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Posting History for New Deal democrat

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Blame President Clinton for Compromise? Remember, it's Speaker Gingrich, not Speaker Foley
There is a diary currently on the Rec list that has a few typos in it. I am returning to make a special guest appearance in order to correct the typos so that it reads accurately. Putting aside ...
New Deal democrat 12/20/2012 24 5 - -
A 2009 Foreboding fulfilled: Obama "is plotting politically feasible ways to reduce Social Security"
The below is a piece I wrote in March 2009, reproduced almost in its entirety, entitled "Did Obama lay bare his agenda to David Brooks?" I have considered republishing it for many months, but ...
New Deal democrat 07/12/2011 41 28 1 157
An upbeat economic diary for Thanksgiving
In the last couple of months, momentum has been building in just about every precursor for stronger job growth. Real retail sales, real GDP, pesonal income and spending, and just this morning a ...
New Deal democrat 11/24/2010 74 36 - 69
NY Times interactive graphic lets you fix the deficit
This is a brief diary. Here is a worthwhile diversion for a Sunday: the New York Times has an ...
New Deal democrat 11/14/2010 632 450 24 209
How the Summer economic Slowdown Doomed the Democrats
I took a break during the home stretch of the election season -- discussing the economy by that time would only have been divisive and a distraction from the more important work of the election ...
New Deal democrat 11/08/2010 18 23 - 55
Obama vs. FDR: The forgotten part of "Relief, Recovery, and Reform"
Back in January 2009, even before President Obama was sworn in, Bonddad and I wrote a four part series ...
New Deal democrat 08/28/2010 550 249 20 101
An Open Letter to Congress: *LOAN* the States the money
I certainly hope you all had a wonderful Fourth of July recess, and enjoyed the long summer holiday with your family, friends, and wealthy campaign contributors. If I might, though, I'd ...
New Deal democrat 07/12/2010 44 32 - 42
June jobs report: -225k (+100k ex-Census) 9.5% unemployment
June nonfarm payrolls declined by (- 125,000). Of that, (- 225,000) was laid off census workers, meaning that hiring for the month of June totalled +100,000 workers. This is the sixth ...
New Deal democrat 07/02/2010 199 43 - 54
The Housing Bust is nowhere near over
At one level, the global Great Recession has been about the bursting of a tremendous housing bubble that saw a doubling in house prices in only 5 years, and close to 3 million houses being ...
New Deal democrat 06/22/2010 221 146 2 66
The November elections will turn on Jobs, Income - and the price of Oil!
In a recent article in the New Yorker, economist James Surowiecki argued that it doesn&...
New Deal democrat 05/24/2010 26 17 1 181
Will Europe 'Greece' the skids to double-dip recession?
Prof. James Hamilton of Econbrowser notes that: The curious thing is that [stock and commodity] graphs [...
New Deal democrat 05/21/2010 27 26 1 39
Income Stagnation:  the greatest threat to recovery
The most acute threat to the economic recovery that has begun is the same as the biggest chronic problem for the middle/working classes for the last 45 years: a lack of real wage growth. Only twice ...
New Deal democrat 05/17/2010 180 165 7 101
Happy Days Aren't Here Again
There is a fundamental point that I have made in nearly all of my economic writings over the last year. Because that point is frequently missed, as it has not been the focal point of my commentary, ...
New Deal democrat 05/11/2010 267 165 - 32
290,000 Jobs Growth in April, 573,000 since December!
The April Nonfarm payrolls were just released, and they were gangbusters! 290,000 new jobs were added. Only 66,000 of those were census jobs, meaning that 224,000 non-census jobs were created.
New Deal democrat 05/07/2010 244 140 1 42
Warren Buffett: "The economy is starting to move"
Warren Buffett's holding company, Berkshire Hathaway, owns a variety of "meat and potatoes" companies, from furniture to utility to railroads. Thus Warren Buffet has a unique perch from which to ...
New Deal democrat 05/04/2010 81 22 - 34
GDP Report confirms more Job Growth likely
The first quarter advance GDP report was released last Friday. At +3.2%, the report showed an amount of growth that had been expected. As more complete data is available, is is usual there will ...
New Deal democrat 05/03/2010 20 36 - 231
Congress: Establish a new WPA *NOW*!
"One gets the sense that elites have moved on, that the recovery is here and the [ ] crisis is over" says Atrios reacting to news ...
New Deal democrat 04/30/2010 45 66 1 282
Forecasters: more Job growth, unemployment; Asia now the engine
One the phrases both Bonddad and I have been using is that in this global recovery, the American ...
New Deal democrat 04/26/2010 40 50 - 45
State Tax Revenues probably hit bottom in Q1 2010
Last week the Rockefeller Institute issued its report on state finances [pdf] for the ...
New Deal democrat 04/23/2010 43 16 1 184
Strong Job Growth Looks Likely for the Rest of 2010
In the last couple of weeks, we have gotten some economic data that is so strong it is almost scary. For example, just yesterday March Leading Economic Indicators were reported up 1.4%, meaning for ...
New Deal democrat 04/20/2010 369 288 6 210
The Gilded Recovery is *Increasing* the Maldistribution of Wealth
The measures chosen to counter the onset of a "Great Depression 2" are having the desired affect of increasing economic activity, and they have saved - and finally, actually created - jobs in the ...
New Deal democrat 04/14/2010 52 41 2 58
Will Rising Oil Prices Strangle the Recovery?
Back in January, I wrote that this year could be divided into two parts, the first half which would ...
New Deal democrat 04/12/2010 163 78 2 81
The Recovery isn't "Jobless" any more!
March nonfarm payrolls were just released. +162,000 jobs were added in March. Subtracting 48,000 Census jobs, the economy still added 114,000 jobs! January was revised up +14,000, and February ...
New Deal democrat 04/02/2010 280 84 - 44
The Recovery probably isn't "Jobless" any more (except for Construction)
This week is probably going to end with some good news about employment. When nonfarm payrolls are released on Friday, almost everybody expects it to be a positive number. As I type this, ...
New Deal democrat 03/29/2010 276 148 3 41
The Bifurcated Recovery
John Edwards used to campaign about the difference between the "two Americas." Indeed, 8 months after GDP bottomed out, there is such a stark bifurcation between the American industrial and ...
New Deal democrat 03/01/2010 193 171 8 55
Mr. President, no *Real* Democrat is "agnostic" about Social Security
Last week President Obama said that he will be "agnostic" as to any ...
New Deal democrat 02/16/2010 1187 487 18 126
The "Gilded Recovery" is still (just barely) Jobless
The bleeding of jobs during the Great Recession continued, albeit just barely in January, as the economy subtracted - 20,000 jobs. :The relatively good news is that the unemployment rate declined ...
New Deal democrat 02/05/2010 47 26 - 31
Consumer Savings and the "Gilded Recovery"
The personal income and spending reports yesterday were about as good as could be hoped for in one month's data in the current environment: spending was up enough to keep the expansion going, income ...
New Deal democrat 02/02/2010 24 11 - 10
GDP growth of 5.7% ----> JOBS!
The advanced estimate of 4th Quarter 2009 GDP has just been released, indicating that the economy grew at a rate of 5.7% in the last three months of last year. While 3.4%of that was related to the ...
New Deal democrat 01/29/2010 423 215 4 118
The 2010 Economy:  Gilded Recovery vs. Double-Dip (and Oil)
As we begin 2010, with the cliff-diving declines of earlier 2009 behind us, and most economists agreeing that the Recession bottomed out sometime after June, the biggest issue before us is whether ...
New Deal democrat 01/19/2010 28 23 - 42
Paul Krugman: Brilliant Economist, Lousy Forecaster
Yesterday there was a front page article here touting the latest prognostication of Paul Krugman as Holy Writ, entitled " Don't be Tricked by the Blip ." This piece stated as ...
New Deal democrat 01/05/2010 209 57 - 88
The Recovery may not be "Jobless" any longer
A few months ago, Paul Krugman wrote that "the fact that the economy may be technically in recovery is irrelevant" because the decisive metrics are jobs and wages. That may be behind ...
New Deal democrat 12/21/2009 423 292 13 250
Report:  Industry IS in V-shaped Recovery
... but with fits and starts. This morning the Federal Reserve reported that: Industrial production increased 0.8 percent in November after having been unchanged in October. ...
New Deal democrat 12/15/2009 45 22 1 62
A "Jobs Summit" day Report Card on Jobs and the Economy
With potential steep losses in next year's elections, the jobless situation is focusing the concentration of Washington's Village democrats marvelously, via a "Jobs Summit" today. Better late ...
New Deal democrat 12/03/2009 29 20 - 77
In Which I do the Unthinkable
(...taking deep breaths ...) You may have noticed, there are one or two diarists who occasionally hit the Rec list who have diametrically opposed views to mine about the direction of the ...
New Deal democrat 11/12/2009 392 524 11 129
October payrolls:  Good news and Bad news
October nonfarm payrolls were reported at -190,000. That's the headline number. It is a better number than any unrevised numbers in over a year. The details of the report indicate ...
New Deal democrat 11/06/2009 69 22 - 42
Democrats SHOULD cheer 3.5% GDP growth
I don't buy for one second that the path to Democratic victory in 2010 is to bewail the state of the economy -- an economy that will have been under their charge for nearly two years. Rather, the ...
New Deal democrat 10/29/2009 478 170 7 68
"The Growing Case for a Jobless Recovery"
Although we'll probably find out Thursday that GDP in the 3rd Quarter probably rose about 3%, already this economic Expansion has probably resulted in more layoffs than either of the two ...
New Deal democrat 10/27/2009 62 21 - 39
The Recovery may not be "Jobless" for long
The criticism that the phrase "jobless recovery" is a contradiction in terms has a lot of merit, as was recently written ...
New Deal democrat 10/19/2009 618 322 15 57
The Surprise about Job Losses during the Great Recession
Last week Calculated Risk posted a summary of ...
New Deal democrat 10/07/2009 57 41 - 129
A Graph that is Worth 1000 Words
I came across this graph at Prof. Brad DeLong's website :
New Deal democrat 09/22/2009 18 28 - 31
Jobs:  Employers are Waiting to See if the Recovery is Sustained
It has been 4 1/2 months since Bonddad and I said that the turn in many economic indicators suggested that the Recession might be near ending. Just about all economists agree now that the ...
New Deal democrat 09/19/2009 243 36 1 32
This Recession is Over
Back in the gloomy days of last December, I wrote that an Obama economic recovery was possible in the second half of 2009 :
New Deal democrat 08/29/2009 264 108 4 229
The Case for a V-shaped Jobs Recovery III: pent-up consumer demand
In this 3 part series, I am examining the mounting evidence that contrary to the accepted wisdom that we will have a "jobless recovery" where GDP turns up anemically but unemployment stubbornly ...
New Deal democrat 08/18/2009 92 21 1 37
"Put the Jam on the Bottom Shelf where the Little Man can Reach it" NOW!
"Put the jam on the bottom shelf so the little man can reach it," Sen. Ralph Yarborough used to say in the 1950s and 60s, when Texas ...
New Deal democrat 08/15/2009 26 37 - 250
The Case for a V shaped Jobs Recovery II:  Employers cut too deeply
It is almost universally received wisdom that when the turn comes, we will have a "jobless recovery" where GDP turns up anemically, but unemployment stubbornly rises, just like after the last two ...
New Deal democrat 08/11/2009 23 19 - 24
The Case for a V-shaped Jobs Recovery I: The Song of a Dead Black Swan
It seems almost universally received wisdom that there will be a "jobless recovery" or a continuing "jobs recession" where GDP turns up anemically, but unemployment stubbornly rises. I too have ...
New Deal democrat 08/08/2009 41 15 1 35
The Real Reason Unemployment in this Recession has Skyrocketed
New Deal democrat 07/28/2009 416 373 19 158
The State of the Recession, July 4 2009
In an interview with with Paul Krugman last week, ABC news reported: "I would not be surprised if ...
New Deal democrat 07/04/2009 59 16 2 109
The Global Wage Crisis
Economic columnist Henry C. K. Liu of the Asia Times makes a crucial point: despite the reams of ink spilled over the "...
New Deal democrat 06/05/2009 49 52 3 26
No Sustained Economic Growth without Real Wage Growth
Wage growth, currently running at about 3% YoY and declining quickly, stinks. In fact, only twice in the last 45 years has there been real wage growth (i.e., in excess of the inflation rate)...
New Deal democrat 05/21/2009 45 43 5 131
Obama Administration announces plan to regulate derivatives
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner just announced that Today, ... the Obama Administration proposes a ...
New Deal democrat 05/13/2009 194 193 3 43
Job losses and Recovery
The BLS reported this morning that in April the economy ...
New Deal democrat 05/08/2009 20 15 - 38
The Recession may be Bottoming right now
The BLS reported this morning that new jobless claims declined to 601,000 in the last week. That is the lowest weekly report since January. The 4 week moving average also declined to 637,000.
New Deal democrat 05/07/2009 77 18 1 37
Average Americans will be harmed even by a SUCCESSFUL Banking Bailout
There has been a plethora of discussion about the relative merits of the Banking Bailouts vs. Receivership/"Nationalisation." In the process, a crucial effect of the Bailouts has been ...
New Deal democrat 04/20/2009 47 36 5 40
Unemployment and the 2010/2012 Elections
Unemployment is a lagging indicator. Historically, it has continued to rise straight through to the end of recessions. The "jobless recoveries" from the 1990 and 2001 recessions were even ...
New Deal democrat 04/13/2009 42 21 1 35
For the Economy, it's Springtime during an Ice Age
On this Easter/Passover weekend while we are enjoying the blossoming of spring, Robert Reich ...
New Deal democrat 04/11/2009 39 29 1 22
Wealthy estates get help, sick children get abandoned
Sometimes the inequity of our governing classes reaches such mindboggling proportions, I want to rant like the insane King Lear. As you probably already know, 2010 is the year to die is you are ...
New Deal democrat 04/03/2009 33 22 - 19
Did Obama lay bare his agenda to David Brooks?
Over at Open Left , diarist Frankly0 appears to have uncovered political dynamite. S/he makes a strong circumstantial case that ...
New Deal democrat 03/30/2009 118 23 - 38
A Progressive Manifesto for True Banking Reform
In a diary a few days ago I responded to a challenge to describe an alternative to the approach Obama has chosen with Larry Summers and William Geithner. What I said in a comment there, with ...
New Deal democrat 03/26/2009 14 17 - 17
The Obama/Geithner plan -- attempting a balanced view
There are three interconnected but different questions about the Obama/Geithner banking plan: (1) will it work? (2) is it the most politically feasible plan? And (3) is it fair? Initially ...
New Deal democrat 03/24/2009 26 28 1 19
Can you handle a little economic good news?
If you can handle a sliver of good economic news, I've got some for you. All of the recent data has shown an economy in free-fall, but the collapse that started with the shock ...
New Deal democrat 03/12/2009 74 40 - 22
I see your Milton Friedman, and I raise you James Madison
This video of Milton Friedman espousing the goodness of greed is making the rounds again:
New Deal democrat 03/04/2009 30 28 1 31
CNBC's Rick Santelli: I oppose all bailouts
Last week an on-air rant by CNBC's Rick Santelli, in which he called for a "Chicago Tea Party" to the cheers of futures traders at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, generated a lot of heat, not just ...
New Deal democrat 03/03/2009 42 10 - 20
Obama:  I won't propose the plan I know will work!
This comes lock, stock and barrel from one of the biggest financial blogs, Calculated Risk . President Obama gave an interview to ABC which ...
New Deal democrat 02/10/2009 113 35 2 32
The Parable of the Talents (2009 edition)
“A man went on a journey, and summoned his slaves and entrusted his property to them. To one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one, each according to his ability. Then he ...
New Deal democrat 02/04/2009 15 22 - 46
I Don't Want to Bail You Out
Nothing personal. I'm sure you are a perfectly decent person, beloved by family and friends, doing your best to get by. And I don't want you to starve. Or to go homeless in freezing ...
New Deal democrat 01/23/2009 82 38 2 24
Report: The Worst housing slump since the Great Depression
This morning the Census Bureau reported housing starts for December 2008. The number, 550,000 units, was considerably ...
New Deal democrat 01/22/2009 38 30 2 81
The Deflationary Recession of 2009 isn't just about Oil
When I diaried last week that we were in the midst of the biggest deflation since the Great Depression, I was met by a number of naysayers. One said I was a "chicken little" although regular ...
New Deal democrat 01/20/2009 32 27 - 18
Report: biggest decline in prices since the Great Depression
In the next 60-90 days, we will know whether or not we have started the first full-fledged deflationary wage-price spiral in over 70 years. If that happens, it will make the entire crisis up ...
New Deal democrat 01/16/2009 608 399 22 133
WHY are taxpayers bailing out Cerberus Capital Management?
Last week President Bush announced that you and I are loaning private equity fund Cerberus ...
New Deal democrat 12/24/2008 21 24 1 32
Black September: Why the economy suddenly went into free fall
On December 3, John Bergstrom of Bergstrom Automotive, a major auto dealer, appeared on CNBC and said , On about ...
New Deal democrat 12/18/2008 315 430 102 91
The Deflationary Bust accelerates to pre-WW2 levels
Consumer prices in November fell ( - 1.9%) non-seasonally adjusted. The YoY rate of inflation is now only 1.1%. In the last 4 months, prices have fallen ( - 3.4%), or at an annual rate of ( - 13.2%)
New Deal democrat 12/16/2008 304 163 9 85
In their own Words, The Hypocrisy of the Gang of 18
The Gang of 18 Hypocrites are those 18 Senate GOPers who voted "Yes" to give $700,000,000,000 taxpayer dollars to Wall Street banksters with essentially no strings attached, but voted "No" to ...
New Deal democrat 12/13/2008 10 13 3 31
Is there Hope for an Obama Economic Recovery in 2009?
Elections have consequences. The election of a laissez-faire, klepto-plutocrat free market fundamentalist Administration in 2000 and 2004 had real consequences. State actions to clamp down on ...
New Deal democrat 12/06/2008 38 38 2 52
1,250,000 jobs lost in 3 months!
The November payrolls number just came out, blowing away almost all estimates at a loss of 533,000 jobs in one month! The services sector, which had been holding up until only a couple of months ago,
New Deal democrat 12/05/2008 468 258 5 49
How Roosevelt solved the Banking Crisis - A Model for our Time
Despite a $700 Billion Wall Street Bailout, despite the Federal Reserve scooping over a $Trillion of questionable bank assets onto its balance sheets, despite an alphabet soup of new ...
New Deal democrat 11/22/2008 23 41 3 252
The Dog that Hasn't Barked:  Osama bin Laden is dead
Does anybody have the slightest doubt that Osama bin Laden, if he were alive, would have aired a new video trying to scare Americans into electing John McCain, just as he scared some into ...
New Deal democrat 11/03/2008 179 31 2 18
Saturday Silver Lining:  the Consumer catches a break
Lost in this past week's dismal news for 401k retirement reports (can we call them 201k's now?) is a silver lining for the consumer: this recession, like every 20th century recession before it,
New Deal democrat 10/11/2008 21 15 - -
Why the markets have crashed
For anyone who hasn't looked at the tv today, the financial markets lost another 7%, most of it an a frenzied last hour of trading. The major US stock market averages have lost over 20% in ...
New Deal democrat 10/09/2008 77 33 2 16
The American consumer finally capitulates
Suppose you wanted to undertake a significant new purchase. If you didn't have enough money now, you could still purchase it soon if you got a pay increase. If you didn't get a pay increase, you ...
New Deal democrat 10/07/2008 30 78 8 203
The Great Crash of 1929 vs. The Slow Motion Panic of 2008
The events we are living through now will be remembered and studied in the decades to come. After it initially appeared that financial hemorrhaging had been staunched, in ...
New Deal democrat 09/23/2008 62 60 1 46
Congressional rank and file oppose Wall Street bailout
To quote a phrase you may have heard once or twice around these parts this year, "YES WE CAN!" A number of diarists today have described some of the negotiations and pushback by ...
New Deal democrat 09/22/2008 39 38 - 19
Wall Street bailout plan explained, universally reviled [Update 14 It's unanimous]
First of all, I want to thank everybody involved in getting my "Action Alert" diary yesterday rescued from obscurity to land on the Rec list 3 1/2 hours after posting. In the last 24 ...
New Deal democrat 09/21/2008 725 1136 138 1478
ACTION ALERT! Text of Wall Street Bailout Act
Hat tip to Calculated Risk via Kossack 3 goldens , who has supplied the text of the Wall Street Bailout Act that Bush ...
New Deal democrat 09/20/2008 447 672 42 102
Countdown to $100 Oil?!? (5)- final diary
This is it. Forward month WTI has closed below $100, at $95.71. The Series is officially over. When I began this series on May 29, Oil was over $130, having gone up 30% in only 4 ...
New Deal democrat 09/15/2008 33 17 1 5
A Reminder of What is at Stake in this Election
The seriousness of what is at stake in the election of 2008 could hardly be more stark. The American Republic faces some of the most grave fiscal threats and threats to civil liberties in ...
New Deal democrat 09/14/2008 20 12 - 4
Countdown to $100 Oil?!?(4):  Hurricanes of the Carribbean!
As I write this, Oil is priced at about $108 a barrel. On Tuesday it went as low as $105.46 .
New Deal democrat 09/04/2008 28 10 2 12
CNN: Stop lying about Social Security
Right now CNN has up a front-page "Election 2008 Issues" article that lies about Social Security, from the title to the first line to the very end. This is part of a concerted right wing ...
New Deal democrat 08/28/2008 37 22 1 22
The first hints of a year-end economic Respite?
TGI Friday! To celebrate, here is a break from the regular economic Gloom and Doom; and as it happens, there are reasons to think a little bit of hope might be justified. Certainly the ...
New Deal democrat 08/15/2008 30 36 2 163
Americans' Standard of Living declines 2.2% in last year
The July consumer inflation data is out, and it's bad. Official CPI at 5.6% year-over-year is the worst since 1990. Food prices were up +.9% in a month. Energy prices up +1.9% in July. ...
New Deal democrat 08/14/2008 42 46 - 21
Countdown to $100 Oil?!? (3): Oil under $120
"Countdown to $100 Oil?!?" is my contrarian, slightly snarky counterpoint to the "Countdown to $200 Oil" diaries. The premise of this series is that, even if we have arrived at the plateau of "...
New Deal democrat 08/05/2008 66 25 3 27
The Insolvency of the FSLIC: a warning from the S&L crisis?
The Savings and Loans Crisis of the 1980's was one of the biggest financial crises in US history. The insurer for savings and loans, ...
New Deal democrat 08/04/2008 22 52 4 235
Global economic tipping point: at the intersection of China and Oil
The US is no longer the engine, or at least the sole engine, of global economic growth. That mantle is shared, at least, with Europe, and even moreso with emerging Asia, and nowhere so much as ...
New Deal democrat 08/02/2008 29 17 4 15
In The 1920s Credit Bubble , I explained how a credit binge gave rise to serial bubbles in housing, durable consumer ...
New Deal democrat 07/19/2008 51 42 6 30
The Panic of 2008: a turning point
Last November I wrote a diary called The Panic of 2008? in which I predicted: This is NOT the Great ...
New Deal democrat 07/12/2008 364 491 56 53
Hoarding in Plain Sight: Did Bush trigger oil going parabolic?
There is a fierce debate going on across a number of economic and financial blogs about the most recent price spike in oil. After years of seemingly orderly increase, the price of oil took off ...
New Deal democrat 06/28/2008 39 25 - 17
The Progressive Economic Case: Inequality, not Armageddon
As it turns out, that old saw about how a frog slowly boiled in water never jumps, isn't true. The frog jumps. Recent surveys show that over 80% of Americans believe the country is on the ...
New Deal democrat 06/16/2008 30 26 4 17
Welcome to Scroogeflation
Yesterday's report on import prices, and today's report on consumer prices, continue to show that average Americans have to spend more and more on necessities, leaving less and less for ...
New Deal democrat 06/13/2008 9 22 - 20
How the Fed created Global Inflation, US Stagnation
The bailout for billionaires on Wall Street, and the rampant increase in food and oil prices has been well and often discussed on Daily Kos. What has not perhaps been so well fleshed out, is ...
New Deal democrat 06/07/2008 7 16 1 31
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