So today is the PA primary, and when the results come trickling in tonight, the most important question is (or should be) who nets how much delegates from this contest. This race for the nomination is decided by who gets the most delegates after all. So I thought it might be helpful to understand how the PA delegates are allocated.

Based on the statewide vote, there are 35 At-large delegates and 20 PLEO delegates allocated. The winner of the PA primary gets at least 18 At-large delegates and 10 PLEO delegates. He or she can get more based on the statewide performance.
over 50,0%: 18 At-large, 10 PLEO
over 52,5%: 18 At-large, 11 PLEO
over 52,8%: 19 At-large, 11 PLEO
over 55,7%: 20 At-large, 11 PLEO
over 57,5%: 20 At-large, 12 PLEO
over 58,6%: 21 At-large, 12 PLEO
over 61,5%: 22 At-large, 12 PLEO
over 62,5%: 22 At-large, 13 PLEO

The rest of the delegates are allocated based on the results in the Congressional Districts, they are below the flip.

Another day, another rat...

From TPM:

In a sign of further discontent among House Republicans, Roll Call is reporting that Congressman John Shadegg (R-AZ) will be announcing his retirement.

And we already have a strong candidate there, Bob Lord is running strong and raising money like hell.

Shadegg had some ethic issues, I think. Will McCain have coattails or is there an opening for Bob Lord?

After newspapers from Cleveland, Baltimore and San Antonio now comes another important endorsement from a newspaper in an upcoming primary state, the El Paso Times:

The turnout experience from Iowa and New Hampshire continues.

The Democratic Party of Nevada expects a turnout of 114,000.
Republican, with much easier caucus rules, had a turnout of round about 45,000.

Sure, the Dem caucus initiated much more interest, as most of the Republican candidates concentrated on South Carolina. Still Democrats doubled Republican turnout in a purple state, most probably a swing state in the general election.

A good Democratic year mostly means a good year for women in politics as well. In 2000, when Democrats picked up 5 seats in the Senate, there were four more women elected to the Senate Clinton, Carnahan, Cantwell, Stabenow). In fact every woman, who ran for Senate that year, won.

So as Democrats are rushing to a huge victory this year, I thought about assessing how women will do in these elections. Will there be more women in the 110th Congress after these Midterms?

I ran across this article of The Chattanooga Pulse about the Senate Race in TN and I read this quote:

Ford wants you to think he's a lawyer even though he didn't pass the bar exam.

I think this is not correct but I do not know for sure. There are no comments on this article yet, but we should correct this impression if it's wrong.

Does somebody know?

I figured that while there is much attention drawn to the Democratic efforts to win over control of both Houses of Congress, little notice is taken to the chances the Democrats have in what seems to be a good year for them to make progress in the state legislatures. I think these races should be a focus of the netroots, where their effort really can make the difference and much less money is needed to really have an impact.

I examined the Ohio state senate races here. Mister Gloom thankfully took a look at the Ohio state house races here (As there are regularly many more House seats than senate seats, this is much more work).

With Ed Rendell and Bob Casey Jr. heading the Democratic ticket this year, I liked the chances for Democrats in PA as well and looked at the state senate races here. So now I want to share my thoughts about the state house races in PA, where there should be some real opportunities for Democrats.

We all know about the various pick-up opportunities the Democrats have in congressional and gubernatorial races all around the country in the current political mood. They are on everybody's mind. In case of a Democratic wave Deomcrats should also make some progress on important state legislative races, that mostly fly under the radar. So I decided to take a look at some states and their competitive legislative races. With little information available I figured out some important factors:

*    the election results from the last general election
*    performance Bush/Kerry from 2004 (if available)
*    the results from the prospective primaries, if they have already taken place
*    fundraising information

Last time I checked the races for Ohio states senate here. Another state of great statewide opportunities seems to be PA, with the ticket being led by Gov. Rendell (against untested Lynn Swann) and Sen. candidate Bob Casey Jr. (against very unpopular Santorum). So I decided to next examine the races for the Pennsylvania state senate:

We all know about the various pick-up opportunities the Democrats have in congressional and gubernatorial races all around the country in the current political mood. They are on everybody's mind. In case of a Democratic wave Deomcrats should also make some progress on important state legislative races, that mostly fly under the radar. So I decided to take a look at some states and their competitive legislative races.

So I had to find out which races really are competitive. With little information available I figured out some important factors:

*    the election results from the last general election
*    performance Bush/Kerry from 2004 (if available)
*    the results from the prospective primaries, if they have already taken place
*    fundraising information

With the Ohio Republican Party in additional trouble and the national focus on the competitive gubernatorial and senate races, I decided to start with the races for the Ohio state senate:

In scandal-plagued Ohio, Democrats have found another challenger to a marginal GOP-seat.

Cincinnati councilman John Cranley has announced that he takes on Rep. Steve Chabot in OH-01 (Hamilton County).

link: http://news.enquirer.com/...

There is still much speculation about whether Mitt Romney runs for a second term or instead retires to run for the White House in 2008. If he really has ambitions directed to D.C., he probably should retire as it seems more and more unlikely that he could win reelection.

New poll numbers from here and here:

Numbers after the fold

I think that's a wonderful idea, as he would get creamed by John Kerry and the people of Massachusetts. They will prefer a real war hero against a proven liar and carpetbagger whose only qualification is the swift boat smear.

link: http://www.sj-r.com/sections/news/stories/44864.asp

The IL state senate has passed legislation that amends the IL Human Rights Act in order to prohibit disrimination based on sexual orientation.

Wingnut reaction after the cut

The media spin on the WA governor race is beginning to turn. The Oregonian is now urging Dino Rossi (R) to concede after "probably the closest vote in U.S. history for an office of such magnitude".

They also debunk any allegation from republicans of voter fraud or comparisons with the situation in the Ukraine.

Here's the link: http://www.oregonlive.com/editorials/oregonian/index.ssf?/base/editorial/1103806679248030.xml

the text of the editorial after the jump

We lost and we have to do better in the next cycle. Four more years of Bush are a desaster for the U.S. and the world (perhaps even more interesting for a Foreigner like me), but there is that little hope that it now can only get better. The republicans now have even less excuses for the results of their policies, from growing deficits to higher prices or backdoor or frontdoor drafts.

So what is to expect from the next election cycle? The answer of course depends on the generell political mood in 2005/2006, will Bush finally get it or will it get just worse (as everybody is expecting here)or willo OBL just help him out one more time?

But nevertheless the chances in the upcoming statewide races are differently in each state and depend largely on which candidate can be recruited by the parties. So here are my two cents on these races, but they come from Germany, so I don't consider myself to be too much informed about the political landscape. Corrections and additions are very welcome.

So here we go...

No, not nowadays, but obviously in 1974 according to a rollcall article quoted by the Stakeholder:

"Streakin' Pete. Honk if you've seen Rep. Pete Sessions naked. Or, is it nekkid? It's don't matter which way you say it, but if you lived in San Marcos, Texas, in 1974, then you're probably honking like crazy right now.
Hard to believe, but Sessions, the Texas Republican who decried Janet Jackson's Super Bowl public nudity incident in January took part in a raucous, two-night streaking rampage when he was a freshman at Southwest Texas State University in San Marcos.

Newspaper headlines blared: "Streakers Hit Campus, Several Nudes Caught" and "Dudes, Broads and Bare Bods." The papers were full of pictures of naked college boys and co-eds streaking through the streets of San Marcos, although HOH could not verify which bare bottom was Sessions.

The mass streaking, which led to a clash with police on the night of March 4, 1974, violated the university's behavior guidelines, as well as Texas law against indecent exposure.

On the first night of streaking, two Southwest Texas State University students were arrested, then hundreds of others attacked the cops and damaged a police car in protest, the San Antonio News reported. Sessions was streaking in full force the next night. He was quoted prominently in the paper the following day bragging of his prowess.

"Just taking off your clothes and running around is kind of a free spirit thing," said Sessions, who was two weeks shy of his 19th birthday and a physical education major. He would later transfer to Southwestern University."

Ahem, better do not imagine that ;-))

So, what will the people of the 32nd cd say to this? What is the state of the race to Martin Frost's reelection?

Isn't this correction cute (http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/asection/la-a2-correx5.5oct05,1,2790728.story?coll=la-news- a_section)

And to avoid a one-line, one-link diary, some cartoon for you: http://www.yubanet.com/artman/publish/article_13974.shtml

Hope you enjoy!

Some other good news in terms of voter registration from another swing state:

link: http://www.theunionleader.com/articles_showa.html?article=44845

"The number of registered voters in the state increased by 15,000 people between the January Presidential primary and the party primaries earlier this month.

According to figures released by Secretary of State Bill Gardner, independent or undeclared voters grew by about 10,000 and Democrats grew by 6,000 and Republicans lost about 100 between the two elections."

So you got it? Registered independents and democrats increased by 16,000 and registered republicans decreased (!) since the primary.

Rest below: