There is a new moveon.org ad that hits McCain for not voting to decide if $13.5 billion tax breaks for big oil should go towards alternatives for oil, money that could have gone towards wind and solar. There needed to be 60 votes and they only got 59. John McCain chose not to vote.

As a result, instead of powering millions of homes with clean energy and building next-generation solar technology, ExxonMobil and other companies are getting billions in tax breaks at a time when they're already making record profits.

Yesterday Kagro X posted a great diary about this Vote Vets ad asking why we are not running it this cycle. There are 17 Republican Senators running for re-election that voted against this body armor that the troops needed.

Regardless if Vote Vets or anyone else renews this ad, we must use it to our advantage right now. The redder the state the better the reception is my opinion.

Remember this 2006 ad from VoteVets?

This ad ran against George Allen, Rick Santorum and Conrad Burns. All were defeated for reelection.

The same vote against giving our troops the body armor they needed that the ad criticizes was also cast by 17 Republican Senators seeking reelection this year:

Lamar Alexander (TN)
Saxby Chambliss (GA)
Thad Cochran (MS)
Norm Coleman (MN)
Susan Collins (ME)
John Cornyn (TX)
Elizabeth Dole (NC)
Mike Enzi (WY)
Lindsey Graham (SC)
Jim Inhofe (OK)
Mitch McConnell (KY)
Pat Roberts (KS)
Jeff Sessions (AL)
Gordon Smith (OR)
Ted Stevens (AK)
John Sununu (NH)

And not only that, but these Senators had all been elected or reelected just months before. That is, the Senate class of 2002, elected in November of that year, cast these votes in April of 2003, at the very beginning of their terms, and nearly six years away from having to face the voters for it.

They thought you'd forget. They needed you to forget.

But one thing they weren't counting on was the troops still being deployed and still fighting six years later.

But they are. And though some of these clowns have since tried to make amends, the fact remains that at the critical time, they put party politics over the lives of our troops, and voted against giving them the armor they needed.

They should all go down for it, and American voters should make a special point of sinking them for their cowardly votes that they hoped we'd forget.

These ads are just the way to do it, too. But they're not on the air.

They've been produced, as you can see. All they need are new tags to identify the 17 Republican Senators up for reelection this year who voted against giving our troops adequate body armor, and they're ready to go. They've been proven in the field, and you can see the impact they'd have right here before your very eyes.

But they're not on the air. And as far as I can tell, there are no plans to put them there.

Seventeen Republican Senators, some of them very, very vulnerable this year. What could we do with those seats in our hands?

Why aren't these ads on the air?

Big time Democrats, donors, and other convention goers: think on this, please. Use the time we spend together in Denver to remedy this.

Why aren't these ads on the air, and what can we do to change that?

We've decided to add Kay Hagan to Two for Tuesdays

SurvyeUSA. 8/9-11. Likely voters. MoE 3.9% (X/XX results)

This has almost tightened to where the race was right after the primary election, when Hagan got within 50-46 of Dole. Dole responded with a massive negative ad barrage, which knocked Hagan down a few points. Now, Hagan is up with her own barrage of ads, and she has taken a huge bite out of Dole's numbers.

The voter breakdown has 19 percent African American turnout. I've previously criticized polls (inluding our own) for using a voter screen far lower than the 26% African Americans notched per exit polls in 2004.

However, it turns out that those exit poll numbers were widely off. The pollsters at PPP, who are based in NC, explain the problem:

I've been using the 26% figure for our NC general election polling but the more I thought about it last night the more the 26% figure just didn't make sense. North Carolina's population is only about 19% black, and it would be pretty unusual for them to be represented at 26% in a general election.

So I e-mailed Gary Bartlett, the director of the extremely well run North Carolina Board of Elections, this morning and asked him for the demographic data on the 2004 electorate in North Carolina. It turns out the actual black electorate in the state that year was a little under 19%.

So the 19 percent SUSA is using is legit.

That said, I don't think there's any doubt that African American turnout this year will far exceed what we saw in 2004. I don't mind that pollsters use conservative voter screens based on historical results, but we're going to see some dramatic shifts in demographics, and North Carolina will dramatically change -- perhaps more so than any other state -- given its sizeable African American, student, and creative class populations.

On the web: Kay Hagan for Senate

As of right now, Republican Gordon Smith, Elizabeth Dole, Ted Stevens, Bob Schaffer and Susan Collins are all skipping the GOP convention. Has this ever happened? We've had recent defectors like Zell "duel challenger" Miller, but have we ever had numerous incumbents skip out on honoring their party in such a public fashion?

Full disclosure, I am the netroots director for OR-Sen candidate Jeff Merkley

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. July 28-30. Likely voters. MoE 4% (4/28-30 results)

Not much change, with Dole right at that 50 percent mark considered "safe", though I doubt anyone really thinks Dole can just slack off.

There are several races in which Obama's strength will have a say in the outcome of the Senate race, and this is certainly one of them, so let's see how he does:

Yeah, this one is a tossup. And it's likely even better than this. According to the 2004 exit polls African Americans made up 26 percent of the North Carolina electorate. The sample size of this poll is 22 percent black, and does anyone think black turnout will be down this year? Didn't think so...

So all things considered, these are pretty darn good numbers. You Tarheelers are going to be really busy this year.

On the web:
Kay Hagan for Senate

Is Elizabeth Hanford Dole a qualified registered voter with a permanent residence in North Carolina or is Elizabeth Dole's permanent primary residence at the Watergate in our nation's capital?

The Watergate is much more than the name of a famous hotel where an even more famous burglary took place in the early 70's.

"Watergate is a cooperative apartment complex located in North West Washington, D.C.. The complex includes three apartment buildings (East, West & South), two office buildings, a hotel, and a shopping mall.
"

The Watergate has been described as a "city within a city."   Most apartments are extravagant and have a price tag to match with many two-bedroom units going for well over $2 million.  Winston and Winston Real Estate have several listings at 700 New Hampshire Avenue NW offering virtual tours.   There are even a few listed that are down the hall from some of the Watergate's most famous residents, Bob and Elizabeth Hanford Dole.

Get a load of this:

Statement from Senator John Ensign

WASHINGTON, DC --  Senator John Ensign, Chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, today made the following statement regarding the Committee’s Independent Expenditure (IE) budget:

"While I am proud of the fact that the NRSC is in a better position than the past cycle - $5 million better – it is just not enough.

Chuck Schumer and the Democrat Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) have recently placed television buys totaling approximately $44.8 million in targeted Senate races across the country.  I will not allow our Republican candidates to be outspent by the DSCC this cycle. Therefore, it is my intention to give the NRSC’s IE Unit the total budget to match the DSCC dollar for dollar in every state they run ads.

While I am aware we do not currently have the funds to match the DSCC, I am giving our IE Unit this budget on faith - faith that my Republican colleagues will step up to the challenge and transfer the funds necessary to remain competitive with the Democrats.  I have informed my colleagues that it is now up to them.

I believe our Republican Senate candidates will ultimately be successful in November and my colleagues and I will do everything we can to give them that chance."

Did you catch this? The DSCC has reserved nearly $45 million in television ads for Senate races across the country. Ensign has just pledged to match that spending. "I will not allow our Republican candidates to be outspent by the DSCC this cycle". Big words!

Only problem, the NRSC has just $24.6 million in the bank, which is just over half what the DSCC has reserved in air time. So Ensign's tough words aside, he simply can't back them up. That's why he has to admit that, oh, well, maybe the NRSC doesn't have the cash to match, but it's up to his colleagues to make up the shortfall.

When you're in charge of a party committee, it is your job to raise the money and recruit the candidates. As much as we mocked Liddy Dole last cycle, at least she recruited some half-decent candidates in places like New Jersey, Maryland, and Tennessee. Ensign? He had to get Karl Rove's help in pulling in John Kennedy in Louisiana (complete with a party switch). Beyond that, nothing. And now, rather than buck up and take responsibility for his committee's anemic fundraising, he declares that it's no longer his job to get things done -- rather, it's his colleagues'.

Interesting. Of course, his colleagues have been loathe to send over cash since they understand the precarious position they're in politically. There are 49 Republican senators (plus Lieberman). Five are retiring. That leaves 44. Incumbents in Alaska, Oregon, Minnesota, Maine, New Hampshire, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Mississippi (B) face top-tier challengers. That brings things down to 36 incumbents who might be able to give. But incumbents in Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and Georgia face second-tier challengers who could potentially become more competitive. So they need to hold on to their cash just in case (though Cornyn in Texas recently transfered $250K to the NRSC). So other than Cornyn, that's three more incumbents who should hold on to their cash tightly. That's 33 incumbents left. McCain is running for president and has his own money problems. That's 32.

2010 won't be much easier for Republicans. Freshman Republicans will be running for reelection in Alaska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Florida, Louisiana, Georgia, and North Carolina. The first re-election battle is always the toughest, so they'll want to hoard cash to fortify their position and try and scare off top-tier challengers. That leaves 24. Bunning is likely retiring in Kentucky and isn't doing any fundraising. No fundraising either for Bob Bennet in Utah (is _he_ retiring?). Nor Jon Kyl. 21. Sam Brownback in Kansas has already announced his retirement. 20.

In addition to the freshman Republicans, Democrats are likely to also heavily target New Hampshire, Louisiana, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. That leaves just 16 Republicans safe enough to support the NRSC. But that's not all, though. Kay Bailey Hutchinson is already looking to resign so she can run for governor in 2010. She's got lots of cash in the bank, but big plans ahead. So 15.

And no matter what Ensign might think, 15 senators (or even 20) won't be enough to close the gap between the NRSC and Chuck Schumer's DSCC. He likely knows this, but he doesn't care. He's trying to pass the buck to his colleagues, ever so classy.

I never thought anyone could make Dole's tenure at the NRSC look good in comparison, but Ensign has managed to do so.

Whatever the polls may currently say about Elizabeth Dole's lead over Kay Hagan, it doesn't seem to matter to the DSCC. According to The Politico, they are about to bring the house down around Dole's head.

I need to warn you all, without tooting my own horn TOO much, that I was on a roll tonight if I do say so my own darn self - absolutely on a roll! Maybe, even a ciabatta or a baguette! Hee...Hee...! :)

Friends of Olbermann, not to get real preachy for real long, but I know we're all excited Keith's back, but let's keep the "excitement" to PG - 13 levels, OK? You know I love great discussion and great fun and the occasional "beefcake" comment - not that I'd EVER make one ;) - but there's other places to get all gushy - mushy about Keith. There's important issues to discuss, and I dare say the future of our country's at stake here. As I often say, I endeavor to entertain but also to educate. I won't claim "executive privilege" or nothin'!

So, on that note, let's Countdown for Wednesday, July 16, 2008!

Today Elizabeth introduced an ammendment to an AIDS relief bill that would rename it after Jesse Freaking Helms. This is my rant.

Via Atrios:

Out of all the people to try to honor in an Act dedicated to fighting AIDS, Elizabeth Dole spits in the face of LGBTs by proposing the now-dead Jesse Helms be added to the "Tom Lantos and Henry J. Hyde United States Global Leadership Against HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria Reauthorization Act of 2008."

Joe Jervis reminds us of some of Helms' greatest hits:

Jesse Helms, the man who in 1987 described AIDS prevention literature as "so obscene, so revolting, I may throw up."

Jesse Helms, the man who in 1988 vigorously opposed the Kennedy-Hatch AIDS research bill, saying, "There is not one single case of AIDS in this country that cannot be traced in origin to sodomy."

Jesse Helms, the man who in 1995 said (in opposition to refunding the Ryan White Act) that the government should spend less on people with AIDS because they got sick due to their "deliberate, disgusting, revolting conduct."

Jesse Helms, the man who in 2002 announced that he'd changed his mind about AIDS funding for Africa, but not for American gays, because homosexuality "is the primary cause of the doubling and redoubling of AIDS cases in the United States."

From Atomic Gay Wonk:

Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) yesterday introduced an amendment that would have added the name of Jesse Helms to the title of the HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria bill that is before the Senate. Helms, who died eleven days ago, was the nation's most vociferous foe of federal funding for HIV/AIDS programs from the epidemic's beginning until he left the Senate.

The name of the Act proposed in S. 2731 is "Tom Lantos and Henry J. Hyde United States Global Leadership Against HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria Reauthorization Act of 2008".

In the North Carolina and Oregon Democratic US Senate primaries this year, two great progressive candidates ran for the nomination: Jim Neal (NC) and Steve Novick (OR).  The DSCC, who is not supposed to pick sides in a primary, appears to have secretly funded their preferred candidates anyway (Kay Hagan (NC) and Jeff Merkley (OR)).

If the DSCC leaders personally had a preference, that’s fine.  BUT IT IS NOT OK TO FUNNEL MONEY TO ONE CANDIDATE OVER ANOTHER IN A DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY!!!!  That's unfairly taking sides and deliberately influencing an election, and that is not what the Democratic Party is about.

June Update
Senate gains looking solid. Dems have a lot of work to do to go from solid gains of 4-5 seats to huge gains of 7-9 seats.

Current Senate: 49 Dems, 1 Socialist, 1 Lieberman, 49 GOP.

I know, I know...it's not likely, but a brother can dream can't he?

Following up on my post from yesterday and incorporating some of the suggestions/corrections from the comments made there, let's take a look at our best case scenario in the November Senate elections.

Right now, we're at 49 Ds, 49 Rs and 2 I's.  When the smoke clears on election night in November we'll be at 62 Ds, 37 Rs and 1 I.
Here's how it's going to happen....

Several polls taken right over the weeks after the North Carolina primary show that the race for the senate has reached the top tier. now is as good a time as any to help me raise the maximum single donation for Kay Hagan on my Turn Carolina Blue page.