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Posting History for jncca

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UK 2015 Election: Charts and Final Thoughts
Thankfully for those of us who enjoy election data analysis, Lord Ashcroft conducted a huge telephone poll that is very similar to an exit poll, and thus we can examine the voting behavior of ...
jncca 05/14/2015 10 1 - -
Israeli Election Liveblog
Hi everyone. The Israeli election is tomorrow (March 17); polls close at 1PM Pacific (and now you East Coasters finally know what it feels to always do the math!). No idea how long results will ...
jncca 03/16/2015 46 14 - -
The 2015 UK Election, Projected and Mapped
What's that, you say? The 2015 UK election hasn't happened yet? Well, it's happening soon, May to be exact, and thankfully for us there is a website called Electoral Calculus which posts ...
jncca 02/09/2015 85 49 1 -
What the Hell is Happening Over There? A Guide to Israel's Upcoming Elections
Israel's politics are complicated, to say the least. They're also absolutely fascinating. Luckily for those of us who love to discuss elections, one is coming up quite soon, on March 17 to be exact.
jncca 01/04/2015 49 30 2 -
For All the Marbles: My Final Race Ratings of 2014 (with a few maps thrown in)
Well, it's that time again. On Tuesday, everybody will vote, and that means that I need to put myself out there again with some predictions. Last time around, I did quite well. I messed up only ...
jncca 11/02/2014 20 7 1 -
Race Ratings 3.0: Two Weeks Out
Well, it's time for another installment of my race ratings. Here we go! I will put previous ratings in parentheses, with my September ratings first and my August ratings second Tilt = 60% chance ...
jncca 10/20/2014 3 1 - -
Where are the Winnable Voters for Each Party: A Comprehensive Look
What factors cause areas to vote in a certain manner? Inherently we know some of them. But we cannot completely project elections based on one factor alone. After all, the state with the largest ...
jncca 09/29/2014 37 28 - -
Race Ratings, Take 2: 6 Weeks Out
I made a batch of previous race ratings about a month and a half ago. While the landscape has not changed drastically, there have been some major shifts. In this diary, I will briefly recap my ...
jncca 09/18/2014 10 1 - -
2014 Race Ratings: Senate, Governors, and House
In 2012, my race ratings were stellar but not perfect: I blew one state in the presidential race (Florida), one Senate race (Montana), and a dozen House races, although I had the Democrats gaining 8 ...
jncca 08/10/2014 40 6 1 -
Seismic Shifts, 1992 to 2008: The Northeast
In Part 1 of this diary series (, I looked at the changes in raw vote totals between 1992 and 2008 in the South.
jncca 06/15/2014 24 29 - -
Seismic Shifts, 1992 to 2008: The South
The Clinton coalition and the Obama coalition both led to electoral college landslides, but with some very different states. Clinton twice triumphed in Arkansas, Missouri, Louisiana, Kentucky, ...
jncca 05/19/2014 11 29 - -
California's White Voters, By County
We all know California, never a lily-white state to start with, has rapidly diversified over the last generation. But California's White vote is far from monolithic. It's not easy task to figure ...
jncca 04/28/2014 31 23 3 -
A Fair Map of Washington
After a visit to Washington over spring break, I wanted to try my best to draw a COI map of the state, which I don't believe I've seen drawn before. I believe my effort was fair. My guidelines: 1)
jncca 04/06/2014 39 3 - -
Want To Know How Blue An Area Is? Look At Public Transit
The title of this diary may seem intuitive. Liberal areas elect liberals. Liberals like public transit, both for economic and environmental reasons. Conservative areas don't elect liberals. ...
jncca 03/12/2014 25 12 - -
2004 vs. 2012: The Great Plains
This is part 3 of my installment on the changes between 2004 and 2012 in various states. In Part 1 , I examined Virginia, North Carolina, and Colorado, while in Part 2 I looked at Georgia and ...
jncca 03/03/2014 14 15 1 -
What If We Used 1990s District Lines Forever?: An Alternate History
The following diary is an alternate history. There are two ground rules: 1) As with the 1920 Census, the 2000 reapportionment did not occur, nor did the one in 2010. 2) No districts were altered ...
jncca 02/16/2014 14 9 2 -
2004 vs 2012: Florida and Georgia
In the first part of this series,, I explored the causes of Democratic trends in Colorado, ...
jncca 01/25/2014 65 26 - -
2004 vs 2012 in Maps: Colorado, North Carolina, and Virginia
I love maps, especially ones of election results. They fascinate me, and in fact are the reason I started following politics around the 2004 presidential election. However, too often they're just ...
jncca 01/07/2014 8 18 1 -
Fair Map of Wisconsin
I like this map because it's fair both in terms of respecting Wisconsin's purple-ness by creating lots of swing districts and because each district makes sense geographically and for the most part ...
jncca 05/11/2013 17 4 - -
To Create a More Perfect California: What California's Redistricting Commission Should Have Drawn
California's redistricting commission was a grand experiment that, by and large, turned out to be successful. However, I think there were some errors in the map, and I wanted to redraw the state. ...
jncca 05/06/2013 58 18 - -
21st Century Orange County: A Walk-Through
Orange County is one of the few counties in America that conjures up a stereotype almost anywhere in the country. To some, it's beautiful beaches. To others, it's the heart of Cold War-era ...
jncca 03/29/2013 68 24 3 -
How Could Anyone Vote Romney-Baldwin? 2012 Presidential and Senate Comparisons, Part 2
In Wisconsin, Tammy Baldwin overcame fears by many that she would be too liberal for the state, aided by Tommy Thompson's weak campaign partially stemming from a very competitive 3-way primary ...
jncca 02/16/2013 31 11 - -
Who Were the Obama-Allen Voters? 2012 Senate and Presidential Comparisons, Part One
On Daily Kos Elections, many commentators throughout the summer and fall assumed Tim Kaine would outperform Barack Obama's total in Virginia. This turned out to be true. However, commentators also ...
jncca 02/12/2013 17 14 - -
8-4-1 North Carolina
This is my newest stab at an alternate (Democratic) gerrymander of North Carolina, one of my favorite states to redistrict. 1st: GK Butterfield (D) Partisan Stats: D+13, 68% Dem Avg Racial Stats: ...
jncca 12/20/2012 6 3 - -
Georgia Cleanish 8-6 Dem Map
Here we go. This is hypothetical, of course. 1st District: Jack Kingston (R) ...
jncca 12/08/2012 9 4 1 -
Pollster Analysis: 2012 State Polls
I know Nate Silver had something similar to this, but I wanted to do my own pollster analysis. Each poll here is taken October 15 or later, because the state of the race stabilized around then ...
jncca 12/01/2012 5 4 - -
Predictions: The House
I know there's a rule about clogging the diary bar, but there are sooo few prediction diaries. Here's mine for the House. Double Digit Races: AR-4, NC-11, and NC-13: We can welcome Tom Cotton, ...
jncca 11/05/2012 12 6 - -
Predictions and Key Counties for Election Night
There are going to be two parts of this diary; Benchmarks and Race Predictions. I’m going to be doing President, Senate, Governor, AND House (House is Part 2, though). So please read through it ...
jncca 11/04/2012 21 6 1 -
Senate and Governor Predictions with Margins
This isn't quite my last round of predictions (I'll do one the weekend before Election Day), but this is what I have right now. I'm not going to predict margins on Safe races. Senate unless ...
jncca 10/19/2012 70 41 2 -
California's Districts: Downballot and Proposition 8 Numbers and Analysis
I decided to look not just at Presidential numbers, but also Gubernatorial, Senatorial, and Social Issues (as measured by Prop. 8 from 2008). California's PVI is about D+8, so I normalized ...
jncca 10/13/2012 25 7 1 -
Early Retirement Predictions for 2014
I have to write this diary prior to Election Day, because retirements start pretty soon after. What I'm going to do is rank every Senator's likelihood of retirement from 1 (no chance) to 5 (almost ...
jncca 10/07/2012 87 9 - 377
House Elections, Six Weeks Out
With a possible mini-wave building, here are my predictions for the House. I'm only calling races Safe, Lean, Tilt, or Tossup. Likely has no use this close to Election Day. Parentheses are my ...
jncca 09/23/2012 23 6 - 264
2008 vs. 2012: PVI Shifts
I decided to look at the 538 rankings and see how the PVIs of states will change compared to 2008 if everything remains the same. This means they are not my predictions. I'm excluding Alaska, ...
jncca 08/27/2012 27 3 - 228
Ohio Redistricting: Boehner's Dilemma
I decided to try drawing Ohio. I stuck to COI as best as I could, but made some tweaks based on competitiveness. I'll explain as I go along. 1st: Steve Chabot (R) vs. Fmr. Rep. Steve Dreihaus (D) ...
jncca 08/26/2012 11 4 - 265
Time for Some Ratings! Senate and Governor, Take 2
With primary season nearly over, I'm doing an update to my Senate and Gubernatorial Rankings (with my two old rankings' diaries' ratings in parentheses). Safe = 16 point lead or greater Likely = 12 ...
jncca 08/14/2012 15 3 1 157
4-2 Democratic Louisiana
We're never going to have the trifecta here again, but this would be an awesome map. It's also my belief, although obviously courts may rule against me, that LA losing a seat means it is no longer ...
jncca 05/26/2012 15 7 1 200
Views on Gay Marriage in the Democratic Caucus: A Brief Primer
With President Obama's announcement that he now support gay marriage (again), I decided to look at a couple things. 1) What are House and Senate Democrats' views on gay marriage and civil unions? 2)
jncca 05/10/2012 73 8 - 259
Fair Pennsylvania
For those who haven't read my hypothetical redistricting diaries before, my definition of fair is the following: 1) Don't combine rural and non-rural areas unless required 2) Don't combined ...
jncca 05/04/2012 11 2 - 104
French Election Results Map
It's tough to approximate a 2-party system onto the French election. So what I did was add up the totals of Hollande and Melanchon (two major leftist candidates) and create a "Cook PVI" for each ...
jncca 04/22/2012 39 26 - 414
Predictions 2012: The House
So it's time for my House projections. SaoMagnifico already did one, but I'd like to do one anyway. First, from reapportionment, the Republicans gained 2 seats, if I calculated correctly. That's ...
jncca 04/17/2012 92 7 1 519
2012 Election Preview with Ratings!
I've decided to finally write a ratings diary for President, Governor, Senate, and House (House will be in Part 2) President: Safe Democratic: 182 EV Likely Democratic: New Mexico, Michigan, ...
jncca 04/13/2012 27 2 - 190
More than Matheson: A Democratic Path Back to Relevance in Utah's State Senate
I decided that Utah Democrats, if they hypothetically controlled the State Senate, which possibly won't happen in my entire lifetime, would decide to draw as many swing seats as possible rather than ...
jncca 04/03/2012 21 3 - 140
Why Bachmann's District is Un-Holdable
Inspired by user bjssp, I've decided to do a diary on why Michele Bachmann's district, while winnable against her, is not a district we can hold in the future. First, her district:
jncca 01/25/2012 33 6 - 388
Meet Virginia: 8-3 Democratic in Good Years
I feel like I've finally perfected my Virginia gerrymander, completed in the waning hours of 2011 (BEFORE I left for a party, I do have a life thank you very much)
jncca 01/01/2012 5 5 - 140
Upstate New York: COI Map
The goal here was simple: avoid studying for my sociology final. Beyond that, the goal was: Buffalo seat Rochester seat Syracuse seat 2 Western New York non Buffalo seats North Country seat Albany ...
jncca 12/16/2011 16 3 1 113
A Guess at New Jersey
This map, if all seats were open, would be a 6 D 4 R 2 T map. It combines Garrett and Rothman, which is what's coming out of the rumor mill.
jncca 12/09/2011 19 1 - 165
Going for Broke: Democratic Ohio
I decided to put my party in charge for Ohio's redistricting in this map. Objectives: give every incumbent a safe district (easy enough to do when there are so few remaining). I managed to cram ...
jncca 12/04/2011 24 15 - 219
Unicameral California Legislature, Part Two
Part one is here:
jncca 12/02/2011 11 2 - 76
Unicameral California Legislature: Part One
In my opinion, all legislatures should be unicameral, but since I live in California, this is the one I drew. It had 120 seats, which is still lower than I'd probably want, but isn't terrible. For ...
jncca 11/28/2011 22 2 - 155
Drawing a Progressive Massachusetts
The goals of this map: 1) Strengthen the weakest incumbents: McGovern, Keating 2) Keep Richard Tisei out of Congress 3) Get rid of Stephen Lynch 4) Get rid of John Tierney 5) Give every other ...
jncca 11/19/2011 27 1 - 137
9-4 North Carolina
Psychicpanda's 10-3 map inspired this, but I wanted to do something that wouldn't look too ugly (except for two districts) and would keep every incumbent Democrat safe, except perhaps Mel Watt in a ...
jncca 11/15/2011 19 3 - 128
Courts but No VRA: Louisiana
I tried to create one New Orleans seat, one Baton Rouge seat, one Cajun seat, and three others to fit in the gaps. I think I did pretty well.
jncca 11/10/2011 6 - - 114
Opportunity at a Mississippi Majority
Until this last decade, Mississippi had five districts. I decided to see what would happen if I drew a COI map where Mississippi still had five districts, followed by a clean Dem map.
jncca 11/04/2011 6 1 - 120
MO Democrats? Yes Please! A Democratic Missouri
I originally tried for 5-2-1, but it just wasn't in the cards. Get it? Good. My goals were as follows: all Dem seats at least D+2.5 or so, don't split St Louis City more than once, keep towns/...
jncca 11/02/2011 50 2 - 222
Playing it Safe in Tennessee
If the Republicans decide not to screw with Jim Cooper and just do incumbent protection (which is possible but probably unlikely) this would be the best way to do it. I tried to keep it compact ...
jncca 10/30/2011 10 4 - 145
Rethinking the Battlegrounds
We know that PVI doesn't always match up with a state's lean (look at WV for an example). I decided to see what would happen if, instead of using PVI, we were to look at a modified version of ...
jncca 10/10/2011 26 5 - 156
Nevada: One Can Dream
I decided that, with Nevada redistricting in a total clusterfuck, I should try a not too gerrymandered map of the state that would be 3-1 for now but possibly 4-0 later in the decade. I also ...
jncca 10/06/2011 7 2 - 131
A Non-Partisan Arizona
Goals for the Arizona map: 1) Adhere to the VRA -keep Pastor's district at 2:1 Hispanic/White ratio -disregard incumbency. This was easy because I don't know the residence of ...
jncca 10/03/2011 19 1 - 149
Mid-Decade in Minnesota
Minnesota is not a state that likes to draw contorted districts. I followed a few major guidelines 1) Don't split Minneapolis or St. Paul 2) Don't draw anything gross-looking 3) Keep Peterson in ...
jncca 09/27/2011 14 2 - 137
My Favorite Maryland Map
One of the things Republicans complain about is how ugly Maryland's map this past decade was. And they have a point: it's probably the ugliest map drawn in any state over the last ten years. With ...
jncca 09/24/2011 57 10 1 499
Proof America is More Polarized than Last Generation
People often talk about polarization. How America used to be good and bipartisan, with Democrats like Strom Thurmond and Republicans like Jacob Javits. Notwithstanding the fact that Thurmond was a ...
jncca 09/19/2011 45 5 - 230
Court-Drawn Ohio
This is my idea of what a COI court-drawn map of Ohio would look like. The tally is 9 R, 6 D, 1 T I think that's pretty fair for a GOP-leaning swing state. By the end of the decade, this could ...
jncca 09/16/2011 7 5 - 121
Prediction Time! The House
I know redistricting isn't finished yet, but I'm going to make my first House predictions. I'm only predicting which seats will flip. First, seats lost and gained through reapportionment. New ...
jncca 09/11/2011 39 - - 209
5-3-1 Indiana
I know that you can't quite make a 6-3 in Indiana, no matter how hard you try, so I went for the next best thing! This map eliminates Todd Rokita and possibly Todd Young, and gives the Dems Mike ...
jncca 09/09/2011 8 1 - 79
A 9-2-3 Michigan
This map is how Democrats can get to as many as 12 seats in Michigan out of only 14. Steps: A) Challenge VRA and make it only for compact districts, thus meaning only one is needed in Detroit (...
jncca 09/05/2011 8 2 - 112
A 149 person CA Assembly: NorCal
This is the size I believe it should be, at the least. I also ignored the VRA, since California elects minorities consistently (Cruz Bustamante, John Chiang, Kamala Harris). The final outcome of ...
jncca 08/31/2011 6 2 - 77
Which Candidates Should We Blame?
Losing candidates are nearly always blamed for their losses. If they aren't, a wave is. I'm going to look over the 2006, 2008, and 2010 elections and explore who was to blame for each. First, let'...
jncca 08/17/2011 11 6 - 127
A Female Cry for Help (SoS, Get It?)
I've been realizing more and more how many women are secretary of state vs. other statewide positions, so I decided to count it up. There are 40 states in which Governor, SoS, AG, and Treasurer are ...
jncca 08/06/2011 20 2 - 181
A Dem Wisconsin St. Sen.
If Democrats did mid-decade redistricting in Wisconsin (as likely a state as any for it to happen) here is how the state senate would turn out. I'm going to renumber, going from SE to NW.
jncca 08/04/2011 37 2 - 218
California Map: Much Better than the Last
To start, I'm gonna list my overall impression. D+3.5. Except for the numbering system and the split of lancaster, i like this map much better than the last from a COI standpoint. I'm going to go ...
jncca 07/28/2011 25 9 1 294
In Search of the Most Conservative Senate, Part One
After the 1964 elections, the US Senate was experiencing some of the most intense battles in legislative history. The Liberal Wing: Ed Bartlett, AK Birch Bayh, IN Joe Clark, PA Paul Douglas, IL ...
jncca 07/27/2011 36 5 - 174
Dems Regain Lost TN Districts
Ok, not really. But here's some hypothetical mapping for all y'all (i'm speaking tennessean) who are interested. TN-1: Phil Roe (R)
jncca 07/06/2011 9 4 1 378
Court-Drawn Wisconsin
I decided to try to draw Wisconsin as a court would. My main goals were: 1) Keep the Milwaukee area, the Kenosha-Racine area, the Madison Area, and the Green Bay area separate 2) Keep districts ...
jncca 06/15/2011 9 7 - 121
Court-Drawn Michigan
I have drawn a Michigan I believe reflects the state compactly, demographically, and politically. This map is 6D-4R-4T. If you get rid of toss-ups, it is 8D-6R, very fair for a Lean Dem state.
jncca 06/02/2011 28 2 - 121
Upstate New York: Incumbent Protection Map
This is my approximation for how a gerrymander of upstate New York would go. Ann Buerkle is eliminated and Kathy Hochul (!) is made safe. All districts are +4 or better for their party, except ...
jncca 05/26/2011 21 2 - 182
Historical Hypotheticals, Part 2
Here's part 2 of my historical hypothetical elections. The 1996 elections were a VERY slight victory for Republicans. In the Senate, there were only five seats which changed hands. The Democrats ...
jncca 05/10/2011 1 - - 55
Historical Hypotheticals: 1992-2010 Part 1
I decided to do some ridiculous hypothetical congressional races last weekend. Second semester senior-ness can be pretty awesome sometimes :) I was wondering what the effects of assuming every nat'...
jncca 05/06/2011 7 5 - 146
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