NJ-Sen: Per Rasmussen, Democratic Sen. Frank Lautenberg is cruising with a lead of nearly twenty points over his Republican rival, former Rep. Dick Zimmer: With July numbers (7/07) in parentheses:

With leaners included, the margin shrinks a bit, but only a bit: 53% for Lautenberg, 38% for Zimmer.

Lautenberg has tacked on a few points at Zimmer's expense since the last poll, and has now crossed the magic 50% reelect mark. In June, Lautenberg and Zimmer were actually deadlocked; just two months ago, Lautenberg led by a single point, 45% to 44%. His lead is now 18 points.

(Insert requisite statement here about how difficult New Jersey is to poll, and how deceptive NJ polling results can be).

Lautenberg isn't quite out of the woods yet. The largest margin of victory in his long Senate career has been his 10-point win in 2002, and he's never garnered more than 54% of the vote in any of his Senate races. That said, he has won four tough elections in a row, and faces arguably the weakest challenger of his career this year.

This race should be considered "Likely Democratic".

AK-Sen: Swing State Project has changed their rating of the Alaska Senate race, in the wake of Ted Stevens' indictment and the subsequent fallout:

Not all of the dust has settled yet, but we feel comfortable enough in moving our rating of this race from "Tossup" to "Lean Democratic". Even in a vacuum, Anchorage Mayor and Democrat Mark Begich would be a very strong candidate for statewide office in Alaska, but Begich is not running in any ordinary environment; he's up against an indicted Senator whose numbers are circling the drain in the two most recent polls.

The biggest danger to Begich (an Orange to Blue candidate) at this point is the prospect that Stevens may win the primary, then remove himself from the ballot so as to enable the Alaska GOP to put a stronger candidate on the ballot. However, with Gov. Sarah Palin already having removed her name from consideration under such a scenario, it's frankly difficult to see anyone on the bench in Alaska who would be an obviously stronger candidate than the indicted Stevens, especially if Stevens does manage to wrangle an acquittal at his September trial.

SSP is right on with their ranking.

CO-Sen: A third-party organization entitled "Coloradans for Economic Growth" is running ads attacking Democrat Mark Udall on taxes.

Like all of Republican Bob Schaffer's pals, these guys (or their ads, at least) are shady in the extreme. Denver's 7News eviscerates the ad:

"Mark Udall voted for higher taxes at least 50 times," the ad claims.

To back up this charge, ad producers provide a list of votes, but the problem is that many are multiple votes on the same bills. Congress often has multiple votes on one measure.

So it is misleading to imply that Udall voted to raise taxes 50 different times.

...

"Udall is fighting for the biggest tax increase in history," the ad says.

The ad backs this claim up with Udall’s vote not to extend President George Bush’s tax cuts. While it’s true that he voted against extending the tax cut as many other Democrats did, it is fiction to say he is fighting for the biggest tax increase in history.

Meanwhile, we've got our own allies fighting on Udall's behalf, and they're a bit less sketchy. The National Education Association has placed a $400,000 ad buy in Colorado, following the lead of the League of Conservation.

Call it a case of "anything you can spend, I can spend better".

MS-Sen: Democrat Ronnie Musgrove makes a funny at the expense of his Republican opponent, Sen. Roger Wicker:

"Even Paris Hilton has a better energy plan than Roger Wicker," Musgrove said in the statement. "Roger Wicker has been in Washington for 14 years, gas prices have gone up and he's done nothing until now, right before his election."

Zing!

OK-Sen, KS-Sen, ID-Sen: Over at the Senate Guru's blog, you can check out the Guru's exclusive interview with Kansas Senate candidate (and former Congressman) Jim Slattery.

Slattery touched on such subjects as the Bush Administration's massive budget deficits, dissatisfaction with the current course in Iraq, his environmental record in Congress, and the challenges facing him as he seeks to become the first Democrat elected to the Senate from Kansas in John McCain's lifetime.

Meanwhile, also at Senate Guru, Orange to Blue candidate Andrew Rice liveblogged yesterday. Senator Rice commented on his experiences and legislative battles in the Oklahoma Senate, and touched on the stunning inadequacies of his infamous opponent, incumbent Senator James Inhofe:

Many of the fights I've been leading in the Oklahoma legislature are fights that need to be taken to Washington.  I've fought to expand health insurance coverage for children to close the gap between those who qualify for Medicaid and those who can afford private insurance.  My second TV ad, which you can see here, talks about my fight to hold insurance companies to their word in covering patients who enroll in potentially life-saving clinical trials.

I've fought to honor our veterans and our troops by battling hunger, homelessness, and shortfalls in benefits for those who have given so much to serve our country.  I've fought for common-sense solutions to our energy problems that will grow our economy while developing clean, renewable energy alternatives that will make us both energy independent and environmentally responsible.

My opponent, Jim Inhofe, has ignored the needs of Oklahomans on all of these issues, instead pursuing his own ideological agenda and putting the needs of corporate lobbyists ahead of his constituents.  He talks about how he doesn't change - but the problem is that while he hasn't changed, the world has.  He's out of touch with Oklahoma and with the new realities that have made his worldview a relic from the past.  For the future of Oklahoma, Jim Inhofe needs to retire.

Finally, completing the liveblog/interview trifecta, Idaho Senate candidate Larry LaRocco liveblogged here at Daily Kos yesterday. He's running a surprisingly competitive race (a recent R2K poll for Daily Kos showed a stunningly thin 10-point lead for Republican frontrunner Jim Risch).

LaRocco faces a difficult battle, one not made easier by the fact that Risch is ducking debates, attempting to ride his cash and name recognition to victory (and spending a good bit of his time attacking bloggers like us).

House Races

TN-09: It's primary day in Tennessee, and as kos noted, we've seen one of the ugliest primary campaigns of the cycle in Tennessee's Ninth District, as "right-wing Trojan Horse" Nikki Tinker challenges progressive Democratic incumbent Steve Cohen.

Tinker's latest ads have been sufficiently bad that her campaign has gone so far as to scrub them from YouTube, in a vain attempt to limit the national outcry. She had the dubious distinction of being named Keith Olbermann's "Worst Person in the World" last night, and statements condemning her ads have come down from presidential nominee Barack Obama:

"These incendiary and personal attacks have no place in our politics, and will do nothing to help the good people of Tennessee," Obama said in a statement. "It's time to turn the page on a politics driven by negativity and division so that we can come together to lift up our communities and our country."

and from her supporters at EMILY's List (whose support essentially legitimized the Tinker campaign in the first place:

EMILY's List president Ellen Malcolm issued a statement Wednesday evening condemning Tinker's most recent ad.  The group, which endorses Democratic women who favor abortion rights, has been Tinker's most prominent backer.

"We were shocked to see the recent ads run by the Nikki Tinker for Congress campaign. We believe the ads are offensive and divisive,"

If Tinker does somehow make it to Washington, she won't have any friends when she gets there.

MO-09: Fresh off an impressive primary victory, Democratic candidate Judy Baker was just added to Red to Blue, as she heads into the general election for the seat of retiring Rep. Kenny Hulshof:

Following her victory in the Democratic Primary in Missouri's 9th Congressional District, Judy Baker has immediately been added to the DCCC's Red to Blue program for open seats. Judy Baker earned a spot in the competitive program by establishing significant local support, surpassing demanding fundraising goals, and skillfully showing Missouri's voters that she stands for change and will represent new priorities.

"Congratulations to Judy Baker on her primary victory and for assembling a strong grassroots campaign for change," said DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen. "Judy Baker is a strong leader who will fight to make college and health care more affordable, lower gas prices, and replace the Bush-Blunt economic agenda with an approach that lifts all Missourians. The Red to Blue program will give Judy the financial and structural edge to be even more competitive."

NV-02: EMILY's List has a good deal of egg on their collective face after Nikki Tinker's recent stunts. But they've certainly gotten one right with their latest endorsement, that of Nevada Democrat Jill Derby:

"Jill Derby has her pulse on the issues that are most important to families in Nevada and will use her voice in Washington to bring real change to the second district," said Ellen R. Malcolm, president of EMILY’s List.  "EMILY’s List members in Nevada and across the country are proud to endorse Jill Derby and we are excited to work to get another strong Democratic candidate elected to Congress this November."

A fourth generation Nevadan, Jill Derby embodies the passion and the work ethic necessary to replace politics as usual in Washington, D.C. and get results for the people of Nevada.  Having lived in the Middle East for three years, Derby brings an in-depth understanding of this critical region to Congress. She will also continue to fight for the issues that are more important to voters in the second district – fulfilling promises made to veterans, forging a sensible energy plan, ensuring access to health care, and demanding fiscal responsibility at all levels of government.

KS-02: On the heels of the news that she will not have a rematch against former Rep. Jim Ryun, considered her strongest opponent, Democratic freshman Rep. Nancy Boyda has requested the DCCC cancel a $1.2 million ad buy in her district.

U.S. Rep. Nancy Boyda, D-Kan., said today the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee complied with her request to withdraw plans for $1.2 million in campaign commercials in her district.

     
She expressed concern recently the influx of independent advertising in her 2nd District campaign against Republican Lynn Jenkins might too heavily influence the outcome.

"This is terrific news for anyone who believes that Kansas voters should control Kansas campaigns," Boyda said. "By canceling their ads, the DCCC has given Kansas the chance to run our election without Washington interference."

Apparently she is confident in her ability to beat Kansas State Treasurer Lynn Jenkins utilizing her own resources.

National: With the despicable Freedom's Watch now airing radio ads around the country (including a TV ad in Boyda's district), the DCCC has responded with IE's in ten of the targeted districts.

They are as follows (with the name of the Democratic candidate included):

ID-01 (Walt Minnick
LA-06 (Rep. Don Cazayoux)
MI-07 (Mark Schauer)
MO-06 (Kay Barnes)
NH-01 (Rep. Carol Shea-Porter)
NM-01 (Martin Heinrich)
NY-29 (Eric Massa)
OH-15 (Mary Jo Kilroy)
OH-16 (John Boccieri)
PA-10 (Rep. Chris Carney)

They will start airing on Friday.

GA-Sen: As we reported last night, Jim Martin defeated Vernon Jones handily in the runoff election to determine the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate in Georgia.

Martin won quite handily, by roughly 20 points, swamping Jones even in several counties which Jones had won in the initial primary.

Martin will now take on incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss in the general (Chambliss, you may remember, won a narrow 53-46 victory over Democrat Max Cleland in 2002, after running one of the most controversial ads in recent memory).

OR-Sen: SurveyUSA has a new poll out on the Oregon race, which shows a double-digit lead for Republican Sen. Gordon Smith over his Democratic challenger, Jeff Merkley:

Swing State Project's James L. notices a couple of potential liabilities with the SUSA poll:

A few things seem a bit funky here, most notably Gordon Smith's improbably high 53-29 performance among voters aged 18-34.

The partisan breakdown of the sample, at 37R-41D-22I, is also perhaps a bit suspect. SUSA's partisan sample of Oregon has fluctuated in recent months, from 32R-44D in April to 32R-48D in May to 41R-42D in June. Where lies the truth? CNN's 2004 exit poll pegged turnout as 34R-32D-34I, but surely the landscape is now tinted with a bluer hue four years later. In fact, according to the latest voter registration numbers from the OR SoS, Dems have a 43%-33% voter registration advantage over the GOP as of June. That's a significant advantage that you don't see reflected in SUSA's model.

It is rather difficult to believe that Smith has such a substantial advantage among young voters.

Merkley has had a highly successful few months both in polling and fundraising, so this particular poll (which still has Smith under 50% despite questions about its validity) shouldn't be cause for too much concern.

MS-Sen: The DSCC has taken to the airwaves in Mississippi, assailing incumbent Roger Wicker (R)'s votes on Medicare:

LA-Sen: The campaign of Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu has a new humorous website up hitting their opponent, John Kennedy, also known as the supreme king of flip-floppers.

CO-Sen: TPM on the recent mini-scandal regarding the Facebook page of Bob Schaffer's son Justin Schaffer (highlights of which included a picture of the Egyptian pyramids with the caption "Slavery Got Shit Done"):

Now, as you remember, back in April, unprompted, Schaffer touted the guest worker program in the Mariana Islands as a great model and one we should emulate here on the mainland -- notwithstanding the fact that the situation in the Marianas became notorious all over the world for sweat shop conditions, forced abortions, abusive workplace practices, sexual slavery and a whole bunch of other modern day workplace management best practices. He not only carried their water on Capitol Hill. He also went on one of Abramoff's junkets to the Islands to investigate claims of abuses (which he concluded didn't exist) and also parasail.

But here's the key thing. Back when we were looking into this in April, there was one thing that didn't quite compute. Unlike a lot of other Abramoff pals who stood up for the sex slavers on Capitol Hill, Schaffer didn't seem to have gotten much money out of Abramoff. In fact, virtually none.

So Paul Kiel and I had to consider the possibility that rather than being corrupt stooge willing to gloss over manifest outrages in exchange for a seat on the Abramoff gravy train, Schaffer may just have been ideologically pro-sweat shop and pro-slavery. And now Schaffer's son's endorsement of slavery on his Facebook page lends some new credence to this theory.

House Races

OH-15: A SUSA poll shows Democratic candidate Mary Jo Kilroy, who narrowly lost her 2006 race to incumbent Deborah Pryce, leading her current opponent, State Sen. Steve Stivers, by three points:

By Stivers' own words, this can't speak well of him or his candidacy:

Aug. 3--As he savored a cheeseburger with everything, state Sen. Steve Stivers was asked, "What is Mary Jo Kilroy's Achilles' heel?"

He didn't swallow the answer: "Have you ever met her?"

And then, "Voters want to vote for someone they like."

Huh. Nice guy.

They must really not like Steve Stivers, then, since he's the one losing.

MI-07, MI-13: Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick will be headed back to Congress after the toughest race of her career. Kilpatrick downed State Rep. Mary Waters and Sen. Martha Scott, winning with roughly 39% of the vote, to 36% for Waters and 25% for Scott.

"It was a close race and it came down to the wire, but there's only one winner," the Congressional Black Caucus Chairwoman said, according to the Detroit Free Press. "I'll be your Congresswoman until I decide to retire."

During the campaign, Waters made an issue of the fact that Kilpatrick has stood by her son, embattled Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, whose tenure in office has been stained by personal scandal. Most recently, Kwame Kilpatrick was indicted with eight counts following the aftermath of a whistle-blower trial.

It will be interesting to see if there is another strong primary challenge in 2010, perhaps again from Mary Waters. Any incumbent who wins with 39% in a primary has to be considered somewhat vulnerable. However, it's unclear how big an issue Kwame Kilpatrick's legal and ethical problems will play two years from now.

Also in Michigan, Senate Minority Leader Mark Schauer won his primary handily, thrashing 2006 nominee Sharon Renier, 66% to 34%. He'll face freshman Rep. Tim Walberg in the general election.

IL-11, TX-22: The DCCC is now running ads in Illinois' 11th District and Texas' 22nd District on behalf of Democrats Debbie Halvorson and Nick Lampson. SSP has the script of the Halvorson ad:

ANNCR: "The Middle Class is getting squeezed. Debbie Halvorson knows we're working harder and getting less, that's why she led the fight to lower prescription drug costs for Illinois seniors, and Halvorson helped give thousands of children and working families affordable health insurance. Now she wants to take our fight to Congress. She'll take on George Bush's Policies. And bring common sense back to our government. Debbie Halvorson, a fighter for us. The DCCC is responsible for the content of this advertisement."

The script of the Lampson ad has yet to be released. The ad buys are fairly inexpensive, around $100,000, but then, it's still early.

National: The infamous Freedom's Watch (check out the DCCC's The Real Freedom's Watch website)  has released a series of ads targeting the following Democrats around the country:

Rep. Nancy Boyda (KS-02)
Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (NH-01)
Rep. Nick Lampson (TX-22)
Rep. Chris Carney (PA-10)
Rep. Don Cazayoux (LA-06)
Mark Schauer (MI-07)
Mary Jo Kilroy (OH-15)
Walt Minnick (ID-01)
Kay Barnes (MO-06)
Eric Massa (NY-29)
Martin Heinrich (NM-01)
John Boccieri (OH-16)

Most of these are on radio, except for the Lampson ad (cable TV) and the Boyda ad (broadcast TV). Here's an example of one of the ads:

"70 percent of Americans are in favor of exploring for offshore oil. But new Congressman Don Cazayoux has opposed efforts to increase domestic energy production 10 times. No wonder he’s endorsed by a liberal special interest group that favors high gas prices," an announcer at the start of the 60-second spot targeting Cazayoux.

"Two years ago the Democrats said they had a plan to lower gas prices. But nothing’s been done," the ad continues. "And Cazayoux? Instead of staying in Washington to fix the problem, he was the deciding vote to send the House on a five-week recess. In Washington, Cazayoux was beholden to Nancy Pelosi and the liberal DC special interests. But when he goes back home, he sings a different tune."

It's been an eventful few months for the Jack Davis campaign. First, they succeeded in getting the "millionaires' amendment" struck down. Then came allegations of bribery against the Davis campaign. In the meantime, Davis flooded the radio airwaves with the worst campaign songs anyone has ever heard.

Now, witness the latest of Davis' alleged transgressions: the campaign is under investigation for voter fraud. From a press release from Davis' primary opponent, Orange to Blue candidate Jon Powers:

WILLIAMSVILLE, NY – Michael Violante, the Niagara County District Attorney, announced today that his office will be investigating claims of petition fraud committed by Jack Davis' campaign for Congress in New York's 26th District.

Yesterday, Niagara County Democratic Chairman Dan Rivera requested a formal investigation from Violante's office into "petition irregularities" in petitions circulated for Jack Davis by a member of his paid staff, Kelly Taylor. Violante today announced his office would investigate on the matter and begin interviewing witnesses.

"Jack Davis is using fraud and bribes so blatantly that the District Attorney has decided to investigate.  This behavior lacks honor and is unacceptable for a candidate for Congress," said Powers for Congress Campaign Manager John Gerken. "The voters of Western New York deserve a congressman who puts their interests first, not yet another congressman embroiled in scandals."

Here are the specifics of the accusations of voter fraud:

Niagara County Democratic Chairman, Dan Rivera, issued a letter to Michael Violante, Niagara County District Attorney asking him to look into two cases of petition irregularities, one of which directly involves the Davis campaign.

The questions come from a paid Davis staffer, Kelly Taylor, whose petitions for the Davis Campaign listed her as a signed witness. Nine affidavits were collected from petition signers saying Kelly Taylor did not bring them the petition or witness their signature. In many cases, it was a young man that came to their door.

Jon Powers faces one of the toughest primaries that any of our Orange to Blue candidates have seen this cycle, and one of the most throughly undesirable primary opponents. He faces a candidate of apparently limitless personal resources, one who seems to think that his personal fortune alone merits a seat in Congress. With accusations not only of voter fraud, but of outright bribery, swirling around the Davis campaign, it's worth asking whether a plutocrat like Davis is at all the kind of candidate we want representing our party in November.

So rather than Davis, what kind of Democratic candidate do we want?

Senator John Kerry wrote of Jon Powers, in his own diary today:

Why is this personal to me? Because I believe in the courage and character of a young man who was a platoon leader in the First Armored Division in Baghdad during the early years of the Iraq war.  His commanding officer described Jon as, "one of the most talented officers I have known in twenty-two years of service in the Army."

But Jon didn’t stop there – when he came home, Jon started War Kids Relief, a program to help the Iraqi children and give them resources and education to resist recruitment by radical organizations.  It’s only through efforts like that, reaching people in their local communities and being sensitive to local conditions, that we can move beyond the cycle of terrorism and radicalism. It’s an old cliché, but in this case it’s true: America always does well by doing good.

That's the kind of guy Jon Powers is.

So give what you can to Jon Powers. Help send the message that there is no room for corruption in our Democratic party. Help send the message that the nomination of our Democratic party cannot be bought. And help elect an earnest, thoughtful and dedicated progressive voice to the U.S. House.

We are trying to reach 200 contributions to Jon Powers by the end of today. Please go to the Orange to Blue ActBlue page and help elect this remarkable young candidate.

The Senate race in Georgia, once left for dead, just got a lot more interesting, as former state Rep. Jim Martin has won the Democratic primary runoff against DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones.

DSCC Chairman Chuck Schumer on Martin's victory:

“Georgians chose an impressive candidate today who has the experience and vision to change the direction of our nation. As a public servant under both a Democratic and a Republican Governor, Jim has a proven record of working across party lines, and he will be an effective and independent voice for Georgia families. This is a winnable race.”

With 97% of districts reporting, Martin leads 60% to 40%. That's a commanding victory which should inspire confidence in Martin's candidacy for the general election, in which he faces a tough but viable battle against incumbent Senator Saxby Chambliss. Martin is a candidate we can be proud of as progressives and Democrats, and he will be a serious and legitimate challenger to the senior Senator.

In Missouri:  The Republican nomination for Governor of Missouri has gone to U.S. Rep. Kenny Hulshof, who will face off against the favorite, Missouri's Democratic Attorney General Jay Nixon, in the general election.

Meanwhile, in Hulshof's old district, Blaine Luetkemeyer haswon the Republican nomination for MO-09, edging out state Rep. Bob Onder.

If you're curious, Brock Olivo finished a distant fourth, with 10% of the vote.

On the Democratic side, the AP has not called the race, but with 90% of the vote in, state Rep. Judy Baker has a 9-point lead over former Missouri House Speaker Steve Gaw, 42% to 33%. It will be extremely difficult for Gaw to win this race. If Baker is the candidate, it should prove to be an exciting and high-profile race between herself and Luetkemeyer.

In Kansas, the big news is that Phill Kline has lost his race:

Steve Howe defeated incumbent Phill Kline Tuesday night for the Republican nomination for district attorney in Johnson County, Kansas.

Howe collected 60 percent of the vote to Kline's 40 percent, according to complete but unofficial returns. He'll face Democrat Rick Guinn in November.

About 22.5 percent of registered voters turned out in Johnson County, the election office reported.

Kline made his reputation seeking to prosecute abortion providers in Kansas as the state's attorney general. He lost his bid for re-election in 2006 after the Kansas Supreme Court overturned his subpoenas for abortion records.

In the U.S. House race in the Second District, where former Rep Jim Ryun faces off against State Treasurer Lynn Jenkins for the right to do battle with Democratic Rep. Nancy Boyda, the race is too close to call. Jenkins leads by 2% with 93% of precincts reporting, but the AP has yet to call the race.

Finally, in Michigan, more of the same in Michigan's 13th District. Rep Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick faced the toughest challenge of her life, and leads state Rep. Mary Waters by just over a hundred votes at this juncture. It should remain too close to call until the morning.

NH-Sen: The New Hampshire Democratic Party has launched a new web site going after John Sununu and his pals for their history of sleaze.

Check out SununuDirtyTricks.org, the happy new companion to StopSununu.com.

Among their targets is Americans For Job Security, a shady third-party organization that served as a front for Sununu in his 2002 Senate race, when they spent over $1 million smearing his Democratic opponent, former New Hampshire Governor Jeanne Shaheen:

Americans for Job Security (AJS) is a shady front group that does John Sununu’s political dirty work. The group has long ties to John Sununu and his family, and they spent over $1 million delivering attacks against Gov. Shaheen in her 2002 race for U.S. Senate all so John Sununu could go to the Senate and vote with George Bush 90% of the time.

AJS is willing to break the law to do Sununu’s dirty work, so they’re refusing to disclose where they get their money. Sununu is funded by oil and gas companies, drug companies, and the insurance industry, but his attack dogs might be funded by illegal corporate donations or even money from overseas. Call Sununu at (202) 224-2841 and tell him to demand his buddies at AJS reveal who is funding their attacks.

Given the dirty tricks in the 2002 incarnation of the Sununu/Shaheen race (most notably the infamous phone-jamming scandal), Democrats everywhere should be most relieved at the New Hampshire party's vigilance.

KS-Sen: Jim Slattery has officially raised over $1 million this cycle, in less than five months of campaigning.

“This is an important financial milestone in my campaign for the US Senate,” Slattery said. “It demonstrates the viability of my candidacy and my ability to compete in the general election.”

Slattery has raised a total of $1,003,725 from 2,059 people including 1,441 Kansans in only 140 days.

His Republican opponent, incumbent Senator Pat Roberts, has quite a bit more than that, but this is to be expected:

Should Slattery win the Democratic primary on Tuesday, he will face incumbent Senator Pat Roberts. As of July 16th, Roberts had just under $3 million cash on hand.

“Pat Roberts has been in Washington for 40 years,” Slattery said. “As a result, all the special interests have contributed to his campaign, including over $300,000 from the oil and gas industry.”

Slattery continued, “I will not be able to match Roberts dollar for dollar, but all the money in the world won’t help Pat hide his abysmal voting record.

Slattery is the first serious Democratic Senate candidate in Kansas in dog's years, and has been surprisingly competitive so far in the bulk of polls on the race (most of which show him trailing the two-term incumbent Roberts by 10-12 points). He has a (very) outside shot at victory this fall if he can stay competitive in the money race, and he appears to be doing a decent job of that.

OK-Sen: TheTulsa World has a new poll from the University of Oklahoma on Oklahoma's Senate race, with December numbers listed in parentheses.

The trend lines, obviously, are favorable for Orange to Blue candidate Andrew Rice. Notably, this poll was taken prior to Rice's recent statewide ad buys, his first of the cycle.

Inhofe polling at 52% for the primary against an opponent with a limited statewide profile is not especially good news for him, even if Rice's support in this poll is basically the Democratic baseline

Wonky note from the poll: Rice's lead among Democrats is only 46-35 over Inhofe. Even in a state with a high percentage of conservative Democrats, that seems rather odd.

We noted last week that Rice had made a couple of high-profile hires in former DSCC and Clinton campaign staffers Phil Singer and Geri Prado. Roll Call also takes note, suggesting that this indicates the DSCC's particular interest in Rice's campaign.

Despite Rice’s underdog status, DSCC Chairman Charles Schumer (N.Y.) has been high on the candidate’s potential. The hiring of Singer and Prado could signal that the committee is taking a special interest in this race as the fall approaches.

Meanwhile, Andrew Rice liveblogged today over at theSenate Guru's place today.

AK-Sen: In the latest indicator of Ted Stevens' sense of entitlement, he apparently wants home-field advantage in his federal trial.

Lawyers for indicted Sen. Ted Stevens requested Monday to move the Alaska senator’s criminal case to his home state, a request that could have significant ramifications on his long political career.

Facing the toughest reelection bid of his four-decade Senate career, Stevens hopes to be acquitted in time for Alaska voters to decide to send him back to Washington for a seventh full term. Stevens has nearly universal name recognition in Alaska, where he is known for steering billions of dollars back home.

Stevens's lawyers filed papers Monday to move the case to the U.S. District Court for the District of Alaska, saying the "center of gravity" in the case lies within the senior Republican's home state.

The government opposes the motion and wants the case to stay in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia. The Justice Department has until Aug. 11 to respond to the transfer motion, and a hearing is set for Aug. 19.

Stevens is opposed by Orange to Blue Democrat Mark Begich.

House Races:

TX-07: In the latest indicator of his considerable fundraising prowess, Democrat Michael Skelly brought in $30,000 from over 200 individual donors on Friday.

For a House race in a red district, that's quite a day's work.

Houston, TX – Successful wind energy businessman and Congressional  candidateMichael Skelly raised more than $30,000 on Friday from over 200 individuals, demonstrating strong grassroots support from Houstonians looking for change in Washington.  To put that number in perspective, in a single day, the   Skelly campaign had well over half the individual donors that the (John) Culberson campaign had during the entire second quarter of 2008.

“This campaign is about the people of Houston,” said Skelly.  “It’s about Democrats, Republicans and Independents alike, all looking to put partisanship aside to confront the challenges that are most important to all of us.  Our campaign has always been powered by the grassroots support of people seeking a new voice in Washington.”

It's going to be awfully hard for Skelly or any Democrat to win in TX-07, but he sure won't lack for money as he tries to pull off the upset.

MI-13 It's primary day in Michigan, and the big question revolves around the future of longtime Detroit Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick, facing a two-headed primary challenge from state Sen. Martha Scott and state Rep. Mary Waters:

In the toughest race of her life, Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (D-Mich.) might make it across the finish line in Tuesday’s Democratic primary because she has split opposition.

The head of the Congressional Black Caucus has come under fire for staunchly supporting her son, Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick (D), who has been indicted on eight counts after a whistle-blower trial. The result was two primary challengers: state Sen. Martha Scott (D) and former state Rep. Mary Waters (D).

An EPIC-MRA poll of 400 likely voters published last week in the Detroit News predicted a close contest, with Kilpatrick leading Waters 33 percent to 29 percent, with Scott at 24 percent. Waters and Scott, to a lesser degree, have criticized Kilpatrick for supporting her son so vocally.

But despite what appears to be tight race from the poll, Kilpatrick campaign manager Bill McConico was confident about winning. “We’re going to get over 50 percent, period,” he said.

If the News poll is in fact accurate, it's anybody's game tonight.

NM-02: The GOP can't be thrilled with nominee Ed Tinsley, who is spending his hard-earned campaign cash on fundraising mailers...to his opponent, and other high-profile Democrats.

State Democratic Party spokeswoman Conchita Cruz said Monday that more than 100 of the Tinsley letters rolled into the party's office last week.

Several are addressed to prominent Democrats, including Lt. Gov. Diane Denish, Cruz said. She added that one of the letters was also sent directly to Harry Teague, Tinsley's opponent in the southern New Mexico congressional race.

"We won't be sending money back to Ed Tinsley," Cruz said with a laugh.

Good on the Tinsley campaign. I don't know what mailing lists they've got, but I sure am glad that they're spending their money...well, asking their opponent for money.

(H/T: NM FBIHOP)

AZ-03: John Shadegg is a crazy person.

House Republicans issued the boldest claim yet in their three-day energy protest, insinuating on Tuesday morning that their demonstration may in fact have already begun to lower gas prices.

“The market is responding to the fact that we are here talking,” said Republican Rep. John Shadegg.

“I think the market realizes that this kind of pressure may in fact lead to a change in policy.”

These people are United States Congressmen?

At least our boys in blue can keep their sense of humor about the pure unadulterated stupidity emanating from across the aisle:

"Britney Spears might buy that, but I don’t think Paris Hilton would," said one House Democratic leadership aide. "The GOP energy policy has led to higher gas and oil prices and Republicans just keep voting for more of the same."

Please, help out Orange to Blue candidate Bob Lord in his quest to give the good people of Arizona's Third District a serious-minded representative.

On the web:
Orange to Blue ActBlue Page

These aren't the highest-profile races on the national radar, but as Scout Finch wrote yesterday, there are some critical primary races in Missouri and Kansas which will be decided this evening.

We'll have the results once the races are decided tonight.

The biggest of the races is the Republican primary for Governor of Missouri, a two-person race between U.S. Rep Kenny Hulshof and State Treasurer Sarah Steelman.

The presumptive Democratic nominee is Missouri Attorney General Jay Nixon, who has consistently led both Hulshof and Steelman in independent polling.

Hulshof has had the edge over Steelman so far in the primary race, despite Steelman's statewide profile. The last SurveyUSA poll showed him leading Steelman, 45% to 33%.

The other key races in Missouri are the primary battles for the open seats left by Hulshof, Steelman and Nixon.

For Hulshof's House seat, there is a celebrated Republican battle between frontrunners Bob Onder and Blaine Luetkemeyer, and fellow Republicans Danie Moore and my main man Brock Olivo.

Onder is backed by the Club for Growth; he and Luetkemeyer have had an ugly primary so far, and it's the fervent hope of some Democrats that they could split the vote to the extent that Olivo or Moore could sneak in and win the nomination. This is highly unlikely, but would make for high comedy.

On the Democratic side, there are four serious candidates, as the St. Louis Post-Dispatch noted (as opposed to no quality candidatess on the GOP side). The frontrunners are Rep. Judy Baker and former State House Speaker Steve Gaw.

Jay Nixon's job as Attorney General, meanwhile, is contested by three Democrats; state Reps. Margaret Donnelly and Jeff Harris, and State Senator (and former Republican) Chris Koster.  From the Post-Dispatch:

Harris and Donnelly have spent much of their campaign questioning the Democratic credentials of Koster, a state senator from Raymore, who switched parties about this time last year.

Koster, meanwhile, has raised more money than the other two and produced slick television ads pushing his experience as a prosecutor.

Meanwhile, four Democrats square off in the State Treasurer's race, for the right to do battle with the awesomely named GOP state Rep. Brad Lager.

Finally, over in Kansas, there's a high-profile Republican race today for Johnson County District Attorney, where Steve Howe faces off against the one and only Phill Kline.

Of Kline, no one puts it better than Scout Finch:

Phill Kline.  Intolerant, wingnut, asshat extraordinaire in Johnson County, Kansas. The same Phill Kline that had been harassing women's clinics in Kansas and was defeated in the 2006 election for Kansas Attorney General. After his crushing defeat, the Kansas GOP stubbornly appointed him to the recently vacated Johnson County District Attorney position.  At the time, he promised that he would not seek re-election. Being the honorable man that he is, he recently filed for......re-election. He now faces Steve Howe in a Republican primary. Incidentally, Steve Howe and the rest of the experienced attorneys in the DA's office were unceremoniously fired, without cause, on Phill Kline's first day in office.

SurveyUSA's polling indicates that Steve Howe rates a slight edge in the race, leading Kline 52% to 44%. Here's hoping they've nailed this one. For anyone, even another Republican, has got to be better than Phill Kline, as Scout wrote:

On the way to breakfast Sunday morning, I passed a hand made yard sign that read "Please God --- Anybody but Kline."  Amen, neighbor....Amen.

It's not necessarily customary for us to watch Republican primaries in local races, but for Kline, we will make a special exception.

We'll post the results from all these races, once they are in.

Today, Georgia Democrats go to the polls to select the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate, for the race against incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss. Today's runoff election, which pits former state legislator Jim Martin against DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones, is a rare instance of a primary in which either candidate could win, but only one candidate stands any kind of chance of making the general election even slightly competitive.

That candidate is Jim Martin.

The public polling for the general election, such as it is, has indicated that Jones would be a disastrous candidate  in the general election, while Martin is competitive in polling right now. Jones' polling is so weak, in fact, and his personal history so controversial, that Swing State Project goes so far as to call him a "walking train wreck" of a general-election candidate.

Vernon Jones is, by all accounts, highly intelligent, extremely charismatic and a top-notch campaigner. He is also a candidate with a history of accusations of violence against women (and one of rape), and a candidate whose greatest political legacy is having endorsed and voted twice for President Bush.

Hardly the political judgment one would seek in a Democratic candidate for federal office.

As the Atlanta Journal-Constitution put it:

He is a man of large talents and large flaws, but those flaws of temperament, character and judgment are so large as to disqualify him from consideration for higher office.

Meanwhile, here is the Journal-Constitution's recent endorsement of Jim Martin:

As a Vietnam veteran with a long and admirable career in public service and the law, Martin has the background and credentials to represent Georgia well. As a state legislator, Martin was known as a workhorse, someone who knew the issues and who could work with colleagues to get things done. That same combination of wisdom, hard work and collegiality served Martin well as head of the state Department of Human Services under Democratic Gov. Roy Barnes and then Republican Gov. Sonny Perdue.

I had the opportunity to speak with Jim Martin yesterday, and found him to be exceptionally thoughtful, genuine and frank. He noted the recent difficulties that Democrats have had running statewide in Georgia, but stressed that Georgia had been a competitive state until recently, even at the presidential level (Bill Clinton won the state in 1992, and lost narrowly in 1996). He noted that part of the reason for the strong Republican trend in Georgia over the last decade has been the striking Republican success at registering new voters, especially as the state's population expanded rapidly over the past 15 years. The presidential campaign of Barack Obama is intent not only on campaigning in Georgia this fall but on registering half a million new Democratic voters. If they can actually succeed in so doing, this will be a tremendous boon not only to Obama's campaign, but to the U.S. Senate nominee, whoever he may be.

He understands the challenges he would face (should he win today) against an entrenched incumbent like Saxby Chambliss, one who, as Tondee's Tavern noted, has already reserved a stunning $5.2 million of advertising time for the fall elections. He also understands that as one of the chief enablers of the disastrous Bush economy, Chambliss has been personally responsible for the squeeze on working Georgians. In fact, Martin is about as sharp a contrast to Saxby Chambliss as one could hope for from a Democratic nominee; he opposes telecom immunity, for example, along with the 2005 bankruptcy bill. You can guess how the senior Senator from Georgia voted on these.

So what will happen tonight? It's difficult to say, given how low turnout is expected to be. The Journal-Constitution pegs turnout at 10% or less:

Turnout is expected to be razor-thin for Tuesday's runoff in which DeKalb CEO Vernon Jones and Jim Martin face off to see which candidate will run against Republican U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss and Libertarian Allen Buckley in November.

Only 18 percent of the state's registered voters bothered to go to the polls for the July 15 primary that saw the five-man Democratic field in the Senate race trimmed to just Jones and Martin. Come Tuesday, the primary's low turnout could be cut in half, or even less, in the largely under-the-radar race.

Jones led the first round of the primary with 41% of the vote, but Martin (who finished with 34%), received the endorsements of his two closest rivals, Dale Cardwell and Rand Knight). We'll have the results when they're in tonight.

Lots of new ads going up this week. Turn on your TV's and enjoy the fireworks.

CO-Sen: Bob Schaffer's  (R) campaign manager (and George Allen's former consigliere), the unfortunately named Dick Wadhams, has just stepped in it in a fashion similar to his old boss. Per the DSCC, here's a fun story about Wadhams mouthing off to a reporter from the Rocky Mountain news:

Long-suffering Colorado Republican Senate candidate Bob Schaffer suffered another setback Saturday when his campaign manager Dick Wadhams – who earned national fame for guiding former Senator George Allen from a presidential frontrunner to a national laughingstock – suffered his own “macaca meltdown,” telling Lynn Bartels of the Rocky Mountain News, “We're going to shove a bunch of 30-second ads up his a** on this issue over the course of the campaign.”  Wadhams’ bizarre, vulgar outburst came in response to Democratic Senate candidate Mark Udall voting against a Congressional adjournment – as he had pledged to do, and, oddly, how Schaffer himself had urged.  There was no immediate response from the many conservative organizations with ties to Schaffer who have long decried a breakdown in the country’s morality.

The DSCC, of course, is having loads of fun with this:

“Poor Bob Schaffer just can’t stop sabotaging his own campaign.  First he gets involved in a series of scandals, and now his campaign manager is having his own ‘macaca meltdown,’” said DSCC spokesman Matthew Miller.  “We know this is a difficult time for Wadhams.  August 11 is the two-year anniversary of George Allen’s Macaca moment, and the memory alone must be causing Dick to break out in hives.  We can only assume that Bob Schaffer’s friends on the far right will be disappointed with his campaign’s sleazy comments.  This sort of obscenity has no place in a campaign that should be about the issues.”

Wadhams, who managed John Thune's successful 2004 campaign against Tom Daschle, has been referred to in the past as the heir apparent to Karl Rove, a comparison he welcomes. He's well-known as one of the most aggressive and unpleasant campaigners out there:

In those races, Wadhams didn't hesitate to run attack ads and regularly belittle his opponents. His approach mirrors not only Rove's but also that of the late Lee Atwater, creator of the Willie Horton ads that helped sink Michael Dukakis. While most campaign managers are defensive about going negative, however—Atwater, for example, claimed he got the idea for the Horton ads from Al Gore's primary campaign—Wadhams is entirely unapologetic. "There's nothing wrong with going negative," he once argued. "Staying positive is a disservice to the voters because differences between the candidates are never revealed." When Wadhams worked for Allard in 1996 and 2002, his two-time opponent Democrat Tom Strickland was widely regarded as the smarter candidate. But Wadhams successfully cast Strickland as an untrustworthy "lawyer-lobbyist" and Allard as a likable, low-key country vet. When it turned out Strickland had made a tidy profit from the IPO of Global Crossing—a company that figured prominently in the corporate scandals of 2002—Wadhams was well-positioned to pounce. Strickland was "up to his mustache in corporate scandal," he proclaimed, and "probably the dirtiest candidate in America."

It's quite a thrill to see Wadhams called on the carpet for his tastelessness.

KY-Sen: As one might expect in any race involving such a canny and ruthless politician as Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, the Kentucky Senate race has already taken a turn for the ugly. However, Democratic candidate Bruce Lunsford shows every indication that he's up for the challenge of a political brawl with the senior Senator:

Warming up for his first face-to-face campaign confrontation with Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell on Saturday, Lunsford promised a fiesty challenge to the incumbent. Lunsford criticized oil companies for scooping up gargantuan profits while many people struggle to afford gasoline.

"We have never had a time in this country where more of the wealth of the country ... transferred from the middle class of this country to one industry," Lunsford said in speaking to a few hundred people at the West Kentucky Building and Construction Trades luncheon.

Notably, even former political rivals of Lunsford's are strongly with him in this race, like Kentucky Governor Steve Beshear:

Gov. Steve Beshear said that Bush and McConnell, along with other Republicans, have "made a miserable mess" for the country. He said they were to blame for high fuel prices by failing to develop a comprehensive energy policy to make the country more energy self-sufficient.

"They've allowed us to become captive to the Middle East," he said.

There's nothing like a McConnell - style ubervillain to bring people together.

OK-Sen: Here's the new ad from Orange to Blue candidate Andrew Rice, entitled, simply, "Steffanie". It refers to Rice's signature legislation in the Oklahoma Senate, and to the sad story of a young woman who fought for the right to decent health care:

MN-Sen: Here's another new ad, this one from Orange to Blue candidate Al Franken:

ID-Sen: Here's Larry LaRocco's first TV ad, which will hopefully help to close a surprisingly thin ten-point gap:

Hopefully, getting on the air will help LaRocco close a stunningly thin ten-point margin in Idaho's first competitive Senate race in decades.

In other news, LaRocco's opponent does not like us. From the campaign manager (and son) of LaRocco's opponent, Lt. Gov Jim Risch:

"(Jim Risch) draws a very distinct line between legitimate media and the bloggers that are left-wing hatemongers," Jason Risch wrote. "The blogging done by legitimate media sources are not in the same category as the left-wing hatemongers. He considers the legitimate media, legitimate — regardless of the medium used to convey news."

MS-Sen: Having watched the candidates in action at the Neshoba County Fair, the Clarion-Ledger sounds pretty impressed with Democrat Ronnie Musgrove...and not so much with Republican incumbent Roger Wicker:

In Wicker, the Republicans have a candidate who isn't particularly comfortable in the role of candidate.

Even with a packed house under the Founder's Square pavilion with most of the seats taken by people bused in for the purpose of providing a pro-Wicker background, Wicker isn't the most charismatic candidate.

On the other hand:

Even outnumbered and facing hecklers, Musgrove stood in there pitching and stayed on message. He even turned the old Ronald Reagan ("Are you better off than you were four years ago?") question around on Wicker and did so with success.

...

Musgrove is a better retail politician than is Wicker. That's not a knock on Wicker, it's simply a fact. Musgrove is a people person. Wicker is more reserved.

The Clarion-Ledger goes on to note that this is the first really competitive Senate race in Mississippi in decades, and that for once, the Democratic candidate not only has an outside chance at victory, but an excellent chance.

House Races

LA-04: From Louisiana, some exciting (if slightly deceptive) polling news from the campaign of Democrat Paul Carmouche. Via press release:

Paul Carmouche begins this campaign with 60% name recognition and a 4-to-1 positive/negative ratio associated with his name. By contrast, the three Republicans candidates, Chris Gorman, John Fleming, and Jeff Thompson, have a name identification ranging between 17% and 33%. They are only known by the core Republican voters.

When paired with each of these three opponents on a trial heat, Paul Carmouche defeats all three, with leads ranging from 13 to 19 points. Also, Independent candidate Chester “Catfish” Kelley holds 5% of the vote in all three match-ups.

Now, the campaign doesn't release the actualm numbers, which seems to indicate a huge number of undecideds. Also, Carmouche's far superior name recognition is one possible reason for his big leads.

Still, there is also reason for optimism:

In the race for U.S. Senate, Mary Landrieu wins the support of a solid majority of voters in the fourth Congressional District with 55%, and her opponent, John Kennedy receives support of less than 40% of the electorate.

The political environment in the fourth Congressional District indicates the voters are ready for a new direction in the country. Seventy-six percent (76%) of the voters say the country is headed in the wrong direction. Sixty-five percent (65%) of the voters say that America cannot afford to stay in Iraq on a long-term basis because of its drain on our economy. A majority of voters volunteer the biggest problem facing the country is jobs and the economy. All this data indicates that the voters believe there is a need for a new direction in this country.

Landrieu polling that well, coupled with the obvious dissatisfaction with the Bush years, indicates that this is a fertile environment for a strong Democratic challenge in this R+6.5 district.

NY-29: Here's the first ad of the cycle from Orange to Blue candidate Eric Massa:

NC-08: And one from Larry Kissell:

WA-08: And to close, a 60-second biographical spot from Orange to Blue candidate Darcy Burner:

KS-02: The Republican primary in Kansas' 2nd District is tomorrow. CQ Politics has a good article on the Republican race for the right to oppose Democratic Rep. Nancy Boyda:

Republican former Rep. Jim Ryun is seeking a rematch with Democrat Nancy Boyda , who ended his five-term House tenure in 2006 with a close upset victory in Kansas’ usually Republican 2nd Congressional District. Yet that showdown is not certain, as Ryun faces tough competition in Tuesday’s 2nd District primary from state Treasurer Lynn Jenkins.

While the decision of the district’s rank-and-file Republican voters is still up in the air, Ryun is clearly the preferred candidate of most of the national party figures and sympathetic organizations that have invested in the contest.

Jenkins is perceived as the pseudo-moderate one in the primary, which may hurt her:

Both Ryun and Jenkins are promoting conservative agendas that include no amnesty for illegal immigrants, a reduction in spending and lower taxes, and support for gun owners’ rights. This is a virtual imperative for a Republican candidate, given the predominance of conservative voters in the party’s primaries in the state.

“In Kansas, if you position yourself as a moderate Republican in the primary, you may as well say ‘I’m also on a suicide mission,’” said Bob Beatty, a political scientist at Washburn University in Topeka, the state capital and the 2nd District’s largest city. “Once you get to the general, that’s something you may want to work on.”

Jenkins has faced a challenge, though, in eroding the strong support Ryun typically received in the past from strongly conservative voters, including those who give high priority to social issues. Ryun has campaigned by portraying Jenkins as less conservative than she purports to be, and has strongly criticized her record on fiscal issues.

Frankly, I'd  be surprised if Jenkins managed to win. Ryun has held a consistent polling lead, and Jenkins certainly seems, from a distance, like she is running a much less aggressive campaign than Ryun is.

On the web:

Orange to Blue ActBlue Page

AK-Sen: The good news just keeps coming in Alaska. From Ivan Moore Research, who polled the race in June pre-Stevens indictment, and have now done so again:

It's tough to see how Stevens can come back from that deficit, short of an acquittal. Even if he does get an acquittal, the poll indicates he was trailing prior to the indictment.

Will Stevens be the candidate for the Republicans? Will he survive his primary? It sure looks like it:

Everything is coming up Begich these days.

NC-Sen: The DSCC is out with a new ad hitting Elizabeth Dole:

NC-Gov: In one of the hottest gubernatorial races in the country, Democrat and Lieutenant Governor Bev Perdue leads Republican (and mayor of Charlotte) Pat McCrory by a decent margin, according to PPP:

Good trend lines, obviously. This is a race between two very strong candidates (McCrory was one of the best GOP recruits at any level this cycle), so it's quite nice to see a poll like this one out.

IL-14: Apparently, dairy magnate and perennial candidate Jim Oberweis is the new Abraham Lincoln.

He said so himself:

Oberweis resists saying where his breaking point is. The mounting losses and the public sneers do hurt him, Trish Oberweis says, but he seems to view them less as signs than as additional obstacles on his path to inevitable political office. "There was a guy about 130 or 150 years ago who had several losses before he won," he says. "I can't quite remember his name, but he went on to become the president of the United States. His first name was Abraham. What was his last name again?"

Hmm. I suppose that makes some sense. Except that people, you know, actually liked Lincoln.

CT-04: Jim Himes' primary opponent, Lee Whitnum, on Afghanistan:

And on bloggers:

Ugh.

ID-01: New ads from Democrat Walt Minnick:

Short, but quite sweet.

Don Cravins, Jr. (LA-07
Jill Derby (NV-02)
Vic Wulsin (OH-02)
Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-03)
Tom Perriello (VA-05)
Judy Feder (VA-10)

There's been quite a bit of news around Donald Cravins of late. Cravins was a prize DCCC recruit into the LA-07 race, challenging incumbent Republican Charles Boustany for a seat that had until recently belonged to Democrat Chris John.

CQ Politics just today changed their rating of their race to "Republican Favored", indicating the potential strength of a Cravins candidacy. Though he enters the race late, Cravins has a solid political base as a state senator:

Cravins seems certain, at least, to far surpass the 29 percent vote share won by 2006 Democratic nominee Mike Stagg, a little-known and underfinanced candidate. Cravins has warmed up for the House contest by winning a state House seat in 2004, and then winning in 2006 to succeed his namesake father, Don Cravins Sr., in the state Senate. The elder Cravens, who now is mayor of the 7th District city of Opelousas, ran for the congressional seat in 2004 but was eliminated by finishing a close third behind Boustany and Democratic Rep. Willie Landry Mount under the single-ballot primary system then used but since abandoned by Louisiana.

The younger Cravins’ state Senate district, which takes in Opelousas and part of Lafayette, gives him a political base that he stands a good chance of expanding by appealing to a heavily Democratic constituency of his fellow African-Americans, who make up a quarter of the 7th District’s population.

Cravins, running in a district with a strong overall conservative lean, also will emphasize some of his more conservative positions, including his support for gun owners’ rights. Before Boustany won the 2004 race for the seat Democratic Rep. Chris John left open to pursue a Senate campaign that failed, southwestern Louisiana had a longstanding, unbroken tradition of voting conservative Democrats into the House.

As for Jill Derby, she ran an unexpectedly strong campaign in a solidly Republican district against Republican Dean Heller. Derby subsequently took a position as chairwoman of the Nevada Democratic Party, but opted for another run earlier this year (she was widely considered one of, if not the only candidate who could make it a race).

It's an unforgiving district - Bush carried 57% of the vote in both 2000 and 2004 in Nevada's Second - but Derby lost by only five points in 2006, 50% to 45%. Heller has not had a stellar freshman cycle in Congress, and Derby's internal polling likely suggests that she has a decent shot once again.

Neither Cravins nor Derby was a huge surprise on this list, but perhaps the longest-awaited addition is that of Dr. Vic Wulsin, running once again in OH-02 against Daredevil Jean Schmidt.

On paper, Wulsin looks like an obvious choice for Red to Blue. She lost just 51% to 49% in an overwhelmingly Republican district in 2006, and her fundraising has outstripped Schmidt's all year. The DCCC's reluctance to add this race previously is understandable, though, given the district's R+13 tilt.

This is certainly a race to be excited about, given Schmidt's controversial political history, and Wulsin's unabashed progressive stances. It's safe to say that Wulsin is likely the most progressive candidate who could have any kind of reasonable shot at winning in an R+13 district such as this one.

Kathy Dahlkemper is an interesting choice, and her inclusion on this is rather exciting for those who had nearly given up on this race prior to the primary. The original frontrunner in this district, Erie City Councilman Kyle Foust, proved to be a fundraising dud, and lost the primary badly to Dahlkemper, who, while a political neophyte, at least showed the ability to raise a decent amount of money.

Still, while the district is favorable at R+1.6, it was unclear for some time whether Dahlkemper would have the political skills to beat incumbent Phil English. However, Dahlkemper's internal polling numbers show the race deadlocked, an inspiring sign given English's far superior name recognition.

Tom Perriello is rather well known on Daily Kos for his fascinating background in international affairs (having worked in Sierra Leone, Liberia and Afghanistan), and for waging a historically strong campaign against Republican Virgil Goode, in a district that hasn't seen a strong Democratic challenge since...well, since Virgil Goode was a Democrat.

Perriello has touted his Catholic faith as determining his commitment to social justice, which seems like a reasonable play in this rural Virginia district. His fundraising has been top-notch, as he's raised even more so far this cycle than Goode has.

Finally, Judy Feder returns for a second round against Republican Frank Wolf after her 57-43 loss in 2006. This is an exceptionally bold and gutsy play by the DCCC, as not only did Feder lose her 2006 match by a decent margin (though the race was much closer than most of Wolf's have been in the past), but the district, at R+5.5, is not exactly a swing district.

This should be seen as a considerable vote of confidence in Feder as a candidate. Like Perriello, her fundraising has been exceptional this cycle (she's raised well over a million dollars), which may be a central reason for the optimism.

Conservative Icon Tom McClintock sure doesn't waste any time. Not only is he currently running for Congress against Orange to Blue candidate Charlie Brown, but he has open campaign accounts for 2010 bids for Lieutenant Governor of California, and the California State Board of Equalization.

Give the man credit; at least he's keeping all his options open.  

In fact, he is continuing to raise money for those bids, even as he runs for Congress. From a Charlie Brown press release:

Since the beginning of the year--and even after he announced his exploratory committee for Congress-- Tom McClintock spent over $50,000 for his potential 2010 campaign for California State Board of Equalization and raised over $32,000 during this time period.  These figures include 3 contributions to his 2010 statewide campaign fund on the same day he announced his congressional bid for CA-04, and thousands more in the months that followed---including a contribution from tobacco giant Reynolds American.

Reminiscent of Congressman John Doolittle, Senator McClintock also made a $15,000 donation marked "charity" to his own political organization---"Tom McClintock's Citizens for the California Republic."

Well, apparently McClintock thinks that furthering his own political career is a form of charity:

Earlier this month, after it was reported that the state campaign committees were still open, Senator McClintock told the Grass Valley Union (7/21) that he was not actively raising money for the committees.  McClintock's Finance Director told the El Dorado Mt. Democrat (7/16) that all the money from the committees was being donated to charity.

His latest FPPC Reports confirm that neither statement was correct.

I don't know whether he's planning on winning or losing his current race, but he clearly has his eyes on yet another one. Which is understandable; running statewide seems to be something of an addiction for the Conservative Icon, as he has lost four previous statewide bids for various office.

In any case, since he clearly has no real desire to go to Washington, hit the Orange to Blue page and help Charlie Brown hang another loss on the Conservative Icon's neck.

AK-Sen: I'm sure more than a few of you have thought of the doomsday scenario: what if indicted Sen. Ted Stevens doesn't win his primary?

Well, Rasmussen has polled Democrat (and Orange to Blue candidate) Mark Begich against Stevens' two primary challengers, Dave Cuddy and Vic Vickers (who desperately needs a nickname).

The news is good. While Begich leads Stevens by 13 points, 50% to 37%, he does even better against Dave Cuddy:  

Meanwhile, Vic Vickers barely registers on the radar:

Vickers' name recognition is virtually nonexistent, which is unsurprising, as he's lived in Alaska since January. Of 2008.

Meanwhile, not only has Gov. Sarah Palin removed her name from consideration for a possible Senate run (in the unlikely event that Stevens should win the primary and then drop out), but so has her Lieutenant Governor (and current House candidate), Sean Parnell.

This is not very good for Alaska Republicans, to say the least. It's either Stevens, or two guys who are polling worse than he is.

The Anchorage Daily News reports that Republicans are casting about for anyone they can find:

Former Alaska Republican Lt. Gov. Loren Leman said he's been getting calls since the indictment from people asking if he'd be willing to enter the race.

"They were concerned. To a person they don't want to see Mark Begich as the United States senator representing Alaska," said Leman. "And neither do I."

Unfortunately, since Stevens is unlikely to both win the primary and subsequently drop out before his trial, Leman is out of luck.

OR-Sen: Gordon Smith, ever the weasel, is out with a new ad in an effort to establish his "bipartisan credentials", as mcjoan wrote earlier, in which he happily name-drops the last two Democratic nominees as pals of his.

It's unfortunate that Smith wasted so much time and effort backing the Bush agenda, then, if he truly is so comfortable in their company.

Smith has given back the campaign cash he received from Ted Stevens, it seems. But he's keeping some of Stevens' money, it seems...money which ultimately went to his personal coffers. From Blue Oregon:

To recap: He's donating to charity the $10,000 his campaign received in 2007. But there's another $10,000 that went to "pay down" his "campaign debt" from 1996 - and since that debt was owed to himself personally, it went directly into Gordon's pocket.

Now, why would Ted Stevens give Gordon Smith $10,000 to pay down a decades-old campaign debt that would just go into Smith's golfing and nice-suits fund?

Let's dig into the details.

On March 2, 2005, Stevens gave Smith $5000 for his 1996 campaign fund.

On October 20, 2005, Smith voted for the Bridge to Nowhere, a Stevens pet project - $200+ million to build a bridge that would serve the fifty people on Gravina Island.

Smith subsequently cast the tiebreaking Senate vote on ANWR drilling, which is a nifty little "Thanks, Ted" moment. It's not surprising for Smith, whose well-cultivated "responsible moderate" imae so often belies the weasel within.

NC-Sen: BlueNC reports on Elizabeth Dole's residency problem.

Namely, that The Watergate is not in North Carolina. As you know.

The Doles have been residents of The Watergate since their marriage in 1975. Bob Dole has owned apartment #112 – a first-floor, one-bedroom since before the Republicans burglarized the Watergate Hotel in 1972.

...

For the past 33 years, the Doles have been joined by many of Washington’s most famous and infamous residents in calling the Watergate home. Living at The Watergate puts Liddy Dole within minutes of the heart of political and social action in Washington, D.C. This makes me wonder why Dole would ever plan to leave the convenience and excitement of living near the hub of the political world. But, leave it she must.

You see, to be a qualified registered voter in North Carolina and to maintain that status when temporarily out of the state, Dole must not only maintain a residence in North Carolina, but she must intend to come back to the state to live.

Apparently, in order for Dole to be eligible for residence under North Carolina law, she actually has to intend to return to the state someday. Thing is, she's never really expressed an interest in so doing (least of all when the Senate is not in session, and everyone else goes "home").

TX-Sen: Rasmussen's latest shows that despite a serious fundraising disadvantage, Orange to Blue candidate Rick Noriega remains competitive with Big Bad John Cornyn in red Texas:

Noriega's struggle, as it has been throughout the race, is to raise enough money to close that gap. Cornyn, for his part, seemingly has more money than God, but Noriega, with $916K on hand, has enough for a couple of days of statewide ad buys in Texas.

There's clearly an opening for Noreiga, if he can pull together the scratch to stay competitive.

National: Senate Guru reports that the NRSC is sitting on quite a bit of Ted Stevens' money.

Quite a bit, meaning, $725,000 worth since 2000.

With the NRSC still far behind the boys in blue in terms of fundraising, this is bad news indeed, and puts them in a rather unfortunate position in terms of how to deal with it.

House Races

TX-07, TX-10: Roll Call has a piece on the two hottest Congressional races in Texas: the 7th District Race, where Democrat Michael Skelly takes on Republican incumbent John Culberson, and the 10th District race, where Larry Joe Doherty opposes Republican incumbent Michael McCaul.

Culberson’s 7th district encompasses much of Houston’s western suburbs and is among the most conservative in a state that remains a Republican stronghold. But Culberson’s opponent, businessman Michael Skelly, has attempted to position himself as a conservative Democrat and has vowed to spend $1 million of his own money on the race. As of June 30, he had nearly doubled the incumbent in cash on hand.

McCaul’s 10th district, stretching from greater Houston’s solidly conservative Harris County in the east to the Austin region’s Democratic-leaning Travis County in the west, has the potential to be politically problematic for Republicans. But in attorney Larry Joe Doherty (D), McCaul is facing a challenger whose positions on key issues are unlikely to appeal to the GOP and conservative independent voters he’ll need to win in a district that still leans Republican.

While Roll Call is rather pessimistic (and for good reason, given the strongly Republican recent history of these districts), the DCCC is thinking positive:

"Even in Texas, one of the reddest states in the country, people are fed up," DCCC spokeswoman Kyra Jennings said. "Combine this desire for change with the strong campaigns both Michael Skelly and Larry Joe Doherty are running, and it offers Democrats unique opportunities in Texas this year."

The strength of Skelly and Doherty's candidacies certainly does speak to the wealth of opportunities available for Democrats this fall. TX-07 and TX-10 have been solid Republican strongholds ever since the 2003 redistricting; to elect Democrats in these districts is to fundamentally change the map in a way Tom DeLay could never have dreamed when he drew them.

AZ-03: No surprise here: John Shadegg finds Congress boring.

In so many words.

"I love this," Shadegg told reporters up in the press gallery afterward. "Congress can be so boring. ... This is a kick."

Well, John, nobody's twisting your arm to stick around. Orange to Blue candidate Bob Lord certainly isn't.

We wrote yesterday on John Shadegg's delusions of grandeur (U.S. Senator under a President McCain...not bloody likely). It's clear that he has a different job in mind than serving as the fine Representative of Arizona's 3rd District.

He even already tried to retire once this year.

Maybe he ought to surrender the job to someone who wants it, instead of pulling this Brett Favre act.

OH-16: Republican State Sen. Kirk Schuring has been a reliable foot soldier for disgraced former Governor Bob Taft on energy issues.

Now, as a candidate for the U.S. House, Schuring has a splendid plan for relieving the pressure of gas prices on middle-class citizens: more handouts to Big Oil. From a press release by the campaign of Schuring's Democratic opponent, State Sen. John Boccieri:

Canton, OH - On the same day that Exxon Mobil reported the largest quarterly profit of any U.S. company ever, Kirk Schuring announced that the centerpiece of his "economic plan" is cutting Exxon Mobil's taxes and increasing their profits.

The world's six largest oil companies raked in a combined $52 billion in profits this quarter-roughly $400,000 per minute-while the price of gas climbed even higher for America's families.

In an unfortunately timed announcement yesterday, Sen. Schuring attempted to explain to hard-working Americans that the way to turn around our economy is by continuing President Bush's policies of giveaways to big oil and tax cuts for corporate executives who are collecting obscene profits while middle class incomes stagnate.

"While middle class families fight to hold on to jobs, health care and their homes in a struggling economy, Sen. Schuring is talking about cutting corporate taxes for the oil companies and executives who are funding his campaign," U.S. Congressional Candidate John Boccieri said today. "The last seven years have shown what happens when politicians put special interests ahead of America's interests. Now it's time to create jobs and cut taxes for the families who need it the most."

I can't think of anything more disastrous for middle-class citizens of Ohio than yet another Republican Representative who thinks that the solution to the oil crisis is to dig an even deeper hole with the oil companies.

NY-26: More from the Jack Davis campaign. Apparently, Orange to Blue candidate Jon Powers' primary opponent doesn't just stop at horrendous campaign songs:

CA-04: Orange to Blue candidate Charlie Brown blogged on Daily Kos today, outlining his energy plan.

The bottom line is that there is no easy solution that will provide immediate relief to our families from rising energy costs. The facts are clear. We use 25% of the world’s produced oil but hold only 3% of the world’s reserves.

And while this might all seem like bad news, there is a silver lining.

The current energy crisis provides us with the single greatest economic opportunity this country has seen since the industrial revolution if we are prepared to act.  If we are prepared to overcome this challenge the way we have so many before---with a comprehensive solution that increases domestic energy supply, puts speculators and OPEC countries on notice that America is serious about energy independence, and invests in good old fashioned American innovation and know how.

That’s why I am calling for a $100 billion, 7 year "Apollo" project to move the U.S. Government towards energy independence, and to jump-start the entire renewable energy market and economy in America.

On the web:

Orange to Blue ActBlue Page

I swear, Republican straw-man fearmongering will never cease to amaze me.

Republican Rep. Tim Walberg of Michigan's 7th District, running a tight race against Democrat Mark Schauer, was the only member of the House Education Labor and Committee to vote against reauthorizing Head Start.

Considering there are 43 members of the committee, this is rather significant. So naturally, more than a few people were peeved:

This made the Walberg campaign sad, so they responded with their best defense: "we fear the Wiccans, and their lawsuits".

In other words, say a Baptist or a Catholic church wanted to continue to offer its Head Start program and a Muslim or "a Wiccan from a coven in Ann Arbor" wanted to apply for a job to teach there, now it couldn't discriminate based on religious grounds anymore, or vice versa.

He said he offered an amendment that would have made that change, but it didn't get any traction.

He said he doesn't oppose Head Start, but by keeping that provision in the bill, he said religious organizations might decide it's better to get rid of Head Start.

Walberg said he didn't initiate the efforts, but was contacted by people in his district that were concerned about this provision.

It would also open all of them to lawsuits, because the Wiccan, or the Catholic or the Muslim who wasn't hired, could say it was because of their religious beliefs, he said.

So basically, Walberg voted against Head Start because...he is afraid of the potential complications of Wiccans teaching in Catholic churches or something. Or their mean Wiccan lawsuits, anyway.

Of course.

Nearby, Rep. Joe Knollenberg has bigger things on his mind than Walberg does, bigger even than his difficult reelection race against Democrat Gary Peters.

Knollenberg is busy protecting our families from Asian invaders. Seriously.

Witness what happens when you do a Google blog search.

Now, when you actually click on Knollenberg's blog, of course, he's wiped all mentions of "Asian invaders". The title is now "Protecting our Families from Harmful Products".

Exactly the same thing, you know.

I don't know what he's trying to pull, but it sure looks ugly. As Swing State Project's James L. writes:

This sort of thing -- especially coming from a United States congressman -- is disgusting.

Indeed.

One has to wonder what the hell is wrong with these Michigan Republicans.

On the web:

Mark Schauer for Congress
Gary Peters for Congress

AK-Sen: Kos wrote earlier on Rasmussen's new AK-Sen numbers. They are impressive:

Stevens' trial is to be on September 24, less than two months from now.

Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens pleaded not guilty to corruption charges Thursday and received an unusually speedy trial date, which he hopes will clear his name before voters consider re-electing him in November.

Stevens, a Capitol Hill bulldozer accustomed to winning political battles, wrangled control of the normally sluggish judicial process. The Senate's longest-serving Republican faces a tough re-election fight and made it clear Thursday that he does not want his seven-count indictment getting in the way.

"He'd like to clear his name before the election," attorney Brendan Sullivan told U.S. District Judge Emmet G. Sullivan. Sullivan added: "This is not a complex case. It should be one that moves quickly."

Until and unless Stevens does get an acquittal, this race should be considered "Leans Democratic".

MS-Sen: For the first time in a long time, a poll is out with less than desirable results for Democratic candidate Ronnie Musgrove. From Rasmussen, with June numbers in parentheses:

This is not a bad poll. It's within the margin of error of Rasmussen's previous polls in Mississippi. Also, this particular poll seems a bit odd (the same poll shows Mississippi black voters going 100-0 for Obama, which is unlikely).

Cotton Mouth Blog notes another potential problem with the poll:

There is one major flaw with this poll. Being that this is a special election, there will be no reference to party on the ballot. The candidates will NOT be identified as Republican or Democratic in the polling booth. This poll erroneously identifies their parties, which has to be worth a few points to Roger Wicker.

If Rasmussen did use party ID, that is a possible liability, indeed.

Even if this poll is spot-on, a six-point deficit is a decent position for Musgrove, given Wicker's recent ad campaign in the state.

The DSCC is currently advertising on Musgrove's behalf, and hopefully we will conduct his own ad blitz shortly.

NC-Sen: It seems everyone's backing away from Ted Stevens at this point.

John Ensign, NRSC chairman, certainly is:

Uh oh. Here's another sign that top Republicans are backing away from Sen. Ted Stevens: Roll Call reports that NRSC chairman John Ensign refused to give a definite answer when asked if he was endorsing Stevens for re-election.

"I'm not going to make any comment," Ensign said. "There's a process in place and we're going to wait to see how that process plays out."

So is Mike Johanns in Nebraska:

A shelter for domestic violence victims will receive the $6,000 in campaign contributions that Senate candidate Mike Johanns received from Sen. Ted Stevens' political action committee.

Johanns spokeswoman Sarah Pompei said Wednesday that the Republican Johanns decided to give the money to the Friendship Home shortly after the Alaska senator was indicted Tuesday. He's accused of lying about accepting gifts from an oil contractor.

The Nebraska Democratic Party on Tuesday issued a news release calling for Johanns to return contributions from the Northern Lights PAC.

Everybody, it seems, but Elizabeth Dole:

OR-Sen: The DSCC has released a new ad on behalf of Senate candidate Jeff Merkley, hitting Gordon Smith for his role in enabling the Bush economy:

Merkley was also endorsed by the Oregon Independent Party, which can't hurt.

OK-Sen: Young Orange to Blue candidate Andrew Rice liveblogged at Future Majority today, sharing his thoughts on his race and on young voters:

Two years ago, when I ran for State Senate and won, I watched a wave of young progressives sweeping across the nation. I was not just watching history happen, I was part of it with all of you.

This year, however, is proving that 2006 was just a prelude to a national movement, a generational shift that makes our nation’s hope for the future incredibly bright. And once again, I’m honored to be a part of history as it happens. This wouldn't be a pivotal year without your work and your involvement, and I wouldn't be here without the support of young people in Oklahoma.

I’m running for U.S. Senate in Oklahoma in part because I’m inspired by these times. A new group of people who have grown up believing that government can be a force for good in people’s lives are working to make sure that it fulfills that mission. We’re changing our nation from the inside out, from the state house to Washington. And the need for well-qualified and hopeful people to serve in the public sphere has never been greater.

Rice has also made a couple of very big hires in Geri Prado and Phil Singer:

Rice said Geri Prado, former deputy national political and field director for the Hillary Clinton presidential campaign, has joined his staff as campaign manager.

"I'm excited to be a part of this organization," Prado said. "Andrew's story, his passion and his hard work in the State Senate are going to make him a great U.S. Senator who focuses on what is best for Oklahoma families."

Prado was Deputy Political Director for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee in the 2006 cycle when Democrats won control of the Senate. Originally from Colorado, she has worked in states like Missouri, New Mexico and Colorado at all levels of campaigns.

Rice also brought on top communications operative Phil Singer as a communications consultant.

Singer was recently the Deputy Communications Director for Hillary Clinton for President and previously worked for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and Sen. Charles Schumer as communications director.

These are certainly high-profile additions to the campaign staff, and they speak to the legitimacy and seriousness of Rice's challenge.

House Races

NY-26: OK, the Brand New Man was pretty awful.

But Jack Davis' new radio ad/ridiculous campaign song is even worse. To the tune of "Build Me Up Buttercup", no less.

Check it out. Seriously, it's fantastic. From the Albany Project:

It's called, and I'm not making this up, "Who's Gonna Clean it Up?". It's an act of cultural ghoulism that is every bit as horrific as you probably imagine.

And when you're done, send some love to Orange to Blue candidate Jon Powers.

MI-13: No risk of losing this D+32 seat for the party, but Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick is in serious trouble in her primary. She faces State Sen. Martha Scott and Rep. Mary Waters in her race, and has a narrow, narrow lead:

Cheeks Kilpatrick's popularity has no doubt been damaged by the, er, controversial tenure of her son, Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick. One has to believe that she'd be dead in the water if she didn't have two challengers splitting the vote.

FL-13: The NRCC is run by idiots. From their own website's news section:

Rep. Vern Buchanan (R), the subject of recent news reports about alleged illicit campaign contributions in the previous cycle, on Tuesday began airing his first television spot on cable and broadcast outlets

Way to pump up your own candidates, folks. That's got to instill confidence.

IN-09: The latest poll on fall blockbuster "Hill-Sodrel IV: The Beginning of the End of the Beginning". Democratic Rep. Baron Hill leads former Republican Rep. Mike Sodrel in their fourth matchup in four cycles. According to SUSA:

Hill has had the best of it twice so far, Sodrel once. Hill should be favored, albeit slightly, until Sodrel can show a similar polling result.

MN-02, MN-06: DFL candidate Steve Sarvi won the endorsement of Minnesota's Independence Party, which should aid him slightly in his long-shot bid to upset incumbent John Kline. So did fellow Democrat Elwyn Tinklenberg, who faces down one of Congress' finest nutters, freshman Rep. Michelle Bachmann:

In a recent news release, the Sarvi campaign said that the Independence Party endorses candidates from different parties when they don't have one from their own, but the candidate must agree with at least 75 percent of the party's key issues and meet several other qualifications.

"I'm proud to have this endorsement," Sarvi said in the release, "and I look forward to having the Independence Party as an integral part of our team working for victory."

The Independence Party has also endorsed DFL candidate Elwyn Tinklenberg for the Sixth Congressional District seat now occupied by Republican Rep. Michele Bachmann.

On the web:

Orange to Blue ActBlue Page

Per the Las Vegas Review-Journal, Democratic candidate Dina Titus' internal polling numbers show her leading her Republican opponent, incumbent Rep. Jon Porter.

Titus, a state senator and 2006 gubernatorial nominee, has a four-point edge on Porter with three third-party candidates included in the poll:

Anzalone Liszt for Dina Titus. 7/23-28. Likely voters. MoE 4.4%

Without third-party candidates, the gap widens:

Best of all, the poll may actually have undersampled Democrats, as there has been a strong uptick in Democratic registration in the district this year:

Based on the way it was conducted, the new poll might underestimate Titus' support. The polling firm included equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans in its survey, but there are substantially more Democrats and Republicans in the district.

In previous elections, the district has been almost evenly split between Democrats and Republicans, with a large number of nonpartisan voters. But in recent months, Democrats have gained an advantage.

According to the Clark County Election Department, as of July 24, there were more than 25,000 more Democrats than Republicans registered to vote in the district. Of the district's voters, 44 percent are registered Democrats, 37 percent Republicans.

If Nevada Republicans thought they dodged a bullet when former Democratic candidate Robert Daskas dropped out, they are in for a nasty surprise.

File this under "most blindly presumptuous statement of the cycle".

Rep. John Shadegg, currently facing the most difficult race of his political career against Orange to Blue candidate Bob Lord, is looking past this fall's elections to Arizona's Senate race in 2010.

You know, for the seat which John McCain currently holds.

U.S. Rep. John Shadegg (R-Phoenix) is making no bones about it: He has his eye on John McCain's U.S. Senate seat.

"I see my friends in the Senate deeply engaged in fights where even in the minority you matter," said Shadegg, who won a seat in Congress in the GOP's 1994 rout but has since seen his party lose its majority. "Yeah, I could find that very interesting, very appealing."

Asked point-blank if he would take McCain's current position if given the opportunity, Shadegg responded: "Yes."

This is all predicated, of course, on Shadegg winning reelection this fall (which he well might not), and McCain winning the presidency (which he won't), and Shadegg then beating Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano (who would crush him) in the open-seat race.

Or as Trapper John puts it, this is a case of

"Guy Who's Going To Lose Planning To Lose Race For Non-Open Seat Of Guy Who's Going To Lose".

But hell, since Shadegg seems so bored with life in the House (he initially announced plans to retire in February, not coincidentally after John McCain sewed up the GOP nomination), why not slide down to the Orange to Blue page, and help Bob Lord retire Shadegg?

AK-Sen: In case you haven't heard, the longest-serving Republican in the U.S. Senate was indicted on seven counts yesterday.

Sen. Ted Stevens already faced a difficult re-election bid against Orange to Blue candidate Mark Begich, and the indictment puts Stevens in jeopardy of losing his primary, with two wealthy Republicans opposing him.

In Alaska, the news is as follows:

- Stevens has resigned from his committee appointments, but says his reelection bid will proceed "full steam ahead". Unsurprising that Stevens refuses to consider resigning, as so often happens with those who consider themselves above the law.

-