Several months ago I predicted that Obama would defeat John McCain by 15 percentage points in the popular vote due to a wide ranging set of factors that are working in Obama's favor. If you asked me a month ago if I would stand by that number, my response would be an emphatic no. Today, 15 percentage points may be in the cards. If Obama holds firm and McCain actually backs out of this debate, I'll get my 15 points.
Now here are the key talking points to highlight just in case McCain does actually back out. Note, these are my talking points.
I grew up in Long Island, NY which at the time was probably the most conservative place of any significant size in America. I still have roots there to this day and while Queens is technically Long Island (as is Brooklyn), Long Island is more commonly perceived to be Nassau County and Suffolk County. Long Island is slightly more liberal than conservative today but there was a time where it was the conservative cesspool capital of America. Ronald Reagan got almost 80% of the vote on Long Island in 1984, his highest percentage of any area of size in the entire country, more so than any Southern state.
To understand Long Island, you must understand its roots. Prior to WW II it was a rural area but then became the first major suburb with the building of the Levitt houses. In the late 40s and early 50s there was a mass exodus from cities to burbs but it was all about race. If you were black, Asian, or Hispanic, you were not allowed to buy a Levitt home. Most people who initially came to Long Island came because they didn't want to be around minorities.
For 40 years, the Republican Party has engaged in class warfare by taking money from the working poor, the middle class, the infrastructure of this country, and future generations, and then redistributing that wealth to a small number of robber barons, thieves, war profiteers, and other members of the worst generation. Now they plan to take 700 billion more. No way, no how.
Instead, I'm offering a 700 billion dollar bailout paid directly to the middle class working folks of this country. And then I'm offering another bailout of 700 billion dollars in 2010 and then a third installment in 2012. That's right, a 2.1 trillion dollar bailout to the American middle class for all the damage caused to it by Busheviks and other right wing republicans.
My 2.1 trillion dollar middle class bailout will be geared toward helping those in the greatest need. 95% of Americans will benefit and most of the benefits will go to people living in blue and purple states. Here's how the money will be generated and how it will be distributed.
About a year ago, Barack Obama announced that he was going to run for President of the United States. He put together a campaign. Obama is the chief executive of that campaign. How well you run a campaign often tells how well you will run a government.
As executive of his own campaign, Obama is responsible for employees, volunteers, advertising, accounting, rules, fundraising, information dissemination, media relations, meeting a payroll, etc... It is much harder to run a presidential campaign than it is a company like Hewlett Packard. In fact running a presidential campaign is the equivalent of running a major US corporation. (The same holds true for McCain.)
From this executive experience Barack Obama has demonstrated to Americans that he is prepared and ready to be President. Obama is organized, diligent, intelligent, meticulous, and delegates tasks well while still being able to make quick and firm decisions. He'll do the same as President.
Move on Chuck Todd, I do this much better.
In politics, imagine ranking each state from 1-50 in terms of most likely to vote Obama v. most likely to vote McCain. Think of a tug of war rope with the bandana tied in the middle with Team A all on one side and Team B all on the other with the strongest components nearest the anchor. For example, states like Vermont, Rhode Island, Hawaii, Illinois, New York, and Masschusetts would be the Obama anchors while states like Oklahoma, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Alabama, and Tennessee would be the McCain anchors. If McCain was winning Rhode Island or Obama was winning Idaho, then we'd be talking about the possibility of all 50 states going to one candidate.
As you move to the middle of the straight line from the ends, states move from definitely X to likely X to probably X to barely X. Eventually you reach the middle, that state or group of states which is the 50-50 mark. That means every state to one side goes Obama and every state to the other side goes McCain.
Day after day, somewhere in an undisclosed spiderhole in the backrooms of the McLie Express, Sarah Palin is being drilled with cliff notes and talking points on issues of foreign policy and of the world. With all apologies to dummies, Call it Foreign Policy for Dummies.
Sarah Palin does not have a clue about Iraq, Russia, Al Qaeda, terrorism, diplomacy, loose nukes, Iran, South America, or China. While she's being hidden from the press, I thought we could be kind enough to give her the cliff note version so she can parrot platitudes from the teleprompter.
Of course if she doesn't know the answer to a specific question, the questioner will be accused of trying to play, "Stump The Candidate." She'll audition for "Are You Smarter Than a Third Grader" some other time.
I've decided that I am going to write some very nasty things in this diary about John McCain. Each nasty thing I write will be either a lie, a smear, and/or way below the belt. None of it will be true but this is the Straight Talk Diary Express and I'll start off with this lie.
John McCain Eats Children's Toenails.
A couple of months ago I wrote on Daily Kos inviting Senator to join me and thousands of others at Netroots Nation in Austin so that he could answer questions from ordinary people. McCain never accepted that invitation. Thus it is John McCain's fault that I have accused him of eating children's toenails. Had John McCain shown up at the townhall style meeting in Austin, this never would have happened.
I just can't make this up. Sarah Palin does not only support witchhunts, Cheney 2008 style, she supports witchhunts 1620s style.
The story is about a sick pastor named Thomas Muthee who has engaged in the actual and violent purging of witches from towns in Africa.
Of course it takes a British newspaper to report on what ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN, the New York Times, the Washington Post and every newspaper in America should have reported on already but apparently haven't. What will we learn next?
A couple of diarists here, First Amendment and kyeo wrote diaries on this yesterday morning but in the flurry of diaries they fell off the page unnoticed. This should be played up more.
Sarah Palin and Hillary Clinton each have last names that have the same number of letters as their first names. Each of their last names end in the letter N, have 2 vowels, and an I.
Both Sarah and Hillary have 2 vowels appear in their first names and each has the letters H and R. No two vowels appear consecutively.
Both Clinton and Palin graduated from college and are married. Both live in places about the same distance away from Moscow, Russia.
I have compiled a complete list of everything else these two women have in common after the flop.
If Barack Obama or Joe Biden decided to do a sitdown
interview propaganda piece with Al Sharpton less than 2 months prior to the presidential election, the media would skewer Obama. In New York City, you can NOT become mayor of New York City as a Democrat and cater to Al Sharpton. He's the boogeyman and he's real.
Fortunately for Democrats, there are people out there like Bill O'Reilly, Rush Limbaugh, James Dobson, Michelle Malkin, Pat Robertson, Karl Rove, Ann Coulter, and Sean Hannity who Democrats should attack in the same way Republicans have attacked Al Sharpton over the years. If any Republican caters to these individuals, we simply highlight the extremism and make that person unelectable.
With Palin doing an "interview" with McCain surrogate Sean Hannity, Democratic surrogates should be out in full force attacking the McCain campaign (Yes the campaign and Palin) for going on Sean Hannity's show.
There have been several diaries here at Daily Kos that have urged that we ignore Sarah Palin and focus almost entirely on McCain. I respectfully disagree.
Instead, we should be MOSTLY focused on McCain while SIMULTANEOUSLY exposing Sarah Palin for the Ann Coulter with food wingnut she is. It is unacceptable that any major party ticket could select such a brazen extremist and cold blooded liar who comes from a 10% fringe of either the far left or the far right.
It is precisely the selection of Palin that enables us to reinforce the narratives that are John McCain.
This is a short diary to hammer home one point.
Sarah Palin supported the secessionist, unAmerican, treasonous, Alaska Independence Party (AIP) not just in 1994 or 2000 but in 2008.
Click the link to the video after the fold.