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Nate Silver has recently pointed out that a surge in the black vote could radically change this election, well outside what his or anyone else's models would predict.  Today he further points out there is evidence the surge is actually occuring.  This led me to ask "what percentage increase in the black vote would actually result in flipping Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia and South Carolina?"

Calculations below the fold.

Poll

Election '08 Will Be

9%7 votes
1%1 votes
2%2 votes
6%5 votes
7%6 votes
2%2 votes
3%3 votes
3%3 votes
3%3 votes
6%5 votes
12%10 votes
11%9 votes
3%3 votes
18%14 votes
5%4 votes

| 77 votes | Vote | Results

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Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 12:50 PM PDT

The Trouble with Wingnut Candidates

by SteamPunkX

George W. Bush.  Sarah Palin.  Michelle Bachman.  Robyn Hayes.  These are all Republican "politicians."  Why, you may ask, do I put the word "politician" in quotes when all of them, unfortunately, have been elected to represent the United States at one level or another?  Because they're not real politicians, they're the GOP base polished by Gingrich media training and unleashed upon us by Rovian tactics.  They aren't professional politicians, they are amateurish wingnut fans, and that's why they fail so miserably.

Poll

Save America

11%8 votes
19%13 votes
2%2 votes
4%3 votes
7%5 votes
2%2 votes
7%5 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
25%17 votes
4%3 votes
1%1 votes
0%0 votes
8%6 votes
4%3 votes

| 68 votes | Vote | Results

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Perversely, the closer we have come to electoral victory, the more morose I have become.  You see, one member of my family hasn't been warming to Barack.  In fact, she hated him for defeating her hero, Hillary Clinton. What started as a friendly family rivalry between the two most political members of the family rapidly devolved into our own little cold war.  My mother turned to a convenient racism.  We didn't speak for a month, and didn't speak of the election again afterwards.

Poll

The Reverend SPX' Poll

6%2 votes
3%1 votes
0%0 votes
13%4 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
3%1 votes
0%0 votes
10%3 votes
10%3 votes
10%3 votes
0%0 votes
10%3 votes
0%0 votes
33%10 votes

| 30 votes | Vote | Results

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Something The Dog Said caught my attention this morning. The dog said "This Election is O.V.E.R."  While I often take the opinions of children, talking animals and Hoosiers with a grain of salt (and a little less tequila), this dog is right.  At four weeks out we are in "The Catbird Seat," a very comfortable and unfamiliar position for Democrats, especially ones who weren't around when Bill Clinton ran against Bob Dole.

But an electoral lock and a conservative rout are not enough.  I want to win big, win HUGE, with a mandate from the electorate that leaves Alegre and the PUMAs demoralized and confused, and shatters the GOP into their various tribes.  I want to run up the score, and I want to make it hurt, because this election may be the only real payback we're going to give them for eight years of awfulness, for lies and deceit and mismanagement.  

This election is our referendum, so let's make the mandate irrefutable.

Poll

4 Weeks Out Poll

32%22 votes
10%7 votes
13%9 votes
5%4 votes
2%2 votes
1%1 votes
2%2 votes
2%2 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
1%1 votes
2%2 votes
16%11 votes
2%2 votes
4%3 votes

| 68 votes | Vote | Results

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Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 07:12 AM PDT

Winning the War of the White Flag

by SteamPunkX

Since 9-11 the GOP has been running on a jingoistic and criminally belligerent belief that the American people are a bunch of brown-person-hating huns and oil-hungry imperialists who would rather not be bothered by the details of international law, atrocities committed abroad in our name by our leaders, the stunning waste of our national treasure, and the death and dismemberment of our troops.

Americans, as it turns out, are a bunch of pinko-commie-yellow-bellied-francophile-surrender-monkeys who want to end the war.  The American people are tired of flag-waving an breast-beating.  They want a plan, but we're the only ones offering one.

Poll

We've got the Man, the Plan and

31%10 votes
18%6 votes
6%2 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
9%3 votes
3%1 votes
6%2 votes
3%1 votes
0%0 votes
3%1 votes
0%0 votes
15%5 votes
3%1 votes

| 32 votes | Vote | Results

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McCain is defending his ticket today.  In Missouri.  Yesterday he was in Iowa.  These are not electoral votes the GOP should be defending with five weeks left in the campaign.  And they know it.  If you think the accusations and lies have been nasty and over-the-top so far, you ain't seen nothing yet.

Poll

When cornered

7%5 votes
6%4 votes
7%5 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
16%11 votes
13%9 votes
10%7 votes
0%0 votes
4%3 votes
0%0 votes
1%1 votes
3%2 votes
4%3 votes
23%15 votes

| 65 votes | Vote | Results

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From the start the Netroots were on the right track with Sarah Palin.  To quote Dave Letterman, "something smells."  But now, after giving three interviews and answering approximately two impromptu media questions even many of her right-wing defenders are calling for her to bow out.

But let's not waste time with links to what you've already read (there's a lovely recommended diary detailing the latest), let's discuss what this means for the future of the GOP.

Poll

More Qualified to be POTUS than Palin:

3%6 votes
1%3 votes
1%3 votes
0%1 votes
0%0 votes
21%34 votes
5%8 votes
0%0 votes
4%7 votes
5%8 votes
9%15 votes
1%2 votes
12%20 votes
4%7 votes
26%42 votes

| 156 votes | Vote | Results

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Yesterday a coworker forwarded an email to me asking if the information in it was true:

Not sure if this is true but it was sent to me and I’m forwarding it along just in case there is any validity to it.

FYI......If by chance you are not of this, I just called the Board of Elections in Maryland and confirmed that you cannot come within 100 feet of the voting polls wearing any garment that shows the candidate you are supporting/voting for.

I see a lot of Obama hats and shirts.  It is important that people are aware of this.
_______________________________________________________________________
Please spread the word...

We looked it up and this is true!
This morning I heard on the Steve Harvey show that on the day of elections you CANT show up to vote wearing any thing that show’s who you are voting for....like Obama T-shirts, buttons, or anything like that or you will be turned away. They say it’s against the law, and a lot of people don’t know that so please spread the word.

Poll

Ninja's vote

14%2 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
14%2 votes
7%1 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
7%1 votes
0%0 votes
14%2 votes
0%0 votes
14%2 votes
0%0 votes
14%2 votes
14%2 votes

| 14 votes | Vote | Results

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Yes, it’s true, on tonight’s Hannity and Colmes, Sarah Palin will reportedly state that Barack Obama’s experience as a community organizer, which did straight out of college, is equitable to her experience as a small town mayor.

Poll

Sarah Palin's bubble burst when

4%11 votes
3%8 votes
20%48 votes
16%40 votes
4%10 votes
13%31 votes
7%17 votes
0%0 votes
4%10 votes
2%6 votes
8%20 votes
1%3 votes
5%12 votes
5%12 votes
3%9 votes

| 237 votes | Vote | Results

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Who? An unreformed, unapologetic Clintonista*, but . . . a couple of wikis explain:

Lynn Forester de Rothschild, Lady de Rothschild (born July 2, 1954 in Oradell, New Jersey) is an England-based American entrepreneur. She heads the Luxembourg-based wireless broadband company FirstMark Communications Europe, launched in 1998 which raised $1 billion in funding, and has board members including former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger and Washington power-broker Vernon Jordan as board members.

On November 30, 2000, Sir Evelyn married the American lawyer and entrepreneur Lynn Forester, head of the Luxembourg-based wireless broadband venture FirstMark Communications Europe and the former wife of Andrew Stein, a New York City political figure who served as the last president of the New York City Council.

*The term Clintonista denotes supporting HRC by voting Republican, and other self-destructive political acts on her behalf by self-identified Democrats.  If you aren't voting for McCain, you aren't one.  If you didn't read this and make this mistake in the comments, I will ridicule you with glee, and without mercy.

Poll

Elitism is

5%4 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
1%1 votes
21%16 votes
1%1 votes
4%3 votes
19%14 votes
12%9 votes
8%6 votes
2%2 votes
1%1 votes
2%2 votes
13%10 votes
5%4 votes

| 73 votes | Vote | Results

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Fri Sep 12, 2008 at 05:59 AM PDT

Make Your Own Damn Change.

by SteamPunkX

Yesterday, in response to the depraved and awful  I diaried an appeal for people to volunteer for the Obama as I have decided to.  I quoted Bob Dylan, got a bit choked up writing it.  I hoped to influence people to quit writing useless "Obama should attack harder/this way/say this" diaries.  But it failed.

So let me put this bluntly:  Make your own damn change. Obama isn't going to change the world for you, and has told you so.  Listen up!  You are the change.  So do something, and quit whining.

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I've always remained an aloof observer and commentator on politics.  It's a matter of preference that I have, perhaps, allowed to become a matter of personal pride.  The crowds at rallies and marches, making phone calls to potential voters, fundraising, these are all things that I abhor personally.

Oh, where have you been, my blue-eyed son?
Oh, where have you been, my darling young one?

 
I've lived through enough elections to have seen the GOP at their mendacious worst.  I remember the Willie Horton ad when it was aired (and I was still naïve enough to think Dukakis was a viable candidate).  I remember the Clinton revolution, and the stunned Republicans who hadn’t seen him coming.  I remember Dole’s pitiful campaign, and Bush’s remarkably dishonest ones.  But this campaign, McCain ‘08’s dishonorable, sleazey, race-baiting, lying, inveigling and obfuscating nightmare of a campaign, has finally forced me to do the unthinkable: volunteer.

Poll

13%8 votes
1%1 votes
8%5 votes
3%2 votes
14%9 votes
9%6 votes
6%4 votes
13%8 votes
8%5 votes
3%2 votes
1%1 votes
16%10 votes

| 61 votes | Vote | Results

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