So today we had the big Iowa Caucus, the "kick off" of the election season.   Sometimes I wonder if politics is America's sport and not say baseball or football.  Anyways, I was curious about the Iowa Caucus and wanting to learn, looked it up.  Going through past results, something stuck out to me that made me start to wonder, that winning in Iowa may be more of a curse than a boon.

Good Guys:

Bad guys:

There's only 180 votes between McCain and Thompson. That battle for third will have huge repercussions to how this thing shakes out on the GOP side.

Regarding turnout, Republicans got 108,000, while Democrats are at 218,000 and still counting -- 6.5 percent of precincts haven't reported.

Today the dysfunctional Republican party's corrupt and criminal rule over this country is effectively finished...if.

Entrance poll:

Final results:

I'm pulling these numbers out of you know where, just like anyone else venturing predictions. This thing is so tight that anyone can win it. But bragging rights are important, so go for it -- not just the order the top-three candidates will end up in, but the percentages they will get.

Update: Not rooting for any of these candidates, election day isn't as exciting. Then again, I won't have to relive the pain of Dean's crushing defeat again. That's a definite "plus" for maintaining a cool detachment.

And before anyone misinterprets, since it's happened so much the past few days -- this doesn't mean I endorse or am rooting for Obama. I haven't and am not. I'm not rooting for anyone. I'm letting nature take its course.

Furthermore, the rumors are flying rampant. For example, I just heard from a rival campaign that Hillary's overnight internals are showing an Edwards, Hillary, and Obama 1-2-3 result. This is many people removed from the original source, so likely crap, but indicative of the frenzy for information in Iowa right now.

For what it's worth, the media consensus (per my media sources in Iowa) appears in line with my predictions -- Obama, Edwards, and Clinton.

Alright, guys, it's almost time, and I know tonight's your first big game of the season.  Season openers are always a lot of fun and excitement, but your mother and I want to make sure you remember what we taught you about sportsmanship (especially after the way you kids behaved during the preseason!).

This is gonna be a short diary.  But it's a point I feel I need to make.  Going into Iowa, some polls...the ones being aired on news programs...are showing Obama ahead in Iowa, with Clinton and Edwards in 2nd and 3rd respectively.  (Though practically tied, with 1% seperating the two)

If Edwards comes in first or second, he would thereby exceed expectations and be seen as gaining momentum in Iowa.  Even if he comes in 3rd, he would meet expectations. Meanwhile, Obama has much to lose, perceptionwise, if he comes in second to Clinton or Edwards.

We learned with Dean in 2004 that the key to winning in Iowa is picking up the non-viable candidates supporters.  While Kucinich is urging his supporters to caucus for Obama (this time around) if he is non-viable, there are 3 other candidates who have some support in Iowa whose supporters could impact which of the three top contenders comes out on top.

Tonight, The Young Turks and Brave New Films will be covering the Iowa caucuses live. Starting at 7PM ET, we will simulcast a webstream on both sites. There will be wall to wall coverage of the Republican and Democratic caucuses in Iowa.

Here is a list of our guests for the night who will help us analyze the election before and after the results come in:

The eyes of the world are upon us. Here in Iowa, the thaw has begun. After long, dark days harsh cold, it's supposed to warm up for the caucuses today. The ice is receding. The new winds are taking hold in preparation for the magic of a January night under the stars. Our party is united for change, for hope, to fight, to lead on (or before) day one. We're united for peace through strength, for an America that rises like a sun as the snow melts. We're fired up and ready for Bush to go. We have plans - for Iraq, for Pakistan, for restoring our Constitution. The Fire Fighters are for us, as are the service workers, the middle class, the single parents, the teachers, the farmers. The archetypal Americans are for us because we are for them. The children from the Norman Rockwell paintings are weathered and as old as 2007, but they will be standing for Biden and Dodd and Edwards and Obama.

The Des Moines Register’s Iowa Poll is considered the "Gold Standard" by pollsters and political junkies alike.  In 2004, the Iowa Poll was the only poll to get the top four Democratic candidates in the correct order – Kerry, Edwards, Dean, and Gephardt.  

Just before the ball dropped in Times Square, the Des Moines Register released its final Iowa Poll for the 2008 Iowa Democratic caucuses.   It showed Barack Obama with 32%, Hillary Clinton with 25%, and John Edwards with 24%.   But the Iowa Poll contains three huge assumptions.  First, that 40% of the participants in the Democratic caucuses will be Independents.  Second, that 60% of the participants will be first-time caucus goers.  And third, that 17% of the caucus goers will be under 35.

For Democrats, the Iowa caucuses have a "viability threshold" - a candidate not getting 15% of the vote gets nothing. I propose a similar viability threshold for the Iowa caucuses themselves - if 15% of the registered Democrats in the state don't show up to vote, then the vote doesn't count, and Iowans can return at the end of the primary season and have a real primary like everybody else.

Every five minutes, some new poll pops up showing a candidate three or four points ahead of or behind where we thought they were. OR how likeable or unlikeable they are. Or their popularity as a second choice. Or their chances of beating other world leaders in a poker match.

Seriously folks? They don't matter. People get so excited about every little percentage point. Campaigns aren't about numbers until the very end, and even that's occasionally uncertain (cough cough 2000).

I got this from a friend and DK supporter who has not gotten permission from the Kucinich campaign to post it with their name.  So they asked me to post it without.

Are you sick of the candidate diaries, and the ratings wars, the snide remarks, the "Your candidate isn't a real Democrat!" bickering?

After looking carefully at the polls, the last-minute maneuvering, and the sensitive and standard trend lines for all the Democratic and Republican front runners, my prediction for tomorrow's Iowa caucuses is this:

Who the f--k knows?

Gauged by the press coverage, the Iowa caucus vote is one of the biggest bowl games of the political football season.  Heating up with the summer fairs, the presidential hopefuls from both parties blitz Iowa, trailed by the packs of press covering every pancake tossed and pig roasted.  There is no question it is good political theatre.  Candidates that do well can claim publicity and momentum going into the heart of the primary season. Candidates that fare poorly, particularly if in the top-tier, are likely to be all but dead by March.  The argument for the Iowa caucus, along with the similar hoopla surrounding the New Hampshire primary, is that these two events force the candidates to engage the people and articulate their agenda for the next four years.  The voters in these early contests amount to the political equivalent of professional taste-testers, sipping, sniffing, slurping, and spitting before rendering an expert opinion about the fitness of each candidate to lead the nation.  

Perhaps it is burnout from the long hours on the road, the chill of early winter, and spending too much of the holiday season covering the events, but the press is taking serious shots at the Iowa caucuses.  

With polls showing an absolutely even division of voters among the top three Democratic candidates going into the Iowa caucuses this week you're beginning to hear a lot of talk that "Iowa might not decide anything" on the Democratic side of the primary ledger.  In addition to many comments here at dKos that are beginning to toe that line, the NY Times has an analysis piece discussing the issue tonight.  In the piece even a senior Obama staffer says:

"It would be like a six-month trial and a hung jury," said David Axelrod, a senior adviser to Mr. Obama. "I think it is really possible."

But the fact is, Iowa will have a clear winner. . .

(Cross-posted at The Field.)

With apologies to her fellow baby boomer McCartney:

“Hillary Clinton picks up the rice in a church where a wedding has been…”

After pointing out yesterday that holiday polling now is restricted to those lonely enough to answer the telephone for the 15th telemarketing call today, and how Obama supporters (young, college-educated, on-the-go) get underpolled, it’s a genuine surprise that the much-awaited Selzer/Des Moines Register poll has Obama on top, and beyond the 3.5 percent margin of error. If Barack is winning the lonely hearts club vote, he could be on the way to an historic victory to ring in 2008.

And after saying various times that Anne Selzer is the pollster I most trust (and that other pollsters most trust) to get it right in Iowa, I suppose I ought to take a closer look at these shocking results...

(Cross-posted at Berkeley Bubble.)
With less than 50 hours to go till the Iowa caucuses, John Edwards in starting to surge in the latest Iowa polls, and according to the latest Insider Advantage Poll, Edwards is predicted to win big in Iowa with 41 percent of the delegates.  This is the same poll that accurately predicted the outcome in Iowa in 2004. Read the details below the flip.