At the risk of sounding hypocritical, since I did argue recently that we should not pay much attention to snapshot polls ("Snapshot Polls and the Popular Vote:Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics" http://msa4.wordpress.com/ ), I post below the latest poll numbers from RealClearPolitics.
Why? Because as we approach this Saturday's DNC meeting, the Clintons’ arguments have become increasingly implausible and even bizarre, depending on a mythical popular vote, and a claim that not only will she win the general election, but that she is (already) winning the general election, at least according to Bill. Of course one can’t be certain this far out about how things will play out in the general election. And one certainly can’t use poll results as close as those found below to guarantee anything.
All of this might matter little if some of Hillary's supporters weren’t being led to believe that the race is being stolen from her. A mythology that Hillary "was robbed," if it takes hold, will be very bad for the Party, and for the Party's chances in November.
McCain and Co. will tell you that the problem with the Iraq War has been in its execution. The war was not the problem, just bad management. Yet, contra McCain, others insist that had we known then, what we know now, we would not have gone to war. But the fact is that many of us did know, or at least knew enough, and were angry and demoralized because there was nothing we could do to stop the war. Through poor judgment or political calculation (or both), our representatives in the House and Senate voted to authorize Bush’s war on October 11, 2002. Just five five months later, on March 18, 2003, the war began. And now, five years later, in some sort of bizarre parody of Churchill, we have McCain calling for victory and promising never to surrender. (Never surrender to what or to whom?)
At the time I wrote many drafts of op-ed pieces that I never bothered to polish or edit for publication. Quite frankly, I thought that they would do little, and just gave up on them. A correct assessment at the time. However, I now offer one from October 1st, 2002, exactly as it was written. Why? Because as many of us as possible now need to say, in as many ways as possible, "we told you so." And that in this election, we are going use our own good judgment, and elect leaders who will end a war that should never have begun.
Trying to do my small part to help begin to unify the Democratic Party, I had promised myself that I would halt criticism of Clinton in print and on the Web. There is, after all, so much to be said about McCain and Co. But this evening I find myself unable to carry through on this pledge. There are two significant reasons.
First, I have grown increasingly concerned that Senator Clinton’s continual references to the so-called popular vote may end up damaging Senator Obama’s candidacy.....
Hillary’s most consistent supporters have been folks over 50, especially women over 50. With her statement about RFK's assassination, and her bizarre "apologetic" explanation (namely, I was thinking about Teddy and so I mentioned Bobby’s assassination), she has lost a substantial number of these supporters. I will not say all. I will not say those closest to her. But I will say, a very significant number. Most importantly, in terms of the race, many superdelegates in this age cohort, who may have been leaning her way, will be looking around for the nearest Exit sign. Ditto for those who were in favor of placing her in the VP slot.
Hold the Presses. John McCain has begun considering VP candidates. From the New York Times, May 22nd, Adam Nagourney reporting, "Charlie Crist and Bobby Jindal, both governors, and Mitt Romney, a onetime rival for the nomination, are all set to meet with John McCain this weekend." (Editorial sidebar: So this means that we might have "Mac and Crist in ‘08," which could do wonders for Mac with a certain demographic, or "Mac and Mitt in ’08," for help with the baseball loving trucker vote. On the other hand, "Mac and Jindal in ’08," no way. The Jindals make up too small a percentage of the electorate.)
But this is not the really BIG news. A high placed, anonymous source, reports that Hillary Clinton has decided on her choice for VP. And it ain’t Barack.
Today, as the severity of Senator Kennedy’s condition became more apparent, I found myself, once again, back in seventh grade. I am in a large hall, waiting in line. I am not sure what the line is for, and for some reason the line can’t seem to form properly. We seem to be waiting to go into an auditorium. Words are migrating from student to student. It is November 22nd, 1963. The President has been shot. Next to me stands a sweet looking young girl. Shoulder length dirty blond hair. Delicate features. And she says, "I hope that he dies." This was the President who had taken us through the Cuban Missile Crisis, who spoke of civil rights, and who had two young children. And she wanted him dead. Her hatred was palpable and irrational. In retrospect, given the times, I have always wondered whether her enmity was due to the fact that he was a Catholic, and one who supported civil rights.
On this day, May 20th, in which Obama will win a majority of pledged elected delegates, I would like to offer a dozen reasons, a baker's dozen, for why Barack Obama will be the next president. I know that this is a difficult time for Clinton supporters, but we have a candidate who can win in November. Let's do it! (I have posted this on My DD also.)
To say that Americans have had a love affair with technology is the most humdrum of cliches. The idea that new technologies will not only make life easier for us, but will help bring us together as a people, is not new theme in American folklore. Long before there was the Web, or the radio, or even a developed telephone network, American philosophers and social critics dreamed of how new technologies might transform us, make us into a community in all of our diversity. In 1892, as a relatively young man, George Herbert Mead, a pragmatic philosopher in the American grain, wrote a letter to his wife’s parents. It’s worth quoting.
Now that Obama appears to have it wrapped up, let's hope that he moves on to swiftly selecting a VP who can really help him. I would argue that Jim Webb could do so, and there are reasons to believe that he is Obama's choice. But there is another (secret, thus far) choice if Webb is not selected. http://msa4.wordpress.com
Here are a dozen, guaranteed, money back reasons why John McCain won’t be the next president. (I can only offer a limited-time, money-back guarantee, since unfortunately I can’t control world events.)
Terry McAuliffe, Clinton’s campaign director, responded earlier this evening to a direct question by Keith Olbermann regarding Hillary’s contradictory statements on Michigan. He declared that it is okay for Hillary to claim votes/delegates from Michigan, in spite of her earlier commitment to discount the election, because the other candidates made a political decision to take their names off the ballot. (So much for honoring the DNC’s request.) So it seems that her change of heart is their problem, not hers. Wow! (Btw, why did she stay on the ballot for an election that she claimed would not count?)
For more, "Hillary and the Genie Do Florida and Michigan: A very short play in one act"
[It’s the middle of the night—the usual time. A bedside phone rings in a rustic motel in a small town in Kentucky. Hillary Clinton answers.]
Genie: Is this Hillary Clinton?
HC: Yes...yes, I am.
Genie: I’m with Genie Local 9, a hard-working, white, American local of the Genie National Brotherhood. Getting involved in politics is against our rules. But every rule has an exception. We have been moved by your pleas to the Democratic Party Establishment to allow the voices of the good citizens of Michigan and Florida to be heard. We will grant your wish. The Florida and Michigan delegations will be seated based on the results of the outlawed primary elections.