Posting History for SoCalGal23
|Comparison of my 2012 Predictions vs. Results (plus a look ahead to 2014)
Here is the comparison of my 2012 predictions against the results. I know that not all the results have been finalized, but it doesn't seem likely that any result will change at this point. Most of ...
|My Final 2012 Predictions, National-Level and California-Level
I was able to squeeze some time out of my hectic schedule to make my routine election predictions for 2012. After these results, I will have my "Partisan Factor" predictions for California, ...
|Outlook for California districts in 2012 - Post-Convention Edition
I know it's been a month since the conventions, but I have been very busy in that time. Here are the updated districts in my "Outlook" series. From my formula predictions on all states' elections, ...
|Analysis of California State Assembly 2012 races
Here is my analysis of the Assembly races. I will start with listing by rating. GUARANTEED DEM - 15 SAFE DEM - 32 LEAN DEM - 2 TOSS-UP - 3 LEAN GOP - 1 LIKELY GOP - 2 SAFE GOP - 19 GUARANTEED GOP - ...
|Analysis of 2012 California State Senate Races
Here is a quick list of the even-numbered districts, which will be up in 2014. SD-02 (North Coast): Noreen Evans (D) SD-04 (Northern Sacramento Valley): Doug LaMalfa (R) - currently running for CA-...
|Analysis of 2012 California U.S. House Races
Now that the primary dust is settled and I have some time, I can present my analysis of the California districts this year. With top-two, we have some more interesting races to watch. With the lack ...
|Outlook for California districts in 2012 - Post-Primary Edition
Here are the updated districts in my "Outlook" series. I used the Cook PVI on the registration numbers and election results. Averaging these numbers gave PF's that are mostly Republican-leaning, as ...
|Inland Empire, 1992-2010
Here is the data I collected for election districts in Riverside and San Bernardino Counties. I included the Democrats' share of just the total Dem and GOP votes for president and the Democrats' ...
|Outlook for California districts in 2012 - Post-Super Tuesday Edition
Here are the updated districts in my "Outlook" series. I replaced the 2008-President numbers with a "Cook PVI" based only on 2008. With this number, calculating the "Partisan Factor" (PF) became a ...
|Outlook for California districts in 2012 - Christmas/New Year's edition
Picking up on a diary from Calitics in 2006 about tracking competitive districts, I continued the tracking for the 2008 and 2010 ...
|Redistricting California (Part 4): Hypothetical Unicameral Legislature
In the last part of my redistricting California series, here is a map of what a 120-district unicameral legislature, the Senate and Assembly merged, might look like. I did this map at the same time ...
|Redistricting California (Part 3): State Assembly and BoE
Here are my maps of the California State Assembly and the Board of Equalization, the tax board. To make each BoE district, I colored over 20 Assembly districts. Majority-White: 37 Majority-Black: 1 ...
|Redistricting California (Part 2): State Senate
Here is my attempt at redistricting the California State Senate. With over 936,000 people per district, satisfying communities of interest becomes a bit more challenging. Here are the districts I ...
|Redistricting California (Part 1): U.S. House
Here is my attempt at redistricting California's U.S. House seats, following the commission's goal of communities of interest as closely as I could. I included each incumbent's name in roughly which ...
|California Race Chart 2010 (Part 3 of 3: State Legislature)
Here is Part 3, the last part of my analysis of this fall’s elections in California, which will cover the state legislative races. Cross-posted ...
|California Race Chart 2010 (Part 2 of 3: Congressional Races)
Here is Part 2 of my analysis of this fall's elections in California, which will cover the Congressional races. Part 3 will cover the state legislature. Cross-posted ...
|California Race Chart 2010 (Part 1 of 3: Statewide Races)
Cross-posted at Swing State Project ,
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