A Cubs Fan and progressive democrat. Ril also supports a lower voting voting and recognizes the importance of youth having a meaningful voice in America.
According to Real Clear Politics, AFTER Puerto Rico, Obama has a lead of 24,586, COUNTING Florida, but NOT Michigan (Nor counting the Caucuses without released popular vote totals). Totals are 17,389,253 to 17,364,667.
Yet the NBC totals, according to Chuck Todd and reiterated by Chris Matthews on Hardball, gives HILLARY a lead of 2,731 counting Florida but NOT Michigan. Totals- 17,428,541 to 17,425,810.
Why the difference. What is NBC counting that Realclear Politics isn't, or vice-versa.
Let me start by saying I am a HUGE Obama supporter. I started supporting him as soon as he entered the race in early 2007. My previous diaries will attest to this. I made calls for him in Iowa, New Hampshire and elsewhere, and went door to door for him in Pennsylvania. I am no "concern troll."
I am writing because I feel Obama made a serious strategic mistake in the past month, after running an incredibly strong campaign through the rest of the primaries.
Obama learned early on that campaigning counts. Obama built strong organizations in caucus states and made sure to visit these locations several times. Hillary ignored these states, and Obama racked up enormous vote margins and delegate totals as a result. Yet after Obama's thrilling North Carolina blowout and near Indiana win, his campaign made a significant mistake. (explained below the fold).
Much of the assessment of the Obama campaign has been focused on where he stands in polls against McCain in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida.
Recent polls show him leading in Pennsylvania and Ohio but trailing in Florida. The press seems to think that Obama is toast if he can't win one or two of the three states.
I believe that Obama will almost certainly win Pennsylvania (RCP Avg Obama +5.8%) and will likely win Ohio (Obama +1.3%) (but will likely lose Florida (McCain +8.3%). For information on the RCP averages, go to http://www.realclearpolitics.com/...
However, Obama CAN win the White House without ANY of these three states.
And in fact, recent polls suggest a clear path to victory WITHOUT these three.
How he does this, with relevant polls, below the fold.
My wife, and I canvassed a Philadelphia neighborhood earlier this morning. It was a neighborhood in West Philadelphia, predominately African American. Here are my impressions.
GREAT enthusiasm. We saw two separate trucks with loudspeakers traveling the neighborhood in support of Obama. We saw numerous Obama signs, and not one Hillary sign! Overall, many people had already voted. While we were targeting Obama supporters, we found plenty of their neighbors voicing their support for Senator Obama (the only exceptions were one couple that refused to talk to me, saying they were "neutral" and some kids that said their family was for Hillary).
A limited sample, but an encouraging one! I only wish we could have taken photos.
Okay everyone. I got my lap top working in this coffee shop. Can't type long (battery low and have to meet my wife and daughter). We are down here for the next week and want to help!
Here are a few questions!
Where can we find Obama tshirts in Philly (campaign has NONE!)
Where are the BEST places to help out tomorrow and Tuesday? What MOST needs doing?
What is everyone thinking. I have seen a LOT more Obama yard signs here, but I have mostly been in progressive areas.
We want to help, so guide us on what most needs doing! Have to run, my battery is running out.
This really angers me. Candy Lightner, founder of Mothers Against Drunk Driving (MADD) attacked the soldiers who are stuck fighting this appalling war.
Criticizing efforts to lower the drinking age, so that soldiers who fight and die have the right to have a measly beer, she said
"It [the brain of 18-year-olds] isn't developed, and that's exactly
why the draft age is 18, because these kids are malleable. They will
follow the leader, they don't think for themselves and they are the
last ones I want to say 'here's a gun, and here's a beer'. They are
not adults that's why they're in the military. They are not adults."
I was so fed up with the crap of this campaign, that I wanted to stop it entirely for a week. But I didn't stop at campaign news, I stopped reading ALL NEWS (except for weather and sports).
Trust me, this isn't easy to do. I had to avoid newspaper boxes on the street. I had to advert my eyes from the bevy of news headlines that bombard you even when you try to open your e-mail. I had to tell my family NOT to tell me any news (though my step-father mentioned some good news about the House Democrats standing up on FISA).
But generally, I have been true to my word. I tried unsuccessfully to unsubscribe to a local newspaper e-mail alert. Since I think I'm still subscribed, and I didn't receive any warnings that Martians had invaded or the Dow had hit zero, I imagine nothing REALLY BIG happened. But..... What DID Happen?
I am so tired-and upset-and depressed over this whole campaign. I don't want to hear ANYTHING about this for the next 7 days. Starting tomorrow, I will not be watching tv news, reading internet news (including Daily Kos).
I need a bit of time to focus on other things. I have even instructed family and friends not to talk about political news for the next week.
It's just e-mail checks, sports, genealogy and youth rights issues for the next week.
I want to WAKE UP on Saturday Morning, March 22, and find a different world.
On Saturday March 1st, dozens of Obama supporters held a major march and rally. We survived serious attacks and emerged triumphant. But it was not easy.
As we assembled to walk the 5 minutes between two SIMS (essentually virtual towns or neighborhoods) we noticed a tremendous lag. Then came the attacks. Individuals using weapons to blast marchers into the air and send our march off course. I found myself hit several times, eventually disappearing into the ground.
After logging off, I got back and decided to forego the march and teleport straight to our rally. That's when the billboard attacks began.
But I noticed that Obama has NOTHING on his schedule after the Rhode Island appearance at 12pm eastern. Maybe it's simply left out, and of course he needs time to fly back to where ever.
But maybe, just maybe, he has a surprise in store. Shall we say, endorsement by, oh Richardson or Edwards, or both?
I know, I know, national polls don't mean anything at this time. But still, a 16 point lead is pretty impressive. As is the fact that Obama leads head to head match ups with John McCain.
When all registered voters were asked who they favored in a head-to-head general election match up between Obama and McCain, Obama led by 12 percentage points, 50 to 38 percent.
Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton does not do so well against McCain.
In a Clinton-McCain match up, registered voters were evenly split, with 46 percent backing each candidate.
Finally, the biggest problem with Hillary is simple--people view her unfavorably.
Clinton is the only candidate of the three to have a higher unfavorable rating than favorable rating among registered voters. Thirty-five percent view the former first lady favorably, while 43 percent view her unfavorably. Obama is viewed favorably by 45 percent and unfavorably by 23 percent. McCain is viewed favorably by 36 percent and unfavorably by 32 percent.
Unfortunately for us Obama supporters, evidence points to a Clinton upset. Why?
Most polls show a very close margin (4-5 point Obama lead) with almost NO POLLING the last few dyas (late Hillary surge?)
This "scandal" thrown at Obama yesterday (sure the "plagiarizing" charges are junk--but it might affect some voters) (last minute deciders for Hillary?)
terribly cold weather may make it difficult for some students to get to the polls. Don't kid yourselves-- seniors, Hillary's contingent will vote through almost anything!
So what YOU do to stop this result? I'll tell you below the fold.
Rasmussen's latest poll has the margin at 46%-41%. He notes that Obama leads by 3 points among men but trails by trails by 11 points among women. He also notes an interesting difference in support based on whether the voter considers Iraq or the Economy to be their number one issue.
Clinton leads by seventeen points among those who consider the economy to be the top voting issue of Election 2008. Obama leads by sixteen among those who consider the War in Iraq to be the highest priority.
With the biggest primary day ever just 4 days away, Barack Obama is gaining support daily. The key now is to reach the undecided, the waivering, the leaners, and those who usually never vote.
While high-priced tv ads may sway a few, many will simply fast forward through on their TIVOs. Many people (myself included) tire of the constant phone calls. And direct mailings are so 20th Century.
People are most likely to be swayed by close FRIENDS, FAMILY, CLASSMATES and COWORKERS. People will listen to the arguments of a friend, while they will turn off a tv ad despite its impressive "focus group" appeal.
I urge EVERY Barack Obama support to contact AT LEAST 20 PEOPLE in states that will vote on February 5. With hundreds of thousands of Kossacks, we can reach MILLIONS! Some advice on how to do it and what to say below the fold.
Here's something I hope Senator Obama will highlight in tonight's debate.
There is an excelletn ABC news article up at http://abcnews.go.com/...
Essentially, during her 6 years on the Walmart board (1986-1992), Clinton failed to make ANY attempts to stop Walmart's wholesale attacks on Unions.
Here is the money quotge:
A former board member told ABCNews.com that he had no recollection of Clinton defending unions during more than 20 board meetings held in private.
The tapes show Clinton in the role of a loyal company woman. "I'm always proud of Wal-Mart and what we do and the way we do it better than anybody else," she said at a June 1990 stockholders meeting.
Hi, you don't know me. My diaries stay up for all of 10 seconds. Four years writing diaries and not one recommended. But for what it's worth, here goes.
After last night's stunning defeat, it appears our BEST case scenario is four years of Hillary being bashed continuously by the media, to be followed up by four (or maybe eight) years of our buddy Jeb Bush. Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton-Bush. What a Democracy! (Or maybe it should be What Democracy?).
So before my diary disappears into the void, let me set forth my five simple life lessons! Enjoy! Maybe one will help you cope with yesterday's events.
