This diary is composed of two sections.  In the first half, I will recap some of what we know about the immense impact of media narratives in Presidential campaigns, and argue that the emergence of the recent "flip-flop" narrative on Obama has done more damage than most people realize, reducing his lead by more than 3 million votes.  In the second section, I will argue that a new narrative is forming right now, based on a fortuitous combination of inexplicable reversals on foreign policy by the Bush administration in the direction of Obama’s long-held policies at the very moment that Obama begins his high-profile trip abroad.  Now is the time for us to do what we can to spread this narrative, and if done correctly, it could potentially leave McCain in a position from which he cannot recover.

Follow me over the fold for the full argument...

This diary is a response to the an excellent diary by shpilk on yesterday’s rec list entitled "Obama and the Great Disappointment," where I wrote an obscenely long comment that was suggested should be a diary instead.  The diary has in turn become absurdly long, but it is deep and heartfelt, so I will be very appreciative of those brave souls who push on through to the end.  Here we go.

I agree with the majority of the author’s comments (especially with his/her thesis that we shouldn’t be lessening our support for Obama due to his recent "moves" on important issues).  But I disagree fundamentally with the author’s thesis that Obama is a "centrist democrat" whose recent policy "moves," while alarming, shouldn’t be so distressing because it increases the likelihood that a) Obama will win the election, and b) that the democrats will run up big margins in the down-ticket elections, providing him large majorities in Congress with which to work.

Follow me over the thread for more...

Oh yes, it's time.  It's time for us to step back and ask that question.  That question we've all been wondering but haven't gotten around to voicing yet.  In the past, there was always the rational that new votes were around the corner and that the exposure that the Democrats were garnering through a protracted contest was good free publicity for the party.

But now things are different.  There are no elections in the near future (we're speaking in political time where weeks feel like years), and the level of discourse has dissolved into increasingly personal and angry attacks that threaten the unity of the party.  Publicity is only good when it's positive.

So it's time then to ask that question, which can be phrased in any number of ways:

"What is Hillary still doing in the race when she has no reasonable chance of winning the nomination in a way that wouldn't be disastrous for the party?"

"When will Hillary drop out?"

"Why is Hillary continuing to heap praises on John McCain while attacking Obama when it is clear he will be the Democratic nominee?"

And...

"How long will it take for Hillary to wake up to the reality that she has already lost this race?"

Last night I recieved an interesting letter from my Uncle, who was a Marine in Vietnam and spent over 6 weeks at the peak of the war doing reconnaisance by finding the enemy's heavy artillerary and calling in airstrikes for those locations.  At the time, he took the assignment, the life expectancy for such positions was 2 weeks.  He made over three times that long without being killed and was eventually recalled from that duty and was later assigned to less perilous positions in the war.  The job he accepted for this nation was effectively a death sentence at the time, and yet he took it, and somehow escaped with his life.  He made sacrifices for this country that are difficult for me to comprehend, and so you can imagine my surpirse when I recieved this note from him last night in an email - (over the fold)