Skip to main content


Mon Jul 02, 2012 at 10:25 AM PDT

Scott Randolph For FDP Chair!

by BKGyptian89

                Photobucket
                    This man should be next chairman of the Florida Democratic Party!

For the last several years the Democrats in Florida have been nothing but a rug, just getting nothing but step and drag on by Republicans who've done a great job in fucking up the state from the inside out. In a state like Florida that should'nt happen. Ever since the beginning of the 2000's the Democratic Party in Florida has taken a hit after losing of control of both state house in the mid 90's, then the Republicans were able to gerrymander the state like never before. Putting a hit on the Democratic party bench, which showed there inability to put first tier candidates for statewide races, especially for the Governorship.

You could wonder how would Janet Reno had fair if she became the Democrat nominee for Governor in '02 instead of Bill McBride (husband of Alex Sink). As we all know McBride went on to lose as Jeb Bush won another term. Then in '06 you had Jim Davis, the former Congressman who represented Tampa and parts of St. Petersberg in the US House, we also know how that worked out as then Attorney General Charlie Crist went on to succeed Jeb Bush as the next Governor of Florida. Florida Dems don't have a deep bench, nor many top tier candidates beside Bill Nelson. In 2004 we did field a top tier candidate in Betty Castor (mother of Kathy Castor), who ran a good campaign. She was elected as Education Commissionaire during Gov. Bob Martinez and Gov. Lawton Chiles tenure, and served as a state senator where she served president of that chamber. She eventually went on to lose by a hair to Mel Martinez (no relations to Bob). Then Bob Butterworth who had more of a statewide name recognition in being a four term Attorney General. In regards of Butterworth he did us a disservice when he ran a state senate race in '02, in which he ran a lazy campaign hence losing by 10. There was alot of options he could had done. He could had made a run for Governor if he felt like he could had beat Jeb Bush, or he could had just ran again for AG which would had been a sure reelection. By doing that he could had preserved himself for potentially succeeding Bob Graham in '04 for Senator, or Jeb Bush in '06 for Governor. Those races I'm pretty sure he would had won either one.

You look at the bench now for Florida Dems you only have four prominent folks and all four are women. Two of them you only can see just having a future in Tallahasse and the other two in Washington.

Alex Sink who still is licking her chops to go at it again with Rick Scott Rick will be a certain underdog and be a huge drag for other Republicans down ticket. She making alot of appearances around the state and judging by that gives you a indicator that she's going to give another go. It will be a huge surprise if she decides not to. Even though Nan Rich the minority leader in the Senate said she is running and a recent poll by PPP gave her a 47-34 lead against, rings true that anybody can beat Rick Scott. In reality though Alex Sink has the first right to refusal and acceptance before any other Democrat in Florida.

The next person that you can see have a executive in the Governors mansion shall Sink not decide to run (which is unlikely) is Pam Iorio the former Mayor of Tampa. She has vast appeal. The only knock against her is that she's not well known outside of Tampa-St. Pete. She's the type of Democrat that could make inroads and get tap into traditional Democrat land in the "Big Bend" part of the Florida Panhandle in North Florida.

The two following people in the Florida bench for the Democrats have more of a future in Washinton, Congresswomen Kathy Castor from Tampa and Debbie Wasserman Schultz from Fort Lauderdale. Between those two I believe Castor would be a better state wide candidate then DWS. Usually South Florida Dems don't have that much appeal, because Florida is much different once you get out the counties of Dade, Broward and Palm Beach. Plus Democrats will always win that part of the state. Even though by their politics and votiong records both women are progressive/liberal Kathy Castor brings more because  1. She’s from Tampa which helps alot 2. She speaks with a distinguishable Southern accent like Bill Nelson, which helps her in ancestral Democratic areas in the Big Bend part of North Florida and perhaps Jacksonville, unlike DWS who’s a SoFla girl thru and thru. 3. She’s a vigorous champion when it comes to seniors and the safety net. Castor is the type of candidate who can succeed Bill Nelson. DWS you can see as being a major Democrat in the House of Representatives, as she'll work her way up the leadership ranks.

After that Florida Dems don't have much and that comes from a history of consistent inability to field candidates possessing both the “retail” skills or "appeal" that would make who want to vote for them. With Sink that was the best candidate that Dems put up for the Governorship in quite a while. She had the "retail" but no "appeal" that would motivate the base. With that loss and a brand new approach about her you can see that she learned from that lesson and would be prime to squash Lex Luther like a cockroach in '14.

 

Continue Reading

For those who don't know, Florida's has been the staunches opponents fighting against the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act aka Obamacare. Which was led by the former AG Bill McCollum, and then pick up by the current AG Pam Bondi as well as Gov. Scott. For those who did'nt see this YouTube video posted on the Tampa Bay Times "buzz" page. You pretty much see them start getting giddy especially Bondi with Scott calling a 5 minute recess rushing thru the door. Then eventually finding out what happened. Then later giving there sore loser response, which I'm not even going waste my time putting up. You can find that on YouTube yourself. I loved seeing the right wing fuming mad from what happend Thursday just being sore losers cause they thought they had the 5 votes in their palm like they did with the other decisions that went their way. Then get upset when one of their very own did a okie doke on them. Make you question do they have a heart seeing that 30 million people would had went uninsured, and they would had been celebrating if that had happend because that would had been a defeat for Obama, plus they don't give a damn about the uninsured cause they don't give a damn about offering an alternative.

     

Florida means alot to me, I got roots in that state, and it's been a shame these Republicans destroy that state by gerrymander the hell out of it. Or disenfranchising Democrats and left leaning Independents, because they see the demographic time bomb they're facing and will start to lose the strenglehold they have on Tallahassee. And who could forget the shenanigans from the 2000 election recount that alot of us still have those raw and uneased nerves 12 years later.

As much as Democrats in Florida can't wait till 2014 when it will be almost open season like on Rick Scott who will be a huge drag on Republicans down ticket, we have to focused on making sure Pres. Obama and Sen. Nelson win reelection. We all know Obama wins Florida game over. Which I believe he will carry the state. I don't live in Florida but us Dems and Kossacks who live in Florida, that should be priority number 1. Then we can start on 2014 not only by taking out Rick Scott and his Lieutenant (in Florida Gov & Lt. Gov run on the same ticket), but also the Attorney General. Those two have been nothing but teabaggin idiots who've been an outright disaster for the state. I hope we beat Atwater too, but that maybe a lil bit of a stretch. And hopefully Democratic efforts will be lead by the next party chair Scott Randolph, who I will write about his declared candidacy and what it means for Fla Dems present and future.

Discuss

Mon Jun 04, 2012 at 07:00 PM PDT

'12 Senate Races (June-4-12)

by BKGyptian89

Marquee Races & Ones To Keep An Eye On

Updates: MI, MO, MT, NM, OH, WI

Arizona
Open Seat: (R) Jon Kyl retiring
Democrat: Former Surgeon Gen. Richard Carmona
Republican: Rep. Jeff Flake
Rating: Leans Republican Hold

Background: (11-29-11) People were telling me that I should write about the Arizona race, and I'm finally am. First understand the reason I wasn't to quick to write about was I wanted to wait and see the first pollings, and how the race was developing. I was bummed out that as soon the seat became open Homeland Secretaty & Former Gov. Janet Napolitano right away dismiss herself out of the running. If the assassination attempt of Gabby Giffords never happened, sources close to her inner circle said she was going to run, anticipating a Kyl retirement. If that never happened, polls showed the GOP will have a fight on it's hands to hold this seat if Giffords decided to run. Obama looks like he is going to make a push in Arizona, and I believe the President can be formidable in the Grand Canyon State.

Former Surgeon Gen. Richard Carmona looks to be a great candidate. The fact he is just trailing Flake with little to no name recognition is quite amazing. It also show that Arizona is trending purple. The state is pretty much even. A third Republican, a third Democrat, and the other third independent. I would definitely love team blue to pick up Sen. "Not intended to be a factual statement" seat. Alot of the ratings giants such as Sabato, and Real Clear have now move this Lean Republican, while the other have it as likely. I have to go with the latter and rate this Lean GOP hold for rite now.

(3-28-12): Carmona is going to run a spirited race, but it's still Flake's to lose. I think Arizona is one presidential year of away from becoming a purple state. Instead of paying attention to this senate seat, we should look at the other one that's up in '16. John McCain is likely to retire, and you can expect Dems to heavily recruit Homeland Dept. Sec. Janet Napolitano.

Connecticut
Open Seat: (ID) Joe Lieberman retiring
Democrat: Rep. Chris Murphy, Former Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz
Republican: Former WWE Executive Linda McMahon, Former Rep. Chris Shays
Rating: Solid Democratic Hold

Background: (10-10-11) Two top tier recruits on the Democratic side, Chris Murphy & Susan Bysiewicz. On the Republican side you have Former WWE Executive Linda McMahon who got taken to the cleaners by now Sen. Blumenthal. Despite his on occasion distorting his military service he was able to win comfortably by a 55-43 margin. Carrying every county in the state except for the Northwest corner, Litchfield County. Chris Shays survived the blue tide of '06, but eventually the Obama tsunami caught up w/ him in '08 by losing his New York City suburban district in Southwestern Connecticut.

Bysiewicz has recently took a few hits in her numbers. Probably do to the fact of her playing musical chairs last year. Running for Governor, then instead running for Attorney General when Blumenthal was running for the open seat left by Chris Dodd's retirement, only come to find out she wasn't even qualified. Also her debacle as State Secretary by calling the very close Gubernatorial race between Dan Malloy & Tom Foley too early.

Those things, voters are most likely starting to remember & is what giving Murphy the edge in the primary & the general. Despite her pass stumble this going to be a great primary on the Blue team between two good candidates. Personally I would love to see more women senators elected, but no matter who wins the nod, Democrats shouldn't lose this seat. McMahon is going squash her opponents in the primary w/ her money only to blow it away in the general. Either way it's either going to be Senator-elect Murphy, or Bysiewicz, & so long to Joe Lieberman.

(12-27-11): Earlier this month DSCC Chair Patty Murray (D-WA) talked about their recruit's for the '12 cycle. When asked about this senate race Murray gave her full backing to Murphy. It's obvious the Dem est. wants Chris Murphy to be the nominee, and I couldn't agree more. Bysiewicz for the moment looks like she's weak, even tho she held a state wide office for 12 years. It's one thing when the Democratic est. in DC is not behind you , but it's a another when the est. in your home state is avidly! against you. So for Bysiewicz she get's no love from DC or Hartford.

(3-28-12): It's either Sen. Murphy or Sen. Bysiewicz. If McMahon couldn't win in a year like '10 when alot of Repblicans were elected to the senate who could only had got elected in a year like '10, what makes you think '12 is better.

Florida
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson
Challenger: Rep. Connie Mack IV, Former. Sen. George LeMieux
Rating: Leans Democratic Hold

Background: (10-10-11) I don't know what it is with Bill Nelson. Politicians all over DC would give a leg & arm to be in his position. Either he's a very good politician, or he's been extremely fortunate. I think both. Since being elected to the senate in 2000, Nelson has had the luxery of facing bad challengers. In '00 he faced Bill McCollum, which was a nasty campaign & his toughest to date. Nelson still won pretty comfortably by a 51-46 margin, that's pretty good in a state like Florida. Further proof that McCollum is a bad candidate is him losing to now Gov. Rick Scott in the Gubernatorial primary, Scott went on to barely beat CFO (State Treasurer) Alex Sink by the skin of his teeth.

'06 he had an even worst challenger in Fmr. Rep. Katherine Harris, who he just blew out the water! Nelson beat her in places that are Republican friendly. Places such as Pensacola, Panama City, Jacksonville, & Sarasota. I knew when Rick Scott got elected as Governor, Charlie Crist was politically shunned from Tallahassee & Washington GOP'ers, & Jeb Bush ruled out running for the senate, that Nelson had a much clearer path to a third term. Him & Democrats are going to benefit tremendously the fact that Obama is going to make a big push in Florida like almost every presidential candidate does, & that fact that the Dems have the Fair Redistricting in Florida where the GOP legislature in Tallahassee cannot gerrymander Florida's map on a federal & state level anymore.

Leaving a good recruit in the wings in 2018 shall he decide to retire. Bill is a very skilled pol & is a fairly moderate progressive. He has the edge & I think he'll win, but it's definitely going to be a close race. If he get's LeMieux who probably be bruised in the primary, he wins with some wiggle room to spare. If it's a far right tea party opponent like Hansner or McCalister, two individuals who support the Paul Ryan budget plan, that will play into Bill's hands in senior heavy populated Florida. Expect Bill to take them to the woodshed. As of right now this lean hold.

(11-14-11): Even though Bill Nelson was leading his Republican challengers by double-digits in the high 40's we all knew that wasn't going to sustained for that long as the election got close. Once the Republican candidate was know the race was going to tightened up. Guess what? The future is now for Bill Nelson. After having a change a heart Cornelius Harvey McGillicuddy IV, other wise known as Connie Mack has decided to jump in, and has made it a race. Still Mack has alot to prove. Welcome to to the big leagues (no pun intended). He giving up a safe house seat for a statewide election, against a tough incumbent who is not going to be easy to beat. It's going to be a very bloody GOP primary, benefiting Nelson. Like I said national GOP can't control their primaries. Just because he has a popular last name don't think for one moment his primary opponent won't drop the gloves.

There hasn't been a Mack on a statewide ballot in Florida in more than 15 years. '94 to be exact (his daddy was a former senator). There also was an early poll release in February as a hypothetical match up before Mack originally decided not to run, showing Nelson leading him 45-40. I don't think Bill Nelson is stupid where he taught there wasn't going to be a major shake-up in the race to challenge him, and he was going to cruise to re-election. Cause it certainly looked like it. The way he's been raising money, going to have close to 15-20 mil. He hasn't taking it likely. Given Mack's announcement I'm still rating this lean Dem, but a slight lean hold.

For some miraculous if Mack turns out not to be the deal the GOP hopes him to be, and loses the primary, then this Nelson gets easily re-elected. The good thing for Nelson is that you already know the huge push Obama is going to make in Florida. With Obama on top of the ticket, if Obama wins Florida (which I believe he will), then Nelson also wins. I think Nelson will outperform Obama in Florida, by winning pick up more counties such as ones in the Tallahassee area like Madison, and Hamilton. Bill can definitely win Duval, if he does then it's a wrap. Even if the election was today, against any of the GOP nominee I believe Nelson will still win.

(3-28-12): So it's like a race to the bottom between Mack and LeMieux to see who's the most stupidest while Nelson just keeps stockpiling tons of ammo, only to lose to Bill in the fall. You got Hasner who step out of a race in what was a long shot, to another race that's an even more long shot in FL-22, which was made much bluer. I've always believed Nelson has the edge in this race.

Hawaii
Open Seat: (D) Daniel Akaka retiring
Democrat: Rep. Mazie Hirono , Former Rep. Ed Case
Republican: Former Gov. Linda Lingle
Rating: Likely Democratic Hold

Background: (10-10-11) With Senator Akaka retiring, and Hawaii's favorite son on top of the ticket, it's very unlikely the Republicans flip this seat. The candidates on the Democratic side are Rep. Mazie Hirono & worthless asshole Ed Case. We all know what kind of gutter politics Case is going to run in order to try to win the primary that he won't win. We all know the muck he ran up in the that special election for Hawaii's 1st congressional district last year. Knowing that he had no path to being elected, instead of doing the honorable thing by stepping aside for the other Dem Colleen Hanabusa to win, he stayed in race thus splitting the vote. Resulting in Charles Djou the Republican being elected. Granted Hanabusa did win in November, but it just goes to show how much of a dick Case is.

My thought is that once campaign season begins Hirono is going run rough shot, and pull away to clinch the Democratic nod. She'll be the first women senator from Hawaii, as well the first ever Asian-American women in the United States senate.

(10-18-11): So it's official former Gov. Linda Lingle has official thrown her hat for the open seat in Hawaii. Some so call political pundit now has rated this as a "Toss-up" Pleeeeaasse (rolling my eyes).

(10-24-11): Maybe it wasn't wise to overlook Linda Lingle jumping into this race, and dismissing her as a joke because she has made this a race. So much so that I'm changing the rating to a solid to likely hold. At the same time it's no reason to get nervous. 1. It's a big hole in Ed Case chances of being the nominee, and plus most of the state party is behind Hirono. 2. Obama is on top of the ticket. I think Lingle has hit her ceiling, and can't get further beyond that mark. I tell you one thing tough, whoever is the chair of the Democratic Party in Hawaii should vigorously pull all the establishment, and every elected official to rally behind Hirono and make her the presumptive nominee.

(12-27-11): Great to know Murray fully supports Hirono. We all knew Case wouldn't get the message. He's pathetically complaning cause he know he has no chance at the nom. We don't need a ConservaDem from states were ConservaDems shouldn't exist.  

Massachusetts
Incumbent: Republican Sen. Scott Brown
Challenger: Former Obama Adviser & Consumer Financial Protection advocate Elizabeth Warren
Rating: Toss-Up/Democratic Edge

Backgroud: (10-10-11) This race should'nt even be marque, or competitive. If Martha Coakley just shook hands outside of Fenway Park, and campaigned like she really wanted to be a senator from Massachusetts, then we wouldn't have a Republican sitting in Teddy Kennedy seat. Maybe the Brown win was a blessing disguise, because Liz Warren is a far more better candidate then Coakley. She squashes the notion that Sen. Centerfold is untouchable. She already has Brown shitting in his pants. Also the people of Massachusetts like what they here from her so far. Massachusetts is pretty likely to go blue in '12, but I don't Brown will be able to convince the people to split their tickets. Until this race progresses further I'm going to rate this as a toss up.

(10-18-11): Just barely a month since she launched her senate campaign & so far Liz Warren has raked in a little over 3 mil. Making it very likely for Brown to be burning thru his 10 mil like you can't believe. Plus the report of Brown plagiarising from former Sen. Liddy Dole, make it safe to say it's been a crap month for Sen. Centerfold.

(12-27-11): With Elizabeth Warren now leading Scott Brown 49-42 in the most recent poll, it's becoming more and more likely that she is favored to win. Right wing groups like Crossroad are throwing their money to tarnish Elizabeth Warren. All that being said I feel confident enough to rate this from toss up to a lean takeover.

(3-28-12): The last several polls already gives us an indicator how this will shape up. Scott Brown is clearly going to outperform Romney in Massachusetts, but it likely won't be enough as Warren will likely have just enough to pull away and put this seat back in the blue column. I'm putting this back as tossup but with a Democratic edge.

Michigan
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow
Challenger: Former Rep. Pete Hoekstra
Rating: Solid Democratic Hold

Background: (10-10-11) After the red tide of '10 DC pundits believed Debbie Stabenow would be vulnerable. Probably because of Romney's Michigan roots, (assuming he wins the GOP presidential nod). The fact that he was born in Detroit & his father was Governor in the 60's. I beg to differ. 1. That was so long ago that people don't even remember those day when his pops was Govnah. 2. Mitt's "Let Detroit go Bankrupt" comment isn't going to play well in Michigan. 3. Expect Obama to tout what he did to save the auto industry. An industry not just vital to the Motor City, but the entire state of Michigan. Hoekstra is a crazy fuck. He Tried to run hard right for the GOP primary for Governor of Michigan last year. Even though I believe she's going to win this race, expect her to run like she's 10 points down. Got this as a likely hold.

(3-28-12): Pete Hoekstra just showed future politicians who want to run for office, particulary the senate how destory your campaign within a matter of days. Ever since he ran that ad he's been getting killed in the polls. I told you he's a crazy fuck.

(6-4-12): I think it safe to put this race in the solid category now. I never thought Michigan was in play to begin with. I think people thought so because this is like the 5 or 6 state that Mitt Romney calls home, but actually doesn't have a residence in Michigan. The latest PPP polls shows Obama up big in the Presidential Race in the Wolverine State as well as Stabenow in the Senatorial race. The senate race was competitive before Hoekstra ran that horrible ad during Super Bowl Sunday on the Michigan markets. I don't know about you, but I'm thankful he did ran that despicable ad, because that one less race Dems have to worry about.

Missouri
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill
Challenger: Former State Treasurer Sarah Steelman, Rep. Todd Aiken, Businessman John Brunner
Rating: Toss-Up

Background: (10-10-11) I think we all knew back when Claire beat then-Sen. Jim Talent by a 50-47 margin,who back in '02 barely beat Jean Carnahan, chances were she's going to have to fight for re-election given the swingish nature of Missourah. McCaskill is a smart & savvy politician. I know she not perfect & she goes off the reservation a bit, but by no means is she a Ben Nelson, or Evan Bayh. Guys who intentionally try to screw their own party at every turn they get. She preaches economic populism like her colleague Sherrod Brown from Ohio, & that plays well especially in the Midwest. Depending on who the challenger is, it's going to have and impact on the race. Both candidates are going to give her a run for money.

Obviously this is a prime seat that the GOP are eyeing & believe they could pick it up. If she has Todd "bat shit crazy" Aiken, she has a better chance of holding on. If it's Steelman she is gonna have to work for it either way. It also helps that Gov. Nixon is going to be on the ballot with her. She need to hope that Democrats have a strong ticket in Missouri along with her, and Nixon. So far that seem going in the right direction with Fmr. State Auditor & Chairwomen of the Missouri Democratic Party, Susan Montee throwing her hat in the ring for Lt. Gov. Even though I think she has the edge as of right now this is just a pure tossup, to close to call.

(10-24-11): Missouri Republicans are becoming quite nervous, and are starting to pull the alarm. They're having a rough time finding credible candidates for next year elections. Luckily Dems have top tier recruits for '12. Gov. Nixon is most likely a shoe in for re-election. State Party Chair & Fmr. State Auditor Susan Montee is running for Lt. Gov. Chris Koster who switch parties in '07 is running for Attorney General again.

Unfortunately State Secretary Robin Carnahan is retiring instead of seeking a likely shoe in for re-election, State Rep. Jason Kander from KC is looking replace her. We all know about Lt Gov. Kinder no need to go there. The two GOP candidates vying to take on McCaskill, Sarah Steelman & Todd Aiken are having awful, matter of fact horrific fund raising numbers. That's probably making McCaskill grinning a bit, but she still polling slightly ahead in polls within the margin of error. A little two close for comfort, but the bright side for Democrats is that Republicans are having such crap candidates that even though Obama probably won't win Mizzou, Dems would do better down ballot in the other races.

(3-28-12): McCaskill was always going to have a fight on her hands. Her saving grace is that her opponents are such minor league it's not even funny. She says even tho she's an underdog she knows her state well, and I take her at her word. I think she has a better chance then Tester in Montana, and will be able to pull off a very very tough race. It also helps in the latest PPP in Mizzou, Obama has pulled even.

(6-4-12): It's great to see McCaskill kind of her dig her self out of a hole. Those Ras polls out of Missouri, I never believe those because you know he likes to cherry pick races and try to set narratives. Still a toss up, let's she hope gets a real whack job out of the GOP primary. Which is all three of them, but especially Aiken and Steelman.

Montana
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Jon Tester
Challenger: Republican Rep. Denny Rehberg
Rating: Toss-Up

Background: (10-10-11) Tester barely won in '06 what was a good year for Democrats, against a very vulnerable incumbent Sen. Conrad Burns in a 49-48 nail biter. Tester also voted against the DREAM Act showing that he only cares about getting re-elected. He has the strongest challenge in Montana only member in the House of Representatives Danny Rehberg. Rehberg was smart not to vote for the Paul Ryan plan, knowing that Tester was going to beat him over the head w/ it. This race is most likely going to be a toss-up till election day

(11-29-11): You have to wonder what if it was Governor Brian Schweitzer running instead of Tester who had just do a one and done. Even tho I believe Tester has a decent shot in holding for re-elected. Those who think that Schweitzer should wait for '14 for the other Montana seat, you can forget about it cause Baucus is running for re-election.

(3-28-12): Unlike McCaskill in Mizzou, Tester don't have the luxury of having small time opponents which Rehberg is not. Even with the wacky stuff he's say he has a great chance to be the next senator from Montana. I never like Tester chances for reelection, he has a shot but I'm not sure he can pull it off.

(6-04-12): I underestimated Tester, he starting to hang in their strong. This goes back to a ppure toss up.

Nevada
Incumbent: Republican Sen. Dean Heller
Challenger: Democratic Rep. Shelly Berkley
Rating: Toss-Up/Slight Democratic Edge

Background: (10-10-11) This is one of the few seats that the Dems can pick up in a map that's is less favorable to them, where they don't have luxury of playing offense, and have to defend 23 seats. When the John Ensign marital affair scandal came to surface in 2009, he at first was still going to run for re-election. Then he decided not to run because he was going to get crush either in the primary or the general. Due to pressure to retire from the GOP senate leadership, he made way for then-Rep. Dean Heller, and decided not to seek re-election. Facing the prospect that he was going to face ethic charges he resigned from the senate, and Dean Heller was appointed by Gov. Sandoval.

The challenger Rep. Shelly Berkley is a formidable opponate, but she has had to endure some bumps in the road as of lately, involving her husband's medical practice. Personally I would had preferred Atty. Gen. Catherine Cortez-Mastos. Senate age wise she's young, attractive, ambitious, but most of all she's Latina. Having a Democratic Latina senator from a state that is 1/4 Hispanic would a good cast mate for the Dems. There would had been no way that Heller would had beaten her, especially with the Democratic machine that Harry Reid has built in Nevada over the years.

But still Berkley is a good prime recruit for Team Blue, and Mastos is a prime recruit waiting in the wings if a possible Reid retirement happens in 2016. Giving that Heller voted for the Ryan budget twice, It'll come back to bite him. The fact Reid has built a good state establishment for the Dems from the ground up, is a plus for the Berkley. I still believe the Dems have a good chance of gaining this seat.

(11-14-11): Even Dean Heller knows this is going to be a tough race. Also appointees, statically most of them don't get nominate for a full term. To me that's kind of a true, but also false stat. It really depends what state that senator is from. Shelly Berkley isn't just from Vegas, she is Vegas. Her fund raising capabilities is ridiculous. Because of her fund raising abilities she is tied with Heller. One thing to point out is that Berkley is polling with 3/4 of the Latino vote in the Silver State. That's the amount that help Harry Reid beat Sharron Angle, as well as Obama win over McCain in '08. If that continues then you can bet that Heller will be another statistic.

(3-28-12): When it's said and done, I think Nevada elects it's first woman senator. This is the best pickup chance for Dems after Massachusetts. If Berkley wins the senate seat in the Silver State, that also means Obama wins it at the presidential level. The fact that Harry Reid was able to win over 50 percent in '10, when he was the most targeted senator that year, given Nevada's economic situation, and the fact Sharon Angle was his opponent, is a testament on how organize and strong the Dems in Nevada are. Can't say the same for the GOP.

New Jersey
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez
Challenger: State Sen. Joe Kyrillos
Rating: Likely Democratic Hold

Background: (10-10-11) I had to put this race on here 1. because I live in Jersey & 2. NJ politics is quite interesting. Menendez became senator when Corzine was elected Governor of New Jersey back in '05, and tapped then-Rep. Menendez to be his successor. In '06 he faced quite a challenge from the state Minority Leader in the state senate Thomas Kean Jr. Son of popular Governor in the 80's Tom Kean Sr. When it was all said & done Menendez mopped up Kean Jr. 53-43 margin.

Menendez had to leap some hurdles. Some were partisan, some were political, and some were ethical. Specifically by at the time then-US Attorney for New Jersey Chris Christie. There's no love lost between the two. In '06 Christie tried to open & issue investigations & subpoenas against him in his politcal dealings in the Garden State, nearly derailing his campaign in a heat race with Kean Jr. Just two months before the elections. A blatantly partisan hit by Christie, which was an attempt to raise his stock within the GOP ranks in Jersey. Before he was in the Senate, his congressional house district comprises of New Jersey's two largest cities in the two largest counties. Newark in Essex County & Jersey City in Hudson County. Op-eds in the Times & Star-Ledger proclaim him as running Hudson County as a politcal machine.

Still his foes who've alleged corruption have still failed to generate a single indictment. However, Menendez looks good for another term. Menendez is a strong voice in the US Senate, in which he was a staunch voice for the DREAM Act & the Zadroga Bill. He is probably New Jersey most powerful politician. In 2001 he coordinated Jim McGreevey successful gubernatorial campaign, as well as state legislative races in New Jersey. Effectively ending Republican rule in Trenton, and establishing a Democratic trifecta, resulting in Dems controlling the State House & Senate. So far no major canidate has step up. I doubt Kean Jr. wants another shot (probably waiting for '14) whoever he faces Menendez has the upper hand as New Jersey is likely to go blue in '12.

(10-18-11): Blah, blah, blah. It's that same old story again. That story that suggest a Republican can win a federal statewide race in Jersey. Yet Roberto is still crushing his opponents. For some reason Garden State Dems seem to lead in polls, or labeled "potentially vulnerable". Only to win there race weather it's close, or a double digit blowout. At the end they win. It's like Garden State Dems are Lucy with the football, & the Repubs are like Charlie Brown always landing on their asses.

Just because folks in NJ the state I live in, would tolerate electing a GOP Governor at times as a balance to our Democratic controlled legislature, doesn't mean they would elect a Republican to the US Senate. Nor the White House. It's something that national Repubs can't seem to understand. Just let them keep believing that pipe dream.

(12-27-11): Anna Little who was a mayor from a small town in the Shore Region has put her hat in the ring. From what I heard she a Christine O'Donnell wanna be. State Sen. Joe Kyrillos is "exloring", not only for 2012 but 2014 when Frank Lautenberg will very likely announce he's retiring.

(3-28-12): The Garden State is fool's gold for Republicans. No way my junior senator loses!

New Mexico
Open Seat: (D) Jeff Bingaman retiring
Democrat: Rep. Martin Heinrich, State Auditor Hector Balderas
Republican: Former Rep. Heather Wilson
Rating: Leans Democratic Hold

Background: (10-10-11) Two very competitive primaries on both sides, which will lead to a competitive general. Heinrich & Balderas are the candidates on the Demoractic side. Both of them have very bright futures, and are quite handsome individuals. Obviously and rightly so the DSCC are not going to take sides in this race. Giving that you have a Hispanic candidate, in a Hispanic heavy state. Heather Wilson tried to run for Pete Domenici's open seat when he retired in '08, but lost to a more conservative challenger. Expect the same thing to happen to her again. She's not a favorite for the likes of the Tea Party Express, Club For Growth & Redstate crowd. Most likely they're going to roll with Lt. Gov. Sanchez. The thing is the Dems have two good recruits, so who ever wins the primary will have an advantage for the general due to the fact that New Mexico leans blue.

(6-4-12): The last two people to represent Albuquerque in the House of Representives is going to be the next United States Senator from New Mexico. Heinrich is the one who most likely is going to be that next senator. He's running well in the primary and the general. I don't see where Wilson is going to get any other votes from, in a state the leans Democratic especially in a Presidential year, she's just lucked out.

 
North Dakota
Open Seat: (D) Kent Conrad retiring
Democrat: Former Atty. General Heidi Heitkamp
Republican: Rep. Rick Berg
Rating: Leans Republican Gain

Background: (11-29-11) Well just like when we thought that this seat was lost, it looks like the former Attorney General from North Dakota has given us hope in retaining this seat. I'm kind of surprise, and not surprise. Given that she's been out of politics for a decade so it's surprising people still know who she is. Yet North Dakota is a small state with a population of 600,000+. That's about the same population of Baltimore.

We all know President Obama doesn't have a snowballs chance in North Dakota. Given that fact, how many state you know have drastically split their tickets in Presidential election? So many that you can't even count. Doesn't matter if the state voted for the winner, or the loser. It will be very interesting how this race further shapes up. The good thing for Heitkamp is that she has not been in Washington, and doesn't has a record. Most folks had this as a safe/absolute takeover. After Heitkamp entrance it went from Likely takeover. I'm going to give this the benefit of the doubt, and rate this a lean takeover.

Ohio
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown
Challenger: State Treasurer Josh Mandel
Rating: Leans Democratic Hold

Background: (10-10-11) In '06 Brown pick the perfect time to run for the senate when took on Mike DeWine. Who was the second most endangered incumbent senator that year, right behind Rick Santorum. also back in '06 then term limit incumbent Bob Taft was very unpopular, which resulted in Ted Strickland elected as Governor. Sherrod Brown toughest race to date was back in '94  with Newt Gingrich Republican Revolution. Brown eked out a 49-46 victory. Ever since then he has won pretty comfortably, but '12 he gonna have to fight. Brown has alot going for him, recents poll shows him running double digits among his likeliest opponents right now. He preaches that oh so good economic populism that play well in Ohio. Expect Brown to have the inside track in this race. As of now this is as a lean hold.

(6-4-12): I've been reading the diaries that Markos has posted on Sherrod Brown incredible ability to brush off the dirty GOP Super PAC money that have been throwed from every direction at him, and yet he's still in good shape. That's good to hear. He knows how to campaign and speak common sence and economic sence to the people of Ohio and that's why I think Sherrod Brown is holding his own

Pennsylvania
Incumbent: Democrtic Sen. Bob Casey, Jr.
Challenger: Fmr. US House candidate Tim Burns, Businessman Steve Welch
Rating: Likely Democratic Hold

Background: (10-10-11) The Casey name is like gold in the Keystone State. It's like what the Kennedy's are to Massachusetts, the Carnahan's in Missouri, Coumo's to New York, or the Landrieu's to Louisiana. Alot Democrats don't like his position on abortion, but beside that he's a moderate progressive, overall he's a good team player for senate Dems. He doesn't go haywire, or is a thorn in the side. Republicans just cannot find a top tier in this race, so I don't want to get confident, and put this as a solid hold. So instead I'm going to rate this as likely Democratic hold.

(10-24-11): Apparently the GOP in Pennsylvania can't find a good candidate to take on Bob Casey. These individuals who've declared themselves in the race are just waiting for an ass whooping. Tim Burns who lost twice two now Rep. Mark Critz in '10 one in a special election, and then in the general. Another candidate is a business man name Steve Welch. One candidate that I'm surprise that the GOP haven't been able to recruit is Fmr. Governor & the first Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge. They tried to in '10, but it didn't work. He's the only challenger to Bob Casey that could make this race competitive.

Virginia
Open Seat: (D) Jim Webb retiring
Democrat: Former Gov. & DNC Chair Tim Kaine
Republican: Former Sen. George Allen
Rating: Toss-Up/Democratic Edge

Background: (10-10-11) Just incase I need to refresh your memory Macaca should have been the end of his political career. Allen was a likely Republican front runner for the GOP presidential nominee for '08. He went on to lose to Webb. Apparently he has a good shot to win his old job back. Tim Kaine who Democrats had bust their ass to get him in this race, and finally did is very popular in Virginia, and was recently the former Governor. This is going to come the to two things.

1. Who's on the GOP presidential ticket. 2. The tea party effect. First if Allen does win the GOP nod he needs to wish for the Republicans to have somebody on the ticket that can attract voters in rural VA. If you look at my review for Wisconsin, no GOP establishment candidate has the nominee too him or herself. Remember the 2012 election does not begin until the Iowa caucus. So right now establishment GOP candidates are in a good spot, because people are not paying that much attention to their senate races.

So Allen can breathe easy for right now. Better believe once the campaign season begins alot of Tea Party candidates will generate traction, and take down establishment candidates. You already know of their names of those who cost their party senate seats last year, and those who won but GOP had to spend a few more bucks then they would have like. If Allen loses in the primaries then this is an absolute hold for the Dems, if he does survive, and depending on how he does, then race is a toss-up.

(11-14-11): If there's anything thing that the state elections in Virignia taught us last week, specifically the state senate races, is that the race between Tim Kaine & George Allen will be the most watched and tightest race in the country. This race may go to the wee hours of the early morning. It's a high possibility that the race will be called late night. Both men have been neck-and-neck in the polls. Just to point out the first ever polled conducted between Kaine & Allen back in November of last year, showed Kaine leading Allen 50-44.

Mind you this poll was release before Jim Webb decided not to run in February of this year. Kaine jumped in the race in April. Ever since then we all knew that the race was going to become tight as the months went on. As tight as polling is Kaine has lead in most of them anywhere between 1-4 points, only one poll showed Allen leading, and about two polls showed them tied. Anyway you look at it this race is going to be very very close. Obviously who ever wins Virginia is going to have a major factor who wins this race. I have a hunch that something is telling me Kaine is going to pull it out.

(12-27-11): Obama thus far is holding his weight in VA. Also same for Tim Kaine with a new PPP poll showing him with a 47-42 lead over Allen. I just got a feeling Tim Kaine always had the edge in this tight race. Dems will still have in fight to hold this seat, but I believe they're able hold this seat.

(3-28-12): Virginia is for lovers, not for social issues. Ever since the Republicans took over the state senate giving them a trifecta, they've done nothing put pass right wing legislation especially abortion, and womens health. It's no wonder why Obama and Kaine are reeping the benefits of that.

Wisconsin
Open Seat: (D) Herb Kohl retiring
Democrat: Rep. Tammy Baldwin
Republican: Former Gov. Tommy Thompson, Fmr Rep. Mark Neumann, Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald, Businessman Eric Holvde
Prediction: Toss-Up/Slight Democratic Edge

Background: (10-10-11) Obviously with the political climate that been going on in Wisconsin this is going to be one of the closet watch senate races on election night. Democrats just like all over the country got bulldozed in 2010, and in a result we lost control of alot of legislatures in the senate and house. In Wisconsin Democrats lost the Governors Mansion, State Senate, and House. Walker and the GOP began their anti-union work, but not without backlash and becoming within one seat away in losing the state senate in the recall elections in July.

Tammy Baldwin is a prime recruit for the Dems. A great progressive fighter, and shall she win not only would she become the first female senator from the state of Wisconsin, but also the first ever LGBT senator elected to the United States Senate. This race is going to depend on who is the GOP nominee. Fmr. Gov. Tommy Thompson is the frontrunner, but he does not have the nominee to himself. Honestly his best shot was to run against Russ Feingold, and he passed. As a result Feingold lost to Ron Johnson. As we saw in '10, Republicans cannot control their primaries (i.e. Nevada, Colorado, and Delaware).

I believe his time has past, and it's been a long time since he's been Governor. If Thompson does not win the nominee then the Dems have a very substantial advantage in this race. If Thompson does win, then it's going to be more competitive, but Tommy is going to be very bruised up. The fact that he has two futher right opponets, and Club for Growth against him. Also doesn't help that WI primaries are in September, he may too bruised to take on Baldwin. Baldwin does benefit that Wisconsin is a lean blue state. It'll also help if Scott Walker is on the ballot for re-call. Right now I got this as slight edge for the Democrat assuming that Thompson doesn't survive.

(10-24-11): I don't know if it can get any better for Tammy Baldwin. She pretty much has the Democratic field to herself, giving her an enough time to define & introduce herself to Wisconsin voters. While on the the Republican side it looks like it will be an absolute bloodbath. Former Sen. Russ Feingold lend his endorsement to Baldwin while other Dems are being smart & not challenging her. Her follow WI colleague in the US House Ron Kind making sure she has an easy time to the general & holding that seat. Plus lets hope that the WI Dems can get a successful recall of Scott Walker aswell his Lt. Rebecca Kleefisch. If that happens that'll give a huge boost to Baldwin.

(12-27-11): It's going to be a UFC style fight in the Republican primary. Giving the political climate which is anti-Scum, excuse I mean anti-Republican, because of Walker running rough shot thinking he could do what he pleased is about to suffer political consequences of a very anticipated recall. If Tammy Baldwin, and I expect her to do this preach income inequality like Warren in MA, also well as Obama has been doing since this fall, I believe she'll hold this seat for the Dems. I think that's going to be and should be the nat'l message for the Dems next fall.

(3-28-12): The June recalls are going to have implications on this race and the presidential race in Wisconsin. There's a plus descent chance Scott Walker get recalled. So far Tom Barrett who hasn't announce yet , and Kathleen Falk are very formidable candidates. The GOP have really overplayed themselves in that state. If Walker goes down, which is highly likely, Repubs can kiss Wisconsin goodbye in November.

(6-4-12): Given the recall race in Wisconsin I can't put this race as a lean hold for the Dems no more. It looks like this ass clown Walker has a good shot of just hanging on. For Barrett to win he needs about 50 percent turnout in Dem stronghold in Milwaukee and Dane county. He's done a good job in covering ground in the western edge in the state, which is usually Dem territory, and he's been scoping out the northern part of the state. The one thing I find interesting is that the recall election is not having that much effect on Obama's chances in Wisconsin in general. He's had pretty decent numbers, and is somewhat comfortably ahead of Romney in the Badger State. The senate race in Wisconsin is what I like to call a "coattail race". Virginia and Nevada falls under that category as well. Obama is doing well so far in WI, which likely will just push Baldwin over the finish line.

Discuss

Wed Mar 28, 2012 at 11:00 AM PDT

'12 Senate Races (Mar-28-12)

by BKGyptian89

I know it's been a while since I'd did my ratings, DKos Elections has already put their predictions. So I'll make mines brief.

Marquee Races & Ones To Keep An Eye On

Updates: AZ, CT, FL, MA, MI, MO, MT, NV, NJ, VA, WI

Note: Maine is off the list, as well as comments on Nebraska.

Arizona
Open Seat: (R) Jon Kyl retiring
Democrat: Former Surgeon Gen. Richard Carmona
Republican: Rep. Jeff Flake
Rating: Leans Republican Hold

Background: (11-29-11) People were telling me that I should write about the Arizona race, and I'm finally am. First understand the reason I wasn't to quick to write about was I wanted to wait and see the first pollings, and how the race was developing. I was bummed out that as soon the seat became open Homeland Secretaty & Former Gov. Janet Napolitano right away dismiss herself out of the running. If the assassination attempt of Gabby Giffords never happened, sources close to her inner circle said she was going to run, anticipating a Kyl retirement. If that never happened, polls showed the GOP will have a fight on it's hands to hold this seat if Giffords decided to run. Obama looks like he is going to make a push in Arizona, and I believe the President can be formidable in the Grand Canyon State.

Former Surgeon Gen. Richard Carmona looks to be a great candidate. The fact he is just trailing Flake with little to no name recognition is quite amazing. It also show that Arizona is trending purple. The state is pretty much even. A third Republican, a third Democrat, and the other third independent. I would definitely love team blue to pick up Sen. "Not intended to be a factual statement" seat. Alot of the ratings giants such as Sabato, and Real Clear have now move this Lean Republican, while the other have it as likely. I have to go with the latter and rate this Lean GOP hold for rite now.

(3-28-12): Carmona is going to run a spirited race, but it's still Flake's to lose. I think Arizona is one presidential year of away from becoming a purple state. Instead of paying attention to this senate seat, we should look at the other one that's up in '16. John McCain is likely to retire, and you can expect Dems to heavily recruit Homeland Dept. Sec. Janet Napolitano.

Connecticut
Open Seat: (ID) Joe Lieberman retiring
Democrat: Rep. Chris Murphy, Former Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz
Republican: Former WWE Executive Linda McMahon, Former Rep. Chris Shays
Rating: Solid Democratic Hold

Background: (10-10-11) Two top tier recruits on the Democratic side, Chris Murphy & Susan Bysiewicz. On the Republican side you have Former WWE Executive Linda McMahon who got taken to the cleaners by now Sen. Blumenthal. Despite his on occasion distorting his military service he was able to win comfortably by a 55-43 margin. Carrying every county in the state except for the Northwest corner, Litchfield County. Chris Shays survived the blue tide of '06, but eventually the Obama tsunami caught up w/ him in '08 by losing his New York City suburban district in Southwestern Connecticut.

Bysiewicz has recently took a few hits in her numbers. Probably do to the fact of her playing musical chairs last year. Running for Governor, then instead running for Attorney General when Blumenthal was running for the open seat left by Chris Dodd's retirement, only come to find out she wasn't even qualified. Also her debacle as State Secretary by calling the very close Gubernatorial race between Dan Malloy & Tom Foley too early.

Those things, voters are most likely starting to remember & is what giving Murphy the edge in the primary & the general. Despite her pass stumble this going to be a great primary on the Blue team between two good candidates. Personally I would love to see more women senators elected, but no matter who wins the nod, Democrats shouldn't lose this seat. McMahon is going squash her opponents in the primary w/ her money only to blow it away in the general. Either way it's either going to be Senator-elect Murphy, or Bysiewicz, & so long to Joe Lieberman.

(12-27-11): Earlier this month DSCC Chair Patty Murray (D-WA) talked about their recruit's for the '12 cycle. When asked about this senate race Murray gave her full backing to Murphy. It's obvious the Dem est. wants Chris Murphy to be the nominee, and I couldn't agree more. Bysiewicz for the moment looks like she's weak, even tho she held a state wide office for 12 years. It's one thing when the Democratic est. in DC is not behind you , but it's a another when the est. in your home state is avidly! against you. So for Bysiewicz she get's no love from DC or Hartford.

(3-28-12): It's either Sen. Murphy or Sen. Bysiewicz. If McMahon couldn't win in a year like '10 when alot of Repblicans were elected to the senate who could only had got elected in a year like '10, what makes you think '12 is better.

Florida
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson
Challenger: Rep. Connie Mack IV, Former. Sen. George LeMieux
Rating: Leans Democratic Hold

Background: (10-10-11) I don't know what it is with Bill Nelson. Politicians all over DC would give a leg & arm to be in his position. Either he's a very good politician, or he's been extremely fortunate. I think both. Since being elected to the senate in 2000, Nelson has had the luxery of facing bad challengers. In '00 he faced Bill McCollum, which was a nasty campaign & his toughest to date. Nelson still won pretty comfortably by a 51-46 margin, that's pretty good in a state like Florida. Further proof that McCollum is a bad candidate is him losing to now Gov. Rick Scott in the Gubernatorial primary, Scott went on to barely beat CFO (State Treasurer) Alex Sink by the skin of his teeth.

'06 he had an even worst challenger in Fmr. Rep. Katherine Harris, who he just blew out the water! Nelson beat her in places that are Republican friendly. Places such as Pensacola, Panama City, Jacksonville, & Sarasota. I knew when Rick Scott got elected as Governor, Charlie Crist was politically shunned from Tallahassee & Washington GOP'ers, & Jeb Bush ruled out running for the senate, that Nelson had a much clearer path to a third term. Him & Democrats are going to benefit tremendously the fact that Obama is going to make a big push in Florida like almost every presidential candidate does, & that fact that the Dems have the Fair Redistricting in Florida where the GOP legislature in Tallahassee cannot gerrymander Florida's map on a federal & state level anymore.

Leaving a good recruit in the wings in 2018 shall he decide to retire. Bill is a very skilled pol & is a fairly moderate progressive. He has the edge & I think he'll win, but it's definitely going to be a close race. If he get's LeMieux who probably be bruised in the primary, he wins with some wiggle room to spare. If it's a far right tea party opponent like Hansner or McCalister, two individuals who support the Paul Ryan budget plan, that will play into Bill's hands in senior heavy populated Florida. Expect Bill to take them to the woodshed. As of right now this lean hold.

(11-14-11): Even though Bill Nelson was leading his Republican challengers by double-digits in the high 40's we all knew that wasn't going to sustained for that long as the election got close. Once the Republican candidate was know the race was going to tightened up. Guess what? The future is now for Bill Nelson. After having a change a heart Cornelius Harvey McGillicuddy IV, other wise known as Connie Mack has decided to jump in, and has made it a race. Still Mack has alot to prove. Welcome to to the big leagues (no pun intended). He giving up a safe house seat for a statewide election, against a tough incumbent who is not going to be easy to beat. It's going to be a very bloody GOP primary, benefiting Nelson. Like I said national GOP can't control their primaries. Just because he has a popular last name don't think for one moment his primary opponent won't drop the gloves.

There hasn't been a Mack on a statewide ballot in Florida in more than 15 years. '94 to be exact (his daddy was a former senator). There also was an early poll release in February as a hypothetical match up before Mack originally decided not to run, showing Nelson leading him 45-40. I don't think Bill Nelson is stupid where he taught there wasn't going to be a major shake-up in the race to challenge him, and he was going to cruise to re-election. Cause it certainly looked like it. The way he's been raising money, going to have close to 15-20 mil. He hasn't taking it likely. Given Mack's announcement I'm still rating this lean Dem, but a slight lean hold.

For some miraculous if Mack turns out not to be the deal the GOP hopes him to be, and loses the primary, then this Nelson gets easily re-elected. The good thing for Nelson is that you already know the huge push Obama is going to make in Florida. With Obama on top of the ticket, if Obama wins Florida (which I believe he will), then Nelson also wins. I think Nelson will outperform Obama in Florida, by winning pick up more counties such as ones in the Tallahassee area like Madison, and Hamilton. Bill can definitely win Duval, if he does then it's a wrap. Even if the election was today, against any of the GOP nominee I believe Nelson will still win.

(3-28-12): So it's like a race to the bottom between Mack and LeMieux to see who's the most stupidest while Nelson just keeps stockpiling tons of ammo, only to lose to Bill in the fall. You got Hasner who step out of a race in what was a long shot, to another race that's an even more long shot in FL-22, which was made much bluer. I've always believed Nelson has the edge in this race.

Hawaii
Open Seat: (D) Daniel Akaka retiring
Democrat: Rep. Mazie Hirono , Former Rep. Ed Case
Republican: Former Gov. Linda Lingle
Rating: Likely Democratic Hold

Background: (10-10-11) With Senator Akaka retiring, and Hawaii's favorite son on top of the ticket, it's very unlikely the Republicans flip this seat. The candidates on the Democratic side are Rep. Mazie Hirono & worthless asshole Ed Case. We all know what kind of gutter politics Case is going to run in order to try to win the primary that he won't win. We all know the muck he ran up in the that special election for Hawaii's 1st congressional district last year. Knowing that he had no path to being elected, instead of doing the honorable thing by stepping aside for the other Dem Colleen Hanabusa to win, he stayed in race thus splitting the vote. Resulting in Charles Djou the Republican being elected. Granted Hanabusa did win in November, but it just goes to show how much of a dick Case is.

My thought is that once campaign season begins Hirono is going run rough shot, and pull away to clinch the Democratic nod. She'll be the first women senator from Hawaii, as well the first ever Asian-American women in the United States senate.

(10-18-11): So it's official former Gov. Linda Lingle has official thrown her hat for the open seat in Hawaii. Some so call political pundit now has rated this as a "Toss-up" Pleeeeaasse (rolling my eyes).

(10-24-11): Maybe it wasn't wise to overlook Linda Lingle jumping into this race, and dismissing her as a joke because she has made this a race. So much so that I'm changing the rating to a solid to likely hold. At the same time it's no reason to get nervous. 1. It's a big hole in Ed Case chances of being the nominee, and plus most of the state party is behind Hirono. 2. Obama is on top of the ticket. I think Lingle has hit her ceiling, and can't get further beyond that mark. I tell you one thing tough, whoever is the chair of the Democratic Party in Hawaii should vigorously pull all the establishment, and every elected official to rally behind Hirono and make her the presumptive nominee.

(12-27-11): Great to know Murray fully supports Hirono. We all knew Case wouldn't get the message. He's pathetically complaning cause he know he has no chance at the nom. We don't need a ConservaDem from states were ConservaDems shouldn't exist.  

Massachusetts
Incumbent: Republican Sen. Scott Brown
Challenger: Former Obama Adviser & Consumer Financial Protection advocate Elizabeth Warren
Rating: Toss-Up/Democratic Edge

Backgroud: (10-10-11) This race should'nt even be marque, or competitive. If Martha Coakley just shook hands outside of Fenway Park, and campaigned like she really wanted to be a senator from Massachusetts, then we wouldn't have a Republican sitting in Teddy Kennedy seat. Maybe the Brown win was a blessing disguise, because Liz Warren is a far more better candidate then Coakley. She squashes the notion that Sen. Centerfold is untouchable. She already has Brown shitting in his pants. Also the people of Massachusetts like what they here from her so far. Massachusetts is pretty likely to go blue in '12, but I don't Brown will be able to convince the people to split their tickets. Until this race progresses further I'm going to rate this as a toss up.

(10-18-11): Just barely a month since she launched her senate campaign & so far Liz Warren has raked in a little over 3 mil. Making it very likely for Brown to be burning thru his 10 mil like you can't believe. Plus the report of Brown plagiarising from former Sen. Liddy Dole, make it safe to say it's been a crap month for Sen. Centerfold.

(12-27-11): With Elizabeth Warren now leading Scott Brown 49-42 in the most recent poll, it's becoming more and more likely that she is favored to win. Right wing groups like Crossroad are throwing their money to tarnish Elizabeth Warren. All that being said I feel confident enough to rate this from toss up to a lean takeover.

(3-28-12): The last several polls already gives us an indicator how this will shape up. Scott Brown is clearly going to outperform Romney in Massachusetts, but it likely won't be enough as Warren will likely have just enough to pull away and put this seat back in the blue column. I'm putting this back as tossup but with a Democratic edge.

Michigan
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow
Challenger: Former Rep. Pete Hoekstra
Rating: Likely Democratic Hold

Background: (10-10-11) After the red tide of '10 DC pundits believed Debbie Stabenow would be vulnerable. Probably because of Romney's Michigan roots, (assuming he wins the GOP presidential nod). The fact that he was born in Detroit & his father was Governor in the 60's. I beg to differ. 1. That was so long ago that people don't even remember those day when his pops was Govnah. 2. Mitt's "Let Detroit go Bankrupt" comment isn't going to play well in Michigan. 3. Expect Obama to tout what he did to save the auto industry. An industry not just vital to the Motor City, but the entire state of Michigan. Hoekstra is a crazy fuck. He Tried to run hard right for the GOP primary for Governor of Michigan last year. Even though I believe she's going to win this race, expect her to run like she's 10 points down. Got this as a likely hold.

(3-28-12): Pete Hoekstra just showed future politicians who want to run for office, particulary the senate how destory your campaign within a matter of days. Ever since he ran that ad he's been getting killed in the polls. I told you he's a crazy fuck.

Missouri
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill
Challenger: Former State Treasurer Sarah Steelman, Rep. Todd Aiken
Rating: Toss-Up

Background: (10-10-11) I think we all knew back when Claire beat then-Sen. Jim Talent by a 50-47 margin,who back in '02 barely beat Jean Carnahan, chances were she's going to have to fight for re-election given the swingish nature of Missourah. McCaskill is a smart & savvy politician. I know she not perfect & she goes off the reservation a bit, but by no means is she a Ben Nelson, or Evan Bayh. Guys who intentionally try to screw their own party at every turn they get. She preaches economic populism like her colleague Sherrod Brown from Ohio, & that plays well especially in the Midwest. Depending on who the challenger is, it's going to have and impact on the race. Both candidates are going to give her a run for money.

Obviously this is a prime seat that the GOP are eyeing & believe they could pick it up. If she has Todd "bat shit crazy" Aiken, she has a better chance of holding on. If it's Steelman she is gonna have to work for it either way. It also helps that Gov. Nixon is going to be on the ballot with her. She need to hope that Democrats have a strong ticket in Missouri along with her, and Nixon. So far that seem going in the right direction with Fmr. State Auditor & Chairwomen of the Missouri Democratic Party, Susan Montee throwing her hat in the ring for Lt. Gov. Even though I think she has the edge as of right now this is just a pure tossup, to close to call.

(10-24-11): Missouri Republicans are becoming quite nervous, and are starting to pull the alarm. They're having a rough time finding credible candidates for next year elections. Luckily Dems have top tier recruits for '12. Gov. Nixon is most likely a shoe in for re-election. State Party Chair & Fmr. State Auditor Susan Montee is running for Lt. Gov. Chris Koster who switch parties in '07 is running for Attorney General again.

Unfortunately State Secretary Robin Carnahan is retiring instead of seeking a likely shoe in for re-election, State Rep. Jason Kander from KC is looking replace her. We all know about Lt Gov. Kinder no need to go there. The two GOP candidates vying to take on McCaskill, Sarah Steelman & Todd Aiken are having awful, matter of fact horrific fund raising numbers. That's probably making McCaskill grinning a bit, but she still polling slightly ahead in polls within the margin of error. A little two close for comfort, but the bright side for Democrats is that Republicans are having such crap candidates that even though Obama probably won't win Mizzou, Dems would do better down ballot in the other races.

(3-28-12): McCaskill was always going to have a fight on her hands. Her saving grace is that her opponents are such minor league it's not even funny. She says even tho she's an underdog she knows her state well, and I take her at her word. I think she has a better chance then Tester in Montana, and will be able to pull off a very very tough race. It also helps in the latest PPP in Mizzou, Obama has pulled even.

Montana
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Jon Tester
Challenger: Republican Rep. Denny Rehberg
Rating: Toss-Up/Repulican Edge

Background: (10-10-11) Tester barely won in '06 what was a good year for Democrats, against a very vulnerable incumbent Sen. Conrad Burns in a 49-48 nail biter. Tester also voted against the DREAM Act showing that he only cares about getting re-elected. He has the strongest challenge in Montana only member in the House of Representatives Danny Rehberg. Rehberg was smart not to vote for the Paul Ryan plan, knowing that Tester was going to beat him over the head w/ it. This race is most likely going to be a toss-up till election day

(11-29-11): You have to wonder what if it was Governor Brian Schweitzer running instead of Tester who had just do a one and done. Even tho I believe Tester has a decent shot in holding for re-elected. Those who think that Schweitzer should wait for '14 for the other Montana seat, you can forget about it cause Baucus is running for re-election.

(3-28-12): Unlike McCaskill in Mizzou, Tester don't have the luxury of having small time opponents which Rehberg is not. Even with the wacky stuff he's say he has a great chance to be the next senator from Montana. I never like Tester chances for reelection, he has a shot but I'm not sure he can pull it off. At least McCaskill is working for it, I question Tester on that.

Nevada
Incumbent: Republican Sen. Dean Heller
Challenger: Democratic Rep. Shelly Berkley
Rating: Toss-up/Democratic Edge

Background: (10-10-11) This is one of the few seats that the Dems can pick up in a map that's is less favorable to them, where they don't have luxury of playing offense, and have to defend 23 seats. When the John Ensign marital affair scandal came to surface in 2009, he at first was still going to run for re-election. Then he decided not to run because he was going to get crush either in the primary or the general. Due to pressure to retire from the GOP senate leadership, he made way for then-Rep. Dean Heller, and decided not to seek re-election. Facing the prospect that he was going to face ethic charges he resigned from the senate, and Dean Heller was appointed by Gov. Sandoval.

The challenger Rep. Shelly Berkley is a formidable opponate, but she has had to endure some bumps in the road as of lately, involving her husband's medical practice. Personally I would had preferred Atty. Gen. Catherine Cortez-Mastos. Senate age wise she's young, attractive, ambitious, but most of all she's Latina. Having a Democratic Latina senator from a state that is 1/4 Hispanic would a good cast mate for the Dems. There would had been no way that Heller would had beaten her, especially with the Democratic machine that Harry Reid has built in Nevada over the years.

But still Berkley is a good prime recruit for Team Blue, and Mastos is a prime recruit waiting in the wings if a possible Reid retirement happens in 2016. Giving that Heller voted for the Ryan budget twice, It'll come back to bite him. The fact Reid has built a good state establishment for the Dems from the ground up, is a plus for the Berkley. I still believe the Dems have a good chance of gaining this seat.

(11-14-11): Even Dean Heller knows this is going to be a tough race. Also appointees, statically most of them don't get nominate for a full term. To me that's kind of a true, but also false stat. It really depends what state that senator is from. Shelly Berkley isn't just from Vegas, she is Vegas. Her fund raising capabilities is ridiculous. Because of her fund raising abilities she is tied with Heller. One thing to point out is that Berkley is polling with 3/4 of the Latino vote in the Silver State. That's the amount that help Harry Reid beat Sharron Angle, as well as Obama win over McCain in '08. If that continues then you can bet that Heller will be another statistic.

(3-28-12): When it's said and done, I think Nevada elects it's first woman senator. This is the best pickup chance for Dems after Massachusetts. If Berkley wins the senate seat in the Silver State, that also means Obama wins it at the presidential level. The fact that Harry Reid was able to win over 50 percent in '10, when he was the most targeted senator that year, given Nevada's economic situation, and the fact Sharon Angle was his opponent, is a testament on how organize and strong the Dems in Nevada are. Can't say the same for the GOP.

New Jersey
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez
Challenger: State Sen. Joe Kyrillos
Rating: Likely Democratic Hold

Background: (10-10-11) I had to put this race on here 1. because I live in Jersey & 2. NJ politics is quite interesting. Menendez became senator when Corzine was elected Governor of New Jersey back in '05, and tapped then-Rep. Menendez to be his successor. In '06 he faced quite a challenge from the state Minority Leader in the state senate Thomas Kean Jr. Son of popular Governor in the 80's Tom Kean Sr. When it was all said & done Menendez mopped up Kean Jr. 53-43 margin.

Menendez had to leap some hurdles. Some were partisan, some were political, and some were ethical. Specifically by at the time then-US Attorney for New Jersey Chris Christie. There's no love lost between the two. In '06 Christie tried to open & issue investigations & subpoenas against him in his politcal dealings in the Garden State, nearly derailing his campaign in a heat race with Kean Jr. Just two months before the elections. A blatantly partisan hit by Christie, which was an attempt to raise his stock within the GOP ranks in Jersey. Before he was in the Senate, his congressional house district comprises of New Jersey's two largest cities in the two largest counties. Newark in Essex County & Jersey City in Hudson County. Op-eds in the Times & Star-Ledger proclaim him as running Hudson County as a politcal machine.

Still his foes who've alleged corruption have still failed to generate a single indictment. However, Menendez looks good for another term. Menendez is a strong voice in the US Senate, in which he was a staunch voice for the DREAM Act & the Zadroga Bill. He is probably New Jersey most powerful politician. In 2001 he coordinated Jim McGreevey successful gubernatorial campaign, as well as state legislative races in New Jersey. Effectively ending Republican rule in Trenton, and establishing a Democratic trifecta, resulting in Dems controlling the State House & Senate. So far no major canidate has step up. I doubt Kean Jr. wants another shot (probably waiting for '14) whoever he faces Menendez has the upper hand as New Jersey is likely to go blue in '12.

(10-18-11): Blah, blah, blah. It's that same old story again. That story that suggest a Republican can win a federal statewide race in Jersey. Yet Roberto is still crushing his opponents. For some reason Garden State Dems seem to lead in polls, or labeled "potentially vulnerable". Only to win there race weather it's close, or a double digit blowout. At the end they win. It's like Garden State Dems are Lucy with the football, & the Repubs are like Charlie Brown always landing on their asses.

Just because folks in NJ the state I live in, would tolerate electing a GOP Governor at times as a balance to our Democratic controlled legislature, doesn't mean they would elect a Republican to the US Senate. Nor the White House. It's something that national Repubs can't seem to understand. Just let them keep believing that pipe dream.

(12-27-11): Anna Little who was a mayor from a small town in the Shore Region has put her hat in the ring. From what I heard she a Christine O'Donnell wanna be. State Sen. Joe Kyrillos is "exloring", not only for 2012 but 2014 when Frank Lautenberg will very likely announce he's retiring.

(3-28-12): The Garden State is fool's gold for Republicans. No way my junior senator loses!

New Mexico
Open Seat: (D) Jeff Bingaman retiring
Democrat: Rep. Martin Heinrich, State Auditor Hector Balderas
Republican: Former Rep. Heather Wilson, Lt. Governor John Sanchez
Rating: Leans Democratic Hold

Background: (10-10-11) Two very competitive primaries on both sides, which will lead to a competitive general. Heinrich & Balderas are the candidates on the Demoractic side. Both of them have very bright futures, and are quite handsome individuals. Obviously and rightly so the DSCC are not going to take sides in this race. Giving that you have a Hispanic candidate, in a Hispanic heavy state. Heather Wilson tried to run for Pete Domenici's open seat when he retired in '08, but lost to a more conservative challenger. Expect the same thing to happen to her again. She's not a favorite for the likes of the Tea Party Express, Club For Growth & Redstate crowd. Most likely they're going to roll with Lt. Gov. Sanchez. The thing is the Dems have two good recruits, so who ever wins the primary will have an advantage for the general due to the fact that New Mexico leans blue.

 
North Dakota
Open Seat: (D) Kent Conrad retiring
Democrat: Former Atty. General Heidi Heitkamp
Republican: Rep. Rick Berg
Rating: Leans Republican Gain

Background: (11-29-11) Well just like when we thought that this seat was lost, it looks like the former Attorney General from North Dakota has given us hope in retaining this seat. I'm kind of surprise, and not surprise. Given that she's been out of politics for a decade so it's surprising people still know who she is. Yet North Dakota is a small state with a population of 600,000+. That's about the same population of Baltimore.

We all know President Obama doesn't have a snowballs chance in North Dakota. Given that fact, how many state you know have drastically split their tickets in Presidential election? So many that you can't even count. Doesn't matter if the state voted for the winner, or the loser. It will be very interesting how this race further shapes up. The good thing for Heitkamp is that she has not been in Washington, and doesn't has a record. Most folks had this as a safe/absolute takeover. After Heitkamp entrance it went from Likely takeover. I'm going to give this the benefit of the doubt, and rate this a lean takeover.

Ohio
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown
Challenger: State Treasurer Josh Mandel
Rating: Leans Democratic Hold

Background: (10-10-11) In '06 Brown pick the perfect time to run for the senate when took on Mike DeWine. Who was the second most endangered incumbent senator that year, right behind Rick Santorum. also back in '06 then term limit incumbent Bob Taft was very unpopular, which resulted in Ted Strickland elected as Governor. Sherrod Brown toughest race to date was back in '94  with Newt Gingrich Republican Revolution. Brown eked out a 49-46 victory. Ever since then he has won pretty comfortably, but '12 he gonna have to fight. Brown has alot going for him, recents poll shows him running double digits among his likeliest opponents right now. He preaches that oh so good economic populism that play well in Ohio. Expect Brown to have the inside track in this race. As of now this is as a lean hold.

Pennsylvania
Incumbent: Democrtic Sen. Bob Casey, Jr.
Challenger: Fmr. US House candidate Tim Burns, Businessman Steve Welch
Rating: Likely Democratic Hold

Background: (10-10-11) The Casey name is like gold in the Keystone State. It's like what the Kennedy's are to Massachusetts, the Carnahan's in Missouri, Coumo's to New York, or the Landrieu's to Louisiana. Alot Democrats don't like his position on abortion, but beside that he's a moderate progressive, overall he's a good team player for senate Dems. He doesn't go haywire, or is a thorn in the side. Republicans just cannot find a top tier in this race, so I don't want to get confident, and put this as a solid hold. So instead I'm going to rate this as likely Democratic hold.

(10-24-11): Apparently the GOP in Pennsylvania can't find a good candidate to take on Bob Casey. These individuals who've declared themselves in the race are just waiting for an ass whooping. Tim Burns who lost twice two now Rep. Mark Critz in '10 one in a special election, and then in the general. Another candidate is a business man name Steve Welch. One candidate that I'm surprise that the GOP haven't been able to recruit is Fmr. Governor & the first Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge. They tried to in '10, but it didn't work. He's the only challenger to Bob Casey that could make this race competitive.

Virginia
Open Seat: (D) Jim Webb retiring
Democrat: Former Gov. & DNC Chair Tim Kaine
Republican: Former Sen. George Allen
Rating: Toss-Up/Democratic Edge

Background: (10-10-11) Just incase I need to refresh your memory Macaca should have been the end of his political career. Allen was a likely Republican front runner for the GOP presidential nominee for '08. He went on to lose to Webb. Apparently he has a good shot to win his old job back. Tim Kaine who Democrats had bust their ass to get him in this race, and finally did is very popular in Virginia, and was recently the former Governor. This is going to come the to two things.

1. Who's on the GOP presidential ticket. 2. The tea party effect. First if Allen does win the GOP nod he needs to wish for the Republicans to have somebody on the ticket that can attract voters in rural VA. If you look at my review for Wisconsin, no GOP establishment candidate has the nominee too him or herself. Remember the 2012 election does not begin until the Iowa caucus. So right now establishment GOP candidates are in a good spot, because people are not paying that much attention to their senate races.

So Allen can breathe easy for right now. Better believe once the campaign season begins alot of Tea Party candidates will generate traction, and take down establishment candidates. You already know of their names of those who cost their party senate seats last year, and those who won but GOP had to spend a few more bucks then they would have like. If Allen loses in the primaries then this is an absolute hold for the Dems, if he does survive, and depending on how he does, then race is a toss-up.

(11-14-11): If there's anything thing that the state elections in Virignia taught us last week, specifically the state senate races, is that the race between Tim Kaine & George Allen will be the most watched and tightest race in the country. This race may go to the wee hours of the early morning. It's a high possibility that the race will be called late night. Both men have been neck-and-neck in the polls. Just to point out the first ever polled conducted between Kaine & Allen back in November of last year, showed Kaine leading Allen 50-44.

Mind you this poll was release before Jim Webb decided not to run in February of this year. Kaine jumped in the race in April. Ever since then we all knew that the race was going to become tight as the months went on. As tight as polling is Kaine has lead in most of them anywhere between 1-4 points, only one poll showed Allen leading, and about two polls showed them tied. Anyway you look at it this race is going to be very very close. Obviously who ever wins Virginia is going to have a major factor who wins this race. I have a hunch that something is telling me Kaine is going to pull it out.

(12-27-11): Obama thus far is holding his weight in VA. Also same for Tim Kaine with a new PPP poll showing him with a 47-42 lead over Allen. I just got a feeling Tim Kaine always had the edge in this tight race. Dems will still have in fight to hold this seat, but I believe they're able hold this seat.

(3-28-12): Virginia is for lovers, not for social issues. Ever since the Republicans took over the state senate giving them a trifecta, they've done nothing put pass right wing legislation especially abortion, and womens health. It's no wonder why Obama and Kaine are reeping the benefits of that.

Wisconsin
Open Seat: (D) Herb Kohl retiring
Democrat: Rep. Tammy Baldwin
Republican: Former Gov. Tommy Thompson, Fmr Rep. Mark Neumann, Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald
Prediction: Leans Democratic Hold

Background: (10-10-11) Obviously with the political climate that been going on in Wisconsin this is going to be one of the closet watch senate races on election night. Democrats just like all over the country got bulldozed in 2010, and in a result we lost control of alot of legislatures in the senate and house. In Wisconsin Democrats lost the Governors Mansion, State Senate, and House. Walker and the GOP began their anti-union work, but not without backlash and becoming within one seat away in losing the state senate in the recall elections in July.

Tammy Baldwin is a prime recruit for the Dems. A great progressive fighter, and shall she win not only would she become the first female senator from the state of Wisconsin, but also the first ever LGBT senator elected to the United States Senate. This race is going to depend on who is the GOP nominee. Fmr. Gov. Tommy Thompson is the frontrunner, but he does not have the nominee to himself. Honestly his best shot was to run against Russ Feingold, and he passed. As a result Feingold lost to Ron Johnson. As we saw in '10, Republicans cannot control their primaries (i.e. Nevada, Colorado, and Delaware).

I believe his time has past, and it's been a long time since he's been Governor. If Thompson does not win the nominee then the Dems have a very substantial advantage in this race. If Thompson does win, then it's going to be more competitive, but Tommy is going to be very bruised up. The fact that he has two futher right opponets, and Club for Growth against him. Also doesn't help that WI primaries are in September, he may too bruised to take on Baldwin. Baldwin does benefit that Wisconsin is a lean blue state. It'll also help if Scott Walker is on the ballot for re-call. Right now I got this as slight edge for the Democrat assuming that Thompson doesn't survive.

(10-24-11): I don't know if it can get any better for Tammy Baldwin. She pretty much has the Democratic field to herself, giving her an enough time to define & introduce herself to Wisconsin voters. While on the the Republican side it looks like it will be an absolute bloodbath. Former Sen. Russ Feingold lend his endorsement to Baldwin while other Dems are being smart & not challenging her. Her follow WI colleague in the US House Ron Kind making sure she has an easy time to the general & holding that seat. Plus lets hope that the WI Dems can get a successful recall of Scott Walker aswell his Lt. Rebecca Kleefisch. If that happens that'll give a huge boost to Baldwin.

(12-27-11): It's going to be a UFC style fight in the Republican primary. Giving the political climate which is anti-Scum, excuse I mean anti-Republican, because of Walker running rough shot thinking he could do what he pleased is about to suffer political consequences of a very anticipated recall. If Tammy Baldwin, and I expect her to do this preach income inequality like Warren in MA, also well as Obama has been doing since this fall, I believe she'll hold this seat for the Dems. I think that's going to be and should be the nat'l message for the Dems next fall.

(3-28-12): The June recalls are going to have implications on this race and the presidential race in Wisconsin. There's a plus 50 percent chance Scott Walker get recalled. So far Tom Barrett who hasn't announce yet , and Kathleen Falk are very formidable candidates. The GOP have really overplayed themselves in that state. If Walker goes down, which is highly likely, Repubs can kiss Wisconsin goodbye in November.

Continue Reading

As of now everybody has heard the shocking news last night of Maine's senior senator Olympia Snowe announcing her retirement instead of seaking re-election. Also to mention on her way out she had some scathing words for the GOP leadership, in hence acknowledging there's is no room for folks like her in the Republican Party. Don't be surprise if the other senator from Maine, Susan Collins follows Snowe's path and retires in '14.

With that being said I want to state my 5 reasons on why Chelllie Pingree should be the next senator from Maine, in what will be a sure pick-up for Democrats negating any chance for Republican controled senate giving Democrats more than 50 percent to hold the senate.

5. Grassroots Backing: Pingree entry in the race will automatically have the backing of numerous liberal and progressive grassroots group. She'll get the backing of PCCC who are trying to draft her, Emily's List, Act Blue etc. Mike Michaud entry in the race makes the Democratic establishment null in supporting a candidate, until the primary is over. That's why her getting backing from grassroots organization makes her a favorite.

4. Age: Chellie Pingree is about to be 57 in April, and in senate years that's considered being a young'n. So she'll be there for quite a while.

3. Gender: She's a woman, and I can't tell you how extremely important it is for more women to be elected to congress. Especially with the recent GOP legislative attacks on women's rights. 2012 is shaping up to be a very big year for women candidates. With canidates like Hirono in Hawaii, Berkley in Nevada, Baldwin in Wisconsin, Bysiewicz in Connecticut, Warren in Massachusetts and Heitkamp in North Dakota. It's highly likely 5 out of those 6 women could be the first female senators from their states. Not to forget the 5 current female incumbents that are running for re-election Gillibrand, Feinstein, Klobuchar, McCaskill and Stabenow. In '14 and '16 it's going to be even brighter for women with nearly certain retirements and great challengers. We have Gretchen Witmer in Michigan, Barbara Buono in New Jersey, Allyson Schwartz in Pennsylvania, Janet Cowell in North Carolina and Lisa Madigan in Illinois. Along with the handful sunshine gems in Florida with Debbie Schultz, Kathy Castor, Pam Iorio, Alex Sink and potential rising star Jessica Ehrlich. There's so many I could name, but I wanted for you to know how important it is for females to be running for congress and statewide office.

2. Progressive: Imagine her with Elizabeth Warren in the United States Senate. Two well known fighters for the middle-class it will be very great.

1. She's the best canidate: She's the best person to succeed Olympia Snowe, we can do so so so much better than Mike Michaud. He's is anti-choice and he is a blue dog. A blue dog in the mold of Ben Nelson and Joe Lieberman. Even though he's anti-choice, you have Bob Casey who is also anti-choice but he's supports contraception, and he votes great on every issue, and you have Blue Dogs In Name Only folks the Pennsylvania Pat Murphy and former Arizona Rep. Gab Giffords. So there are Dems that on some issues they differ on, but are overall great members of the party. Michaud is the worst choice, and I believe the Democratic voters in Maine will rebuke him in the primary.

Discuss

Tue Feb 14, 2012 at 06:44 PM PST

Michigan Is Obama Country

by BKGyptian89

Some folks think that Michigan may be in play this November. Particularly because Michigan is the birthstate of Mitt, and his father was a former Governor back in the day. Those who think Michigan is in play this fall can shove it where the sun don't shine. And I ain't talking about Seattle. I'm here to tell you right now that Michigan will be in the Democratic column not just this fall, but for years to come.

Let's not forget the Op-Ed that Mitt Romney wrote in the New York Times shortly after the 2008 Elections. The Op-Ed titled "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt". Here the first paragrapgh from the Op-Ed:

If General Motors, Ford and Chrysler get the bailout that their chief executives asked for yesterday, you can kiss the American automotive industry goodbye. It won’t go overnight, but its demise will be virtually guaranteed.
      The most telling in this piece is where he talks about "manage bankruptcy"
The American auto industry is vital to our national interest as an employer and as a hub for manufacturing. A managed bankruptcy may be the only path to the fundamental restructuring the industry needs. It would permit the companies to shed excess labor, pension and real estate costs. The federal government should provide guarantees for post-bankruptcy financing and assure car buyers that their warranties are not at risk.
People who would had gotten fired if the Republicans had their way, would not had been guaranteed their jobs back nor pensions they bust ass for years and years to receive. This is the ruthless economic ideology that Republicans have, corporations and profits over working folks. Ever since then he's been flip-flopping like he usually does. At one point he said "Obama took his advice" regarding the auto-industry. Then in today's Detroit News he wote a blasphemous piece where claims he's a "son of Detroit". He described the bailout as crony capitalism, and Detroit would be better off.
This was crony capitalism on a grand scale. The president tells us that without his intervention things in Detroit would be worse. I believe that without his intervention things there would be better.
      No wonder why Detroit's "favorite son" is losing in Michigan to Rick Santourum.

If it wasn't for President Obama and the Democrats in congress the American auto-industry would have been no more, and the State of Michigan would have fell off a cliff. That state would have cease to exist. Not only Michigan would have suffer, but the country would have suffer a Great Depression, beyond your wildest imagination. It would be impossible to comprehend the thought, nor articulate in the English language. It would had made the first Great Depression look like a flea on a dog's ass. Saving the American auto-industry was one of the best things President Obama did for this country. Most importantly it's probably the single best vote ever made by the two Senators from Michigan, Carl Levin & Debbie Stabenow. Along with most of the Michigan delegation. Just this past month week reports stated that Michigan had one of the best turn around in the Nation since the recession, still having a long way to go.

While Republicans talk about how we shouldn't have government intervention, or government at all. The only government intervening they like is in the bedroom, and a women's womb. We see that the auto-industry is roaring back. GM and Chrysler have been making record profits. In last years Super Bowl between the Packers and Steelers everybody was talking about this ad featuring Eminem, most likely one of the best of Super Bowl ad's of all time.

         

You don't have to be from Michigan to feel moved by that ad. For a city that has been through the worst of times, for a state that has seen it's greatest days seem like a distant memory, and for a region that has been bleeding for decades, they all relate to that ad. Republicans can't stand that the auto industry is doing so well. Not only did they hates last years ad with Eminem, but they hated this years with Clint Eastwood.

In that ad there's a quote that stick out like a swell thumb when describing the City of Detroit. "What does a town that's been to hell and back know about the finer things in life?"

I don't think, and I refuse to think that Michigan would vote the Republican ticket this fall with Mitt Romney, and whoever is his VP choice. I refuse to think they would vote for the party that advocated policies that would had let not just the City of Detroit, but the State of Michigan to go to hell and never come back!

The people of Michigan would be forever grateful for what President Obama did for that state. As far as I'm concerned Romney doesn't have a chance in Michigan.

Discuss

Tue Dec 27, 2011 at 07:58 PM PST

'12 Senate Races (Dec-27-11)

by BKGyptian89

Marquee Races & Ones To Keep An Eye On

Updates: Connecticut, Hawaii, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Virginia, Wisconsin

Note Indiana, Nebraska, Utah are off the list.

Arizona
Open Seat: (R) Jon Kyl retiring
Democrat: Former Surgeon Gen. Richard Carmona
Republican: Rep. Jeff Flake
Rating: Leans Republican Hold

Background: (11-29-11) People were telling me that I should write about the Arizona race, and I'm finally am. First understand the reason I wasn't to quick to write about was I wanted to wait and see the first pollings, and how the race was developing. I was bummed out that as soon the seat became open Homeland Secretaty & Former Gov. Janet Napolitano right away dismiss herself out of the running. If the assassination attempt of Gabby Giffords never happened, sources close to her inner circle said she was going to run, anticipating a Kyl retirement. If that never happened, polls showed the GOP will have a fight on it's hands to hold this seat if Giffords decided to run. Obama looks like he is going to make a push in Arizona, and I believe the President can be formidable in the Grand Canyon State.

Former Surgeon Gen. Richard Carmona looks to be a great candidate. The fact he is just trailing Flake with little to no name recognition is quite amazing. It also show that Arizona is trending purple. The state is pretty much even. A third Republican, a third Democrat, and the other third independent. I would definitely love team blue to pick up Sen. "Not intended to be a factual statement" seat. Alot of the ratings giants such as Sabato, and Real Clear have now move this Lean Republican, while the other have it as likely. I have to go with the latter and rate this Lean GOP hold for rite now.

Connecticut
Open Seat: (ID) Joe Lieberman retiring
Democrat: Rep. Chris Murphy, Former Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz
Republican: Former WWE Executive Linda McMahon, Former Rep. Chris Shays
Rating: Solid Democratic Hold

Background: (10-10-11) Two top tier recruits on the Democratic side, Chris Murphy & Susan Bysiewicz. On the Republican side you have Former WWE Executive Linda McMahon who got taken to the cleaners by now Sen. Blumenthal. Despite his on occasion distorting his military service he was able to win comfortably by a 55-43 margin. Carrying every county in the state except for the Northwest corner, Litchfield County. Chris Shays survived the blue tide of '06, but eventually the Obama tsunami caught up w/ him in '08 by losing his New York City suburban district in Southwestern Connecticut.

Bysiewicz has recently took a few hits in her numbers. Probably do to the fact of her playing musical chairs last year. Running for Governor, then instead running for Attorney General when Blumenthal was running for the open seat left by Chris Dodd's retirement, only come to find out she wasn't even qualified. Also her debacle as State Secretary by calling the very close Gubernatorial race between Dan Malloy & Tom Foley too early.

Those things, voters are most likely starting to remember & is what giving Murphy the edge in the primary & the general. Despite her pass stumble this going to be a great primary on the Blue team between two good candidates. Personally I would love to see more women senators elected, but no matter who wins the nod, Democrats shouldn't lose this seat. McMahon is going squash her opponents in the primary w/ her money only to blow it away in the general. Either way it's either going to be Senator-elect Murphy, or Bysiewicz, & so long to Joe Lieberman.

(12-27-11): Earlier this month DSCC Chair Patty Murray (D-WA) talked about their recruit's for the '12 cycle. When asked about this senate race Murray gave her full backing to Murphy. It's obvious the Dem est. wants Chris Murphy to be the nominee, and I couldn't agree more. Bysiewicz for the moment looks like she's weak, even tho she held a state wide office for 12 years. It's one thing when the Democratic est. in DC is not behind you , but it's a another when the est. in your home state is avidly! against you. So for Bysiewicz she get's no love from DC or Hartford.

Florida
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson
Challenger: Rep. Connie Mack IV, Former. Sen. George LeMieux, Former House Maj. Leader Adam Hasner, Ret. Army Colonel & University Professor Mike McCalister
Rating: Leans Democratic Hold

Background: (10-10-11) I don't know what it is with Bill Nelson. Politicians all over DC would give a leg & arm to be in his position. Either he's a very good politician, or he's been extremely fortunate. I think both. Since being elected to the senate in 2000, Nelson has had the luxery of facing bad challengers. In '00 he faced Bill McCollum, which was a nasty campaign & his toughest to date. Nelson still won pretty comfortably by a 51-46 margin, that's pretty good in a state like Florida. Further proof that McCollum is a bad candidate is him losing to now Gov. Rick Scott in the Gubernatorial primary, Scott went on to barely beat CFO (State Treasurer) Alex Sink by the skin of his teeth.

'06 he had an even worst challenger in Fmr. Rep. Katherine Harris, who he just blew out the water! Nelson beat her in places that are Republican friendly. Places such as Pensacola, Panama City, Jacksonville, & Sarasota. I knew when Rick Scott got elected as Governor, Charlie Crist was politically shunned from Tallahassee & Washington GOP'ers, & Jeb Bush ruled out running for the senate, that Nelson had a much clearer path to a third term. Him & Democrats are going to benefit tremendously the fact that Obama is going to make a big push in Florida like almost every presidential candidate does, & that fact that the Dems have the Fair Redistricting in Florida where the GOP legislature in Tallahassee cannot gerrymander Florida's map on a federal & state level anymore.

Leaving a good recruit in the wings in 2018 shall he decide to retire. Bill is a very skilled pol & is a fairly moderate progressive. He has the edge & I think he'll win, but it's definitely going to be a close race. If he get's LeMieux who probably be bruised in the primary, he wins with some wiggle room to spare. If it's a far right tea party opponent like Hansner or McCalister, two individuals who support the Paul Ryan budget plan, that will play into Bill's hands in senior heavy populated Florida. Expect Bill to take them to the woodshed. As of right now this lean hold.

(11-14-11): Even though Bill Nelson was leading his Republican challengers by double-digits in the high 40's we all knew that wasn't going to sustained for that long as the election got close. Once the Republican candidate was know the race was going to tightened up. Guess what? The future is now for Bill Nelson. After having a change a heart Cornelius Harvey McGillicuddy IV, other wise known as Connie Mack has decided to jump in, and has made it a race. Still Mack has alot to prove. Welcome to to the big leagues (no pun intended). He giving up a safe house seat for a statewide election, against a tough incumbent who is not going to be easy to beat. It's going to be a very bloody GOP primary, benefiting Nelson. Like I said national GOP can't control their primaries. Just because he has a popular last name don't think for one moment his primary opponent won't drop the gloves.

There hasn't been a Mack on a statewide ballot in Florida in more the 15 years. '94 to be exact (his daddy was a former senator). There also was an early poll release in February as a hypothetical match up before Mack originally decided not to run, showing Nelson leading him 45-40. I don't think Bill Nelson is stupid where he taught there wasn't going to be a major shake-up in the race to challenge him, and he was going to cruise to re-election. Cause it certainly looked like it. The way he's been raising money, going to have close to 15-20 mil. He hasn't taking it likely. Given Mack's announcement I'm still rating this lean Dem, but a slight lean hold.

For some miraculous if Mack turns out not to be the deal the GOP hopes him to be, and loses the primary, then this Nelson gets easily re-elected. The good thing for Nelson is that you already know the huge push Obama is going to make in Florida. With Obama on top of the ticket, if Obama wins Florida (which I believe he will), then Nelson also wins. I think Nelson will outperform Obama in Florida, by winning pick up more counties such as ones in the Tallahassee area like Madison, and Hamilton. Bill can definitely win Duval, if he does then it's a wrap. Even if the election was today, against any of the GOP nominee I believe Nelson will still win.

Hawaii
Open Seat: (D) Daniel Akaka retiring
Democrat: Rep. Mazie Hirono , Former Rep. Ed Case
Republican: Former Gov. Linda Lingle
Rating: Likely Democratic Hold

Background: (10-10-11) With Senator Akaka retiring, and Hawaii's favorite son on top of the ticket, it's very unlikely the Republicans flip this seat. The candidates on the Democratic side are Rep. Mazie Hirono & worthless asshole Ed Case. We all know what kind of gutter politics Case is going to run in order to try to win the primary that he won't win. We all know the muck he ran up in the that special election for Hawaii's 1st congressional district last year. Knowing that he had no path to being elected, instead of doing the honorable thing by stepping aside for the other Dem Colleen Hanabusa to win, he stayed in race thus splitting the vote. Resulting in Charles Djou the Republican being elected. Granted Hanabusa did win in November, but it just goes to show how much of a dick Case is.

My thought is that once campaign season begins Hirono is going run rough shot, and pull away to clinch the Democratic nod. She'll be the first women senator from Hawaii, as well the first ever Asian-American women in the United States senate.

(10-18-11): So it's official former Gov. Linda Lingle has official thrown her hat for the open seat in Hawaii. Some so call political pundit now has rated this as a "Toss-up" Pleeeeaasse (rolling my eyes).

(10-24-11): Maybe it wasn't wise to overlook Linda Lingle jumping into this race, and dismissing her as a joke because she has made this a race. So much so that I'm changing the rating to a solid to likely hold. At the same time it's no reason to get nervous. 1. It's a big hole in Ed Case chances of being the nominee, and plus most of the state party is behind Hirono. 2. Obama is on top of the ticket. I think Lingle has hit her ceiling, and can't get further beyond that mark. I tell you one thing tough, whoever is the chair of the Democratic Party in Hawaii should vigorously pull all the establishment, and every elected official to rally behind Hirono and make her the presumptive nominee.

(12-27-11): Great to know Murray fully supports Hirono. We all knew Case wouldn't get the message. He's pathetically complaning cause he know he has no chance at the nom. We don't need a ConservaDem from states were ConservaDems shouldn't exist.  

Maine*
Incumbent: Republican Sen. Olympia Snowe (As of right now)
Challenger: Former Secretary of State Matthew Dunlap House Min. Leader Emily Cain? Former Gubernatorial Candidate & Businesswomen Rosa Scarcelli?
Rating: Leans Republican hold

Background: (10-10-11) This has casualty of Tea Party written all over it. Snowe probably knew when Maine elected a tea party governor in 2010 in Paul LePage, she was in troble. Credit given he barely won in a four person race by two points. Still Maine Republicans are in a mood for a more conservative Republican candidate. There alot of If's, What, & Who. Lets start with Who? The Dems need to recruit a top tier challenger.

John Baldacci is a great pick up. Now with the If, cause if Snowe is taken down by a more conservative challenger, the Democrats need to have a nominee that could guarantee one of a few pick ups they'll have that night. That make up for likely loses in North Dakota & Nebraska. Now What? Snowe could take the easy way out & just decide to retire, but she already running for re-election. I don't think she'll become a Democrat, do a Crist & turn Independent, or do write-in like Lisa Murkowski if she lose her primary. The Republicans won't have that, they're hell bent on taking the senate on they don't want nothing slowing them down. She might just take a que from Bob Bennet & Arlen Specter (eat your humble pie and accept you loss). I know Markos has wrote alot about Olympia Snowe, and the dilemma facing her. As of right now this is a lean hold. Stay tune folks, because this is going to be one to watch!

(11-29-11): Yeah it's looks like she's above water now, but did you expect a little known person known to take down Mike Castle last year. The answer is no. At first it look like she was in heavy danger. She very well could be so don't take these recent polls for granted. As far as the former Governor making a run, that's not going to happen. I don't get Mainers, I really don't. It's a solidly blue state on a presidential level, but vote for two frauds who like to call themselves "Moderate Republicans". I really hope Snowe gets taken down.  

Massachusetts
Incumbent: Republican Sen. Scott Brown
Challenger: Former Obama Adviser & Consumer Financial Protection advocate Elizabeth Warren
Rating: Leans Democratic Gain

Backgroud: (10-10-11) This race should'nt even be marque, or competitive. If Martha Coakley just shook hands outside of Fenway Park, and campaigned like she really wanted to be a senator from Massachusetts, then we wouldn't have a Republican sitting in Teddy Kennedy seat. Maybe the Brown win was a blessing disguise, because Liz Warren is a far more better candidate then Coakley. She squashes the notion that Sen. Centerfold is untouchable. She already has Brown shitting in his pants. Also the people of Massachusetts like what they here from her so far. Massachusetts is pretty likely to go blue in '12, but I don't Brown will be able to convince the people to split their tickets. Until this race progresses further I'm going to rate this as a toss up.

(10-18-11): Just barely a month since she launched her senate campaign & so far Liz Warren has raked in a little over 3 mil. Making it very likely for Brown to be burning thru his 10 mil like you can't believe. Plus the report of Brown plagiarising from former Sen. Liddy Dole, make it safe to say it's been a crap month for Sen. Centerfold.

(12-27-11): With Elizabeth Warren now leading Scott Brown 49-42 in the most recent poll, it's becoming more and more likely that she is favored to win. Right wing groups like Crossroad are throwing their money to tarnish Elizabeth Warren. All that being said I feel confident enough to rate this from toss up to a lean takeover.

Michigan
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow
Challenger: Former Rep. Pete Hoekstra
Rating: Likely Democratic Hold

Background: (10-10-11) After the red tide of '10 DC pundits believed Debbie Stabenow would be vulnerable. Probably because of Romney's Michigan roots, (assuming he wins the GOP presidential nod). The fact that he was born in Detroit & his father was Governor in the 60's. I beg to differ. 1. That was so long ago that people don't even remember those day when his pops was Govnah. 2. Mitt's "Let Detroit go Bankrupt" comment isn't going to play well in Michigan. 3. Expect Obama to tout what he did to save the auto industry. An industry not just vital to the Motor City, but the entire state of Michigan. Hoekstra is a crazy fuck. He Tried to run hard right for the GOP primary for Governor of Michigan last year. Even though I believe she's going to win this race, expect her to run like she's 10 points down. Got this as a likely hold.

Missouri
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill
Challenger: Former State Treasurer Sarah Steelman, Rep. Todd Aiken
Rating: Toss-Up

Background: (10-10-11) I think we all knew back when Claire beat then-Sen. Jim Talent by a 50-47 margin,who back in '02 barely beat Jean Carnahan, chances were she's going to have to fight for re-election given the swingish nature of Missourah. McCaskill is a smart & savvy politician. I know she not perfect & she goes off the reservation a bit, but by no means is she a Ben Nelson, or Evan Bayh. Guys who intentionally try to screw their own party at every turn they get. She preaches economic populism like her colleague Sherrod Brown from Ohio, & that plays well especially in the Midwest. Depending on who the challenger is, it's going to have and impact on the race. Both candidates are going to give her a run for money.

Obviously this is a prime seat that the GOP are eyeing & believe they could pick it up. If she has Todd "bat shit crazy" Aiken, she has a better chance of holding on. If it's Steelman she is gonna have to work for it either way. It also helps that Gov. Nixon is going to be on the ballot with her. She need to hope that Democrats have a strong ticket in Missouri along with her, and Nixon. So far that seem going in the right direction with Fmr. State Auditor & Chairwomen of the Missouri Democratic Party, Susan Montee throwing her hat in the ring for Lt. Gov. Even though I think she has the edge as of right now this is just a pure tossup, to close to call.

(10-24-11): Missouri Republicans are becoming quite nervous, and are starting to pull the alarm. They're having a rough time finding credible candidates for next year elections. Luckily Dems have top tier recruits for '12. Gov. Nixon is most likely a shoe in for re-election. State Party Chair & Fmr. State Auditor Susan Montee is running for Lt. Gov. Chris Koster who switch parties in '07 is running for Attorney General again.

Unfortunately State Secretary Robin Carnahan is retiring instead of seeking a likely shoe in for re-election, State Rep. Jason Kander from KC is looking replace her. We all know about Lt Gov. Kinder no need to go there. The two GOP candidates vying to take on McCaskill, Sarah Steelman & Todd Aiken are having awful, matter of fact horrific fund raising numbers. That's probably making McCaskill grinning a bit, but she still polling slightly ahead in polls within the margin of error. A little two close for comfort, but the bright side for Democrats is that Republicans are having such crap candidates that even though Obama probably won't win Mizzou, Dems would do better down ballot in the other races.

Montana
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Jon Tester
Challenger: Republican Rep. Denny Rehberg
Rating: Toss-Up

Background: (10-10-11) Tester barely won in '06 what was a good year for Democrats, against a very vulnerable incumbent Sen. Conrad Burns in a 49-48 nail biter. Tester also voted against the DREAM Act showing that he only cares about getting re-elected. He has the strongest challenge in Montana only member in the House of Representatives Danny Rehberg. Rehberg was smart not to vote for the Paul Ryan plan, knowing that Tester was going to beat him over the head w/ it. This race is most likely going to be a toss-up till election day

(11-29-11): You have to wonder what if it was Governor Brian Schweitzer running instead of Tester who had just do a one and done. Even tho I believe Tester has a decent shot in holding for re-elected. Those who think that Schweitzer should wait for '14 for the other Montana seat, you can forget about it cause Baucus is running for re-election.

Nevada
Incumbent: Republican Sen. Dean Heller
Challenger: Democratic Rep. Shelly Berkley
Rating: Toss-up/Democratic Edge

Background: (10-10-11) This is one of the few seats that the Dems can pick up in a map that's is less favorable to them, where they don't have luxury of playing offense, and have to defend 23 seats. When the John Ensign marital affair scandal came to surface in 2009, he at first was still going to run for re-election. Then he decided not to run because he was going to get crush either in the primary or the general. Due to pressure to retire from the GOP senate leadership, he made way for then-Rep. Dean Heller, and decided not to seek re-election. Facing the prospect that he was going to face ethic charges he resigned from the senate, and Dean Heller was appointed by Gov. Sandoval.

The challenger Rep. Shelly Berkley is a formidable opponate, but she has had to endure some bumps in the road as of lately, involving her husband's medical practice. Personally I would had preferred Atty. Gen. Catherine Cortez-Mastos. Senate age wise she's young, attractive, ambitious, but most of all she's Latina. Having a Democratic Latina senator from a state that is 1/4 Hispanic would a good cast mate for the Dems. There would had been no way that Heller would had beaten her, especially with the Democratic machine that Harry Reid has built in Nevada over the years.

But still Berkley is a good prime recruit for Team Blue, and Mastos is a prime recruit waiting in the wings if a possible Reid retirement happens in 2016. Giving that Heller voted for the Ryan budget twice, It'll come back to bite him. The fact Reid has built a good state establishment for the Dems from the ground up, is a plus for the Berkley. I still believe the Dems have a good chance of gaining this seat.

(11-14-11): Even Dean Heller knows this is going to be a tough race. Also appointees, statically most of them don't get nominate for a full term. To me that's kind of a true, but also false stat. It really depends what state that senator is from. Shelly Berkley isn't just from Vegas, she is Vegas. Her fund raising capabilities is ridiculous. Because of her fund raising abilities she is tied with Heller. One thing to point out is that Berkley is polling with 3/4 of the Latino vote in the Silver State. That's the amount that help Harry Reid beat Sharron Angle, as well as Obama win over McCain in '08. If that continues then you can bet that Heller will be another statistic.

New Jersey
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez
Challenger: State Sen. Joe Kyrillos
Rating: Likely Democratic Hold

Background: (10-10-11) I had to put this race on here 1. because I live in Jersey & 2. NJ politics is quite interesting. Menendez became senator when Corzine was elected Governor of New Jersey back in '05, and tapped then-Rep. Menendez to be his successor. In '06 he faced quite a challenge from the state Minority Leader in the in the state senate Thomas Kean Jr. Son of popular Governor in the 80's Tom Kean Sr. When it was all said & done Menendez mopped up Kean Jr. 53-43 margin.

Menendez had to leap some hurdles. Some were partisan, some were political, and some were ethical. Specifically by at the time then-US Attorney for New Jersey Chris Christie. There's no love lost between the two. In '06 Christie tried to open & issue investigations & subpoenas against him in his politcal dealings in the Garden State, nearly derailing his campaign in a heat race with Kean Jr. Just two months before the elections. A blatantly partisan hit by Christie, which was an attempt to raise his stock within the GOP ranks in Jersey. Before he was in the Senate, his congressional house district comprises of New Jersey's two largest cities in the two largest counties. Newark in Essex County & Jersey City in Hudson County. Op-eds in the Times & Star-Ledger proclaim him as running Hudson County as a politcal machine.

Still his foes who've alleged corruption have still failed to generate a single indictment. However, Menendez looks good for another term. Menendez is a strong voice in the US Senate, in which he was a staunch voice for the DREAM Act & the Zadroga Bill. He is probably New Jersey most powerful politician. In 2001 he coordinated Jim McGreevey successful gubernatorial campaign, as well as state legislative races in New Jersey. Effectively ending Republican rule in Trenton, and establishing a Democratic trifecta, resulting in Dems controlling the State House & Senate. So far no major canidate has step up. I doubt Kean Jr. wants another shot (probably waiting for '14) whoever he faces Menendez has the upper hand as New Jersey is likely to go blue in '12.

(10-18-11): Blah, blah, blah. It's that same old story again. That story that suggest a Republican can win a federal statewide race in Jersey. Yet Roberto is still crushing his opponents. For some reason Garden State Dems seem to lead in polls, or labeled "potentially vulnerable". Only to win there race weather it's close, or a double digit blowout. At the end they win. It's like Garden State Dems are Lucy with the football, & the Repubs are like Charlie Brown always landing on their asses.

Just because folks in NJ the state I live in, would tolerate electing a GOP Governor at times as a balance to our Democratic controlled legislature, doesn't mean they would elect a Republican to the US Senate. Nor the White House. It's something that national Repubs can't seem to understand. Just let them keep believing that pipe dream.

(12-27-11): Anna Little who was a mayor from a small town in the Shore Region has put her hat in the ring. From what I heard she a Christine O'Donnell wanna be. State Sen. Joe Kyrillos is "exloring", not only for 2012 but 2014 when Frank Lautenberg will very likely announce he's retiring.

New Mexico
Open Seat: (D) Jeff Bingaman retiring
Democrat: Rep. Martin Heinrich, State Auditor Hector Balderas
Republican: Former Rep. Heather Wilson, Lt. Governor John Sanchez
Rating: Leans Democratic Hold

Background: (10-10-11) Two very competitive primaries on both sides, which will lead to a competitive general. Heinrich & Balderas are the candidates on the Demoractic side. Both of them have very bright futures, and are quite handsome individuals. Obviously and rightly so the DSCC are not going to take sides in this race. Giving that you have a Hispanic candidate, in a Hispanic heavy state. Heather Wilson tried to run for Pete Domenici's open seat when he retired in '08, but lost to a more conservative challenger. Expect the same thing to happen to her again. She's not a favorite for the likes of the Tea Party Express, Club For Growth & Redstate crowd. Most likely they're going to roll with Lt. Gov. Sanchez. The thing is the Dems have two good recruits, so who ever wins the primary will have an advantage for the general due to the fact that New Mexico leans blue.

North Dakota
Open Seat: (D) Kent Conrad retiring
Democrat: Former Atty. General Heidi Heitkamp
Republican: Rep. Rick Berg
Rating: Leans Republican Gain

Background: (11-29-11) Well just like when we thought that this seat was lost, it looks like the former Attorney General from North Dakota has given us hope in retaining this seat. I'm kind of surprise, and not surprise. Given that she's been out of politics for a decade so it's surprising people still know who she is. Yet North Dakota is a small state with a population of 600,000+. That's about the same population of Baltimore.

We all know President Obama doesn't have a snowballs chance in North Dakota. Given that fact, how many state you know have drastically split their tickets in Presidential election? So many that you can't even count. Doesn't matter if the state voted for the winner, or the loser. It will be very interesting how this race further shapes up. The good thing for Heitkamp is that she has not been in Washington, and doesn't has a record. Most folks had this as a safe/absolute takeover. After Heitkamp entrance it went from Likely takeover. I'm going to give this the benefit of the doubt, and rate this a lean takeover.

Ohio
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown
Challenger: State Treasurer Josh Mandel? Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor?
Rating: Leans Democratic Hold

Background: (10-10-11) In '06 Brown pick the perfect time to run for the senate when took on Mike DeWine. Who was the second most endangered incumbent senator that year, right behind Rick Santorum. also back in '06 then term limit incumbent Bob Taft was very unpopular, which resulted in Ted Strickland elected as Governor. Sherrod Brown toughest race to date was back in '94  with Newt Gingrich Republican Revolution. Brown eked out a 49-46 victory. Ever since then he has won pretty comfortably, but '12 he gonna have to fight. Brown has alot going for him, recents poll shows him running double digits among his likeliest opponents right now. He preaches that oh so good economic populism that play well in Ohio. Expect Brown to have the inside track in this race. As of now this is as a lean hold.

Pennsylvania
Incumbent: Democrtic Sen. Bob Casey, Jr.
Challenger: Fmr. US House candidate Tim Burns, Businessman Steve Welch
Rating: Likely Democratic Hold

Background: (10-10-11) The Casey name is like gold in the Keystone State. It's like what the Kennedy's are to Massachusetts, the Carnahan's in Missouri, Coumo's to New York, or the Landrieu's to Louisiana. Alot Democrats don't like his position on abortion, but beside that he's a moderate progressive, overall he's a good team player for senate Dems. He doesn't go haywire, or is a thorn in the side. Republicans just cannot find a top tier in this race, so I don't want to get confident, and put this as a solid hold. So instead I'm going to rate this as likely Democratic hold.

(10-24-11): Apparently the GOP in Pennsylvania can't find a good candidate to take on Bob Casey. These individuals who've declared themselves in the race are just waiting for an ass whooping. Tim Burns who lost twice two now Rep. Mark Critz in '10 one in a special election, and then in the general. Another candidate is a business man name Steve Welch. One candidate that I'm surprise that the GOP haven't been able to recruit is Fmr. Governor & the first Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge. They tried to in '10, but it didn't work. He's the only challenger to Bob Casey that could make this race competitive.

Virginia
Open Seat: (D) Jim Webb retiring
Democrat: Former Gov. & DNC Chair Tim Kaine
Republican: Former Sen. George Allen
Rating: Toss-Up/Democratic Edge

Background: (10-10-11) Just incase I need to refresh your memory Macaca should have been the end of his political career. Allen was a likely Republican front runner for the GOP presidential nominee for '08. He went on to lose to Webb. Apparently he has a good shot to win his old job back. Tim Kaine who Democrats had bust their ass to get him in this race, and finally did is very popular in Virginia, and was recently the former Governor. This is going to come the to two things.

1. Who's on the GOP presidential ticket. 2. The tea party effect. First if Allen does win the GOP nod he needs to wish for the Republicans to have somebody on the ticket that can attract voters in rural VA. If you look at my review for Wisconsin, no GOP establishment candidate has the nominee too him or herself. Remember the 2012 election does not begin until the Iowa caucus. So right now establishment GOP candidates are in a good spot, because people are not paying that much attention to their senate races.

So Allen can breathe easy for right now. Better believe once the campaign season begins alot of Tea Party candidates will generate traction, and take down establishment candidates. You already know of their names of those who cost their party senate seats last year, and those who won but GOP had to spend a few more bucks then they would have like. If Allen loses in the primaries then this is an absolute hold for the Dems, if he does survive, and depending on how he does, then race is a toss-up.

(11-14-11): If there's anything thing that the state elections in Virignia taught us last week, specifically the state senate races, is that the race between Tim Kaine & George Allen will be the most watched and tightest race in the country. This race may go to the wee hours of the early morning. It's a high possibility that the race will be called late night. Both men have been neck-and-neck in the polls. Just to point out the first ever polled conducted between Kaine & Allen back in November of last year, showed Kaine leading Allen 50-44.

Mind you this poll was release before Jim Webb decided not to run in February of this year. Kaine jumped in the race in April. Ever since then we all knew that the race was going to become tight as the months went on. As tight as polling is Kaine has lead in most of them anywhere between 1-4 points, only one poll showed Allen leading, and about two polls showed them tied. Anyway you look at it this race is going to be very very close. Obviously who ever wins Virginia is going to have a major factor who wins this race. I have a hunch that something is telling me Kaine is going to pull it out.

(12-27-11): Obama thus far is holding his weight in VA. Also same for Tim Kaine with a new PPP poll showing him with a 47-42 lead over Allen. I just got a feeling Tim Kaine always had the edge in this tight race. Dems will still have in fight to hold this seat, but I believe they're able hold this seat.

Wisconsin
Open Seat: (D) Herb Kohl retiring
Democrat: Rep. Tammy Baldwin
Republican: Former Gov. Tommy Thompson, Fmr Rep. Mark Neumann, Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald
Prediction: Leans Democratic Hold

Background: (10-10-11) Obviously with the political climate that been going on in Wisconsin this is going to be one of the closet watch senate races on election night. Democrats just like all over the country got bulldozed in 2010, and in a result we lost control of alot of legislatures in the senate and house. In Wisconsin Democrats lost the Governors Mansion, State Senate, and House. Walker and the GOP began their anti-union work, but not without backlash and becoming within one seat away in losing the state senate in the recall elections in July.

Tammy Baldwin is a prime recruit for the Dems. A great progressive fighter, and shall she win not only would she become the first female senator from the state of Wisconsin, but also the first ever LGBT senator elected to the United States Senate. This race is going to depend on who is the GOP nominee. Fmr. Gov. Tommy Thompson is the frontrunner, but he does not have the nominee to himself. Honestly his best shot was to run against Russ Feingold, and he passed. As a result Feingold lost to Ron Johnson. As we saw in '10, Republicans cannot control their primaries (i.e. Nevada, Colorado, and Delaware).

I believe his time has past, and it's been a long time since he's been Governor. If Thompson does not win the nominee then the Dems have a very substantial advantage in this race. If Thompson does win, then it's going to be more competitive, but Tommy is going to be very bruised up. The fact that he has two futher right opponets, and Club for Growth against him. Also doesn't help that WI primaries are in September, he may too bruised to take on Baldwin. Baldwin does benefit that Wisconsin is a lean blue state. It'll also help if Scott Walker is on the ballot for re-call. Right now I got this as slight edge for the Democrat assuming that Thompson doesn't survive.

(10-24-11): I don't know if it can get any better for Tammy Baldwin. She pretty much has the Democratic field to herself, giving her an enough time to define & introduce herself to Wisconsin voters. While on the the Republican side it looks like it will be an absolute bloodbath. Former Sen. Russ Feingold lend his endorsement to Baldwin while other Dems are being smart & not challenging her. Her follow WI colleague in the US House Ron Kind making sure she has an easy time to the general & holding that seat. Plus lets hope that the WI Dems can get a successful recall of Scott Walker aswell his Lt. Rebecca Kleefisch. If that happens that'll give a huge boost to Baldwin.

(12-27-11): It's going to be a UFC style fight in the Republican primary. Giving the political climate which is anti-Scum, excuse I mean anti-Republican, because of Walker running rough shot thinking he could do what he pleased is about to suffer political consequences of a very anticipated recall. If Tammy Baldwin, and I expect her to do this preach income inequality like Warren in MA, also well as Obama has been doing since this fall, I believe she'll hold this seat for the Dems. I think that's going to be and should be the nat'l message for the Dems next fall.

Continue Reading

Thu Dec 08, 2011 at 11:05 AM PST

Year of the Woman & Beyond

by BKGyptian89

Just like 1992, 2012 election cycle is being dubbed "Year of the Woman". With high recruited female candidates for the senate next year such as Elizabeth Warren, Shelly Berkley, Tammy Baldwin are the type of fresh blood we need in the senate. So I title title this "The Year of the Woman & Beyond". Not just analyzing the '12 race with top tier female challenger, but foreseeing the future a bit and matching up incumbents in '14 & '16 with top tier female challengers. The ones in '14 & 16 are all hypotheticals! We don't even know who the candidates will be. Some we can see as potential prospects/recruits. We can't predict the future, but it doesn't hurt to have some fun.

So let's get started with the ones in '12

'12 Cycle

Hawaii: Mazie Hirono (D-Honolulu) v. Linda Lingle (R-Maui)
Photobucket

This most likely will be the only all female match up in the 2012 election. Mazie Hirono was the obvious choice for Democrats when Daniel Akaka announce his retirement earlier this year. Also it's glad to know that Sen. Patty Murray, the chair of the DSCC is throwing her full backing behind her. Let's hope that Ed Case gets the picture (I doubt he will). The Republicans got the person they wanted former Gov. Linda Lingle. Even though she looks formidable I don't think she will win with Hawaii's native son on top of the ticket. Most likely Hirono will be the next senator, and first female elected from Hawaii.

Massachusetts: Elizabeth Warren (D-Cambridge) v. Scott Brown (R-Wrentham)
Photobucket

This most likely is going to the top 5 most watched race this year in the senate. Brown's upset victory nearly two years ago in January of 2010, is like the classic childhood story of the tortoise & the hare. Brown wasn't supposed to have a snowball's chance in hell. If Coakley just campaigned like she really wanted to be a senator she would have won. We all know the gaffes she made in horror in hence cost the Dems a safe seat. Albeit I think Martha Coakley has learned from this experience, and I believe she does has a future. She's apart of the handful of hard hitting AG's such as Schneiderman in New York, Biden in Delaware, and Cortez-Masto in Nevada, that are taking on the big banks in the foreclosure crises. Even though John Kerry is running for re-election in '14, Hillary Clinton has stated that she wants to do one term at the State Dept. Kerry would be a favorite, and maybe Coakley would be appointed. She does have name rec, and has been re-elected as AG. All that being said Elizabeth is the exact canidate who WILL! win this seat back and bring some must needed change in that institution we called the United States Senate. She's the only candidate who is capable to win this seat back, and put it in the blue collum.

Nevada: Shelly Berkley (D-Las Vegas) v. Dean Heller (R-Reno)
Photobucket

Another prime race is going to be out in the Desert between Brekley and Heller. The West is going to be a big role for Obama's re-election. At first I thought that Berkley wasn't the best choice for Dems to recruit. I actually believed the Attorney General of Nevada Catherine Cortez-Masto was a better candidate. Berkley has proven me wrong, and she can very well defeat Heller next fall. Just like in '08 I believe Obama will win the silver state while carrying Berkley cross the finish line with him.

Wisconsin: Tammy Baldwin (D-Madison) v. Mark Neumann (R-Nashotah)
Photobucket

In my senate race previews some folks think I'm a little too optimistic, or bullish on Wisconsin. I don't see Thompson being a 71 year old first term junior senator from the Dairyland. Go to the wiki page on this race, Thompson is going to have a very tough time getting out of the primary. Even if you look at the general polling between Baldwin and him, Baldwin is right up in his face. I expect Neumann who is very wealthy to just blitz Thompson and Fitzgerald with his money in the primary. Also you have too take in to a account the very much expected recalls of Gov. Walker. Ever since his anti-union legislation pass it's been a horrible year for the Wisconsin GOP. Wisconsin Dems are more than half way in getting the signatures to force a recall of Walker. If Walker goes down expect it to have major implications in this race, and just like I said in my review for Wisconsin expect the GOP candidates to run away from Walker like he has the plague. Obama is so far polling strong in Wisconsin, and it will have a role in this race. Dems will have to fight to keep Herb Kohl seat blue, and I believe Baldwin will be able to hold this seat for the Dems.

'14 Cycle

Michigan: Grethchen Whitmer (D-Lansing) v. Mike Rogers (R-Howell)
Photobucket

Carl Levin could very well retire in 2014. I kind of had to brainstorm possible GOP candidates for this seat. Their strongest choices are from the House of Representatives. Three of them are chairman of very important comitees. Rogers is the Chairman of the Intelligence Com. Dave Camp is the is the Ways & Means Chair, and Upton is the Chair on Energy/Commerce. Out of those three I thought Rogers would be the better pick for the GOP. On the Dem side I chose the Senate Minority leader in the state senate Gretchen Whitmer. If Levin does retire which is a high possibility, these two could very well be the possible match up for that seat. Whitmer is term limited in '14, it's very possible she gives it a go. Both Whitmer & Rogers beyond their constituents are not well known, so they have low name rec to start out with. Once the election rolls near they will be very well known. Another possibility if it's not Whitmer is Rep. Gary Peters, but that's only if he can survive redistricting. It will be nice though to have a female alongside Debbie Stabenow representing Michigan in the US Senate.

New Jersey: Barbara Buono (D-Metuchen) v. Tom Kean Jr (R-Westfield)
Photobucket

In this diary I wrote about these two being the very possible nominees in replacing Frank Luatenberg who will very likely retire after the '12 election cycle is over. Barbara Buono is the highest ranking female in New Jersey for the Democrats. She the out going Senate Majority leader, who some have speculate she could run for Governor. If it looks like Christie might have a somewhat easy re-election she could definitely look to Washington instead. Plus the Democrat establishment in NJ are not really fond of her, so if she leaves Trenton it will be no problem for them, as long that she's out of their hair. Trenton is their bread & butter. Lord knows New Jersey needs a female in it's congressional delegation, and she will be a good choice. Andrews rubbed alot of people the wrong way for what he did in '08 so he could be a choice, but Menendez is a boss in NJ politics, and is the reason why the Dems have full control of the Senate & House. He could definitely give Buono the green light to make a senate run spurning Andrews. Kean would be the strongest choice for the GOP. Son of the popular Governor from the 80's Kean Sr. he ran in '06 against Menendez, who towards the end got mopped up by the junior senator.

Texas: Wendy Davis (D-Fort Worth) v. John Cornyn (R-Austin)
Photobucket

We all know that Democrats in Texas will find there footing again. Texas will most likely be competitive, if not in this upcoming cycle  it can flip in '16 since Jimmy Carter in '76. If there's one candidate that can take us to the promise land in Texas is state Sen. Wendy Davis from Tarrant County. It's no wonder why Republicans tried to end her career prematurely, as they see her as a political threat as a potential state wide candidate. Good thing the Texas GOP got greedy in redistricting, where the courts had to step in, and draw a much fairer map. She still has a competitive district, but one she could win in. If shes able hold on to her state senate seat, she could most likely could take on "Big John" Cornyn. What she did at the end of the session in the Texas legislature, you'll see she has a lot of potential.

'16 Cycle

Florida: Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fort Lauderdale) v. Marco Rubio (R-Miami)
Photobucket

This could very well be a likely showdown in Florida in 2016. Two very well known politicians from South Florida. Debbie Wasserman Schultz from Broward County, and Marco Rubio from Dade County. Whenever there's a Cuban Republican from Dade county on a statewide ballot in Florida, they barely carry Dade county. For instance the Betty Castor & Mel Martinez race to replace Bob Graham in '04, even though Martinez is from Orange County (Orlando) he won Dade County by less than one percent. Even though Betty Castor carried her home county Hillsborough (Tampa), Martinez win in Dade as small as it was, was enough to flip that seat. The race in "10 if you added Charlie Crist votes with Kendrick Meek, he would crush in Dade, as well as won the senate seat. The reason why I bring Dade county up is that as more non-Cuban Hispanics move to Dade County, along with the Afro-Carribeans/West Indies whether they're coming overseas. Whether it's Central, South America, and the Carribean, or within the US mostly the New York City Tri-State area, the Cuban vote specifically older Cubans, will be significantly diluted. It's going to be a presidential year in '16, so Rubio won't able to count on the fortunes he enjoyed last year. I believe DWS will run for this seat when it's up, and will be a serious threat to Rubio. As much as national GOP drool at the thought of him, his polls numbers suggest he doesn't walk on water. FFT for those who don't think Florida hasn't elected a Jewish-American senator, Richard Stone (1975-1980) served for one term. so if DWS hopefully runs, and win she won't be the first Jew or Women to rep. Florida in the Senate.

Illinois: Lisa Madigan (D-Chicago) v. Mark Kirk (R-Highland Park)
Photobucket

Illinois Democrats were very disappointed back in '09 when popular AG Lisa Madigan decided not to run along with Jan Schakowsky. The reason why Schakowsky didn't run was because of her husband business dealings that would have been brought up in the race. The Blagojavich scandal was really a burden on Democrats only because Alexi Giannoulious also had his own personal baggage, with his dad's family bank given out loans to well known Chicago mobsters, and the bank eventually close down. Dispite that Kirk also had his own baggage with embellishing his military record. I can't tell you how disappointed I was on election night last year, when it look like we were going to hold on to Illinois & Pennslyvania w/ Sestak. Even though IL Dems had scandals last year they held on to the state legislature, and despite Giannoulious baggage, Kirk was able to sneak through, which tells you Illinois is still the bluest state in the Midwest. Giannoulious is still young and has a bright future, but it was a damn shame he couldn't hang on. Hopefully Madigan will have a change of heart, and run for a seat that she's able to win in a Presidential year. Like Rubio, Kirk can't count on the same fortune he had in '10, most likely he will be the most vulnerable Republican up for reelection that year. If not, Madigan who would probably make for a run Gov. in '14, then can you say Michele Obama? Who had political ambitions before getting marry to Pres. Barack Obama. She will crush Kirk like you can't believe that he will probably call it a one and done.

Kentucky: Alison Lundergan Grimes (D-Lexington) v. Rand Paul (R-Bowling Green)
Photobucket

Allison Lundergan Grimes a seen as a bright star for the Democrats in Kentucky, and the have reasons to do so. She going to be the incoming Secretary of State in Kentucky. She ran up the score when got elected as SoS, and most likely will be reelecting in four years. Kentucky Democrats like Missouri focus their time on statewide races, and it pays dividends. Having a strong bench gives opportunities to win in statewide races whether for Governor or Senate. She's very likable, obviously very gorgeous, and has a great way in getting out message when she indulges with people. I think she will be a great opponent against Rand Paul.  

North Carolina: Janet Cowell (D-Raleigh) v. Richard Burr (R-Winston-Salem)
Photobucket

2010 in general Republicans were lucky. GOP'ers like Burr who was seen as vulnable was save because of the political climate last year. Seat that were GOP held that were seen as likely to flip Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania (pre-Specter switch) did not. Seats that were expected to be safe Dem hold Illinois, Wisconsin, Massachusetts (pre-Coakley debacle) were all of a sudden competitive. Burr who once thought as vulnarable was able to cruise to re-election. Gaffes he had like the ATM call to his wife didn't gain any traction. Here's the thing alot of those senators like Burr who I believe were lucky in '10 Ron Johnson, Kirk, Rubio, Blunt, Toomey won't be so in '16, and will surely have very though opponents. One though rival for Burr could be the state treasurer for North Carolina Janet Cowell. I'm not really familiar with her only in the since that she was a state senator before running for state tres. in '08. Most likely she'll win re-election, and can take on Burr which will be seen as a prime race in the '16 cycle.

Pennsylvania: Allyson Schwartz (D-Jenkintown) v. Pat Toomey (R-Zionsville)
Photobucket

Joe Sestak gave Toomey a fight last year, and he could expect another one '16. I think if Sestak went up earlier in the summer with ads instead of the begining of September he could have pull the upset of the night last year. The upcoming redistricting process will play a major role in who will be the Democratic nominee to take on Toomey in '16. Pennsylvania Republicans learned their lesson from 10 years ago when they tried to screw over Rep. Tim Holden in redistricting. That blew up right in there face, Holden was able to beat GOP Rep. George Gekas in the district that was drawn more favorably for the Republican. PA GOP'ers see Rep. Allyson Schwartz from suburban Philly as a threat for a state wide office, but trying to give her the shaft in SEPA you also endanger GOP'ers like Pat Mehan or Mike Fitzpatrick, so instead they're backing off which is good for us. They have good reason to be scared, cause she's the type of candidate who could beat Pat Toomey. They're setting there sights in Western PA with Critz & Altmire trying to draw them together. Very likely they will shoot themselves in the face again because Critz & Altimire are the type of Dems that could win in those Reagan Democrats district out there in Western PA. Instead of challenging Critz, Altmire can definitely win a nearby district held by a Republican. Lets hope those two stay in the house. There Blue Dogs who are just in name only, and there are Blue Dogs who are just scum. The only candidates from PA who could take on Toomey from PA delegation is Allyson Schwartz, if not her Mike Doyle from Pittsburgh. I think Allyson Schwartz as well as Joe Sestak will have bright futures. It will be great see Schwartz running for Senate, and Sestak for Governor. Pennsylvania has never elected a woman senator so let's hope Schwartz is the first. Another woman to look out for is Kathleen Kane from Scranton, who is running against former Rep. Pat Murphy in the Dem primary for AG. If she win the primary as well as the general, she could be a good option.

Continue Reading

Tue Nov 29, 2011 at 05:20 PM PST

'12 Senate Races (Nov-29-11)

by BKGyptian89

Previous updates: Florida, Nevada, Utah, Virginia

Note Arizona & North Dakota have officially made the list! and updates are on Maine, Montana & Nebraska

Marquee Races & Ones To Keep An Eye On

Arizona
Open Seat: (R) Jon Kyl retiring
Democrat: Former surgeon Gen. Richard Carmona
Republican: Rep. Jeff Flake
Rating: Leans Republican Hold

Background: (11-29-11) People were telling me that I should write about the Arizona race, and I'm finally am. First understand the reason I wasn't to quick to write about was I wanted to wait and see the first pollings, and how the race was developing. I was bummed out that as soon the seat became open Homeland Secretaty & Former Gov. Janet Napolitano right away dismiss herself out of the running. If the assassination attempt of Gabby Giffords never happened, sources close to her inner circle said she was going to run, anticipating a Kyl retirement. If that never happened, polls showed the GOP will have a fight on it's hands to hold this seat if Giffords decided to run. Obama looks like he is going to make a push in Arizona, and I believe the President can be formidable in the Grand Canyon State.

Former Surgeon Gen. Richard Carmona looks to be a great candidate. The fact he is just trailing Flake with little to no name recognition is quite amazing. It also show that Arizona is trending purple. The state is pretty much even. A third Republican, a third Democrat, and the other third independent. I would definitely love team blue to pick up Sen. "Not intended to be a factual statement" seat. Alot of the ratings giants such as Sabato, and Real Clear have now move this Lean Republican, while the other have it as likely. I have to go with the latter and rate this Lean GOP hold for rite now.

Connecticut
Open Seat: (ID) Joe Lieberman retiring
Democrat: Rep. Chris Murphy, Former Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz
Republican: Former WWE Executive Linda McMahon, Former Rep. Chris Shays
Rating: Solid Democratic Hold

Background: (10-10-11) Two top tier recruits on the Democratic side, Chris Murphy & Susan Bysiewicz. On the Republican side you have Former WWE Executive Linda McMahon who got taken to the cleaners by now Sen. Blumenthal. Despite his on occasion distorting his military service he was able to win comfortably by a 55-43 margin. Carrying every county in the state except for the Northwest corner, Litchfield County. Chris Shays survived the blue tide of '06, but eventually the Obama tsunami caught up w/ him in '08 by losing his New York City suburban district in Southwestern Connecticut.

Bysiewicz has recently took a few hits in her numbers. Probably do to the fact of her playing musical chairs last year. Running for Governor, then instead running for Attorney General when Blumenthal was running for the open seat left by Chris Dodd's retirement, only come to find out she wasn't even qualified. Also her debacle as State Secretary by calling the very close Gubernatorial race between Dan Malloy & Tom Foley too early.

Those things, voters are most likely starting to remember & is what giving Murphy the edge in the primary & the general. Despite her pass stumble this going to be a great primary on the Blue team between two good candidates. Personally I would love to see more women senators elected, but no matter who wins the nod, Democrats shouldn't lose this seat. McMahon is going squash her opponents in the primary w/ her money only to blow it away in the general. Either way it's either going to be Senator-elect Murphy, or Bysiewicz, & so long to Joe Lieberman.

Florida
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson
Challenger: Rep. Connie Mack IV, Former. Sen. George LeMieux, Former House Maj. Leader Adam Hasner, Ret. Army Colonel & University Professor Mike McCalister
Rating: Leans Democratic Hold

Background: (10-10-11) I don't know what it is with Bill Nelson. Politicians all over DC would give a leg & arm to be in his position. Either he's a very good politician, or he's been extremely fortunate. I think both. Since being elected to the senate in 2000, Nelson has had the luxery of facing bad challengers. In '00 he faced Bill McCollum, which was a nasty campaign & his toughest to date. Nelson still won pretty comfortably by a 51-46 margin, that's pretty good in a state like Florida. Further proof that McCollum is a bad candidate is him losing to now Gov. Rick Scott in the Gubernatorial primary, Scott went on to barely beat CFO (State Treasurer) Alex Sink by the skin of his teeth.

'06 he had an even worst challenger in Fmr. Rep. Katherine Harris, who he just blew out the water! Nelson beat her in places that are Republican friendly. Places such as Pensacola, Panama City, Jacksonville, & Sarasota. I knew when Rick Scott got elected as Governor, Charlie Crist was politically shunned from Tallahassee & Washington GOP'ers, & Jeb Bush ruled out running for the senate, that Nelson had a much clearer path to a third term. Him & Democrats are going to benefit tremendously the fact that Obama is going to make a big push in Florida like almost every presidential candidate does, & that fact that the Dems have the Fair Redistricting in Florida where the GOP legislature in Tallahassee cannot gerrymander Florida's map on a federal & state level anymore.

Leaving a good recruit in the wings in 2018 shall he decide to retire. Bill is a very skilled pol & is a fairly moderate progressive. He has the edge & I think he'll win, but it's definitely going to be a close race. If he get's LeMieux who probably be bruised in the primary, he wins with some wiggle room to spare. If it's a far right tea party opponent like Hasner or McCalister, two individuals who support the Paul Ryan budget plan, that will play into Bill's hands in senior heavy populated Florida. Expect Bill to take them to the woodshed. As of right now this lean hold.

(11-14-11): Even though Bill Nelson was leading his Republican challengers by double-digits in the high 40's we all knew that wasn't going to sustained for that long as the election got close. Once the Republican candidate was know the race was going to tightened up. Guess what? The future is now for Bill Nelson. After having a change a heart Cornelius Harvey McGillicuddy IV, other wise known as Connie Mack has decided to jump in, and has made it a race. Still Mack has alot to prove. Welcome to to the big leagues (no pun intended). He giving up a safe house seat for a statewide election, against a tough incumbent who is not going to be easy to beat. It's going to be a very bloody GOP primary, benefiting Nelson. Like I said national GOP can't control their primaries. Just because he has a popular last name don't think for one moment his primary opponent won't drop the gloves.

There hasn't been a Mack on a statewide ballot in Florida in more the 15 years. '94 to be exact (his daddy was a former senator). There also was an early poll release in February as a hypothetical match up before Mack originally decided not to run, showing Nelson leading him 45-40. I don't think Bill Nelson is stupid where he taught there wasn't going to be a major shake-up in the race to challenge him, and he was going to cruise to reelection. Cause it certainly look like it. The way he's been raising money, going to have close to 15-20 mil. He hasn't taking it likely. Given Mack announcement I'm still rating this lean Dem but a slight lean hold.

For some miraculous if Mack turns out not to be the deal the GOP hopes him to be, and loses the primary, then this Nelson gets reelected. The good thing for Nelson is that you already know huge push Obama is going to make in Florida. With Obama on top of the ticket, if Obama wins Florida (which I believe he will), then Nelson also wins. I think Nelson will outperform Obama in Florida, by winning pick up more counties such as ones in the Tallahassee area like Madison, and Hamilton. Bill can definitely win Duval, if he does then it's a wrap. Even if the election was today, against any of the GOP nominee I believe Nelson will still win.

Hawaii
Open Seat: (D) Daniel Akaka retiring
Democrat: Rep. Mazie Hirono , Former Rep. Ed Case
Republican: Former Gov. Linda Lingle
Rating: Likely Democratic Hold

Background: (10-10-11) With Senator Akaka retiring & Hawaii's favorite son on top of the ticket, it's very unlikely the Republicans flip this seat. The candidates on the Democratic side are Rep. Mazie Hirono & worthless asshole Ed Case. We all know what kind of gutter politics Case is going to run in order to try to win the primary that he won't win. We all know the muck he ran up in the that special election for Hawaii's 1st congressional district last year. Knowing that he had no path to being elected, instead of doing the honorable thing by stepping aside for the other Dem Colleen Hanabusa to win, he stayed in race thus splitting the vote. Resulting in Charles Djou the Republican being elected. Granted Hanabusa did win in November, but it just goes to show how much of a dick Case is.

My thought is that once campaigning season begins Hirono is going run rough shot, & pull away to clinch the Democratic nod. She'll be the first women senator from Hawaii, as well the first ever Asian-American women in the United States senate.

(10-18-11): So it's official former Gov. Linda Lingle has official thrown her hat for the open seat in Hawaii. Some so call political pundit now has rated this as a "Toss-up" Pleeeeaasse (rolling my eyes).

(10-24-11): Maybe it wasn't wise to overlook Linda Lingle jumping into this race, & dismissing her as a joke because she has made this a race. So much so that I'm changing the rating to a strong to likely hold. At the same time it's no reason to get nervous. 1. It's a big hole in Ed Case chances of being the nominee, & plus most of the state party is behind Hirono. 2. Obama is on top of the ticket. I think Lingle has hit her ceiling & can't get further beyond that mark. I tell you one thing tough, whoever is the Chair of the Democratic Party in Hawaii should vigorously pull all the establishment & every elected official to rally behind Hirono & make her the presumptive nominee.

Indiana*
Incumbent: Republican Sen. Richard Lugar
Challenger(s): Democratic Rep. Joe Donnelly & Republican State Secretary Richard Mourdock
Rating: Leans Republican Hold

Background: (10-10-11) Lugar is in the same boat as Snowe, he's a top target for the far right. His challenger in the primaries is State Tres. Richard Mourdock who is running far to Lugar's right. I think Obama was very lucky to win Indiana in '08. He edged McCain by carrying Indianapolis, but by carrying the Chicago burbs in Northwest Indiana, & the Louisville burbs in Southern Indiana. Indiana is least likely to go blue this time around, but there's a chance that if Lugar goes down that Donnelly can win. So right now to play this safe I'm rating this as lean red.

Maine*
Incumbent: Republican Sen. Olympia Snowe (As of right now)
Challenger: Former Gov. John Baldacci? House Min. Leader Emily Cain? Former Gubernatorial Candidate & Businesswomen Rosa Scarcelli?
Rating: Leans Republican hold

Background: (10-10-11) This has casualty of Tea Party written all over it. Snowe probably knew when Maine elected a tea party governor in 2010 in Paul LePage, she was in troble. Credit given he barely won in a four person race by two points. Still Maine Republicans are in a mood for a more conservative Republican candidate. There alot of If's, What, & Who. Lets start with Who? The Dems need to recruit a top tier challenger.

John Baldacci is a great pick up. Now with the If, cause if Snowe is taken down by a more conservative challenger, the Democrats need to have a nominee that could guarantee one of a few pick ups they'll have that night. That make up for likely loses in North Dakota & Nebraska. Now What? Snowe could take the easy way out & just decide to retire, but she already running for re-election. I don't think she'll become a Democrat, do a Crist & turn Independent, or do write-in like Lisa Murkowski if she lose her primary. The Republicans won't have that, they're hell bent on taking the senate on they don't want nothing slowing them down. She might just take a que from Michael Bennet & Arlen Specter (eat your humble pie & accept you loss). I know Markos has wrote alot about Olympia Snowe & the dilemma facing her. As of right now this is a lean hold. Stay tune folks, because this is going to be one to watch!

(11-29-11): Yeah it's looks like she's above water now, but did you expect a little known person known to take down Mike Castle last year. The answer is no. At first it look like she was in heavy danger. She very well could be so don't take these recent polls for granted. As far as the former Governor making a run, that's not going to happen. I don't get Mainers, I really don't. It's a solidly blue state on a presidential level, but vote for two frauds who like to call themselves "Moderate Republicans". I really hope Snowe gets taken down.

 
Massachusetts
Incumbent: Republican Sen. Scott Brown
Challenger: Former Obama Adviser & Consumer Financial Protection advocate Elizabeth Warren
Rating: Toss-Up/Slight Democratic Edge

Backgroud: (10-10-11) This race should'nt even be marque, or competitive. If Martha Coakley just shook hands outside of Fenway Park, and campaigned like she really wanted to be a senator from Massachusetts, then we wouldn't have a Republican sitting in Teddy Kennedy seat. Maybe the Brown win was a blessing disguise, because Liz Warren is a far more better candidate then Coakley. She squashes the notion that Sen. Centerfold is untouchable. She already has Brown shitting in his pants. Also the people of Massachusetts like what they here from her so far. Massachusetts is pretty likely to go blue in '12, but I don't Brown will be able to convince the people to split their tickets. Until this race progresses further I'm going to rate this as a toss up.

(10-18-11): Just barely a month since she launched her senate campaign & so far Liz Warren has raked in a little over 3 mil. Making it very likely for Brown to be burning thru his 10 mil like you can't believe. Plus the report of Brown plagiarising from former Sen. Liddy Dole, make it safe to say it's been a crap month for Sen. Centerfold.

Michigan
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow
Challenger: Former Rep. Pete Hoekstra
Rating: Likely Democratic Hold

Background: (10-10-11) After the red tide of '10 DC pundits believed Debbie Stabenow would be vulnerable. Probably because of Romney's Michigan roots, (assuming he wins the GOP presidential nod). The fact that he was born in Detroit & his father was Governor in the 60's. I beg to differ. 1. That was so long ago that people don't even remember those day when his pops was Govnah. 2. Mitt's "Let Detroit go Bankrupt" comment isn't going to play well in Michigan. 3. Expect Obama to tout what he did to save the auto industry. An industry not just vital to the Motor City, but the entire state of Michigan. Hoekstra is a crazy fuck. He Tried to run hard right for the GOP primary for Governor of Michigan last year. Even though I believe she's going to win this race, expect her to run like she's 10 points down. Got this as a likely hold.

Missouri
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill
Challenger: Former State Treasurer Sarah Steelman, Rep. Todd Aiken
Rating: Toss-Up

Background: (10-10-11) I think we all knew back when Claire beat then-Sen. Jim Talent by a 50-47 margin,who back in '02 barely beat Jean Carnahan, chances were she's going to have to fight for re-election given the swingish nature of Missourah. McCaskill is a smart & savvy politician. I know she not perfect & she goes off the reservation a bit, but by no means is she a Ben Nelson, or Evan Bayh. Guys who intentionally try to screw their own party at every turn they get. She preaches economic populism like her colleague Sherrod Brown from Ohio, & that plays well especially in the Midwest. Depending on who the challenger is, it's going to have and impact on the race. Both candidates are going to give her a run for money.

Obviously this is a prime seat that the GOP are eyeing & believe they could pick it up. If she has Todd "bat shit crazy" Aiken, she has a better chance of holding on. If it's Steelman she is gonna have to work for it either way. It also helps that Gov. Nixon is going to be on the ballot with her. She need to hope that Democrats have a strong ticket in Missouri along w/ her & Nixon. So far that seem going in the right direction w/ Fmr. State Auditor & Chairwomen of the Missouri Democratic Party, Susan Montee throwing her hat in the ring for Lt. Gov. Even though I think she has the edge as of right now this is just a pure tossup, to close to call.

(10-24-11): Missouri Republicans are becoming quite nervous, & are starting to pull the alarm. They're having a rough time finding credible candidates for next year elections. Luckily Dems have top tier recruits for '12. Gov. Nixon is most likely a shoe in for reelection. State Party Chair & Fmr. State Auditor Susan Montee is running for Lt. Gov. Chris Koster who switch parties in '07 is running for Attorney General again.

Unfortunately State Secretary Robin Carnahan is retiring instead of seeking a likely shoe in for reelection, State Rep. Jason Kander from KC is looking replace her. We all know about Lt Gov. Kinder no need to go there. The two GOP candidates vying to take on McCaskill, Sarah Steelman & Todd Aiken are having awful, matter of fact horrific fund raising numbers. That's probably making McCaskill grinning a bit, but she still polling slightly ahead in polls within the margin of error. A little two close for comfort, but the bright side for Democrat are Republicans are having such crap candidates that even though Obama probably wont win Mizzou, Dems would do better down ballot in the other races.

Montana
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Jon Tester
Challenger: Republican Rep. Denny Rehberg
Rating: Toss-Up

Background: (10-10-11) Tester barely won in '06 what was a good year for Democrats, against a very vulnerable incumbent Sen. Conrad Burns in a 49-48 nail biter. Tester also voted against the DREAM Act showing that he only cares about getting re-elected. He has the strongest challenge in Montana only member in the House of Representatives Danny Rehberg. Rehberg was smart not to vote for the Paul Ryan plan, knowing that Tester was going to beat him over the head w/ it. This race is most likely going to be a toss-up till election day

(11-29-11): You have to wonder what if it was Governor Brian Schweitzer running instead of Tester who had just do a one and done. Even tho I believe Tester has a decent shot in holding for re-elected. Those who think that Schweitzer should wait for '14 for the other Montana seat, you can forget about it cause Baucus is running for re-election.

Nebraska
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Ben Nelson
Challenger: Atty. Gen. Jon Bruning, State Treasurer Don Stenberg, State Sen. Deb
Fischer
Rating: Leans Republican Gain

Background: (10-10-11) Nelson is the most endangered Democratic incumbent up for re-election. Beltway insider thought that he was vulnarable for in '06 cycle to the possible by then Governor Mike Johanns challenge. Right after Bush was re-elected in '04 he tapped Johanns to be his Ag. Secretary. Nebraska GOP could'nt find a good candidate cause their top choices passed. But now Nelson will not be so lucky. Polls shows him losing to Bruning & Stenburg. His best hope is to have a tea party nutjob, but even still Nebraska is a pretty red state & I don't see people spitting the tickets at the ballot booth unless the GOP nominee is really, & I mean really crazy as fuck.

Bruning has loss some steam resulting in Ben Nelson closing the gap. If there's any Democrat I would love to see lose in '12 it's Ben Nelson. He was probably one of those "anonymous Democratic senators" who criticized Obama's tone as of lately towards the GOP as "not being productive" (if anyone could find that artice that would be great!). This is a leans republican gain, not putting this as likely yet.

(11-29-11): There been talks about Ben starting to have a change of heart and not run for another term after all. Even tho he's raising money and running commercials (actually it's the DSCC). Don't be surprise if pulls an Evan Byah by doing a last minute ditch. Either way I don't care. It's one thing to be a conservative Democrat, but it's totally another thing in being an asshole.

Nevada
Incumbent: Republican Sen. Dean Heller
Challenger: Democratic Rep. Shelly Berkley
Rating: Toss-up/Leans Democratic Gain

Background: (10-10-11) This is one of the few seats that the Dems can pick up in a map that's let's favorable to them, where they don't have luxury of playing offense, and have to defend 23 seats. With the John Ensign marital affair scandal that came too surface in 2009, he at first still was going too run for reelection. Then he decided not to run because he was going to get crush either in the primary or the general. Due to pressure to retire from the GOP senate leadership, he made way for then-Rep. Dean Heller & decided not to seek re-election. Facing the prospect that he was going to face ethic charges he resigned from the senate, & Dean Heller was appointed by Gov. Sandoval.

The challenger Rep. Shelly Berkley is a formidable opponate, but she has had to endure some bumps in the road as of lately, involving her husband's medical practice. Personally I would had preferred Atty. Gen. Catherine Cortez-Mastos. Senate age wise she's young, attractive, ambitious, but most of all she's Latina. Having a Democratic Latina senator from a state that is 1/4 Hispanic would a good cast mate for the Dems. There would had been no way that Heller would had beaten her, especially with the Democratic machine that Harry Reid has built in Nevada over the years.

But still Berkley is a good prime recruit for Team Blue, and Mastos is a prime recruit waiting in the wings, if a possible Reid retirement happens in 2016. Giving that Heller voted for the Ryan budget twice, It'll come back to bite him. The fact Reid has built a good state establishment for the Dems from the ground up, is a plus for the Berkley. I still believe the Dems have a good chance of gaining this seat.

(11-14-11): Even Dean Heller knows this is going to be a tough race. Also appointees, statically most of them don't get nominate for a full term. To me that's kind of a true, but also false stat. It really depends what state that senator is from. Shelly Berkley isn't just from Vegas, she is Vegas. Her fund raising capabilities is ridiculous. Because of her fund raising abilities she is tied with Heller. One thing to point out is that Berkley is polling with 3/4 of the Latino vote in the Silver State. That's the amount that help Harry Reid beat Sharron Angle, as well as Obama win over McCain in Nevada. If that continues then you can bet that Heller will be another statistic.

New Jersey
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez
Challenger: State Senate Min. Leader Tom Kean, Jr? Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno? State Sen. Joe Kyrillos
Rating: Likely Democratic Hold

Background: (10-10-11) I had to put this race on here 1. because I live in Jersey & 2. NJ politics is quite interesting. Menendez became senator when Corzine was elected Governor of New Jersey back in '05, & tapped then Rep. Menendez to be his successor. In '06 he faced quite a challenge from the State Minority Leader in the in the state senate Thomas Kean Jr. Son of popular Governor in the 80's Tom Kean Sr. But when it was all said & done Menendez mopped up Kean Jr. 53-43 margin.

Menendez had to leap some hurdles. Some were partisan, some were political, & some were ethical. Specifically by at the time US Attorney for New Jersey Chris Christie. There's no love lost between two. In '06 Christie tried to open & issue investigations & subpoenas against him in his politcal dealings in the Garden State, nearly derailing his campaign in a heat race with Kean Jr. Just two months before the elections. A blatantly partisan hit by Christie, which was an attempt to raise his stock within the GOP ranks in Jersey. Before he was in the Senate, his congressional house district comprises of New Jersey's two largest cities in the two largest counties. Newark in Essex County & Jersey City in Hudson County. Op-eds in the Times & Star-Ledger proclaim him as running Hudson County as a politcal machine.

Still his foes who've alleged corruption have still failed to generate a single indictment. However, Menendez looks good for another term. Menendez is a strong voice in the US Senate, in which he was a staunch voice for the DREAM Act & the Zadroga Bill. He is probably New Jersey most powerful politician. In 2001 he coordinated Jim McGreevey gubernatorial campaign, as well as state legislative races in New Jersey. Effectively ending Republican rule in Trenton & establishing a Democratic trifecta, resulting in Dems controlling the State House & Senate. So far no major canidate has step up. I doubt Kean Jr. wants another shot (probably waiting for '14) whoever he faces Menendez has the upper hand as New Jersey is likely to go blue in '12.

(10-18-11): Blah, blah, blah. It's that same old story again. That story that suggest a Republican can win a federal statewide race in Jersey. Yet Roberto is still crushing his opponents. For some reason Garden State Dems seem to lead in polls, or labeled "potentially vulnerable". Only to win there race weather it's close, or a double digit blowout. At the end they win. It's like Garden state Dems are Lucy with the football, & the Repubs are like Charlie Brown always landing on their asses.

Just because folks in NJ the state I live in, would tolerate electing a GOP Governor at times as a balance to our Democratic controlled legislature, doesn't mean they would elect a Republican to the US Senate. Nor the White House. It's something that national Repubs can't seem to understand. Just let them keep believing that pipe dream.

New Mexico
Open Seat: (D) Jeff Bingaman retiring
Democrat: Rep. Martin Heinrich, State Auditor Hector Balderas
Republican: Former Rep. Heather Wilson, Lt. Governor John Sanchez
Rating: Leans Democratic Hold

Background: (10-10-11) Two very competitive primaries on both sides, which will lead to a competitive general. Heinrich & Balderas are the candidates on the Demoractic side. Both of them have very bright futures, & are quite handsome individuals. Obviously & rightly so the DSCC are not going to take side in this race. Giving that you have a Hispanic candidate, in a Hispanic heavy state. Heather Wilson tried to run for Domenici open seat in '08, but lost to a more conservative challenger. Expect the same thing to happen to her again. She's not a favorite for the likes of the Tea Party Express, Club For Growth & Redstate crowd. Most likely they going to roll w/ Lt. Gov. Sanchez. The thing is the Dems have two good recruits, so who ever wins the primary will have an advantage for the general due to the fact that New Mexico leans blue.

North Dakota
Open Seat: (D) Kent Conrad retiring
Democrat: Former Atty. General Heidi Heitkamp
Republican: Rep. Rick Berg
Rating: Lean Republican Takeover

Background: (11-29-11) Well just like when we thought that this seat was lost, it looks like the former Attorney General from North Dakota has given us hope in retaining this seat. I'm kind of surprise, and not surprise. Given that she's been out of politics for a decade now it's surprise people know who she is. Yet North Dakota is a small state with a population of 600,000+. That's about the same population of Baltimore.

We all know President Obama doesn't have a snowballs chance in North Dakota. Given that fact, how many state you know have drastically split their tickets in Presidential election? So many that you can't even count. Doesn't matter if the state voted for the winner, or the loser. It will be very interesting how this race further shapes up. The good thing for Heitkamp is that she has not been in Washington, and doesn't has a record. Most folks had this as a safe/absolute takeover. After Heitkamp entrance it went from Likely takeover. I'm going to give this the benefit of the doubt, and rate this a lean takeover.

Ohio
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown
Challenger: State Treasurer Josh Mandel? Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor?
Rating: Leans Democratic Hold

Background: (10-10-11) In '06 Brown pick the perfect time to run for the senate when took on Mike DeWine. Who was the second most endangered incumbent senator that year, right behind Rick Santorum. also back in '06 then term limit incumbent Bob Taft was very unpopular, which resulted in Ted Strickland elected as Governor. Sherrod Brown toughest race to date was back in '94  with Newt Gingrich Republican Revolution. Brown eked out a 49-46 victory. Ever since then he has won pretty comfortably, but '12 he gonna have to fight. Brown has alot going for him, recents poll shows him running double digits among his likeliest opponents right now. He preaches that oh so good economic populism that play well in Ohio. Expect Brown to have the inside track in this race. As of now this is as a lean hold.

Pennsylvania
Incumbent: Democrtic Sen. Bob Casey, Jr.
Challenger: Fmr. US House candidate Tim Burns, Businessman Steve Welch
Rating: Likely Democratic Hold

Background: (10-10-11) The Casey name is like gold in the Keystone State. It's like what the Kennedy's are to Massachusetts, the Carnahan's in Missouri, Coumo's to New York, or the Landrieu's to Louisiana. Alot Democrats don't like his position on abortion, but beside that he's a moderate progressive, overall he a good team player for senate Dems. He doesn't go haywire or is a thorn in the side. Republicans just cannot find a top tier in this race, so I don't want to get confident & put this as a strong hold so instead I'm going to rate this as likely Democratic hold.

(10-24-11): Apparently the GOP in Pennsylvania can't find a good candidate to take on Bob Casey. These individuals who've declared themselves in the race are just waiting for an ass whooping. Tim Burns who lost twice two now Rep. Mark Critz in '10 one in a special election & then in the general. Another candidate is a business man name Steve Welch. One candidate that I'm surprise that the GOP haven't been able to recruit is Fmr. Governor & the first Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge. They tried to in '10 but it didn't work. He the only challenger to Bob Casey that could make this race competitive.

Texas
Open Seat: (R) Kay Bailey Hutchison retiring
Democrat: Former Lt. Gen. Ricardo Sanchez
Republican: Lt. Gov David Dewhurst, State Solicitor General Ted Cruz
Rating: Likely Republican Hold

Background: (10-10-11) Lets face it the Democrats don't have a strong enough bench in Texas. Ever since the 90's the Republicans have dominated state politics. Starting with George W. Bush beating the incumbent Ann Richards for Governor of Texas in '94. That office eventually propelled W. to the White House in '00. Also that same year Bush was elected as Governor, Kay Bailey won a full term to the senate, & ever since then the Republican have been able to held Texas in a political headlock. Turning Texas into a deep red state with a few blue oasis. A state where for decades Democrats were pretty much the only party in Texas, & the rest of the South, before Nixon & the Republican in the 60's began the Southern Strategy.

The reason why I put this race on this list even though it's not going to be competitive in the general, is the primary on the Republican side. Between Dewhurst & Cruz, the potential of a establishment candidate being knockoff by a tea party candidate. So far Cruz stock is rising. The NRSC head by Texas Senator Jon Cornyn is not taking sides in this, just like Patty Murray & the DSCC w/ the race in New Mexico. Neither party wants to piss off Hispanic voters, especially the Republcans. Democrats will be competitive in Texas one day, but our time is not now. Either way I have this as a likely hold for the GOP.

Utah*
Incumbent: Republican Sen. Orrin Hatch
Challenger: ?
Rating: Likely Republican Hold

Background: (10-10-11) I don't believe that a Democrat can win a state wide office in a state like Utah, especially in a Presidential year w/ the possibily that Romney may be the GOP candidate for president. Rep. Jim Matheson is the only Democrat in the Utah delegation, & the most electable. Hatch got a lucky break when Rep. Jason Cheffetz decided not to run for senate. Hatch is still vulnerable to a primary challenge. Also Jim Matheson has'nt decide on what he's going to do. Until then I'm having this as a likely hold for the incumbent party.

(11-14-11): I had a feeling that Matheson wasn't going to challenge Orrin Hatch. So I guess he going to run in a tougher district. Really the reason why this is on the list is because it's a huge possibility the Orrin Hatch can lose the primary, but I'm starting to believe that he might survive. I'm very close to putting this one on the shelf.

Virginia
Open Seat: (D) Jim Webb retiring
Democrat: Former Gov. & DNC Chair Tim Kaine
Republican: Former Sen. George Allen
Rating: Toss-Up (assuming that Allen wins the GOP nod)

Background: (10-10-11) Just incase I need to refresh your memory Macaca should have been the end of his political career. Allen was a likely Republican front runner for the GOP presidential nominee for '08. He went on to lose to Webb. Apparently he has a good shot to win his old job back. Tim Kaine who Democrats had bust their ass to get him in this race and finally did, Is very popular in Virginia and was recently Governor. This is going to come the to two things.
1. Who's on the GOP presidential ticket. 2. The tea party effect. First if Allen does win the GOP nod he needs to wish for the Republicans to have somebody on the ticket that can attract voters in rural VA. If you look at my review for Wisconsin, no GOP establishment candidate has the nominee too him or herself. Remember the 2012 election does not begin until the Iowa caucus. So right now establishment GOP candidates are in a good spot, because people are not paying that much attention to their senate races.

So Allen can breathe easy for right now. Better believe once the campaign season begins alot of Tea Party candidates will generate traction, and take down establishment candidates. You already know of their names of those who cost their party senate seats last year, and those who won but GOP had to spend a few more bucks then they would have like. If Allen loses in the primaries then this is an absolute hold for the Dems, if he does survive, and depending on how he does, then race is a toss-up.

(11-14-11): If there's anything thing that the state elections in Virignia taught us last week, specifically the state senate races, is that the race between Tim Kaine & George Allen will be the most watched and tightest race in the country. This race may go to the wee hours of the early morning. It's a high possibility that the race will be called late night. Both men have been neck-and-neck in the polls. Just to point out the first ever polled conducted between Kaine & Allen back in November of last year, showed Kaine leading Allen 50-44.

Mind you this poll was release before Jim Webb decided not to run in February of this year. Kaine jumped in the race in April. Ever since then we all knew that the race was going to become tight as the months went on. As tight as polling is Kaine has lead in most of them anywhere between 1-4 points, only one poll showed Allen leading, and about two polls showed them tied. Anyway you look at it this race is going to be very very close. Obviously who ever wins Virginia is going to have a major factor who wins this race. I have a hunch that something telling me Kaine is going to pull it out.

Wisconsin
Open Seat: (D) Herb Kohl retiring
Democrat: Rep. Tammy Baldwin
Republican: Former Gov. Tommy Thompson, Fmr Rep. Mark Neumann, Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald
Prediction: Leans Democratic Hold

Background: (10-10-11) Obviously with the political climate that been going on in Wisconsin this is going to be one of the closet watch senate races on election night. Democrats just like all over the country got bulldozed in 2010, and in a result we lost control of alot of legislatures in the senate and house. In Wisconsin Democrats lost the Governors Mansion, State Senate, and House. Walker and the GOP began their anti-union work, but not without backlash and becoming within one seat away in losing the state senate in the recall elections in July.

Tammy Baldwin is a prime recruit for the Dems. A great progressive fighter, and shall she win not only would she become the first female senator from the state of Wisconsin, but also the first ever LGBT senator elected to the United States Senate. This race is going to depend on who is the GOP nominee. Fmr. Gov. Tommy Thompson is the frontrunner, but he does not have the nominee to himself. Honestly his best shot was to run against Russ Feingold, and he passed. As a result Feingold lost to Ron Johnson. As we saw in '10, Republicans cannot control their primaries (i.e. Nevada, Colorado, and Delaware).

I believe his time has past, and it's been a long time since he's been Governor. If Thompson does not win the nominee then the Dems have a very substantial advantage in this race. If Thompson does win, then it's going to be more competitive, but Tommy is going to be very bruised up. The fact that he has two futher right opponets, and Club for Growth against him. Also doesn't help that WI primaries are in September, he may too bruised to take on Baldwin. Baldwin does benefit that Wisconsin is a lean blue state. It'll also help if Scott Walker is on the ballot for re-call. Right now I got this as slight edge for the Democrat assuming that Thompson doesn't survive.

(10-24-11): I don't know if it can get any better for Tammy Baldwin. She pretty much has the Democratic field to herself, giving her an enough time to define & introduce herself to Wisconsin voters. While on the the Republican side it looks like it will be an absolute bloodbath. Former Sen. Russ Feingold lend his endorsement to Baldwin while other Dems are being smart & not challenging her. Her follow WI colleague in the US House Ron Kind making sure she has an easy time to the general & holding that seat. Plus lets hope that the WI Dems can get a successful recall of Scott Walker aswell his Lt. Rebecca Kleefisch. If that happens that'll give a huge boost to Baldwin.

Continue Reading

Fri Nov 18, 2011 at 05:40 PM PST

Georgia On My Mind

by BKGyptian89

Georgia the Empire State of the South, was once a solid Democratic state. Giving us figures such as President Jimmy Carter, Sam Nunn, Wyche Fowler, and yes even Zell Miller who was a good Democrat until start drinking that hard right kool aid. When he did that he went from that to this. In 2008 alot of pundits was surprised on how well Obama did in The Peach State, coming within five points of McCain. A 52-47 margin. So what does that tell you? It means as time goes on, and certainly within this decade, the State of Georgia is going to trend purple, and become a competitive state. The Republicans, just less than 10 years ago came to power, after centuries of Democratic control in Atlanta. With the stunning defect of Gov. Roy Barnes to Sonny Perdue, along with Saxby Chambliss defeating Max Cleland for the senate in 2002. For the Georgia GOP they know the last ten years have been good, but they know they're not going to be all that powerful, and Georgia will be competitive again.

Here's some qoute's from PPP on a poll taken in Georgia back in April of this year. Before Huckabee & Palin announce they weren't running.

Obama looks like a pretty viable contender in the state next year regardless of who his Republican opponent is. 47% of voters approve of the job he’s doing to 48% that disapprove. Those numbers suggest Georgia is probably the state Obama lost in 2008 that he has the best chance of flipping for 2012 because in the two states that he came closer to winning last time around — Missouri and Montana — his approval numbers are far worse at 43/52 and 41/54, respectively.

In addition to his lead over Gingrich, Obama also has an advantage over Georgia’s other home grown candidate, Herman Cain, at 44-39 and over Sarah Palin at 48-43. He trails both Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney by three points at 48-45 and 46-43 respectively, but even those deficits represent an improvement from his 5 point loss in the state in 2008.

Georgia’s yet another generally Republican leaning state where voters are just not responding very positively to the leading names in the GOP Presidential picture. Only Huckabee has more voters in the state with a positive impression of him than a negative one at 48/33. In addition to Gingrich’s negative numbers Romney comes down at 37/41, Cain at 28/36, and Palin at 35/56.

But I think the most important quote comes from Jim Galloway, a longtime Georgia political insider from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

Even if Obama doesn’t end up winning in Georgia next year the vast differences in his support along age lines suggest Democrats should be competitive in the state in the years to come. Among voters under 65 Obama’s approval rating is a 52/42 spread. It’s only his horrid numbers with senior citizens at 27/68 that put his numbers in negative territory overall. As whites who grew up in the segregation era die out over the next decade or two this state should start looking a lot ‘purpler’ than its red tinge in recent election cycles would suggest.
 

Galloway couldn't explain that quote any better. The fact that older white folks who grown up, and lived through the Jim Crow era & Civil Rights movement will eventually pass away. With the increasing African-American population, and not forgetting increasing amount of Latinos and Whites from coming up North down to the Atlanta area. Those demographics over time will change the political landscape of Georgia, and Texas is right after them. Georgia in my opinion is going to flip quicker than Texas, due to the fact it cost more money in Texas with all big the media markets they have, compared to GA.

Now it's going to be very interesting on how President Obama pulls his resources in Georgia, and how much he tries to make a play. You have to agree out all the Southern states that the President is going to do the most heavy duty with all out blitz is Florida & North Carolina tied for first, and Virginia right after that. Especially with three individuals sharing the ballot with Obama in those states. Bill Nelson, Bev Perdue, and Tim Kaine. I think Obama is going to focused more on FL, NC, and VA to make sure they hold two vital senate seats, as well as a vital Governor's Mansion in Raleigh. Which is the last line of defense from a complete rabid red takeover of that state. Also to point out that the Democrats are going to have their covention in Charlotte. He'll make a sizable effort in Georgia, but not on the same level as the other three states I mention. As Galloway mention even if he comes closes that will be a moral victory by itself, and a silver lining for Dems in GA.

If you recall back in '08 Saxby Chambliss had to fight in general election against Jim Martin. Chambliss should be really called Saxby "Shameless" after a disgusting ad he ran back in '02 against triple amputee 'Nam veteran Max Cleland. Trying to insinuate that he's is unpatriotic, and in hence undermining Pres. Bush in the war on terror. Due to a third party candidate, and Georgia rules rules that candidates need to pass a 50% threshold. Chambliss was force in a runoff  

Analyzing the '08 General map & the Run-off map

Martin carried the usuall counties that are reliably blue. Fulton which is Atlanta. DeKalb county which has a tiny bit of Atlanta, and is home to Decatur. Richmond county home to Augusta, Chatnam which is Savannah. Bibb county where Macon sits. Muscogge county which harbors Columbus, and finally Clarke county home of the college town of Athens. What Martin did on that night that Democrats have tried to do in Georgia, was that he was able to tapped in the suburban Atlanta counties. Especially Cobb county northwest of Fulton, which is the county Marietta sits in. Martin was also able to carry Rockdale & Newton counties, those two counties are southwest of DeKalb. Gwinnett county northeast of DeKalb, has been stubbornly Republican, but by the mid-to-end of this decade the demographics of Gwinnett is going to change that. This is exactly how Obama did in Georgia in 2008. If you compare the senate race, and the presidential race map in Georgia, the only difference is the Obama didn't carry any suburban counties north of the A.

(R) Saxby Chambliss 49.8%
(D) Jim Martin 46.8%

'08 Georgia Senatorial Election by Counties (General)
Photobucket

This has been the standard map for Dems in Georgia. No traction in the suburban Atlanta counties, and losing counties around Columbus in Southeast Georgia. Near the Georgia-Alabama state line. The run-off was a month after the presidential election so there was a huge dropoff, and Chambliss was able to coast to re-election. Compared to the '10 Gubernatorial election between Barnes & Deal. Barnes did similar to Martin, in the counties he carried in the general. Only difference is he didn't carry Cobb county. Granted '10 was a bad year for Democrats. If it wasn't nothing like it was this race would had been much closer, considering Deal barely scrap through the primary, and had a considerable amount of baggage.

(R) Saxby Chambliss 57.4%
(D) Jim Martin 42.6%

'08 Georgia Senatorial Election by Counties (Run-off)
Photobucket

It obvious Democrats will be competitive in Georgia. One canidate who would have been a rising star, and possibly still is Mary Norwood. A city councilwomen who ran for Mayor of Atlanta back in '09, and loss by a hair in the run off. 620 votes out 84,000 cast. She would have been the first white Mayor of Atlanta since 1974. One way I thought she should had gone was run for the state legislature, specifically the senate. She could had got some legislative experience, and decided to take on possibly Johnny Isakson in a presidential year when you know there will be a higher turnout.

Then John Barrow, who Republicans try to screw in a unprecedented mid-decade redistricting. Where he actually had to move. If there is anything Barrow has shown is that he's a fighter, a hard campaigner, and somebody who shouldn't be counted out. I'm not sure if he could survive running in his new district. If he does he going to be in a dilemma if he should challenge Nathan Deal for the Governorship, or Saxby Chambliss for the US Senate in '14

Certainly the Georgia Democratic Party is going to need to deal with party switcher who like to stick there thumb in the wind to see which way it's blowing. Start to cultivate a strong bench for the future. Also need to find ways to make sure potential voters are not disfranchised from voting. It's not a coincidence that Repubs are doing this all over the country in key states. They want the '12 elections and on foward to demographically look like the elections in '10 instead of '08. Which is really impossible since we are becoming a minority-majority country.

Discuss

Mon Nov 14, 2011 at 06:35 PM PST

'12 Senate Races (Nov-14-11)

by BKGyptian89

This week updates: Florida, Nevada, Utah, Virginia

Note Until we see how the Arizona race develop, I'm not ranking it as marquee or one to watch. Also to mention West Virginia is off the list.

Marquee Races & Ones To Keep An Eye On

Connecticut
Open Seat: (ID) Joe Lieberman retiring
Democrat: Rep. Chris Murphy, Former Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz
Republican: Former WWE Executive Linda McMahon, Former Rep. Chris Shays
Rating: Strong Democratic Hold

Background: (10-10-11) Two top tier recruits on the Democratic side, Chris Murphy & Susan Bysiewicz. On the Republican side you have Former WWE Executive Linda McMahon who got taken to the cleaners by now Sen. Blumenthal. Despite his on occasion distorting his military service he was able to win comfortably by a 55-43 margin. Carrying every county in the state except for the Northwest corner, Litchfield County. Chris Shays survived the blue tide of '06, but eventually the Obama tsunami caught up w/ him in '08 by losing his New York City suburban district in Southwestern Connecticut.

Bysiewicz has recently took a few hits in her numbers. Probably do to the fact of her playing musical chairs last year. Running for Governor, then instead running for Attorney General when Blumenthal was running for the open seat left by Chris Dodd's retirement, only come to find out she wasn't even qualified. Also her debacle as State Secretary by calling the very close Gubernatorial race between Dan Malloy & Tom Foley too early.

Those things, voters are most likely starting to remember & is what giving Murphy the edge in the primary & the general. Despite her pass stumble this going to be a great primary on the Blue team between two good candidates. Personally I would love to see more women senators elected, but no matter who wins the nod, Democrats shouldn't lose this seat. McMahon is going squash her opponents in the primary w/ her money only to blow it away in the general. Either way it's either going to be Senator-elect Murphy, or Bysiewicz, & so long to Joe Lieberman.

Florida
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson
Challenger: Rep. Connie Mack IV, Former. Sen. George LeMieux, Former House Maj. Leader Adam Hasner, Ret. Army Colonel & University Professor Mike McCalister
Rating: Toss-Up/Slight Democrat Edge

Background: (10-10-11) I don't know what it is with Bill Nelson. Politicians all over DC would give a leg & arm to be in his position. Either he's a very good politician, or he's been extremely fortunate. I think both. Since being elected to the senate in 2000, Nelson has had the luxery of facing bad challengers. In '00 he faced Bill McCollum, which was a nasty campaign & his toughest to date. Nelson still won pretty comfortably by a 51-46 margin, that's pretty good in a state like Florida. Further proof that McCollum is a bad candidate is him losing to now Gov. Rick Scott in the Gubernatorial primary, Scott went on to barely beat CFO (State Treasurer) Alex Sink by the skin of his teeth.

'06 he had an even worst challenger in Fmr. Rep. Katherine Harris, who he just blew out the water! Nelson beat her in places that are Republican friendly. Places such as Pensacola, Panama City, Jacksonville, & Sarasota. I knew when Rick Scott got elected as Governor, Charlie Crist was politically shunned from Tallahassee & Washington GOP'ers, & Jeb Bush ruled out running for the senate, that Nelson had a much clearer path to a third term. Him & Democrats are going to benefit tremendously the fact that Obama is going to make a big push in Florida like almost every presidential candidate does, & that fact that the Dems have the Fair Redistricting in Florida where the GOP legislature in Tallahassee cannot gerrymander Florida's map on a federal & state level anymore.

Leaving a good recruit in the wings in 2018 shall he decide to retire. Bill is a very skilled pol & is a fairly moderate progressive. He has the edge & I think he'll win, but it's definitely going to be a close race. If he get's LeMieux who probably be bruised in the primary, he wins with some wiggle room to spare. If it's a far right tea party opponent like Hasner or McCalister, two individuals who support the Paul Ryan budget plan, that will play into Bill's hands in senior heavy populated Florida. Expect Bill to take them to the woodshed. As of right now this a lean hold.

(11-14-11): Even though Bill Nelson was leading his Republican challengers by double-digits in the high 40's we all knew that wasn't going to sustained for that long as the election got close. Once the Republican candidate was know the race was going to tightened up. Guess what? The future is now for Bill Nelson. After having a change a heart Cornelius Harvey McGillicuddy IV, other wise known as Connie Mack has decided to jump in, and has made it a race. Still Mack has alot to prove. Welcome to to the big leagues (no pun intended). He giving up a safe house seat for a statewide election, against a tough incumbent who is not going to be easy to beat. It's going to be a very bloody GOP primary, benefiting Nelson. Like I said national GOP can't control their primaries. Just because he has a popular last name don't think for one moment his primary opponent won't drop the gloves.

There hasn't been a Mack on a statewide ballot in Florida in more the 15 years. '94 to be exact (his daddy was a former senator). There also was an early poll release in February as a hypothetical match up before Mack originally decided not to run, showing Nelson leading him 45-40. I don't think Bill Nelson is stupid where he taught there wasn't going to be a major shake-up in the race to challenge him, and he was going to cruise to reelection. Cause it certainly look like it. The way he's been raising money, going to have close to 15-20 mil. He hasn't taking it likely. Given Mack announcement I'm still rating this lean Dem but a slight lean hold.

For some miraculous if Mack turns out not to be the deal the GOP hopes him to be, and loses the primary, then this Nelson gets reelected. The good thing for Nelson is that you already know huge push Obama is going to make in Florida. With Obama on top of the ticket, if Obama wins Florida (which I believe he will), then Nelson also wins. I think Nelson will outperform Obama in Florida, by winning pick up more counties such as ones in the Tallahassee area like Madison, and Hamilton. Bill can definitely win Duval, if he does then it's a wrap.  Even if the election was today, against any of the GOP nominee I believe Nelson will still win.

Hawaii
Open Seat: (D) Daniel Akaka retiring
Democrat: Rep. Mazie Hirono , Former Rep. Ed Case
Republican: Former Gov. Linda Lingle
Rating: Likely Democratic Hold

Background: (10-10-11) With Senator Akaka retiring & Hawaii's favorite son on top of the ticket, it's very unlikely the Republicans flip this seat. The candidates on the Democratic side are Rep. Mazie Hirono & worthless asshole Ed Case. We all know what kind of gutter politics Case is going to run in order to try to win the primary that he won't win. We all know the muck he ran up in the that special election for Hawaii's 1st congressional district last year. Knowing that he had no path to being elected, instead of doing the honorable thing by stepping aside for the other Dem Colleen Hanabusa to win, he stayed in race thus splitting the vote. Resulting in Charles Djou the Republican being elected. Granted Hanabusa did win in November, but it just goes to show how much of a dick Case is.

My thought is that once campaigning season begins Hirono is going run rough shot, & pull away to clinch the Democratic nod. She'll be the first women senator from Hawaii, as well the first ever Asian-American women in the United States senate.

(10-18-11): So it's official former Gov. Linda Lingle has official thrown her hat for the open seat in Hawaii. Some so call political pundit now has rated this as a "Toss-up" Pleeeeaasse (rolling my eyes).

(10-24-11): Maybe it wasn't wise to overlook Linda Lingle jumping into this race, & dismissing her as a joke because she has made this a race. So much so that I'm changing the rating to a strong to likely hold. At the same time it's no reason to get nervous. 1. It's a big hole in Ed Case chances of being the nominee, & plus most of the state party is behind Hirono. 2. Obama is on top of the ticket. I think Lingle has hit her ceiling & can't get further beyond that mark. I tell you one thing tough, whoever is the Chair of the Democratic Party in Hawaii should vigorously pull all the establishment & every elected official to rally behind Hirono & make her the presumptive nominee.

Indiana*
Incumbent: Republican Sen. Richard Lugar
Challenger(s): Democratic Rep. Joe Donnelly & Republican State Secretary Richard Mourdock
Rating: Leans Republican Hold

Background: (10-10-11) Lugar is in the same boat as Snowe, he's a top target for the far right. His challenger in the primaries is State Tres. Richard Mourdock who is running far to Lugar's right. I think Obama was very lucky to win Indiana in '08. He edged McCain by carrying Indianapolis, but by carrying the Chicago burbs in Northwest Indiana, & the Louisville burbs in Southern Indiana. Indiana is least likely to go blue this time around, but there's a chance that if Lugar goes down that Donnelly can win. So right now to play this safe I'm rating this as lean red.

Maine*
Incumbent: Republican Sen. Olympia Snowe (As of right now)
Challenger: Former Gov. John Baldacci? House Min. Leader Emily Cain? Former Gubernatorial Candidate & Businesswomen Rosa Scarcelli?
Rating: Leans Republican hold

Background: (10-10-11) This has casualty of Tea Party written all over it. Snowe probably knew when Maine elected a tea party governor in 2010 in Paul LePage, she was in troble. Credit given he barely won in a four person race by two points. Still Maine Republicans are in a mood for a more conservative Republican candidate. There alot of If's, What, & Who. Lets start with Who? The Dems need to recruit a top tier challenger.

John Baldacci is a great pick up. Now with the If, cause if Snowe is taken down by a more conservative challenger, the Democrats need to have a nominee that could guarantee one of a few pick ups they'll have that night. That make up for likely loses in North Dakota & Nebraska. Now What? Snowe could take the easy way out & just decide to retire, but she already running for re-election. I don't think she'll become a Democrat, do a Crist & turn Independent, or do write-in like Lisa Murkowski if she lose her primary. The Republicans won't have that, they're hell bent on taking the senate on they don't want nothing slowing them down. She might just take a que from Michael Bennet & Arlen Specter (eat your humble pie & accept you loss). I know Markos has wrote alot about Olympia Snowe & the dilemma facing her. As of right now this is a lean hold. Stay tune folks, because this is going to be one to watch!

Massachusetts
Incumbent: Republican Sen. Scott Brown
Challenger: Former Obama Adviser & Consumer Financial Protection advocate Elizabeth Warren
Rating: Toss-Up/Slight Democratic Edge

Backgroud: (10-10-11) This race should'nt even be marque, or competitive. If Martha Coakley just shook hands outside of Fenway Park, and campaigned like she really wanted to be a senator from Massachusetts, then we wouldn't have a Republican sitting in Teddy Kennedy seat. Maybe the Brown win was a blessing disguise, because Liz Warren is a far more better candidate then Coakley. She squashes the notion that Sen. Centerfold is untouchable. She already has Brown shitting in his pants. Also the people of Massachusetts like what they here from her so far. Massachusetts is pretty likely to go blue in '12, but I don't Brown will be able to convince the people to split their tickets. Until this race progresses further I'm going to rate this as a toss up.
(10-18-11): Just barely a month since she launched her senate campaign & so far Liz Warren has raked in a little over 3 mil. Making it very likely for Brown to be burning thru his 10 mil like you can't believe. Plus the report of Brown plagiarising from former Sen. Liddy Dole, make it safe to say it's been a crap month for Sen. Centerfold.

Michigan
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow
Challenger: Former Rep. Pete Hoekstra
Rating: Likely Democratic Hold

Background: (10-10-11) After the red tide of '10 DC pundits believed Debbie Stabenow would be vulnerable. Probably because of Romney's Michigan roots, (assuming he wins the GOP presidential nod). The fact that he was born in Detroit & his father was Governor in the 60's. I beg to differ. 1. That was so long ago that people don't even remember those day when his pops was Govnah. 2. Mitt's "Let Detroit go Bankrupt" comment isn't going to play well in Michigan. 3. Expect Obama to tout what he did to save the auto industry. An industry not just vital to the Motor City, but the entire state of Michigan. Hoekstra is a crazy fuck. He Tried to run hard right for the GOP primary for Governor of Michigan last year. Even though I believe she's going to win this race, expect her to run like she's 10 points down. Got this as a likely hold.

Missouri
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill
Challenger: Former State Treasurer Sarah Steelman, Rep. Todd Aiken
Rating: Toss-Up

Background: (10-10-11) I think we all knew back when Claire beat then-Sen. Jim Talent by a 50-47 margin,who back in '02 barely beat Jean Carnahan, chances were she's going to have to fight for re-election given the swingish nature of Missourah. McCaskill is a smart & savvy politician. I know she not perfect & she goes off the reservation a bit, but by no means is she a Ben Nelson, or Evan Bayh. Guys who intentionally try to screw their own party at every turn they get. She preaches economic populism like her colleague Sherrod Brown from Ohio, & that plays well especially in the Midwest. Depending on who the challenger is, it's going to have and impact on the race. Both candidates are going to give her a run for money.

Obviously this is a prime seat that the GOP are eyeing & believe they could pick it up. If she has Todd "bat shit crazy" Aiken, she has a better chance of holding on. If it's Steelman she is gonna have to work for it either way. It also helps that Gov. Nixon is going to be on the ballot with her. She need to hope that Democrats have a strong ticket in Missouri along w/ her & Nixon. So far that seem going in the right direction w/ Fmr. State Auditor & Chairwomen of the Missouri Democratic Party, Susan Montee throwing her hat in the ring for Lt. Gov. Even though I think she has the edge as of right now this is just a pure tossup, to close to call.

(10-24-11): Missouri Republicans are becoming quite nervous, & are starting to pull the alarm. They're having a rough time finding credible candidates for next year elections. Luckily Dems have top tier recruits for '12. Gov. Nixon is most likely a shoe in for reelection. State Party Chair & Fmr. State Auditor Susan Montee is running for Lt. Gov. Chris Koster who switch parties in '07 is running for Attorney General again.

Unfortunately State Secretary Robin Carnahan is retiring instead of seeking a likely shoe in for reelection, State Rep. Jason Kander from KC is looking replace her. We all know about Lt Gov. Kinder no need to go there. The two GOP candidates vying to take on McCaskill, Sarah Steelman & Todd Aiken are having awful, matter of fact horrific fund raising numbers. That's probably making McCaskill grinning a bit, but she still polling slightly ahead in polls within the margin of error. A little two close for comfort, but the bright side for Democrat are Republicans are having such crap candidates that even though Obama probably wont win Mizzou, Dems would do better down ballot in the other races.

Montana
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Jon Tester
Challenger: Republican Rep. Denny Rehberg
Rating: Toss-Up

Background: (10-10-11) Tester barely won in '06 what was a good year for Democrats, against a very vulnerable incumbent Sen. Conrad Burns in a 49-48 nail biter. Tester also voted against the DREAM Act showing that he only cares about getting re-elected. He has the strongest challenge in Montana only member in the House of Representatives Danny Rehberg. Rehberg was smart not to vote for the Paul Ryan plan, knowing that Tester was going to beat him over the head w/ it. This race is most likely going to be a toss-up till election day.

Nebraska
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Ben Nelson
Challenger: Atty. Gen. Jon Bruning, State Treasurer Don Stenberg, State Sen. Deb
Fischer
Rating: Leans Republican Gain

Background: (10-10-11) Nelson is the most endangered Democratic incumbent up for re-election. Beltway insider thought that he was vulnarable for in '06 cycle to the possible by then Governor Mike Johanns challenge. Right after Bush was re-elected in '04 he tapped Johanns to be his Ag. Secretary. Nebraska GOP could'nt find a good candidate cause their top choices passed. But now Nelson will not be so lucky. Polls shows him losing to Bruning & Stenburg. His best hope is to have a tea party nutjob, but even still Nebraska is a pretty red state & I don't see people spitting the tickets at the ballot booth unless the GOP nominee is really, & I mean really crazy as fuck.

Bruning has loss some steam resulting in Ben Nelson closing the gap. If there's any Democrat I would love to see lose in '12 it's Ben Nelson. He was probably one of those "anonymous Democratic senators" who criticized Obama's tone as of lately towards the GOP as "not being productive" (if anyone could find that artice that would be great!). This is a leans republican gain, not putting this as likely yet.

Nevada
Incumbent: Republican Sen. Dean Heller
Challenger: Democratic Rep. Shelly Berkley
Rating: Toss-up/Leans Democratic Gain

Background: (10-10-11) This is one of the few seats that the Dems can pick up in a map that's let's favorable to them, where they don't have luxury of playing offense, and have to defend 23 seats. With the John Ensign marital affair scandal that came too surface in 2009, he at first still was going too run for reelection. Then he decided not to run because he was going to get crush either in the primary or the general. Due to pressure to retire from the GOP senate leadership, he made way for then-Rep. Dean Heller & decided not to seek re-election. Facing the prospect that he was going to face ethic charges he resigned from the senate, & Dean Heller was appointed by Gov. Sandoval.

The challenger Rep. Shelly Berkley is a formidable opponate, but she has had to endure some bumps in the road as of lately, involving her husband's medical practice. Personally I would had preferred Atty. Gen. Catherine Cortez-Mastos. Senate age wise she's young, attractive, ambitious, but most of all she's Latina. Having a Democratic Latina senator from a state that is 1/4 Hispanic would a good cast mate for the Dems. There would had been no way that Heller would had beaten her, especially with the Democratic machine that Harry Reid has built in Nevada over the years.

But still Berkley is a good prime recruit for Team Blue, and Mastos is a prime recruit waiting in the wings, if a possible Reid retirement happens in 2016. Giving that Heller voted for the Ryan budget twice, It'll come back to bite him. The fact Reid has built a good state establishment for the Dems from the ground up, is a plus for the Berkley. I still believe the Dems have a good chance of gaining this seat.

(11-14-11): Even Dean Heller knows this is going to be a tough race. Also appointees, statically most of them don't get nominate for a full term. To me that's kind of a true, but also false stat. It really depends what state that senator is from. Shelly Berkley isn't just from Vegas, she is Vegas. Her fund raising capabilities is ridiculous. Because of her fund raising abilities she is tied with Heller. One thing to point out is that Berkley is polling with 3/4 of the Latino vote in the Silver State. That's the amount that help Harry Reid beat Sharron Angle, as well as Obama win over McCain in Nevada. If that continues then you can bet that Heller will be another statistic.

New Jersey
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez
Challenger: State Senate Min. Leader Tom Kean, Jr? Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno?
Rating: Likely Democratic Hold

Background: (10-10-11) I had to put this race on here 1. because I live in Jersey & 2. NJ politics is quite interesting. Menendez became senator when Corzine was elected Governor of New Jersey back in '05, & tapped then Rep. Menendez to be his successor. In '06 he faced quite a challenge from the State Minority Leader in the in the state senate Thomas Kean Jr. Son of popular Governor in the 80's Tom Kean Sr. But when it was all said & done Menendez mopped up Kean Jr. 53-43 margin.

Menendez had to leap some hurdles. Some were partisan, some were political, & some were ethical. Specifically by at the time US Attorney for New Jersey Chris Christie. There's no love lost between two. In '06 Christie tried to open & issue investigations & subpoenas against him in his politcal dealings in the Garden State, nearly derailing his campaign in a heat race with Kean Jr. Just two months before the elections. A blatantly partisan hit by Christie, which was an attempt to raise his stock within the GOP ranks in Jersey. Before he was in the Senate, his congressional house district comprises of New Jersey's two largest cities in the two largest counties. Newark in Essex County & Jersey City in Hudson County. Op-eds in the Times & Star-Ledger proclaim him as running Hudson County as a politcal machine.

Still his foes who've alleged corruption have still failed to generate a single indictment. However, Menendez looks good for another term. Menendez is a strong voice in the US Senate, in which he was a staunch voice for the DREAM Act & the Zadroga Bill. He is probably New Jersey most powerful politician. In 2001 he coordinated Jim McGreevey gubernatorial campaign, as well as state legislative races in New Jersey. Effectively ending Republican rule in Trenton & establishing a Democratic trifecta, resulting in Dems controlling the State House & Senate. So far no major canidate has step up. I doubt Kean Jr. wants another shot (probably waiting for '14) whoever he faces Menendez has the upper hand as New Jersey is likely to go blue in '12.

(10-18-11): Blah, blah, blah. It's that same old story again. That story that suggest a Republican can win a federal statewide race in Jersey. Yet Roberto is still crushing his opponents. For some reason Garden State Dems seem to lead in polls, or labeled "potentially vulnerable". Only to win there race weather it's close, or a double digit blowout. At the end they win. It's like Garden state Dems are Lucy with the football, & the Repubs are like Charlie Brown always landing on their asses.

Just because folks in NJ the state I live in, would tolerate electing a GOP Governor at times as a balance to our Democratic controlled legislature, doesn't mean they would elect a Republican to the US Senate. Nor the White House. It's something that national Repubs can't seem to understand. Just let them keep believing that pipe dream.

New Mexico
Open Seat: (D) Jeff Bingaman retiring
Democrat: Rep. Martin Heinrich, State Auditor Hector Balderas
Republican: Former Rep. Heather Wilson, Lt. Governor John Sanchez
Rating: Leans Democratic Hold

Background: (10-10-11) Two very competitive primaries on both sides, which will lead to a competitive general. Heinrich & Balderas are the candidates on the Demoractic side. Both of them have very bright futures, & are quite handsome individuals. Obviously & rightly so the DSCC are not going to take side in this race. Giving that you have a Hispanic candidate, in a Hispanic heavy state. Heather Wilson tried to run for Domenici open seat in '08, but lost to a more conservative challenger. Expect the same thing to happen to her again. She's not a favorite for the likes of the Tea Party Express, Club For Growth & Redstate crowd. Most likely they going to roll w/ Lt. Gov. Sanchez. The thing is the Dems have two good recruits, so who ever wins the primary will have an advantage for the general due to the fact that New Mexico leans blue.

Ohio
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown
Challenger: State Treasurer Josh Mandel? Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor?
Rating: Leans Democratic Hold

Background: (10-10-11) In '06 Brown pick the perfect time to run for the senate when took on Mike DeWine. Who was the second most endangered incumbent senator that year, right behind Rick Santorum. also back in '06 then term limit incumbent Bob Taft was very unpopular, which resulted in Ted Strickland elected as Governor. Sherrod Brown toughest race to date was back in '94  with Newt Gingrich Republican Revolution. Brown eked out a 49-46 victory. Ever since then he has won pretty comfortably, but '12 he gonna have to fight. Brown has alot going for him, recents poll shows him running double digits among his likeliest opponents right now. He preaches that oh so good economic populism that play well in Ohio. Expect Brown to have the inside track in this race. As of now this is as a lean hold.

Pennsylvania
Incumbent: Democrtic Sen. Bob Casey, Jr.
Challenger: Fmr. US House candidate Tim Burns, Businessman Steve Welch
Rating: Likely Democratic Hold

Background: (10-10-11) The Casey name is like gold in the Keystone State. It's like what the Kennedy's are to Massachusetts, the Carnahan's in Missouri, Coumo's to New York, or the Landrieu's to Louisiana. Alot Democrats don't like his position on abortion, but beside that he's a moderate progressive, overall he a good team player for senate Dems. He doesn't go haywire or is a thorn in the side. Republicans just cannot find a top tier in this race, so I don't want to get confident & put this as a strong hold so instead I'm going to rate this as likely Democratic hold.

(10-24-11): Apparently the GOP in Pennsylvania can't find a good candidate to take on Bob Casey. These individuals who've declared themselves in the race are just waiting for an ass whooping. Tim Burns who lost twice two now Rep. Mark Critz in '10 one in a special election & then in the general. Another candidate is a business man name Steve Welch. One candidate that I'm surprise that the GOP haven't been able to recruit is Fmr. Governor & the first Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge. They tried to in '10 but it didn't work. He the only challenger to Bob Casey that could make this race competitive.

Texas
Open Seat: (R) Kay Bailey Hutchison retiring
Democrat: Former Lt. Gen. Ricardo Sanchez
Republican: Lt. Gov David Dewhurst, State Solicitor General Ted Cruz
Rating: Likely Republican Hold

Background: (10-10-11) Lets face it the Democrats don't have a strong enough bench in Texas. Ever since the 90's the Republicans have dominated state politics. Starting with George W. Bush beating the incumbent Ann Richards for Governor of Texas in '94. That office eventually propelled W. to the White House in '00. Also that same year Bush was elected as Governor, Kay Bailey won a full term to the senate, & ever since then the Republican have been able to held Texas in a political headlock. Turning Texas into a deep red state with a few blue oasis. A state where for decades Democrats were pretty much the only party in Texas, & the rest of the South, before Nixon & the Republican in the 60's began the Southern Strategy.

The reason why I put this race on this list even though it's not going to be competitive in the general, is the primary on the Republican side. Between Dewhurst & Cruz, the potential of a establishment candidate being knockoff by a tea party candidate. So far Cruz stock is rising. The NRSC head by Texas Senator Jon Cornyn is not taking sides in this, just like Patty Murray & the DSCC w/ the race in New Mexico. Neither party wants to piss off Hispanic voters, especially the Republcans. Democrats will be competitive in Texas one day, but our time is not now. Either way I have this as a likely hold for the GOP.

Utah*
Incumbent: Republican Sen. Orrin Hatch
Challenger: ?
Rating: Likely Republican Hold

Background: (10-10-11) I don't believe that a Democrat can win a state wide office in a state like Utah, especially in a Presidential year w/ the possibily that Romney may be the GOP candidate for president. Rep. Jim Matheson is the only Democrat in the Utah delegation, & the most electable. Hatch got a lucky break when Rep. Jason Cheffetz decided not to run for senate. Hatch is still vulnerable to a primary challenge. Also Jim Matheson has'nt decide on what he's going to do. Until then I'm having this as a likely hold for the incumbent party.

(11-14-11): I had a feeling that Matheson wasn't going to challenge Orrin Hatch. So I guess he going to run in a tougher district. Really the reason why this is on the list is because it's a huge possibility the Orrin Hatch can lose the primary, but I'm starting to believe that he might survive. I'm very close to putting this one on the shelf.

Virginia
Open Seat: (D) Jim Webb retiring
Democrat: Former Gov. & DNC Chair Tim Kaine
Republican: Former Sen. George Allen
Rating: Toss-Up (assuming that Allen wins the GOP nod)

Background: (10-10-11) Just incase I need to refresh your memory Macaca should have been the end of his political career. Allen was a likely Republican front runner for the GOP presidential nominee for '08. He went on to lose to Webb. Apparently he has a good shot to win his old job back. Tim Kaine who Democrats had bust their ass to get him in this race and finally did, Is very popular in Virginia and was recently Governor. This is going to come the to two things.
1. Who's on the GOP presidential ticket. 2. The tea party effect. First if Allen does win the GOP nod he needs to wish for the Republicans to have somebody on the ticket that can attract voters in rural VA. If you look at my review for Wisconsin, no GOP establishment candidate has the nominee too him or herself. Remember the 2012 election does not begin until the Iowa caucus. So right now establishment GOP candidates are in a good spot, because people are not paying that much attention to their senate races.

So Allen can breathe easy for right now. Better believe once the campaign season begins alot of Tea Party candidates will generate traction, and take down establishment candidates. You already know of their names of those who cost their party senate seats last year, and those who won but GOP had to spend a few more bucks then they would have like. If Allen loses in the primaries then this is an absolute hold for the Dems, if he does survive, and depending on how he does, then race is a toss-up.

(11-14-11): If there's anything thing that the state elections in Virignia taught us last week, specifically the state senate races, is that the race between Tim Kaine & George Allen will be the most watched and tightest race in the country. This race may go to the wee hours of the early morning. It's a high possibility that the race will be called late night. Both men have been neck-and-neck in the polls. Just to point out the first ever polled conducted between Kaine & Allen back in November of last year, showed Kaine leading Allen 50-44.

Mind you this poll was release before Jim Webb decided not to run in February of this year. Kaine jumped in the race in April. Ever since then we all knew that the race was going to become tight as the months went on. As tight as polling is Kaine has lead in most of them anywhere between 1-4 points, only one poll showed Allen leading, and about two polls showed them tied. Anyway you look at it this race is going to be very very close. Obviously who ever wins Virginia is going to have a major factor who wins this race. I have a hunch that something telling me Kaine is going to pull it out.

Wisconsin
Open Seat: (D) Herb Kohl retiring
Democrat: Rep. Tammy Baldwin
Republican: Former Gov. Tommy Thompson, Fmr Rep. Mark Neumann, Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald
Prediction: Leans Democratic Hold

Background: (10-10-11) Obviously with the political climate that been going on in Wisconsin this is going to be one of the closet watch senate races on election night. Democrats just like all over the country got bulldozed in 2010, and in a result we lost control of alot of legislatures in the senate and house. In Wisconsin Democrats lost the Governors Mansion, State Senate, and House. Walker and the GOP began their anti-union work, but not without backlash and becoming within one seat away in losing the state senate in the recall elections in July.

Tammy Baldwin is a prime recruit for the Dems. A great progressive fighter, and shall she win not only would she become the first female senator from the state of Wisconsin, but also the first ever LGBT senator elected to the United States Senate. This race is going to depend on who is the GOP nominee. Fmr. Gov. Tommy Thompson is the frontrunner, but he does not have the nominee to himself. Honestly his best shot was to run against Russ Feingold, and he passed. As a result Feingold lost to Ron Johnson. As we saw in '10, Republicans cannot control their primaries (i.e. Nevada, Colorado, and Delaware).

I believe his time has past, and it's been a long time since he's been Governor. If Thompson does not win the nominee then the Dems have a very substantial advantage in this race. If Thompson does win, then it's going to be more competitive, but Tommy is going to be very bruised up. The fact that he has two futher right opponets, and Club for Growth against him. Also doesn't help that WI primaries are in September, he may too bruised to take on Baldwin. Baldwin does benefit that Wisconsin is a lean blue state. It'll also help if Scott Walker is on the ballot for re-call. Right now I got this as slight edge for the Democrat assuming that Thompson doesn't survive.

(10-24-11): I don't know if it can get any better for Tammy Baldwin. She pretty much has the Democratic field to herself, giving her an enough time to define & introduce herself to Wisconsin voters. While on the the Republican side it looks like it will be an absolute bloodbath. Former Sen. Russ Feingold lend his endorsement to Baldwin while other Dems are being smart & not challenging her. Her follow WI colleague in the US House Ron Kind making sure she has an easy time to the general & holding that seat. Plus lets hope that the WI Dems can get a successful recall of Scott Walker aswell his Lt. Rebecca Kleefisch. If that happens that'll give a huge boost to Baldwin.

Continue Reading

Tue Oct 25, 2011 at 02:18 PM PDT

'12 Senate Races (Oct-25-11)

by BKGyptian89

This week updates: Hawaii, Missouri, Pennsylvania & Wisconsin

Marquee Races & Ones To Keep An Eye On

Connecticut
Open Seat: (ID) Joe Lieberman retiring
Democrat: Rep. Chris Murphy, Former Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz
Republican: Former WWE Executive Linda McMahon, Former Rep. Chris Shays
Rating: Strong Democratic Hold

Background: (10-10-11) Two top tier recruits on the Democratic side, Chris Murphy & Susan Bysiewicz. On the Republican side you have Former WWE Executive Linda McMahon who got taken to the cleaners by now Sen. Blumenthal. Despite his on occasion distorting his military service he was able to win comfortably by a 55-43 margin. Carrying every county in the state except for the Northwest corner, Litchfield County. Chris Shays survived the blue tide of '06, but eventually the Obama tsunami caught up w/ him in '08 by losing his New York City suburban district in Southwestern Connecticut. Bysiewicz has recently took a few hits in her numbers. Probably do to the fact of her playing musical chairs last year. Running for Governor, then instead running for Attorney General when Blumenthal was running for the open seat left by Chris Dodd's retirement, only come to find out she wasn't even qualified. Also her debacle as State Secretary by calling the very close Gubernatorial race between Dan Malloy & Tom Foley too early. Those things, voters are most likely starting to remember & is what giving Murphy the edge in the primary & the general. Despite her pass stumble this going to be a great primary on the Blue team between two good candidates. Personally I would love to see more women senators elected, but no matter who wins the nod, Democrats shouldn't lose this seat. McMahon is going squash her opponents in the primary w/ her money only to blow it away in the general. Either way it's either going to be Senator-elect Murphy, or Bysiewicz, & so long to Joe Lieberman.

Florida
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson
Challenger: Former. Sen. George LeMieux, Former House Maj. Leader Adam Hasner, Ret. Army Colonel & University Professor Mike McCalister
Rating: Leans Democratic Hold

Background: (10-10-11) I don't know what it is with Bill Nelson. Politicians all over DC would give a leg & arm to be in his position. Either he's a very good politician, or he's been extremely fortunate. I think both. Since being elected to the senate in 2000, Nelson has had the luxery of facing bad challengers. In '00 he faced Bill McCollum, which was a nasty campaign & his toughest to date. Nelson still won pretty comfortably by a 51-46 margin, that's pretty good in a state like Florida. Further proof that McCollum is a bad candidate is him losing to now Gov. Rick Scott in the Gubernatorial primary, Scott went on to barely beat CFO (State Treasurer) Alex Sink by the skin of his teeth. '06 he had an even worst challenger in Fmr. Rep. Katherine Harris, who he just blew out the water! Nelson beat her in places that are Republican friendly. Places such as Pensacola, Panama City, Jacksonville, & Sarasota. I knew when Rick Scott got elected as Governor, Charlie Crist was politically shunned from Tallahassee & Washington GOP'ers, & Jeb Bush ruled out running for the senate, that Nelson had a much clearer path to a third term. Him & Democrats are going to benefit tremendously the fact that Obama is going to make a big push in Florida like almost every presidential candidate does, & that fact that the Dems have the Fair Redistricting in Florida where the GOP legislature in Tallahassee cannot gerrymander Florida's map on a federal & state level anymore. Leaving a good recruit in the wings in 2018 shall he decide to retire. Bill is a very skilled pol & is a fairly moderate progressive. He has the edge & I think he'll win, but it's definitely going to be a close race. If he get's LeMieux who probably be bruised in the primary, he wins with some wiggle room to spare. If it's a far right tea party opponent like Hansner or McCalister, two individuals who support the Paul Ryan budget plan, that will play into Bill's hands in senior heavy populated Florida. Expect Bill to take them to the woodshed. As of right now this a lean hold.

Hawaii
Open Seat: (D) Daniel Akaka retiring
Democrat: Rep. Mazie Hirono , Former Rep. Ed Case
Republican: Former Gov. Linda Lingle
Rating: Likely Democratic Hold

Background: (10-10-11) With Senator Akaka retiring & Hawaii's favorite son on top of the ticket, it's very unlikely the Republicans flip this seat. The candidates on the Democratic side are Rep. Mazie Hirono & worthless asshole Ed Case. We all know what kind of gutter politics Case is going to run in order to try to win the primary that he won't win. We all know the muck he ran up in the that special election for Hawaii's 1st congressional district last year. Knowing that he had no path to being elected, instead of doing the honorable thing by stepping aside for the other Dem Colleen Hanabusa to win, he stayed in race thus splitting the vote. Resulting in Charles Djou the Republican being elected. Granted Hanabusa did win in November, but it just goes to show how much of a dick Case is. My thought is that once campaigning season begins Hirono is going run rough shot, & pull away to clinch the Democratic nod. She'll be the first women senator from Hawaii, as well the first ever Asian-American women in the United States senate.
(10-18-11): So it's official former Gov. Linda Lingle has official thrown her hat for the open seat in Hawaii. Some so call political pundit now has rated this as a "Toss-up" Pleeeeaasse (rolling my eyes).
(10-24-11): Maybe it wasn't wise to overlook Linda Lingle jumping into this race, & dismissing her as a joke because she has made this a race. So much so that I'm changing the rating to a strong to likely hold. At the same time it's no reason to get nervous. 1. It's a big hole in Ed Case chances of being the nominee, & plus most of the state party is behind Hirono. 2. Obama is on top of the ticket. I think Lingle has hit her ceiling & can't get further beyond that mark. I tell you one thing tough, whoever is the Chair of the Democratic Party in Hawaii should vigorously pull all the establishment & every elected official to rally behind Hirono & make her the presumptive nominee.

Indiana*
Incumbent: Republican Sen. Richard Lugar
Challenger(s): Democratic Rep. Joe Donnelly & Republican State Secretary Richard Mourdock
Rating: Leans Republican Hold

Background: (10-10-11) Lugar is in the same boat as Snowe, he's a top target for the far right. His challenger in the primaries is State Tres. Richard Mourdock who is running far to Lugar's right. I think Obama was very lucky to win Indiana in '08. He edged McCain by carrying Indianapolis, but by carrying the Chicago burbs in Northwest Indiana, & the Louisville burbs in Southern Indiana. Indiana is least likely to go blue this time around, but there's a chance that if Lugar goes down that Donnelly can win. So right now to play this safe I'm rating this as lean red.

Maine*
Incumbent: Republican Sen. Olympia Snowe (As of right now)
Challenger: Former Gov. John Baldacci? House Min. Leader Emily Cain? Former Gubernatorial Candidate & Businesswomen Rosa Scarcelli?
Rating: Leans Republican hold

Background: (10-10-11) This has casualty of Tea Party written all over it. Snowe probably knew when Maine elected a tea party governor in 2010 in Paul LePage, she was in troble. Credit given he barely won in a four person race by two points. Still Maine Republicans are in a mood for a more conservative Republican candidate. There alot of If's, What, & Who. Lets start with Who? The Dems need to recruit a top tier challenger. John Baldacci is a great pick up. Now with the If, cause if Snowe is taken down by a more conservative challenger, the Democrats need to have a nominee that could guarantee one of a few pick ups they'll have that night. That make up for likely loses in North Dakota & Nebraska. Now What? Snowe could take the easy way out & just decide to retire, but she already running for re-election. I don't think she'll become a Democrat, do a Crist & turn Independent, or do write-in like Lisa Murkowski if she lose her primary. The Republicans won't have that, they're hell bent on taking the senate on they don't want nothing slowing them down. She might just take a que from Michael Bennet & Arlen Specter (eat your humble pie & accept you loss). I know Markos has wrote alot about Olympia Snowe & the dilemma facing her. As of right now this is a lean hold. Stay tune folks, because this is going to be one to watch!

Massachusetts
Incumbent: Republican Sen. Scott Brown
Challenger: Former Obama Adviser & Consumer Financial Protection advocate Elizabeth Warren
Rating: Toss-Up/Slight Democratic Edge

Backgroud: (10-10-11) This race should'nt even be marque, or competitive. If Martha Coakley just shook hands outside of Fenway Park, and campaigned like she really wanted to be a senator from Massachusetts, then we wouldn't have a Republican sitting in Teddy Kennedy seat. Maybe the Brown win was a blessing disguise, because Liz Warren is a far more better candidate then Coakley. She squashes the notion that Sen. Centerfold is untouchable. She already has Brown shitting in his pants. Also the people of Massachusetts like what they here from her so far. Massachusetts is pretty likely to go blue in '12, but I don't Brown will be able to convince the people to split their tickets. Until this race progresses further I'm going to rate this as a toss up.

(10-18-11): Just barely a month since she launched her senate campaign & so far Liz Warren has raked in a little over 3 mil. Making it very likely for Brown to be burning thru his 10 mil like you can't believe. Plus the report of Brown plagiarising from former Sen. Liddy Dole, make it safe to say it's been a crap month for Sen. Centerfold.

Michigan
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow
Challenger: Former Rep. Pete Hoekstra
Rating: Likely Democratic Hold

Background: (10-10-11) After the red tide of '10 DC pundits believed Debbie Stabenow would be vulnerable. Probably because of Romney's Michigan roots, (assuming he wins the GOP presidential nod). The fact that he was born in Detroit & his father was Governor in the 60's. I beg to differ. 1. That was so long ago that people don't even remember those day when his pops was Govnah. 2. Mitt's "Let Detroit go Bankrupt" comment isn't going to play well in Michigan. 3. Expect Obama to tout what he did to save the auto industry. An industry not just vital to the Motor City, but the entire state of Michigan. Hoekstra is a crazy fuck. He Tried to run hard right for the GOP primary for Governor of Michigan last year. Even though I believe she's going to win this race, expect her to run like she's 10 points down. Got this as a likely hold.

Missouri
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill
Challenger: Former State Treasurer Sarah Steelman, Rep. Todd Aiken
Rating: Toss-Up

Background: (10-10-11) I think we all knew back when Claire beat then-Sen. Jim Talent by a 50-47 margin,who back in '02 barely beat Jean Carnahan, chances were she's going to have to fight for re-election given the swingish nature of Missourah. McCaskill is a smart & savvy politician. I know she not perfect & she goes off the reservation a bit, but by no means is she a Ben Nelson, or Evan Bayh. Guys who intentionally try to screw their own party at every turn they get. She preaches economic populism like her colleague Sherrod Brown from Ohio, & that plays well especially in the Midwest. Depending on who the challenger is, it's going to have and impact on the race. Both candidates are going to give her a run for money. Obviously this is a prime seat that the GOP are eyeing & believe they could pick it up. If she has Todd "bat shit crazy" Aiken, she has a better chance of holding on. If it's Steelman she is gonna have to work for it either way. It also helps that Gov. Nixon is going to be on the ballot with her. She need to hope that Democrats have a strong ticket in Missouri along w/ her & Nixon. So far that seem going in the right direction w/ Fmr. State Auditor & Chairwomen of the Missouri Democratic Party, Susan Montee throwing her hat in the ring for Lt. Gov. Even though I think she has the edge as of right now this is just a pure tossup, to close to call.
(10-24-11): Missouri Republicans are becoming quite nervous, & are starting to pull the alarm. They're having a rough time finding credible candidates for next year elections. Luckily Dems have top tier recruits for '12. Gov. Nixon is most likely a shoe in for reelection. State Party Chair & Fmr. State Auditor Susan Montee is running for Lt. Gov. Chris Koster who switch parties in '07 is running for Attorney General again. Unfortunately State Secretary Robin Carnahan is retiring instead of seeking a likely shoe in for reelection, State Rep. Jason Kander from KC is looking replace her. We all know about Lt Gov. Kinder no need to go there. The two GOP candidates vying to take on McCaskill, Sarah Steelman & Todd Aiken are having awful, matter of fact horrific fund raising numbers. That's probably making McCaskill grinning a bit, but she still polling slightly ahead in polls within the margin of error. A little two close for comfort, but the bright side for Democrat are Republicans are having such crap candidates that even though Obama probably wont win Mizzou, Dems would do better down ballot in the other races.

Montana
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Jon Tester
Challenger: Republican Rep. Denny Rehberg
Rating: Toss-Up

Background: (10-10-11) Tester barely won in '06 what was a good year for Democrats, against a very vulnerable incumbent Sen. Conrad Burns in a 49-48 nail biter. Tester also voted against the DREAM Act showing that he only cares about getting re-elected. He has the strongest challenge in Montana only member in the House of Representatives Danny Rehberg. Rehberg was smart not to vote for the Paul Ryan plan, knowing that Tester was going to beat him over the head w/ it. This race is most likely going to be a toss-up till election day.

Nebraska
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Ben Nelson
Challenger: Atty. Gen. Jon Bruning, State Treasurer Don Stenberg, State Sen. Deb
Fischer
Rating: Leans Republican Gain

Background: (10-10-11) Nelson is the most endangered Democratic incumbent up for re-election. Beltway insider thought that he was vulnarable for in '06 cycle to the possible by then Governor Mike Johanns challenge. Right after Bush was re-elected in '04 he tapped Johanns to be his Ag. Secretary. Nebraska GOP could'nt find a good candidate cause their top choices passed. But now Nelson will not be so lucky. Polls shows him losing to Bruning & Stenburg. His best hope is to have a tea party nutjob, but even still Nebraska is a pretty red state & I don't see people spitting the tickets at the ballot booth unless the GOP nominee is really, & I mean really crazy as fuck. Bruning has loss some steam resulting in Ben Nelson closing the gap. If there's any Democrat I would love to see lose in '12 it's Ben Nelson. He was probably one of those "anonymous Democratic senators" who criticized Obama's tone as of lately towards the GOP as "not being productive" (if anyone could find that artice that would be great!). This is a leans republican gain, not putting this as likely yet.

Nevada
Incumbent: Republican Sen. Dean Heller
Challenger: Rep. Shelly Berkley
Rating: Toss-up/Leans Democratic Gain

Background: (10-10-11) This is one of the few seats that the Dems can pick up in a map that's let's favorable to them, where they don't have luxury of playing offense, and have to defend 23 seats. With the John Ensign marital affair scandal that came too surface in 2009, he at first still was going too run for reelection. Then he decided not to run because he was going to get crush either in the primary or the general. Due to pressure to retire from the GOP senate leadership, he made way for then-Rep. Dean Heller & decided not to seek re-election. Facing the prospect that he was going to face ethic charges he resigned from the senate, & Dean Heller was appointed by Gov. Sandoval. Challenger Shelly Berkley is a formidable opponate, but she has had to endure some bumps in the road as of lately, involving her husband's medical practice. Personally I would had preferred Atty. Gen. Catherine Cortez-Mastos. Senate age wise she's young, attractive, ambitious, but most of all she's Latina. Having a Democratic Latina senator from a state that is 1/4 Hispanic would a good cast mate for the Dems. There would had been no way that Heller would had beaten her, especially with the Democratic machine that Harry Reid has built in Nevada over the years. But still Berkley is a good prime recruit for Team Blue, and Mastos is a prime recruit waiting in the wings, if a possible Reid retirement happens in 2016. Giving that Heller voted for the Ryan budget twice, It'll come back to bite him. The fact Reid has built a good state establishment for the Dems from the ground up, is a plus for the Berkley. I still believe the Dems have a good chance of gaining this seat.

New Jersey
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez
Challenger: State Senate Min. Leader Tom Kean, Jr? Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno?
Rating: Likely Democratic Hold

Background: (10-10-11) I had to put this race on here 1. because I live in Jersey & 2. NJ politics is quite interesting. Menendez became senator when Corzine was elected Governor of New Jersey back in '05, & tapped then Rep. Menendez to be his successor. In '06 he faced quite a challenge from the State Minority Leader in the in the state senate Thomas Kean Jr. Son of popular Governor in the 80's Tom Kean Sr. But when it was all said & done Menendez mopped up Kean Jr. 53-43 margin. Menendez had to leap some hurdles. Some were partisan, some were political, & some were ethical. Specifically by at the time US Attorney for New Jersey Chris Christie. There's no love lost between two. In '06 Christie tried to open & issue investigations & subpoenas against him in his politcal dealings in the Garden State, nearly derailing his campaign in a heat race with Kean Jr. Just two months before the elections. A blatantly partisan hit by Christie, which was an attempt to raise his stock within the GOP ranks in Jersey. Before he was in the Senate, his congressional house district comprises of New Jersey's two largest cities in the two largest counties. Newark in Essex County & Jersey City in Hudson County. Op-eds in the Times & Star-Ledger proclaim him as running Hudson County as a politcal machine. Still his foes who've alleged corruption have still failed to generate a single indictment. However, Menendez looks good for another term. Menendez is a strong voice in the US Senate, in which he was a staunch voice for the DREAM Act & the Zadroga Bill. He is probably New Jersey most powerful politician. In 2001 he coordinated Jim McGreevey gubernatorial campaign, as well as state legislative races in New Jersey. Effectively ending Republican rule in Trenton & establishing a Democratic trifecta, resulting in Dems controlling the State House & Senate. So far no major canidate has step up. I doubt Kean Jr. wants another shot (probably waiting for '14) whoever he faces Menendez has the upper hand as New Jersey is likely to go blue in '12.
(10-18-11): Blah, blah, blah. It's that same old story again. That story that suggest a Republican can win a federal statewide race in Jersey. Yet Roberto is still crushing his opponents. For some reason Garden State Dems seem to lead in polls, or labeled "potentially vulnerable". Only to win there race weather it's close, or a double digit blowout. At the end they win. It's like Garden state Dems are Lucy with the football, & the Repubs are like Charlie Brown always landing on their asses. Just because folks in NJ the state I live in, would tolerate electing a GOP Governor at times as a balance to our Democratic controlled legislature, doesn't mean they would elect a Republican to the US Senate. Nor the White House. It's something that national Repubs can't seem to understand. Just let them keep believing that pipe dream.

New Mexico
Open Seat: (D) Jeff Bingaman retiring
Democrat: Rep. Martin Heinrich, State Auditor Hector Balderas
Republican: Former Rep. Heather Wilson, Lt. Governor John Sanchez
Rating: Leans Democratic Hold

Background: (10-10-11) Two very competitive primaries on both sides, which will lead to a competitive general. Heinrich & Balderas are the candidates on the Demoractic side of them have very bright futures, & are quite handsome individuals. Obviously & rightly so the DSCC are not going to take side in this race. Giving that you have a Hispanic candidate, in a Hispanic heavy state. Heather Wilson tried to run for Domenici open seat in '08, but lost to a more conservative challenger. Expect the same thing to happen to her again. She's not a favorite for the likes of the Tea Party Express, Club For Growth & Redstate crowd. Most likely they going to roll w/ Lt. Gov. Sanchez. The thing is the Dems have two good recruits, so who ever wins the primary will have an advantage for the general due to the fact that New Mexico leans blue.

Ohio
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown
Challenger: State Treasurer Josh Mandel? Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor?
Rating: Leans Democratic Hold

Background: (10-10-11) In '06 Brown pick the perfect time to run for the senate when took on Mike DeWine. Who was the second most endangered incumbent senator that year, right behind Rick Santorum. also back in '06 then term limit incumbent Bob Taft was very unpopular, which resulted in Ted Strickland elected as Governor. Sherrod Brown toughest race to date was back in '94  with Newt Gingrich Republican Revolution. Brown eked out a 49-46 victory. Ever since then he has won pretty comfortably, but '12 he gonna have to fight. Brown has alot going for him, recents poll shows him running double digits among his likeliest opponents right now. He preaches that oh so good economic populism that play well in Ohio. Expect Brown to have the inside track in this race. As of now this is as a lean hold.

Pennsylvania
Incumbent: Democrtic Sen. Bob Casey, Jr.
Challenger: Fmr. US House candidate Tim Burns, Businessman Steve Welch
Rating: Likely Democratic Hold

Background: (10-10-11) The Casey name is like gold in the Keystone State. It's like what the Kennedy's are to Massachusetts, the Carnahan's in Missouri, Coumo's to New York, or the Landrieu's to Louisiana. Alot Democrats don't like his position on abortion, but beside that he's a moderate progressive, overall he a good team player for senate Dems. He doesn't go haywire or is a thorn in the side. Republicans just cannot find a top tier in this race, so I don't want to get confident & put this as a strong hold so instead I'm going to rate this as likely Democratic hold.
(10-24-11): Apparently the GOP in Pennsylvania can't find a good candidate to take on Bob Casey. These individuals who've declared themselves in the race are just waiting for an ass whooping. Tim Burns who lost twice two now Rep. Mark Critz in '10 one in a special election & then in the general. Another candidate is a business man name Steve Welch. One candidate that I'm surprise that the GOP haven't been able to recruit is Fmr. Governor & the first Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge. They tried to in '10 but it didn't work. He the only challenger to Bob Casey that could make this race competitive.

Texas
Open Seat: (R) Kay Bailey Hutchison retiring
Democrat: Former Lt. Gen. Ricardo Sanchez
Republican: Lt. Gov David Dewhurst, State Solicitor General Ted Cruz
Rating: Likely Republican Hold

Background: (10-10-11) Lets face it the Democrats don't have a strong enough bench in Texas. Ever since the 90's the Republicans have dominated state politics. Starting with George W. Bush beating the incumbent Ann Richards for Governor of Texas in '94. That office eventually propelled W. to the White House in '00. Also that same year Bush was elected as Governor, Kay Bailey won a full term to the senate, & ever since then the Republican have been able to held Texas in a political headlock. Turning Texas into a deep red state with a few blue oasis. A state where for decades Democrats were pretty much the only party in Texas, & the rest of the South, before Nixon & the Republican in the 60's began the Southern Strategy. The reason why I put this race on this list even though it's not going to be competitive in the general, is the primary on the Republican side. Between Dewhurst & Cruz, the potential of a establishment candidate being knockoff by a tea party candidate. So far Cruz stock is rising. The NRSC head by Texas Senator Jon Cornyn is not taking sides in this, just like Patty Murray & the DSCC w/ the race in New Mexico. Neither party wants to piss off Hispanic voters, especially the Republcans. Democrats will be competitive in Texas one day, but our time is not now. Either way I have this as a likely hold for the GOP.

Utah*
Incumbent: Republican Sen. Orrin Hatch
Challenger: Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson?
Rating: Likely Republican Hold

Background: (10-10-11) I don't believe that a Democrat can win a state wide office in a state like Utah, especially in a Presidential year w/ the possibily that Romney may be the GOP candidate for president. Rep. Jim Matheson is the only Democrat in the Utah delegation, & the most electable. Hatch got a lucky break when Rep. Jason Cheffetz decided not to run for senate. Hatch is still vulnerable to a primary challenge. Also Jim Matheson has'nt decide on what he's going to do. Until then I'm having this as a likely hold for the incumbent party.

Virginia
Open Seat: (D) Jim Webb retiring
Democrat: Former Gov. & DNC Chair Tim Kaine
Republican: Former Sen. George Allen
Rating: Toss-Up (assuming that Allen wins the GOP nod)

Background: (10-10-11) Just incase I need to refresh your memory Macaca should have been the end of his political career. Allen was a likely Republican front runner for the GOP presidential nominee for '08. He went on to lose to Webb. Apparently he has a good shot to win his old job back. Tim Kaine who Democrats had bust their ass to get him in this race and finally did, Is very popular in Virginia and was recently Governor. This is going to come the to two things. 1. Who's on the GOP presidential ticket. 2. The tea party effect. First if Allen does win the GOP nod he needs to wish for the Republicans to have somebody on the ticket that can attract voters in rural VA. 2.If you look at my review for Wisconsin, no GOP establishment candidate has the nominee too him or herself. Remember the 2012 election does not begin until the Iowa caucus. So right now establishment GOP candidates are in a good spot, because people are not paying that much attention to their senate races. So Allen can breathe easy for right now. Better believe once the campaign season begins alot of Tea Party candidates will generate traction, and take down establishment candidates. You already know of their names of those who cost their party senate seats last year, and those who won but GOP had to spend a few more bucks then they would have like. If Allen loses in the primaries then this is an absolute hold for the Dems, if he does survive, and depending on how he does, then race is a toss-up.

Wisconsin
Open Seat: (D) Herb Kohl retiring
Democrat: Rep. Tammy Baldwin
Republican: Former Gov. Tommy Thompson, Fmr Rep. Mark Neumann, Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald
Prediction: Leans Democratic Hold

Background: (10-10-11) Obviously with the political climate that been going on in Wisconsin this is going to be one of the closet watch senate races on election night. Democrats just like all over the country got bulldozed in 2010, and in a result we lost control of alot of legislatures in the senate and house. In Wisconsin Democrats lost the Governors Mansion, State Senate, and House. Walker and the GOP began their anti-union work, but not without backlash and becoming within one seat away in losing the state senate in the recall elections in July. Tammy Baldwin is a prime recruit for the Dems. A great progressive fighter, and shall she win not only would she become the first female senator from the state of Wisconsin, but also the first ever LGBT senator elected to the United States Senate. This race is going to depend on who is the GOP nominee. Fmr. Gov. Tommy Thompson is the frontrunner, but he does not have the nominee to himself. Honestly his best shot was to run against Russ Feingold, and he passed. As a result Feingold lost to Ron Johnson. As we saw in '10, Republicans cannot control their primaries (i.e. Nevada, Colorado, and Delaware). I believe his time has past, and it's been a long time since he's been Governor. If Thompson does not win the nominee then the Dems have a very substantial advantage in this race. If Thompson does win, then it's going to be more competitive, but Tommy is going to be very bruised up. The fact that he has two futher right opponets, and Club for Growth against him. Also doesn't help that WI primaries are in September, he may too bruised to take on Baldwin. Baldwin does benefit that Wisconsin is a lean blue state. It'll also help if Scott Walker is on the ballot for re-call. Right now I got this as slight edge for the Democrat assuming that Thompson doesn't survive.
(10-24-11): I don't know if it can get any better for Tammy Baldwin. She pretty much has the Democratic field to herself, giving her an enough time to define & introduce herself to Wisconsin voters. While on the the Republican side it looks like it will be an absolute bloodbath. Former Sen. Russ Feingold lend his endorsement to Baldwin while other Dems are being smart & not challenging her. Her follow WI colleague in the US House Ron Kind making sure she has an easy time to the general & holding that seat. Plus lets hope that the WI Dems can get a successful recall of Scott Walker aswell his Lt. Rebecca Kleefisch. If that happens that'll give a huge boost to Baldwin.

West Virginia
Incumbent: Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin
Challenger: Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito?
Rating: Likely Democratic Hold

Background: (10-12-11) With Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin winning the Gubernatorial special election earlier this month, gave a big boost to Manchin re-election prospects. The Repubs keep doing the same thing over in over of trying to link a West Virginia Democrat who running state wide to Obama. Can you say one trick pony? I don't think Shelley Moore Capito is going to take on Manchin, she probably waiting in '14 to take on Rockefeller. Manchin is still very popular in the Mountain State. If Capito decides not to pull the trigger & the GOP can't find a good canidate then this race may go down to the basement & "not see the light of day". If she goes ahead & give it a run then it becomes lean democrat to a competitive race.

Continue Reading
You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.

RSS

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site