Daily Kos

Oregon Prediction Roundup: O: 58% C: 40% (with Maps!)

Fri May 16, 2008 at 10:22:34 AM PDT

    I have a special connection with Oregon - I was born in its capital of Salem.  Ironically, Salem is one of the few places in Oregon where I don't necessarily expect Barack to do that well.

Poll

What will be the result in Oregon's primary on Tuesday?

2%3 votes
44%64 votes
41%59 votes
11%17 votes

| 143 votes | Vote | Results

BREAKING:  Clinton Superdelegate voted for Obama in Indiana.

Thu May 15, 2008 at 01:36:46 AM PDT

Clinton Superdelegate Brad Ellsworth reveals he actually voted for Barack Obama in the Indiana Democratic primary.

Poll

Will Ellsworth vote for Obama at the convention?

63%183 votes
13%40 votes
22%66 votes

| 289 votes | Vote | Results

Obama has enormous lead in new OR poll

Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:50:05 AM PDT

A new Oregon poll conducted by the Portland Tribune shows Obama with a massive lead.

Poll

What will be the margin of victory for Obama in Oregon?

0%3 votes
3%14 votes
33%120 votes
38%137 votes
23%85 votes

| 359 votes | Vote | Results

Open Thread - Continuing West Virginia Discussion (exit polls, I voted, etc.)

Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:34:36 PM PDT

This is just an open thread for people to continue talking about West Virginia stuff.  Exit poll data.  Etc...

Poll

What will be the result of today's WV primary? (not counting Edwards)

6%14 votes
20%45 votes
40%90 votes
19%44 votes
7%16 votes
5%13 votes

| 222 votes | Vote | Results

J.C. Watts defends Obama.

Mon May 12, 2008 at 05:34:13 PM PDT

    I don't believe this was diaried before - in any case, conservative Republican J.C. Watts wrote a great piece in Sunday's Las Vegas Journal-Review about Obama.

Poll

Will J.C. Watts endorse Obama for President?

19%61 votes
46%147 votes
34%111 votes

| 319 votes | Vote | Results

Has anyone been talking about this? (with poll)

Sun May 11, 2008 at 12:46:01 PM PDT

One of the most specious arguments we've heard some of the Democratic strategists make is that Obama is weaker in Ohio and Pennsylvania than Clinton is simply because Clinton defeated him there.

Poll

Which of the three "big swing states" will Obama win in November?

2%5 votes
5%14 votes
0%0 votes
55%130 votes
2%6 votes
2%7 votes
26%63 votes
3%9 votes

| 234 votes | Vote | Results

ACTION ITEM: The REAL effect of Operation Chaos on the Democratic primary and the media myths.

Sat May 10, 2008 at 04:52:21 PM PDT

I can't take it anymore.  I can't take everyone assuming that Obama is doing really badly with certain sectors of white voters, when it's all based on lies.

For the following diary, I got all my exit poll data from allpolitics.com.

NOW is not the time to get complacent about Obama's chances, even though it looks like the Supers are flooding to Obama.  If you agree with this diary, please call or email the undeclared Superdelegates with this information.

The list of them can be found here:  
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/...

Poll

What has been the biggest impact of Operation Chaos?

5%8 votes
10%16 votes
12%20 votes
10%17 votes
61%96 votes

| 157 votes | Vote | Results

*UPDATED* Open Thread: Obama Picks Up 7 Supers (non-add-on)

Fri May 09, 2008 at 10:56:14 AM PDT

Obama has received 6 Superdelegate endorsments in the last 24 hours.

They are:

Ed Espinoza - DNC member California
Vernon Watkins - DNC member California
Peter DeFazio - Oregon
John Gage - DNC member Maryland
Donald Payne - New Jersey
Wilber Lee Jeffcoat - the Democratic Party Vice Chair in South Carolina
Congresswoman Mazie Hirono - Hawaii

More to come?

ANOTHER UPDATE:  Laura Weahkee, the add-on delegate from New Mexico, is backing Barack Obama.

Poll

How many more Superdelegates will endorse Obama in the next 24 hours?

4%10 votes
13%29 votes
17%36 votes
19%41 votes
23%49 votes
7%15 votes
8%18 votes
6%13 votes

| 211 votes | Vote | Results

Not So Breaking:  Obama to declare victory on May 20th

Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:19:33 AM PDT

According to an article that just came over the AP Wires, it looks as though Obama believes he will have enough pledged delegates to declare a decisive victory immediately following the Oregon and Kentucky primaries on May 20th.

Poll

Who has the most legitimate claim to the Democratic nomination at this point?

78%134 votes
2%5 votes
4%7 votes
4%7 votes
2%5 votes
0%1 votes
7%12 votes

| 171 votes | Vote | Results

BREAKING:  Obama grabs 4 more Superdelegates.  *UPDATED*

Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:26:24 AM PDT

This just came across the AP wires.  Today, Obama grabbed 4 more Superdelegates.

(FYI - George McGovern is NOT a Superdelegate.  Please make a note of it.)

UPDATE:

This is from the New York Times:  

Today, in the wake of the North Carolina and Indiana primaries, the Obama campaign is announcing three new superdelegates: Jerry Meek, chairman of the North Carolina Democratic Party, Jeanette Council, a member of the D.N.C. from North Carolina and Inola Henry, a member of the D.N.C. from California.

ANOTHER UPDATE:   SWITCHER!

Obama wins a fourth superdelegate– a Virginia Assembly member who switched from Clinton’s camp.

This cancels out Heath Shuler's endorsement of Hillary.

Poll

How many weeks before HRC drops out?

10%517 votes
26%1286 votes
13%671 votes
11%557 votes
2%139 votes
3%164 votes
31%1523 votes

| 4857 votes | Vote | Results

Obama has momentum in Zogby polls *Updated*  IN: O 45  C 43  NC O 51 C 37

Mon May 05, 2008 at 09:56:19 PM PDT

Obama is on the move in North Carolina and holding steady in Indiana!

Poll

What will be the result in Tuesday's primaries?

62%43 votes
28%20 votes
8%6 votes

| 69 votes | Vote | Results

Final Indiana Prediction Roundup *UPDATED* (with updated homemade Map!)

Sun May 04, 2008 at 09:04:52 PM PDT

    I think I finally figured out why so many pollsters are having such a tough time polling Indiana.  It's because Indiana is the only state that has a law which prevents pollsters from using automated machines.  This might be one of the reasons why the polls have been all over the place.  We've gone through entire cycles of Obama being ahead, then Clinton, and so on.  

UPDATE:  NEW ZOGBY POLL:  Obama 44   Clinton 42.  Obama trails white voters by just 7 points!

SECOND UPDATE:  Poblano has posted his excellent analysis at fivethirtyeight.com regarding Indiana.  He was within 1.8% of the popular vote in Pennsylvania using his prediction model.  His model says HRC will win Indiana by 2 points 51% to 49%.  http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/...

Poll

What will be the delegate result from Indiana?

35%115 votes
26%87 votes
37%121 votes

| 323 votes | Vote | Results

I blocked CNN Today.  (And you can too!)

Fri May 02, 2008 at 09:08:52 PM PDT

    Today I wrote a strong letter and faxed it to CNN after having called my cable company to have them explain to me how to block CNN and Headline News.  I really hope this gets recced and tipped because I want to reach the widest possible audience in the hopes that some people will follow my example.

Poll

What will you do to send a message to CNN?

28%24 votes
1%1 votes
10%9 votes
59%50 votes

| 84 votes | Vote | Results

Indiana Delegate Prediction:  Obama 35, Clinton 37 (w/ Maps!)

Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:22:53 AM PDT

Yet another prediction diary, but with a homemade map of Indiana at the end.  (By the way, my prediction map of Pennsylvania was hugely accurate - I missed only one county: Montgomery, which was essentially a tie.)

Poll

What will be the margin of victory in Indiana?

4%11 votes
39%105 votes
14%37 votes
37%99 votes
4%12 votes

| 264 votes | Vote | Results

Stop panicking over the NC polls.

Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 04:23:15 PM PDT

The NC polls show a tightening of the race.  That is clear.  But let's look at the polls more closely.

Poll

By what percentage will Obama win NC?

9%56 votes
31%182 votes
47%274 votes
9%55 votes
2%15 votes

| 582 votes | Vote | Results

Deep inside the Newsweek poll:  Debunking the Obama myths

Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 01:21:39 PM PDT

The other day Kos did a post on the Newsweek poll.  I would like to go farther inside the poll and reveal some more of its astonishing data.

Poll

Is the media braindead?

38%57 votes
30%46 votes
30%46 votes

| 149 votes | Vote | Results

Obama stronger than Hillary among winnable Swing States.

Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 02:24:02 PM PDT

One of the main arguments among the Hillary surrogates is that she is somehow stronger than Obama in the swing states.   This is patently absurd.

Poll

Which Democrat can make more inroads in traditionally "red" states

96%138 votes
3%5 votes

| 143 votes | Vote | Results

North Carolina sees surge in Democratic and Independent registrations.

Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 06:41:05 PM PDT

    As is the case with all the other states that have had contests on our side of the aisle this year, North Carolina has seen a substantial increase in newly registered voters eligible to vote in the Democratic Primary.

Poll

Can the Democrats win North Carolina this Fall?

73%191 votes
2%7 votes
23%62 votes

| 260 votes | Vote | Results


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