun) over the NRSC's anti-Laffey spending.

This is what your money is being spent on - attack ads on behalf of Lincoln Chafee. Give me a break. We're fighting on enough fronts to keep the Senate - and this is what Liddy Dole sees as a priority. No wonder their fundraising is in the tank. If Republicans want to make a real statement about their committment to winning elections, they ought to yank her BEFORE election day. Period.

Krempasky wrote that before the NRSC redirected half of their national staff to Rhode Island. I'm sure he'll be particularly pleased at that bit of news.

Race tracker wiki: RI-Sen

To Sheldon, or the DSCC: go on TV now--before the September 12 primary--and denounce that Chafee ad as racist.  "I'm Sheldon Whitehouse, and I approved this message because singling people out based on their skin color is wrong."

Why?  Details below the fold.

The other recent poll in this race:

Rasmussen. 8/3. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (7/11 results)

Meanwhile, Chafee and Laffey debated Wednesday night. And they used the opportunity to run away from the, er, Republican Party.

Both candidates distanced themselves from the national Republican Party and Bush, who has a low approval rating in Rhode Island.

"Certainly my record of voting with the administration is spotty at best," Chafee said.

Laffey said national Republicans have given him no support in his bid for the Senate and, if elected, he would take on leaders in both parties to change the nation's defense and energy policies.

"We need a national energy policy the likes of putting a man on the moon," Laffey said.

Race tracker wiki: RI-Sen

Last night was the RI GOP primary debate between Steve Laffey (R-RI), a populist Mayor and Club for Growth candidate challenging Lincoln Chafee (R-RI) a liberal GOP incumbent Senator.  It wasn't Kennedy-Nixon, but Laffey clearly looked and sounded better than Chafee.  Democrats are cheering, but bloggers (exception) have ignored this race.  I think we need to focus more on what these guys are saying now and how we can replay it for general election voters to take over this seat for Team Blue.  This is central to our strategy of retaking the Senate.

I write this diary because I stand with ALL the noble defenders of democracy and justice against those who utilize injustice in defense of tyranny.

I write this diary because too many of my brothers and sisters do not yet have a voice, and in doing so I hope they might find the courage to claim that voice.

I write this diary because I wanted to let Karl Rove know that he picked the wrong people to malign, to use as a cheap political football, and that his party will regret doing so for decades to come.

I write this diary to let the opponents of civility, humanity, collective consciousness, and democracy know, WE REFUSE TO BE WILLIE HORTONED!!!