The Ides of March are upon us (OK, they were yesterday).

Let us begin today with the state of the race as it is. The Democratic Party has two serious candidates, either of whom could well be the next president. Obama has broader appeal and a shot at winning in states that Democrats have not been able to win since 1964.

Hillary, on the other hand is a known quantity, which gives her a high floor but a lower ceiling. Whether or not you think going to foreign leaders' funerals counts as experience, many Americans do. And if the economy becomes the pivot for the election (indeed, a liquidity and dollar crisis is far from improbable), she could become November's gold standard: a safe haven for voters fleeing instability.