Also at The Albany Project

The New York Times published a fluffy story a week ago about notorious Bush-war-flack Dan Senor running against the excellent Senator Kirsten Gillibrand this year.

Today, Times About New York columnist Jim Dwyer took a closer look at Senor's 2003-04 stint as chief flack for the Bush/Cheney regency in Iraq

It wasn't pretty.

Details, below.  

Today, the Wrap wears green, because it is Hell to get pinched that many times....

THE U.S. SENATE

CA-Sen: Rasmussen Sees Tight Re-Election Race for Boxer
Is the Senate race in the Golden State tightening? The folks at Rasmussen seem to think so. They have Barbara Boxer leading former Congressman Tom Campbell by just a pair of points (43-41), while more conservative candidates Carly Fiorina and Chuck DeVore trail by just six points (46-40). When DK polled this race last week, Campbell came closest at four points (not terribly different from Ras), while Fiorina and DeVore were further behind.

CO-Sen: Caucus Wins for the Underdogs in Senate Battles
It plays only a tangential role in determining the nominees, but the perceived underdogs on both sides of the partisan coin in the competitive Senate race in Colorado can crow a little bit about strong performances in last night's caucuses in the state. On the Dem side, former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff scored a win in the high single digits (51-42) over appointed incumbent Senator Michael Bennet. On the GOP side, establishment choice Jane Norton finished in a dead heat with the lesser-known Ken Buck, who seems to be running at Norton from the right.

NC-Sen: Burr Still Looking Mediocre, According to Local Boys PPP
It would seem that it is now safe to say that Republican Senator Richard Burr is the most vulnerable GOPer running for re-election to the U.S. Senate. Burr's poll numbers have been mediocre (according to everyone except Rasmussen), and the new numbers from PPP (PDF file) confirm that. Burr leads Democratic Secretary of State Elaine Marshall by just five points (41-36). His leads over both Cal Cunningham and Ken Lewis are a touch wider, though he is still well under the 50% threshold (43-32 against both of them). PPP also polled the primaries, and they had it close to a toss-up between Marshall (20%) and Cunningham (16%) on the Democratic side, with Lewis not far behind (11%). Burr, meanwhile, easily leads the GOP side with 58% of the vote.

NY-Sen: Gillibrand Lands Another (Second-Tier) Challenger
When your biggest claim to fame is that your daughter has an affiliation with American Idol, that might not say much for your political career (ahem...Scott Brown excepted, of course). Idol judge Kara's father, Joseph DioGuardi, has announced he will challenge Gillibrand this year. DioGuardi was a Congressman in Westchester County, New York over two decades ago and was last seen running dead last in his efforts to get the GOP nomination against John Hall in the 19th district two years ago.

THE U.S. HOUSE

NY-13: Unions Put Serious Electoral Pressure on Wavering Dem
If you were wondering if the unions were serious about playing hardball with recalcitrant Democrats on the health care front, wonder no more. Check out this ad, which was set to run this morning in the Staten Island Advance, pressuring McMahon to vote "yes" on the reform package.

SD-AL: Is HCR Going To Lead To High-Profile Primary?
Here was a most intriguing headline yesterday from the folks at CNN: apparently former Obama campaign veteran Steve Hildebrand is none too pleased with the voting habits of the state's Democratic Congresswoman, Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin. How displeased is he? He is contemplating a primary challenge to the fourth-term incumbent.

THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES

CA-Gov: Pair of Polls Have Brown-Whitman As A Pure Toss-Up
As you well know, we here at DK polled the Golden State last week, and found a very close race between Democrat Jerry Brown and Republican Meg Whitman in the batttle for Governor of California. With the inclusion of the two polls released today by Rasmussen and the venerable Field Poll, it is safe to conclude that this race is a pure toss-up. The Field Poll says that Whitman's nearly incessant advertising has paid off (PDF file). Field gives Whitman a three-point edge over Brown (46-43). Brown, for what its worth, is drubbing the other GOPer in the field, Steve Poizner (49-32). Meanwhile, Rasmussen actually has Brown in better shape than the Field Poll, showing the two candidates deadlocked at 40.

NY-Gov: Is NY GOP Relying on a Dem To Be Their Standard Bearer?
Andrew Cuomo's status as the undisputed frontrunner to replace fellow Democrat David Paterson as the Empire State's Governor (he leads former GOP Congressman Rick Lazio by a better than 2-to-1 margin) has the GOP scrambling in a unique direction. They are apparently romancing Democratic Suffolk County Executive Steve Levy, and Levy is very actively embracing the overtures. According to the Albany Times-Union, Levy penned a letter to state GOP leaders asking for their endorsement. Here is a potential snag, however: Jessica Taylor of Politico is reporting that the RNC is threatening to withhold any outside assistance in the race if Levy is the party's standard bearer.

2010 Elections: Ballot Box Lays Down Some Early Analysis
Worth a read: Josh Goodman at Ballot Box, the elections blog for Governing Magazine, has been laying down some early predictive analysis of the gubernatorial elections in 2010.

As seems to be the norm lately, a very busy couple of days in the world of political campaigns and political polling. Let's get right to it....

THE U.S. SENATE

KS-Sen: Either Tiahrt or Moran Favored to Hold Seat for GOP
This will surprise absolutely no one, but Democrats are the longest of longshots to pick up the Senate seat coming open in the Sunflower State, according to new numbers from Rasmussen. Ras polls both Congressman Todd Tiahrt and Congressman Jerry Moran against "Generic Democrat", and ole G.D. gets beat by a roughly 2-to-1 against either of them. Moran does incrementally better (51-26) than does Tiahrt (50-29).

NY-Sen: Gillibrand Leads All Republicans, According to Ras
With each passing day, the reason for Harold Ford Jr's decision to exit the New York Senate race becomes more apparent. Not only were his own political fortunes circling the drain, but his likely Democratic rival, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, is enjoying a bit of a political surge of her own. According to the newest numbers from Rasmussen, Gillibrand leads all GOP comers, including the still-undecided George Pataki, who Gillibrand has trailed in a number of trial heats. She now edges the former Gov by a pair (44-42), and also easily led NY Daily News publisher Mort Zuckerman by double digits (47-36). Interestingly, Ras chose not to poll Bruce Blakeman, who differs from the two tested Republicans in one quirky way--he's actually running. Zuckerman, for his part, seemed to slam the door on a potential bid today.

These numbers by the way, track reasonably closely to a Marist Poll released yesterday, which had Gillibrand tight with Pataki (they gave Pataki a 48-45 lead) while blasting either Zuckerman or Blakeman (Marist had the Senator leading Blakeman 58-28). They also had the other NY Democratic Senator, Chuck Schumer, destroying CNBC analyst Lawrence Kudlow (69-24).

ND-Sen: Democrats Lose Top Recruit For Open Senate Seat
The odds were pretty darned long in any event, and in the final analysis, that might explain why former state Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp made the call not to run for the U.S. Senate this year. The seat, left open by the January retirement of longtime incumbent Byron Dorgan, encouraged GOP Governor John Hoeven to get into the race. Democrats are likely to rely either on state legislator Tracy Potter or young businesswoman Kristin Hedger (who has run statewide, and came close to a victory, despite being just 29 years of age).

THE U.S. HOUSE

OK-02: Boren Looks Safe In Uber-Red Oklahoma District
Dan Boren, the conservative Dem who has been representing the very red 2nd district in Oklahoma since 2004, looks safe for a fourth term, according to a new poll by the crew at PPP. Boren has leads ranging from 16-27 points over a quartet of little known Republican rivals, while an Independent candidate logs in the high single digits.

THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES

GA-Gov: Peach State A Possible Dem Pickup?
PPP takes an early look at the Georgia Governor's race, and finds something that has been thus far elusive in the 2010 campaign cycle, a better-than-expected result for a Democrat. The Democrat is a familiar face to Georgia voters: former Governor Roy Barnes, who served the state from 1999-2003. Barnes has small leads over a trio of GOP challengers in the race to replace term-limited GOP Gov. Sonny Perdue. Barnes leads John Oxendine by a single point (40-39), while Karen Handel and Nathan Deal trail the former Democratic Governor by five points each. Worth noting: Ras also polled this race recently, and has all three GOPers in the lead.

NY-Gov: Cuomo Looks To Make Empire State A Democratic Hold
Now unencumbered by a complicated primary with an embattled Democratic incumbent, Andrew Cuomo is apparently cruising in his bid to be New York's next governor. So says Rasmussen, which gives the Democrat a twenty-five point (55-30) edge over likely GOP nominee Rick Lazio. They also test Buffalo developer Carl Paladino, who might run as a GOPer or a Teabagger. As the GOP nominee, he gets squashed by Cuomo (56-27). If they tag-team Cuomo, Cuomo still wins easily, though his vote share slips to 50%, with Lazio down to 19% and Paladino (as an Independent) down to 15%.

OK-Gov: Oklahoma Looks Like A GOP Flip, According to Rasmussen
Not that this will be a surprise to...well...just about anyone, but after eight years with Democrat Brad Henry at the helm, it looks like ruby-red Oklahoma (among the medallists in the "worst state for Obama" category) will go Republican in 2010, according to new numbers from Rasmussen. Congresswoman Mary Fallin has double digit leads over either Democratic Lt. Governor Jari Askins (51-37) or state Attorney General Drew Edmondson (51-36). The only hope for Dems (and this is even a bit of a stretch) is if somehow state legislator Randy Brogdon wins the GOP nod--the Dems are a toss-up against him.

PA-Gov: Q Poll--Corbett Leads Dems, But Margin Thinning
Quinnipiac is back in the Keystone State, and they have some interesting numbers in the gubernatorial race. While GOP state Attorney General Tom Corbett continues to lead in both the primary and general elections, his numbers have softened noticeably. In the primary, he crushes state legislator Sam Rohrer, but still only gets 43% of Republicans to commit to him (43-5). Meanwhile, in the general election, his lead over Dan Onorato has been cut almost in half, with Corbett now up by just ten points (42-32). This comes on the heels of yesterday's release, which had Democratic Senator Arlen Specter leading Republican Pat Toomey, a reversal of most recent polling on the race.

RI-Gov: Rasmussen Confirms Chafee Lead in Indie Bid
Rasmussen, as always, is a little bearish on Democratic chances here, but their new poll out of the state of Rhode Island basically tracks with other polls. They have former GOP Senator Lincoln Chafee, now running as an Independent candidate, with leads over either major Democrat running for the office. Against treasurer Frank Caprio, Chafee leads 37-27, with Republican John Robataille at 19%. With state Attorney General Patrick Lynch in the mix, Chafee's lead stretches to 38-24, with Robataille at 22%.

Harold Ford, to his BFF Joe Scarborough this morning:

"I spent seven weeks traveling and listening and learning and I can assure you, voters don't know the junior senator," [Ford] said, referring to Gillibrand. "They can't name a single positive outcome from her, which means one simple thing: She will be labeled for the failures of Washington, the failures of Albany." [...]

He also said this morning that he would have won a primary. But he worried that a "brutal" contest would have weakened the winner against the Republican nominee.

Reality:

In a Marist Poll completed last night, Gillibrand put a little more distance between herself and the former Tennessee Congressman in a hypothetical contest for the nomination.  50% of New York Democratic voters would have backed Gillibrand.  19% reported, however, they would have supported Ford, and labor activist Jonathan Tasini would have taken just 3% of the vote.  28% of Democrats were unsure.

When The Marist Poll last asked this question in early February, 44% of Democrats reported they backed Gillibrand, 27% threw their support behind Ford, and 4% said they were going to cast their ballot for Tasini.  25%, at the time, were unsure.

Harold, traveling "upstate" doesn't count if you're just hanging out in the country homes of your banker buddies.

But here's a new conspiracy theory to ponder: Harold Ford was a creation of the Gillibrand campaign:

“Ford’s short-lived challenge to Gillibrand not only did her no harm, it may have even solidified her support among Democrats,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

Harold Ford's Op-Ed in the New York Times is a classic example of what happens when megalomania gets completely out of control. His cowardice and self-aggrandizing bullshit is exactly why he has no place in New York politics.

He blames the party bosses for not immediately getting behind him. He blames Kristen Gillibrand. He blames women and the LGBT community. He blames everyone but himself, naturally.

But here are the real reasons Ford, who likes to say he wont be intimidated, was indeed intimidated:

I was really looking forward to this primary. Unfortunately, it's not to be.

Under intense pressure from Democratic Party officials, Harold E. Ford Jr., the former Tennessee congressman, has decided not to challenge Sen. Kirsten E. Gillibrand in the primary this fall, according to two people told of his plans.

He has told friends that, while he is convinced he could prevail against Ms. Gillibrand, he feared the winner of the primary would have little money and remain highly vulnerable to a well-financed Republican challenger at a time when the Democratic party controls the Senate by a slim majority.

“I’ve examined this race in every possible way, and I keep returning to the same fundamental conclusion: If I run, the likely result would be a brutal and highly negative Democratic primary — a primary where the winner emerges weak-ened and the Republican strengthened,” Mr. Ford wrote in an opinion article to be published in Tuesday’s edition of The New York Times

I refuse to do anything that would help Republicans win a Senate seat in New York, and give the Senate majority to the Republicans.”

He never would've come close to victory. He was a joke from Day One, and his role over the coming months, had he run, would've been that of comic relief.

Alas, we'll have to get our laughs elsewhere.

Looks like Harold Ford has seen the handwriting on the wall and decided not to run for Senate.

Ford's statement will appear on Tuesday in the New York Times.  It includes the following:

"I’ve examined this race in every possible way, and I keep returning to the same fundamental conclusion: If I run, the likely result would be a brutal and highly negative Democratic primary — a primary where the winner emerges weak-ened and the Republican strengthened."  "I refuse to do anything that would help Republicans win a Senate seat in New
York, and give the Senate majority to the Republicans."

NY1 News is reporting that Harold Ford has bumped back his candiacy announcement deadline regarding his possible challenge to incumbent Democratic Senator Kirsten Gillibrand. Ford was expected to make an announcement Sunday, he now says it will come late next week.

A Ford spokesperson said,

"Ford doesn't want to discuss his political future amidst the distractions over Governor Paterson's troubles."

I don't know, considering the kind of headlines Ford's been getting, a nice juicy scandal about another pol is just the ticket.

Also breaking is a New York Times story offering insight into Ford's compensation at Merill Lynch. Citing two anonymous sources with direct knowledge, it claims his 2007 contract guaranteed him at least $2,000,000 and with bonuses could well have exceeded that.

Harold Ford had a rocky appearance at a meeting of the New York Stonewall Democrats. The umbrella national group was founded by Massachusetts Rep. Barney Frank, and is named after the Stonewall riots in 1969.

Given Harold Ford's poor record on gay rights, this was about what was expected. It wasn't a meeting of his BoA friends at the Meryll Lynch boardroom.

As surreal as that moment must've been, this particularly caught my eye:

Ford didn't do himself any favors by asking a questioner to clarify what "Lawrence v. Texas" was.

Wait, what? How could Ford not know what Lawrence v. Texas was? It was the landmark Supreme Court case striking down sodomy laws. And since "sodomy" was generally used to describe what was deemed as "crimes against nature" -- mainly anal and oral sex, these laws were frequently used to criminalize homosexual behavior. For example, in Connecticut, in 1970:

Connecticut’s Commissioner of Motor Vehicles John Tynan denies a driver’s license to a man with a sodomy conviction on his record, saying the man “is an admitted homosexual” and “his homosexuality makes him an improper person to hold an operator’s license.” Connecticut Attorney General Robert Killian upholds Tynan’s decision. The man denied his license later commits suicide.

The Lawrence case was sparked by such an outrageous intrusion into the private lives of consensual adults. From the decision itself (citations removed):

In Houston, Texas, officers of the Harris County Police Department were dispatched to a private residence in response to a reported weapons disturbance. They entered an apartment where one of the petitioners, John Geddes Lawrence, resided. The right of the police to enter does not seem to have been questioned. The officers observed Lawrence and another man, Tyron Garner, engaging in a sexual act. The two petitioners were arrested, held in custody over night, and charged and convicted before a Justice of the Peace.

The complaints described their crime as “deviate sexual intercourse, namely anal sex, with a member of the same sex (man).” The applicable state law [...] provides: “A person commits an offense if he engages in deviate sexual intercourse with another individual of the same sex.” The statute defines “[d]eviate sexual intercourse” as follows:

“(A) any contact between any part of the genitals of one person and the mouth or anus of another person; or

“(B) the penetration of the genitals or the anus of another person with an object.”

The officers were called in by a false report (by a jilted lover) of weapons in the apartment. Finding none, that should've been the end of it. But of course, it wasn't, and the two men were arrested for the crime of being gay.

In 1998.

You can imagine how useless the Texas judiciary was on the issue. Those guys are elected. They weren't about to incur the wrath of you-know-who. So it was up to the Supreme Court. In their stunning 6-3 decision (with Thomas, Scalia, and Rehnquist dissenting), the Supreme Court properly identified the fundamental issue at stake:

[Sodomy laws] are, to be sure, statutes that purport to do no more than prohibit a particular sexual act. Their penalties and purposes, though, have more far-reaching consequences, touching upon the most private human conduct, sexual behavior, and in the most private of places, the home. The statutes do seek to control a personal relationship that, whether or not entitled to formal recognition in the law, is within the liberty of persons to choose without being punished as criminals.

And their holding affirmed that liberty interest:

First, the fact that the governing majority in a State has traditionally viewed a particular practice as immoral is not a sufficient reason for upholding a law prohibiting the practice; neither history nor tradition could save a law prohibiting miscegenation from constitutional attack. Second, individual decisions by married persons, concerning the intimacies of their physical relationship, even when not intended to produce offspring, are a form of “liberty” protected by the Due Process Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment. Moreover, this protection extends to intimate choices by unmarried as well as married persons.”

This is THE decision that affirmed the legality of homosexuality. It is one of the most important decisions of the 2000s, and likely in the court's history. And it was a BIG DEAL when it came out. As Atrios reminisces:

I was in Spain when the Lawrence v. Texas decision was coming out "any day now" and I popped into internet cafes about every hour because it, you know, mattered.

Anyone paying attention to politics at the time would've known about the decision, and Ford was in Congress at the time. The Christian Right went nuts. Gay groups hailed it! There was a big commotion!

Then again, perhaps Harold has a good excuse. The decision WAS made back when he was hating on gays. I mean, this is the guy, who in 2006, went off the deep end when the New Jersey Supreme Court affirmed the importance of equal protection under the law (not gay marriage):

I do not support the decision today reached by the New Jersey Supreme Court regarding gay marriage. I oppose gay marriage, and have voted twice in Congress to amend the United States Constitution to prohibit same-sex marriage. This November there's a referendum on the Tennessee ballot to ban same-sex marriage - I am voting for it.

He was a lovely guy back then. And he's still as sleazy today, with a dash of "ignorant" thrown in for good measure.

If you missed stef's eyewitness account with video, go ahead and do that. The reviews are coming in from the New York media in the meantime.

But before you go below, you have got to see Harold Ford's face on the video running this morning on NY1.
Thanks to Scarce for the vid:

It is an all-out poll-u-copia today, and not just of the Rasmussen variety. In other words, hunker down for what is a pretty busy Wednesday night for your reading pleasure here at the Wrap...

THE U.S. SENATE

FL-Sen: Meek Way Behind GOP Candidates, According to Ras
The Rasmussen poll this week showing Charlie Crist badly trailing Marco Rubio in the GOP Senate primary in the Sunshine State has been widely publicized. Getting less ink has been the general election numbers, which were less than positive for Democratic frontrunner Kendrick Meek. Meek gets pounded in the general election no matter whether Crist (48-32) or Rubio (51-31) winds up as the Republican nominee.

GA-Sen: Is Johnny Isakson Potentially Imperiled? Ras Says Maybe
A couple of days after Rasmussen showed Democrat Roy Barnes within striking distance in red-leaning Georgia's high-profile Governor's race, they follow up with a bit of a shock in the low-profile Senate race. They have Johnny Isakson, seen by virtually everyone as safe as could be, only leading a "generic Democrat" by thirteen points (49-36). Of course, "generic Democrat" is not an actual candidate, and there haven't been many whispers of legit Dem candidates eyeing this race.

OH-Sen: New Q-Poll Gives Portman Slight Lead Over Dems
Quinnipiac returns to the Buckeye State, and finds that former GOP Congressman Rob Portman has a modest lead over either Democratic frontrunner. When paired with Lt. Governor Lee Fisher, Portman leads by three points (40-37). Against Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, the lead stretches out to five points (40-35). The Q poll also takes a look at the Democratic primary, but "undecided" would be the big winner there, as Fisher sits on a nine-point edge (29-20) over Jennifer Brunner.

NY-Sen: Is Former Bush Advisor Eyeing the Senate Race?
Here is a potentially curious twist to what has already been a campaign cycle full of them in New York: the latest GOP name to surface in regard to Kirsten Gillibrand's seat in the U.S. Senate (which she will be defending this Fall) is Dan Senor. If that name rings a slight bell, you might know it for two reasons. One, he was a fairly high-profile advisor to former President George W. Bush. Two, in media circles, he might be better known as the hubby of CNN anchor Campbell Brown. Remember that it was just last week that NY Daily News publisher Mort Zuckerman was also flirting with making this race. It seems that we can take this as a sign that the GOP is not in love with Bruce Blakeman as their standard-bearer.

PA-Sen: Specter Leads Primary, Trails General, In Strange F&M Poll
Franklin and Marshall releases some new nums in the state of Pennsylvania, and the very hot Senate race found in the Keystone State. In the Democratic Primary, the incumbent (Senator Arlen Specter) leads Congressman Joe Sestak, but remains well below 50% support (33-16). In the general election, the numbers get very curious. Among registered voters, the margins were very close, with Specter beating presumptive GOP nominee Pat Toomey by four points (33-29) while Sestak trailed by just three points (25-22). Among the people F&M considered likely voters, however, Toomey has a double-digit lead over both Specter (44-34) and Sestak (38-20). Now, there is usually some gap between registered voters and likely voters, but this strikes me as more than a little absurd.

THE U.S. HOUSE

KS-01: Potential Mod/Con Clash in Open Seat, According to SUSA Poll
SurveyUSA, which is normally an incredibly prolific pollster but has been curiously silent this campaign season (save for a couple of polls contracted for FDL), is back with a primary poll in a fairly low-profile open-seat race in Kansas. There is no question that the winner in West Kansas' 1st district (which went 69% for John McCain in '08) will be a Republican. Therefore, as is often the case in Kansas (see Thomas Frank's book on the subject), the question is what type of Republican wins the nod. According to the poll, the "moderate" Republican has the edge. State senator Jim Barnett has 23% of the vote, leading the CfG/Ron Paul candidate, Tim Huelskamp, who trails slightly with 16% of the vote. The rest of the field is in single digits.

THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES

CA-Gov: Poll Confirms Whitman Blowout in GOP Primary
Despite the solemn promises from GOP state insurance commissioner Steve Poizner that he is going to "spend it all" in an effort to win the GOP gubernatorial primary, it is looking exceedingly likely that it won't help. Meg Whitman has a commanding lead in a new poll conducted for the Small Business Action Committee. According to the poll, Whitman leads Poizner 60-12. Whitman, it must be said, has been at a saturation level of advertising throughout the coverage of the Winter Olympics, with ads (tragically, the same ad) running several times a day for the past two weeks.

FL-Gov: Sink Continues To Trail By Double-Digits, Says Rasmussen
Rasmussen is the latest pollster to chronicle a race that appears, at least on the surface, to be slipping away from the Dems. Rasmussen has GOP Attorney General Bill McCollum leading Democratic state CFO Alex Sink by thirteen points (48-35). This is in line with other recent polling: the last poll to put Sink within single digits was released in November.

NM-Gov: Denish Holds A Modest Lead in Gov's Race, Says PPP
Democrat Diane Denish is the early frontrunner in the state's open-seat gubernatorial election, according to new numbers out today from PPP. Denish leads the best-known Republican contender in the field, Pete Domenici Jr., by a five-point margin (45-40). Against the rest of the Republican hopefuls, Denish holds double-digit leads. One liability for her potentially is her predecessor. Bill Richardson's number in-state are atrocious: his job approval is a paltry 28%.

OH-Gov: Improving Poll Numbers for a Dem Incumbent (No...Really!)
It's been quite a while since we've been able to cobble that particular headline together, but incumbent Democratic Governor Ted Strickland actually looks to have recovered from a spate of bad polling. The Q poll has Strickland up five points on presumptive GOP nominee John Kasich (44-39). The previous Q poll had the race tied, and other recent polls gave Kasich an edge. One note to defend against "lib-biased poll" accusations: the same poll gave President Obama his weakest approval numbers to date in the Q poll (44/52).

RI-Gov: Brown U. Says Indie Chafee The Early Leader
Brown University, which polls the home state of Rhode Island intermittently, hit the state earlier this month to look at the potentially interesting three-way gubernatorial race in Rhode Island. Against either Dem prospect, Republican-turned-Independent Lincoln Chafee leads, with the Dem in second, and Republican John Robataille running third. State treasurer Frank Caprio comes a bit closer (34-28-12) than state Attorney General Patrick Lynch (32-17-13). In the Democratic primary, undecided is the big winner, with Caprio leading Lynch 30-21.

PA-Gov: Undecided Big Winners In Primary Battles
In addition to their Senate polling (covered a little earlier), Franklin and Marshall also looked at the upcoming (May 18) primaries for Governor in the Keystone State. In both cases, a ridiculously small number of voters cited a preference. On the GOP side, it is a massive lead for state AG Tom Corbett, but even he notched just 26% of the vote (state legislator Sam Rohrer lags behind at just 4%). On the Dem side, the lack of attachment was even more apparent, as over 70% of voters did not pick a favorite. Three Democrats (Wagner, Onorato, and Hoeffel) all tied...at a whopping 6% of the vote.

TX-Gov: Dueling Numbers On Next Week's Primary Elections
Depending on whether you buy stock in PPP's numbers or Rasmussen's, Texas Governor Rick Perry may or may not be able avoid a runoff in next week's GOP gubernatorial primary. Ras has Perry on the verge of winning outright on Tuesday, with the incumbent gaining 48% of the vote, to 27% for Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison and 16% for teabagger Debra Medina, whose numbers have clearly stalled. Meanwhile, PPP has Perry favored to be forced into a runoff, earning just 40% of the vote to Hutchison's 31% and Medina's 20%. For what it's worth, PPP also says that Perry would easily win a runoff, in any event.

In the general election, Rasmussen contributes some new numbers, and they continue to show near-certain (he has an insurmountable lead in the PPP poll) Democratic nominee Bill White in an extremely competitive position against his likely opponent, Governor Perry. Perry leads White by just six points (47-41), while Hutchison has a slightly bigger lead over White (47-38). Medina's recent flirtation with truther and birther hijinks have cost her dearly in the general election--White now holds a ten point edge (47-37) over Medina in the incredibly rare circumstance that she becomes the nominee.

WI-Gov: GOP Has Early Edge, Says Rasmussen
Rasmussen's numbers in the past two weeks have moderated somewhat in terms of where they sit vis-a-vis other recent polls. On exception would be Wisconsin, where the pollster sees a sizeable edge for Republican Scott Walker over Democrat Tom Barrett (49-40). Rasmussen also says that former GOP Congressman Mark Neumann also leads Tom Barrett (44-42).

Dear Harold,

welcome to New York. Make yourself comfortable. Have a bagel.

Okay, now that we have the pleasantries out of the way, I have a few questions for you. It appears you're considering running for the Senate from my state, and you know what that means? It means that you answer to people like me, voters, bloggers, that kind of grubby folk. And it appears you're speaking tonight to the Stonewall Democrats, the largest LGBT political club in the state.

So let's get started. I do have some questions.

2/25: You can find more comprehensive, updated story here.

This did not go well for Harold. If he had supporters, it was not evident. Many people held picket signs, with words like "Anti-gay liar," "Liar," and "Snakeoil Harold." If not for the efforts of organizers, it would have devolved into a real scene. 

The loudest applause came when Lt. Dan Choi expressed support for incumbent Senator Kirsten Gillibrand. He told Ford he seemed to be asking our community to "fire her" to reward her for her fierce advocacy. 

Ford didn't do himself any favors by asking a questioner to clarify what "Lawrence v. Texas" was. Ladies will be glad to hear the room was equally activated when Ford tried to distance himself from his pro-life past. 

The session was brief, lasting just 20 minutes. It appeared to be cut short when the room burst out in chants of:
"Anti-choice, anti-gay
Snakeoil Harold, go away."  

Not a photo-op for his campaign website. Local news channel NY1 was there.

Yes, our favorite tool, Harold Ford, is still toying with the idea of challenging Kirsten Gillibrand in the New York U.S. Senate primary. And, according to The New York Times, Ford just spent more of his wealthy wife's money on "testing the waters":

February 23, 2010, 11:34 am
Ford Polls New Yorkers on Himself and Gillibrand
By MICHAEL BARBARO

Former Representative Harold E. Ford Jr. of Tennessee has dug into his own pocket (Diarist's note: they meant "his wife's pocketbook") to pay for a detailed poll, conducted over the last few days, intended to test the viability of a Senate run in New York, according to people briefed on the matter.

The telephone survey, overseen by Doug Schoen, a Democratic pollster, attempts to gauge New Yorkers’ responses to a variety of positive and negative claims about Mr. Ford and his potential rival, Senator Kirsten E. Gillibrand.

Oh, the comedy never stops with this guy...

(more)

Dear Senator Kirsten Gillibrand,

Although I am just a progressive from Massachusetts who is a member of my local DTC/DCC, I am writing this diary to thank you for your show of leadership today in co-singing the Bennett letter for the Public Option through reconciliation.  I am also thankful for your courageous stand on Don't Ask, Don't Tell, and I would like you to know that many of us on Daily Kos support you and want to offer what we can in order to rebuff anything one of your opponents, "Helicopter" Harold Ford would say against you.  Senator, you are showing that you chose the People over corporations and I am just writing this to let you know that I am deeply thankful for what you're doing.

Well, it seems that the public option has gotten more momentum today.  All throughout the health care reform debate, it's been dead or alive or undead.  LIEberman thought he effectively killed it late last year, but it still has a following amongst our Senate.  A letter authored by appointed  Senator Michael Bennet (D-CO) has been submitted to Majority Leader Reid explaining why the public option ought to be brought up for a vote as a reconciliation package and it has been co-signed by Senators Jeff Merkley, Kirsten Gillibrand, and Sherrod Brown.

Read the letter below the fold.

I'm sure most of us remember the good news when Majority Leader Reid said "***k it" to the Baucus-Grassley agreement, a bill that would extend Build American Bonds and other nominal tax creation measures, but was poisoned with attachments to slash the estate tax when it re-surfaces from its Bush-imposed vacation in 2011, contained 31 billion dollars in tax extenders for businesses, and re-authorize some parts of the PATRIOT Act.  Now, K Street is disappointed at Reid's overruling of the bill in favor of one that doesn't have the above elements that do negligible job creation if any.

More below the fold.

With the disastrous campaign rollout for Indiana Republican Dan Coats this past two weeks, it looked like someone had finally eclipsed former Tennessee Congressman Harold Ford Jr. for the title of worst campaign rollout in the 2010 campaign cycle.

Apparently, Harold is not letting his title go without a fight:

Earlier this week, John Cook of Gawker asked the campaign of Harold Ford of Tennessee, Merrill Lynch, the DLC, NBC and the Park Avenue Regency whether Ford, despite living in Manhattan since 2007, had ever filed a state tax return.
It took a few days, but Ford's LIEberman flack Tammy Sun got back to Cook with the shocking answer -- "No."

Ford evidently claimed to work entirely out of Merrill Lynch's office in Nashville (where there is no income tax), and arranged to have his untold multi-million dollars in salary and bonuses paid there.

There is simply no good direction for Ford to go on this one. Ford has built his entire campaign apparatus in New York (where he is flirting with a primary challenge to freshman Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand) on the premise that he left Tennessee for his "new home" in New York City a few years back. Either he lied about that, and has never left Tennessee except to make a few bucks, or he is a "transplant to New York" who has evaded taxes.

Even if, somehow, his lawyers and accountants can find legality in claiming Tennessee residency while maintaining an office (and, at least, some public profile) in New York, the political opportunity costs for him here are frighteningly steep. It is going to be hard to hammer your opponent on...say...tax reform when your personal definition of tax reform is apparently not to claim residence in the state where you live, work, and are seeking election.

Especially interesting since in an appearance yesterday in Buffalo (where he is courting the endorsement of Mayor Byron Brown), Ford said that "Jobs, taxes, the economy, [are] foremost on people's minds everywhere."

If taxes weren't "foremost" on the minds of the New York electorate before this revelation, they probably will be in the near future.