Oregon Prediction Roundup: O: 58% C: 40% (with Maps!)
Fri May 16, 2008 at 10:22:34 AM PDT
I have a special connection with Oregon - I was born in its capital of Salem. Ironically, Salem is one of the few places in Oregon where I don't necessarily expect Barack to do that well.
BREAKING: Clinton Superdelegate voted for Obama in Indiana.
Thu May 15, 2008 at 01:36:46 AM PDT
Clinton Superdelegate Brad Ellsworth reveals he actually voted for Barack Obama in the Indiana Democratic primary.
Obama has enormous lead in new OR poll
Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:50:05 AM PDT
A new Oregon poll conducted by the Portland Tribune shows Obama with a massive lead.
Open Thread - Continuing West Virginia Discussion (exit polls, I voted, etc.)
Tue May 13, 2008 at 01:34:36 PM PDT
This is just an open thread for people to continue talking about West Virginia stuff. Exit poll data. Etc...
J.C. Watts defends Obama.
Mon May 12, 2008 at 05:34:13 PM PDT
I don't believe this was diaried before - in any case, conservative Republican J.C. Watts wrote a great piece in Sunday's Las Vegas Journal-Review about Obama.
Has anyone been talking about this? (with poll)
Sun May 11, 2008 at 12:46:01 PM PDT
One of the most specious arguments we've heard some of the Democratic strategists make is that Obama is weaker in Ohio and Pennsylvania than Clinton is simply because Clinton defeated him there.
ACTION ITEM: The REAL effect of Operation Chaos on the Democratic primary and the media myths.
Sat May 10, 2008 at 04:52:21 PM PDT
I can't take it anymore. I can't take everyone assuming that Obama is doing really badly with certain sectors of white voters, when it's all based on lies.
For the following diary, I got all my exit poll data from allpolitics.com.
NOW is not the time to get complacent about Obama's chances, even though it looks like the Supers are flooding to Obama. If you agree with this diary, please call or email the undeclared Superdelegates with this information.
The list of them can be found here:
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/...
*UPDATED* Open Thread: Obama Picks Up 7 Supers (non-add-on)
Fri May 09, 2008 at 10:56:14 AM PDT
Obama has received 6 Superdelegate endorsments in the last 24 hours.
They are:
Ed Espinoza - DNC member California
Vernon Watkins - DNC member California
Peter DeFazio - Oregon
John Gage - DNC member Maryland
Donald Payne - New Jersey
Wilber Lee Jeffcoat - the Democratic Party Vice Chair in South Carolina
Congresswoman Mazie Hirono - Hawaii
More to come?
ANOTHER UPDATE: Laura Weahkee, the add-on delegate from New Mexico, is backing Barack Obama.
Not So Breaking: Obama to declare victory on May 20th
Thu May 08, 2008 at 10:19:33 AM PDT
According to an article that just came over the AP Wires, it looks as though Obama believes he will have enough pledged delegates to declare a decisive victory immediately following the Oregon and Kentucky primaries on May 20th.
BREAKING: Obama grabs 4 more Superdelegates. *UPDATED*
Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:26:24 AM PDT
This just came across the AP wires. Today, Obama grabbed 4 more Superdelegates.
(FYI - George McGovern is NOT a Superdelegate. Please make a note of it.)
UPDATE:
This is from the New York Times:
Today, in the wake of the North Carolina and Indiana primaries, the Obama campaign is announcing three new superdelegates: Jerry Meek, chairman of the North Carolina Democratic Party, Jeanette Council, a member of the D.N.C. from North Carolina and Inola Henry, a member of the D.N.C. from California.
ANOTHER UPDATE: SWITCHER!
Obama wins a fourth superdelegate– a Virginia Assembly member who switched from Clinton’s camp.
This cancels out Heath Shuler's endorsement of Hillary.
Obama has momentum in Zogby polls *Updated* IN: O 45 C 43 NC O 51 C 37
Mon May 05, 2008 at 09:56:19 PM PDT
Obama is on the move in North Carolina and holding steady in Indiana!
Final Indiana Prediction Roundup *UPDATED* (with updated homemade Map!)
Sun May 04, 2008 at 09:04:52 PM PDT
I think I finally figured out why so many pollsters are having such a tough time polling Indiana. It's because Indiana is the only state that has a law which prevents pollsters from using automated machines. This might be one of the reasons why the polls have been all over the place. We've gone through entire cycles of Obama being ahead, then Clinton, and so on.
UPDATE: NEW ZOGBY POLL: Obama 44 Clinton 42. Obama trails white voters by just 7 points!
SECOND UPDATE: Poblano has posted his excellent analysis at fivethirtyeight.com regarding Indiana. He was within 1.8% of the popular vote in Pennsylvania using his prediction model. His model says HRC will win Indiana by 2 points 51% to 49%. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/...
I blocked CNN Today. (And you can too!)
Fri May 02, 2008 at 09:08:52 PM PDT
Today I wrote a strong letter and faxed it to CNN after having called my cable company to have them explain to me how to block CNN and Headline News. I really hope this gets recced and tipped because I want to reach the widest possible audience in the hopes that some people will follow my example.
Indiana Delegate Prediction: Obama 35, Clinton 37 (w/ Maps!)
Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 10:22:53 AM PDT
Yet another prediction diary, but with a homemade map of Indiana at the end. (By the way, my prediction map of Pennsylvania was hugely accurate - I missed only one county: Montgomery, which was essentially a tie.)
Stop panicking over the NC polls.
Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 04:23:15 PM PDT
The NC polls show a tightening of the race. That is clear. But let's look at the polls more closely.
Deep inside the Newsweek poll: Debunking the Obama myths
Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 01:21:39 PM PDT
The other day Kos did a post on the Newsweek poll. I would like to go farther inside the poll and reveal some more of its astonishing data.
Obama stronger than Hillary among winnable Swing States.
Sat Apr 26, 2008 at 02:24:02 PM PDT
One of the main arguments among the Hillary surrogates is that she is somehow stronger than Obama in the swing states. This is patently absurd.
North Carolina sees surge in Democratic and Independent registrations.
Fri Apr 25, 2008 at 06:41:05 PM PDT
As is the case with all the other states that have had contests on our side of the aisle this year, North Carolina has seen a substantial increase in newly registered voters eligible to vote in the Democratic Primary.